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Climate Model Uncertainty In Impact Assessments For Agriculture
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Book Synopsis Climate Model Uncertainty in Impact Assessments for Agriculture by :
Download or read book Climate Model Uncertainty in Impact Assessments for Agriculture written by and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Almost 25 percent of the world's malnourished population lives in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and depends on maize (corn) for much of its caloric intake. The most widely produced crop by harvested area in SSA, maize is also highly sensitive to drought. Because maize in this region is grown largely on rain-fed rather than irrigated land, any future changes in precipitation patterns due to climate change could significantly impact crop yields. Assessing the likely magnitude and locations of such yield changes in the coming decades will be critical for decision-makers seeking to help their nations and regions adapt to climate change and minimize threats to food security and rural economies that are heavily dependent on agriculture. Toward that end, a team of five researchers with the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change has applied a broad range of multi- and individual climate model ensembles to project climate-related changes to maize yields throughout most of the 21st century. Accounting for uncertainty in climate model parameters--which is pronounced in high-producing semiarid zones--the researchers project widespread yield losses in the Sahel region and Southern Africa, insignificant change in Central Africa, and sub-regional increases in East Africa and at the southern tip of the continent. The wide range of results highlights a need for risk management strategies that are adaptive and robust to uncertainty, such as the diversification of rural economies beyond the agricultural sector. The results appear in the early online edition of the journal Earth's Future. Funded by MIT's Abdul Latif Jameel World Water and Food Security Lab as a two-year project, "Advancing Water and Food Sustainability through Improved Understanding of Uncertainties in Climate Change and Climate Variability," the study's principal investigators are Susan Solomon, Lee and Geraldine Martin Professor of Environmental Studies in the Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences; and Kenneth Strzepek, research scientist in the MIT Joint Program.
Book Synopsis Handbook Of Climate Change And Agroecosystems: The Agricultural Model Intercomparison And Improvement Project (Agmip) Integrated Crop And Economic Assessments — Joint Publication With Asa, Cssa, And Sssa (In 2 Parts) by : Daniel Hillel
Download or read book Handbook Of Climate Change And Agroecosystems: The Agricultural Model Intercomparison And Improvement Project (Agmip) Integrated Crop And Economic Assessments — Joint Publication With Asa, Cssa, And Sssa (In 2 Parts) written by Daniel Hillel and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2015-02-13 with total page 1159 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “Top agricultural scientists from around the world have taken up the challenge of sustainable agriculture, with the specific focus on integrating agronomic, climatological, biophysical and socio-economic perspectives and processes. Every chapter (of the Handbook) contributes to addressing the growing food-security challenges facing the world.”Foreword by Jeffrey Sachs, Director of the Earth Institute at Columbia UniversityClimate effects on agriculture are of increasing concern in both the scientific and policy communities because of the growing population and the greater uncertainty in the weather during growing seasons. Changes in production are directly linked to variations in temperature and precipitation during the growing season and often to the offseason changes in weather because of soil water storage to replenish the soil profile. This is not an isolated problem but one of worldwide interest because each country has concerns about their food security.The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) was developed to evaluate agricultural models and intercompare their ability to predict climate impacts. In sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, South America and East Asia, AgMIP regional research teams (RRTs) are conducting integrated assessments to improve understanding of agricultural impacts of climate change (including biophysical and economic impacts) at national and regional scales. Other AgMIP initiatives include global gridded modeling, data and information technology (IT) tool development, simulation of crop pests and diseases, site-based crop-climate sensitivity studies, and aggregation and scaling.
Book Synopsis Uncertainties in Agricultural Impact Assessments of Climate Change by :
Download or read book Uncertainties in Agricultural Impact Assessments of Climate Change written by and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts by : Karl W. Steininger
Download or read book Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts written by Karl W. Steininger and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-02-26 with total page 473 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume deals with the multifaceted and interdependent impacts of climate change on society from the perspective of a broad set of disciplines. The main objective of the book is to assess public and private cost of climate change as far as quantifiable, while taking into account the high degree of uncertainty. It offers new insights for the economic assessment of a broad range of climate change impact chains at a national scale. The framework presented in the book allows consistent evaluation including mutual interdependencies and macroeconomic feedback. This book develops a toolbox that can be used across the many areas of climate impact and applies it to one particular country: Austria.
