Commodity Price Shocks

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The Economics and Finance of Commodity Price Shocks

Author : Mikidadu Mohammed
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781032033709
Total Pages : 199 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (337 download)

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Book Synopsis The Economics and Finance of Commodity Price Shocks by : Mikidadu Mohammed

Download or read book The Economics and Finance of Commodity Price Shocks written by Mikidadu Mohammed and published by . This book was released on 2021-10 with total page 199 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The behaviour of commodity prices never ceases to marvel economists, financial analysts, industry experts, and policymakers. Unexpected swings in commodity prices used to occur infrequently but have now become a permanent feature of global commodity markets. This book is about modelling commodity price shocks. It is intended to provide insights into the theoretical, conceptual, and empirical modelling of the underlying causes of global commodity price shocks. Three main objectives motivated the writing of this book. First, to provide a variety of modelling frameworks for documenting the frequency and intensity of commodity price shocks. Second, to evaluate existing approaches used for forecasting large movements in future commodity prices. Third, to cover a wide range and aspects of global commodities including currencies, rare-hard-lustrous transition metals, agricultural, energy, and health pandemics. Some attempts have already been made towards modelling commodity price shocks. However, most tend to narrowly focus on a subset of commodity markets, i.e., agricultural commodities market and/or energy market. In this book, the author moves the needle forward by operationalizing different models, which allow researchers to identify the underlying causes and effects of commodity price shocks. Readers also learn about different commodity price forecasting models. The author presents the topics to readers assuming less prior or specialist knowledge. Thus, the book is accessible to industry analysts, researchers, undergraduate and graduate students in economics and financial economics, academic and professional economists, investors, and financial professionals working in different sectors of the commodity markets. Another advantage of the book's approach is that readers are not only exposed to several innovative modelling techniques to add to their modelling toolbox but are also exposed to diverse empirical applications of the techniques presented"--

The Economics and Finance of Commodity Price Shocks

Author : Mikidadu Mohammed
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1000485188
Total Pages : 226 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (4 download)

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Book Synopsis The Economics and Finance of Commodity Price Shocks by : Mikidadu Mohammed

Download or read book The Economics and Finance of Commodity Price Shocks written by Mikidadu Mohammed and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2021-11-25 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The behaviour of commodity prices never ceases to marvel economists, financial analysts, industry experts, and policymakers. Unexpected swings in commodity prices used to occur infrequently but have now become a permanent feature of global commodity markets. This book is about modelling commodity price shocks. It is intended to provide insights into the theoretical, conceptual, and empirical modelling of the underlying causes of global commodity price shocks. Three main objectives motivated the writing of this book. First, to provide a variety of modelling frameworks for documenting the frequency and intensity of commodity price shocks. Second, to evaluate existing approaches used for forecasting large movements in future commodity prices. Third, to cover a wide range and aspects of global commodities including currencies, rare–hard–lustrous transition metals, agricultural commodities, energy, and health pandemics. Some attempts have already been made towards modelling commodity price shocks. However, most tend to narrowly focus on a subset of commodity markets, i.e., agricultural commodities market and/or the energy market. In this book, the author moves the needle forward by operationalizing different models, which allow researchers to identify the underlying causes and effects of commodity price shocks. Readers also learn about different commodity price forecasting models. The author presents the topics to readers assuming less prior or specialist knowledge. Thus, the book is accessible to industry analysts, researchers, undergraduate and graduate students in economics and financial economics, academic and professional economists, investors, and financial professionals working in different sectors of the commodity markets. Another advantage of the book’s approach is that readers are not only exposed to several innovative modelling techniques to add to their modelling toolbox but are also exposed to diverse empirical applications of the techniques presented.

Commodity Prices and Markets

Author : Takatoshi Ito
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226386899
Total Pages : 346 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (263 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Prices and Markets by : Takatoshi Ito

Download or read book Commodity Prices and Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2011-03 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.

How Persistent Are Shocks to World Commodity Prices?