Author :Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Publisher :Food & Agriculture Org. ISBN 13 :9789251044704 Total Pages :100 pages Book Rating :4.0/5 (447 download)
Book Synopsis Two Essays on Climate Change and Agriculture by : Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Download or read book Two Essays on Climate Change and Agriculture written by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and published by Food & Agriculture Org.. This book was released on 2000 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Agriculture and climate changes are closely linked. Agriculture has a significant impact on the process of climate change. There is uncertainty surrounding the implications of climate change for agricultural production. This document consists of two studies on this relationship. The first study provides an analysis of the various methodologies that have been used to measure the potential impacts of climate change on agricultural production and makes suggestions for further research. The second study is on the impact of agriculture on climate. It gives a detailed analysis of the potential for implementing the Clean Development Mechanism proposed under the Kyoto Protocol Convention on Climate Change in the agricultural sector of developing countries along with the relevant policy implications and requirements
Book Synopsis Reducing the Vulnerability of Georgia's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change by : Nicolas Ahouissoussi
Download or read book Reducing the Vulnerability of Georgia's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change written by Nicolas Ahouissoussi and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2014-05-13 with total page 139 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The impacts of climate change on agricultural systems and rural economies are already evident throughout Europe and Central Asia. This study, Reducing the Vulnerability of Georgia s Agricultural Systems to Climate Change, provides a menu of options for climate change adaptation in the agricultural and water resources sectors in Georgia.
Author :Gerald C. Nelson, Mark W. Rosegrant, Amanda Palazzo, Ian Gray, Christina Ingersoll, Richard Robertson, Simla Tokgoz, Tingju Zhu, Timothy B. Sulser, Claudia Ringler, Siwa Msangi, and Liangzhi You Publisher :Intl Food Policy Res Inst ISBN 13 :0896291863 Total Pages :155 pages Book Rating :4.8/5 (962 download)
Book Synopsis Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050 by : Gerald C. Nelson, Mark W. Rosegrant, Amanda Palazzo, Ian Gray, Christina Ingersoll, Richard Robertson, Simla Tokgoz, Tingju Zhu, Timothy B. Sulser, Claudia Ringler, Siwa Msangi, and Liangzhi You
Download or read book Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050 written by Gerald C. Nelson, Mark W. Rosegrant, Amanda Palazzo, Ian Gray, Christina Ingersoll, Richard Robertson, Simla Tokgoz, Tingju Zhu, Timothy B. Sulser, Claudia Ringler, Siwa Msangi, and Liangzhi You and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2010-01-01 with total page 155 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the global population grows and incomes in poor countries rise, so too, will the demand for food, placing additional pressure on sustainable food production. Climate change adds a further challenge, as changes in temperature and precipitation threaten agricultural productivity and the capacity to feed the world's population. This study assesses how serious the danger to food security might be and suggests some steps policymakers can take to remedy the situation.Using various modeling techniques, the authors project 15 different future scenarios for food security through 2050. Each scenario involves an alternative combination of potential population and income growth and climate change. The authors also examine the specific test case of a hypothetical extended drought in South Asia, to demonstrate the possible effects of increased climate variability on a particular world region. They conclude that the negative effects of climate change on food security can be counteracted by broad-based economic growthparticularly improved agricultural productivityand robust international trade in agricultural products to offset regional shortages. In pursuit of these goals, policymakers should increase public investment in land, water, and nutrient use and maintain relatively free international trade. This inquiry into the future of food security should be of use to policymakers and others concerned with the impact of climate change on international development.
Book Synopsis Adapting to Climate Uncertainty in African Agriculture by : Stephen Whitfield
Download or read book Adapting to Climate Uncertainty in African Agriculture written by Stephen Whitfield and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2015-08-20 with total page 222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Future climatic and agro-ecological changes in Africa are uncertain and associated with high degrees of spatial and temporal variability and this change is differently simulated within divergent climate-crop models and in controlled crop breeding stations. Furthermore, uncertainty emerges in local contexts, not just in response to climatic systems, but to social, economic, and political systems, and often with implications for the appropriateness and adoption of technologies or the success of alternative cropping systems. This book examines the challenges of adaptation in smallholder farming in Africa, analysing the social, economic, political and climatic uncertainties that impact on agriculture in the region and the range of solutions proposed. Drawing on case studies of genetically modified crops, conservation agriculture, and other 'climate smart' solutions in eastern and southern Africa, the book identifies how uncertainties are framed 'from above' as well experienced 'from below', by farmers themselves. It provides a compelling insight into why ideas about adaptation emerge, from whom, and with what implications. This book offers a unique perspective and will be highly relevant to students of climate change adaptation, food security and poverty alleviation, as well as policy-makers and field practitioners in international development and agronomy.
Book Synopsis Preliminary Guidelines for Assessing Impacts of Climate Change by : Timothy R. Carter
Download or read book Preliminary Guidelines for Assessing Impacts of Climate Change written by Timothy R. Carter and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Crop Yields and Climate Change to the Year 2000: without special title by :
Download or read book Crop Yields and Climate Change to the Year 2000: without special title written by and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 172 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Projecting Climate Model Uncertainties Into the Impact Domain by : M. Nakken
Download or read book Projecting Climate Model Uncertainties Into the Impact Domain written by M. Nakken and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Publisher :Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development ; [Washington, D.C. : OECD Publications and Information Centre ISBN 13 : Total Pages :120 pages Book Rating :4.:/5 (318 download)
Book Synopsis Climate Change by : Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Download or read book Climate Change written by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and published by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development ; [Washington, D.C. : OECD Publications and Information Centre. This book was released on 1991 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems by : Daniel Hillel
Download or read book Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems written by Daniel Hillel and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2011 with total page 453 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The portending process of climate change, induced by the anthropogenic accumulations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, is likely to generate effects that will cascade through the biosphere, impacting all life on earth and bearing upon human endeavors. Of special concern is the potential effect on agriculture and global food security. Anticipating these effects demands that scientists widen their field of vision and cooperate across disciplines to encompass increasingly complex interactions. Trans-disciplinary cooperation should aim to generate effective responses to the portending changes, including actions to mitigate the emissions of greenhouse gases and to adapt to those climate changes that cannot be avoided. This handbook presents an exposition of current research on the impacts, adaptation, and mitigation of climate change in relation to agroecosystems. It is offered as the first volume in what is intended to be an ongoing series dedicated to elucidating the interactions of climate change with a broad range of sectors and systems, and to developing and spurring effective responses to this global challenge. As the collective scientific and practical knowledge of the processes and responses involved continues to grow, future volumes in the series will address important aspects of the topic periodically over the coming years.
Book Synopsis Crop Yields and Climate Change to the Year 2000: Climate model and technical appendixes by :
Download or read book Crop Yields and Climate Change to the Year 2000: Climate model and technical appendixes written by and published by . This book was released on 1972 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Issues in the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Agriculture by : Linda O. Mearns
Download or read book Issues in the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Agriculture written by Linda O. Mearns and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 218 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a collection of articles concerning key topics which examine the impacts of climate change and variability on agriculture. The application region is the southeastern United States. The main topics include an investigation of the effect of variations in the spatial scale of climate change scenarios on an agricultural integrated assessment, methods of simulating adaptations of climate change, and the relationship between large scale climate variability and local climate and vegetation. This book will be very useful for researchers and policy makers involved in climate change impacts.
Book Synopsis Handbook on Climate Change and Agriculture by : Ariel Dinar
Download or read book Handbook on Climate Change and Agriculture written by Ariel Dinar and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2011-01-01 with total page 532 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ô. . . this book is a very useful resource for the lawyer. . . makes a good start by presenting a wide-ranging portfolio of multidisciplinary research that will assist in progressing the task, challenging though it may be.Õ Ð Chris Rodgers, Environmental Liability This book explores the interaction between climate change and the agriculture sector. Agriculture is essential to the livelihood of people and nations, especially in the developing world; therefore, any impact on it will have significant economic, social, and political ramifications. Scholars from around the world and from various fields have been brought together to explore this important topic. The contributions found here analyze direct agronomic effects, the economic impacts on agriculture, agricultural impacts on the economy, agricultural mitigation, and farmer adaptation. The authors argue that climate change is likely to have an extensive impact on agriculture around the world through changes in temperature, precipitation, concentrations of carbon dioxide, and available water flows. This thorough and timely volume is an invaluable resource for anyone interested in exploring the impacts of climate change in arguably the most important sector of the world economy. Economists, agronomists, and climate modelers in academia and the public sector, policy analysts and development agency staff, and graduate/postgraduate students will find this remarkable volume a welcome addition to their collection.
Book Synopsis Dealing with Uncertainty in Agent-Based Simulation by : Christian Troost
Download or read book Dealing with Uncertainty in Agent-Based Simulation written by Christian Troost and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change will most likely confront agricultural producers with natural, economic, and political conditions that have not previously been observed and are largely uncertain. As a consequence, extrapolation from past data reaches its limits, and a process-based analysis of farmer adaptation is required. Simulation of changes in crop yields using crop growth models is a first step in that direction. However, changes in crop yields are only one pathway through which climate change affects agricultural production. A meaningful process-based analysis of farmer adaptation requires a whole-farm analysis at the farm level. We use a highly disaggregated mathematical programming model to analyze farm-level climate change adaptation for a mountainous area in southwest Germany. Regional-level results are obtained by simulating each full-time farm holding in the study area. We address parameter uncertainty and model underdetermination using a cautious calibration approach and a comprehensive uncertainty analysis. We deal with the resulting computational burden using efficient experimental designs and high-performance computing. We show that in our study area, shifted crop management time slots can have potentially significant effects on agricultural supply, incomes, and various policy objectives promoted under German and European environmental policy schemes. The simulated effects are robust against model uncertainty and underline the importance of a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts beyond merely looking at crop yield changes. Our simulations demonstrate how farm-level models can contribute to a process-based analysis of climate change adaptation if they are embedded into a systematic framework for treating inherent model uncertainty.