Author : Mr.Paul Cashin
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 145185028X
Total Pages : 55 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis How Persistent Are Shocks to World Commodity Prices? by : Mr.Paul Cashin

Download or read book How Persistent Are Shocks to World Commodity Prices? written by Mr.Paul Cashin and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-06-01 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the persistence of shocks to world commodity prices, using monthly IMF data on primary commodities between 1957–98. We find that shocks to commodity prices are typically long–lasting and the variability of the persistence of price shocks is quite wide. The paper also discusses the implications of these findings for national and international schemes to stabilize earnings from commodity exports and finds that if price shocks are long–lived, then the cost of stabilization schemes will likely exceed any associated smoothing benefits.

Commodity Price Shocks and Financial Sector Fragility

Author : Mr.Tidiane Kinda
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484398939
Total Pages : 48 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Price Shocks and Financial Sector Fragility by : Mr.Tidiane Kinda

Download or read book Commodity Price Shocks and Financial Sector Fragility written by Mr.Tidiane Kinda and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-02-01 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the impact of commodity price shocks on financial sector fragility. Using a large sample of 71 commodity exporters among emerging and developing economies, it shows that negative shocks to commodity prices tend to weaken the financial sector, with larger shocks having more pronounced impacts. More specifically, negative commodity price shocks are associated with higher non-performing loans, bank costs and banking crises, while they reduce bank profits, liquidity, and provisions to nonperforming loans. These adverse effects tend to occur in countries with poor quality of governance, weak fiscal space, as well as those that do not have a sovereign wealth fund, do not implement macro-prudential policies and do not have a diversified export base. These findings are robust to a battery of robustness checks.

Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks

Author : Ms.Stefania Fabrizio
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475596944
Total Pages : 86 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks by : Ms.Stefania Fabrizio

Download or read book Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks written by Ms.Stefania Fabrizio and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-06-20 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As part of its work to help low-income countries manage volatility, the IMF has developed an analytical framework for assessing vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the external environment. This paper draws on the results of the first vulnerability exercise for low-income countries conducted by the IMF staff using this new framework. It focuses on the risks of a downturn in global growth and of further global commodity price shocks and discusses related policy challenges. Chapters review recent macroeconomic developments, including the spike in global commodity prices in early 2012; assess current risks and vulnerabilities, including how a sharp downturn in global growth and further commodity price shocks would affect low-income countries; and discuss policy challenges in the face of these risks and vulnerabilities.

Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks - Vulnerabilities and Policy Challenges for Low-Income Countries

Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498338453
Total Pages : 63 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks - Vulnerabilities and Policy Challenges for Low-Income Countries by : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department

Download or read book Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks - Vulnerabilities and Policy Challenges for Low-Income Countries written by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-09-21 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As part of its work to help low-income countries (LICs) manage volatility, the IMF has recently developed an analytical framework to assess vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the external environment (see IMF, 2011a). This report draws on the results of the first Vulnerability Exercise for LICs (VE-LIC) conducted by IMF staff using this new framework. The report focuses on the risks of a downturn in global growth and of further global commodity price shocks, and discusses related policy challenges. The report is organized as follows: Chapter I reviews recent macroeconomic developments, including the spike in global commodity prices earlier this year. Chapter II assesses current risks and vulnerabilities, including how a sharp downturn in global growth and further commodity price shocks would affect LICs. Chapter III discusses policy challenges in the face of these risks and vulnerabilities.

Asymmetric Non-Commodity Output Responses to Commodity Price Shocks

Author : Mr. Amine Mati
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513573357
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Asymmetric Non-Commodity Output Responses to Commodity Price Shocks by : Mr. Amine Mati

Download or read book Asymmetric Non-Commodity Output Responses to Commodity Price Shocks written by Mr. Amine Mati and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-06-11 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper focuses on identifying potential asymmetric responses of non-commodity output growth in times of positive and negative commodity terms-of-trade shocks. Using a sample of 27 oil-exporting countries and a panel VAR method, the study finds: 1) the short-and medium-run response of real non-commodity GDP growth is larger for negative shocks than positive shocks; 2) this asymmetry is more pronounced in countries with weak pre-existing fundamentals–high levels of public debt and low levels of international reserves–which also serve to amplify the volatility of the response; 3) the output response to positive shocks is stronger following a sustained period of CTOT increases, while the impact of negative shocks on output are more damaging when they occur after a period of CTOT decline.

Commodity Prices and Markets

Author : Takatoshi Ito
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226386902
Total Pages : 346 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (263 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Prices and Markets by : Takatoshi Ito

Download or read book Commodity Prices and Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2011-02-15 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects, such as inflation and low rates of economic growth. Commodity Prices and Markets advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim. The volume addresses three distinct subjects: the difficulties in forecasting commodity prices, the effects of exogenous commodity price shocks on the domestic economy, and the relationship between price shocks and monetary policy. The ability to forecast commodity prices is difficult but of great importance to businesses and governments, and this volume will be invaluable to professionals and policy makers interested in the field.

Commodity Price Dynamics

Author : Craig Pirrong
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139501976
Total Pages : 238 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (395 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Price Dynamics by : Craig Pirrong

Download or read book Commodity Price Dynamics written by Craig Pirrong and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011-10-31 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.

Essays on the Effects of International Commodity Prices Shocks

Author : Mauricio Stern
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (139 download)

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Book Synopsis Essays on the Effects of International Commodity Prices Shocks by : Mauricio Stern

Download or read book Essays on the Effects of International Commodity Prices Shocks written by Mauricio Stern and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many emerging economies depend on commodities whose prices are volatile. High prices for these commodities naturally help those sectors related to the production of the commodities, but the economic benefits for other sectors are ambiguous. These effects can be different according to the characteristics of the sector, leading to a positive or negative sectoral effect depending on several features. Also, commodity price shocks may affect spending differently according to the characteristics of the population. A feature prevalent in many emerging economies is a low degree of banking penetration, which can affect the magnitude of commodity shocks, because banking services are related to how people save and borrow, affecting their ability to smooth spending when they face income shocks. This dissertation studies the effects of commodity price shocks in exporting economies, analyzing the overall and sectoral effects, as well as the regional effects according to access to banking services among inhabitants. The first chapter analyzes the effect of commodity price fluctuations on both overall and sectoral outcomes in a commodity-exporting economy. Using Chilean and international copper market data, I find positive copper price changes stemming from copper-specific demand shocks generate a broad GDP expansion with no visible decline in the exports of any sector, including manufacturing. These results provide evidence against the Dutch disease hypothesis involving the crowding out effect of commodity price increases on the manufacturing sector. The second chapter studies how features of a commodity-exporting economy such as the degree of substitution between domestic and foreign goods, the income effect on labor supply, and trade policy related to tariffs on imports shape overall and sectoral effects of commodity price shocks. For that, I estimate key structural parameters of a small open economy business-cycle model with 6 sectors by matching my empirical impulse responses and find that a low degree of substitution between domestic and foreign goods explains the positive sectoral effect of a commodity price shock. Then, I evaluate how tariffs on imports shape the effect of commodity price shocks and find low tariffs make the small open economy less sensitive to commodity price shocks when the elasticity of substitution between domestic goods and imports is small. The third chapter studies the relationship between access to banking services and the magnitude of external shocks. Using quarterly data of the number of checking and savings bank accounts per person as an indicator of access to banking services, I analyze the effects of commodity price changes conditional on the number of bank accounts per person across Mexican states. I find decreases in commodity prices generate a bigger contraction in total production in states with low numbers of bank accounts per person. A rise in commodity prices generates a bigger expansion of the number of formal workers as well as a wider contraction in the number of informal workers in regions with a low number of bank accounts per person

The Influence of Commodity Price Shocks on Share Prices

Author : Philipp Heilmann
Publisher : GRIN Verlag
ISBN 13 : 3656153639
Total Pages : 69 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (561 download)

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Book Synopsis The Influence of Commodity Price Shocks on Share Prices by : Philipp Heilmann

Download or read book The Influence of Commodity Price Shocks on Share Prices written by Philipp Heilmann and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2012-03-19 with total page 69 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2011 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 1,3, University of Groningen (Faculty of Economics and Business), language: English, abstract: This paper analyses the influence of commodity price shocks on companies' firm value. Two timeframes of shocks on the commodities copper, aluminium as well as two rare earth elements, neodymium and lanthanum, were studied on their effects on stock prices. Companies have been selected according to their industry, their size, country of origin and commodity exposure. Unique issues in this work are the focus on commodity price shocks and the pre- selection of companies, where the chosen commodities are assumingly key input factors. Therefore this paper attempts to shed new light on the importance of commodity price exposure for the firm value of companies.

Commodity Price Shocks and International Finance

Author : Pang-hua Kevin Chang
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 314 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (23 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Price Shocks and International Finance by : Pang-hua Kevin Chang

Download or read book Commodity Price Shocks and International Finance written by Pang-hua Kevin Chang and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Inflation Responses to Commodity Price Shocks

Author : Mr.R. Gelos
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475510241
Total Pages : 32 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation Responses to Commodity Price Shocks by : Mr.R. Gelos

Download or read book Inflation Responses to Commodity Price Shocks written by Mr.R. Gelos and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-09-01 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper relates the inflationary impact of commodity price shocks across countries to a broad range of structural characteristics and policy frameworks over the period 2001-2010, using several approaches. The analysis suggests that economies with higher food shares in CPI baskets, fuel intensities, and pre-existing inflation levels were more prone to experience sustained inflationary effects from commodity price shocks. Countries with more independent central banks and higher governance scores seem to have contained the impact of these shocks better. The effect of the presence of inflation targeting regimes, however, appears very modest and not evident during the 2008 food price shock.The evidence suggests that trade openness, financial development, dollarization, and labor market flexibility do not significantly influence the way in which domestic inflation responds to international commodity price shocks.

Commodity Price Shocks and Fiscal Outcomes

Author : Mr.Nicola Spatafora
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475558872
Total Pages : 75 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Price Shocks and Fiscal Outcomes by : Mr.Nicola Spatafora

Download or read book Commodity Price Shocks and Fiscal Outcomes written by Mr.Nicola Spatafora and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-05-01 with total page 75 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The experience of developing countries over 1990-2010 indicates that commodity prices have a significant impact on fiscal outcomes. Both revenue and expenditure rise in response to commodity (import or export) price increases; the response of the fiscal deficit is ambiguous. A floating exchange rate regime only partially offsets the impact; foreign-exchange reserves do not dampen the effects. Hence, there is a strong case for fiscal hedging against commodity price shocks. Hedging instruments based on a limited set of benchmark world prices for a narrow set of commodities may suffice to realize most of the potential benefits.

The Adjustment to Commodity Price Shocks in Chile, Colombia, and Peru

Author : Mr.Francisco Roch
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484323882
Total Pages : 25 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis The Adjustment to Commodity Price Shocks in Chile, Colombia, and Peru by : Mr.Francisco Roch

Download or read book The Adjustment to Commodity Price Shocks in Chile, Colombia, and Peru written by Mr.Francisco Roch and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-09-29 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a comparative analysis of the macroeconomic adjustment in Chile, Colombia, and Peru to commodity terms-of-trade shocks. The study is done in two steps: (i) an analysis of the impulse responses of key macroeconomic variables to terms-of-trade shocks and (ii) an event study of the adjustment to the recent decline in commodity prices. The experiences of these countries highlight the importance of flexible exchange rates to help with the adjustment to lower commodity prices, and staying vigilant in addressing depreciation pressures on inflation through tightening monetary policies. On the fiscal front, evidence shows that greater fiscal space, like in Chile and Peru, gives more room for accommodating terms-of-trade shocks.

International Commodity Price Shocks, Democracy, and External Debt

Author : Mr.Rabah Arezki
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451963424
Total Pages : 24 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (519 download)

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Book Synopsis International Commodity Price Shocks, Democracy, and External Debt by : Mr.Rabah Arezki

Download or read book International Commodity Price Shocks, Democracy, and External Debt written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-03-01 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the effects that international commodity price shocks have on external debt using panel data for a world sample of 93 countries spanning the period 1970-2007. Our main finding is that positive commodity price shocks lead to a significant reduction in the level of external debt in democracies, but to no significant reduction in the level of external debt in autocracies. To explain this result, we show that positive commodity price shocks lead to a statistically significant and quantitatively large increase in total government expenditures in autocracies. In democracies on the other hand government expenditures did not increase significantly. We also document that following positive windfalls from international commodity price shocks the risk of default on external debt decreased in democracies, but increased significantly in autocracies.