Cia Sherman Kent Center For Intelligence Analysis Papers Practice Of Analytic Tradecraft In The Directorate Of Intelligence Transnational Threats Profession Of Intelligence Analysis

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CIA Sherman Kent Center for Intelligence Analysis Papers - Practice of Analytic Tradecraft in the Directorate of Intelligence, Transnational Threats, Profession of Intelligence Analysis

Author : Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781521229118
Total Pages : 176 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (291 download)

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Book Synopsis CIA Sherman Kent Center for Intelligence Analysis Papers - Practice of Analytic Tradecraft in the Directorate of Intelligence, Transnational Threats, Profession of Intelligence Analysis by : Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)

Download or read book CIA Sherman Kent Center for Intelligence Analysis Papers - Practice of Analytic Tradecraft in the Directorate of Intelligence, Transnational Threats, Profession of Intelligence Analysis written by Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and published by . This book was released on 2017-05-05 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This publication of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) is intended to help the Kent Center fulfill its mission of promoting the practice of analytic tradecraft in the Directorate of Intelligence, and of furthering a greater understanding of intelligence analysis in the wider communities in which it is practiced, studied, or taught. These unclassified Occasional Papers are disseminated externally, as appropriate, in addition to being used in courses at the Sherman Kent School, CIA University, and elsewhere in the Intelligence Community.The Kent Center is confident that intelligence analysts now and in the future will benefit from the lessons and insights that contributors to Occasional Papers provide. It is hoped that they will prove to be a valuable addition to the practical literature on intelligence analysis.Contents: Volume 1, Number 1: Improving CIA Analytic Performance: Strategic Warning * Volume 1, Number 2: Improving CIA Analytic Performance: Analysts and the Policymaking Process * Volume 1, Number 3: Improving CIA Analytic Performance: DI Analytic Priorities * Volume 1, Number 4: When Everything Is Intelligence - Nothing Is Intelligence * Volume 1, Number 5: Sherman Kent and the Profession of Intelligence Analysis * Volume 2, Number 1: Strategic Warning: If Surprise is Inevitable, What Role for Analysis? * Volume 2, Number 2: Tensions in Analyst-Policymaker Relations: Opinions, Facts, and Evidence * Volume 2, Number 3: Sherman Kent's Final Thoughts on Analyst-Policymaker Relations * Volume 3, Number 1: Making Sense of Transnational Threats * Volume 3, Number 2: Rethinking "Alternative Analysis" to Address Transnational Threats.Sample: Analytic Tradecraft for Managing Substantive Uncertainty - The failure to provide strategic warning during the months prior to Iraq's 1990 invasion of Kuwait generated recommendations for revamping warning analysis by DDI Doug MacEachin (1993-1995) that spurred changes in the DI's analytic approach to substantive uncertainty generally. The DDI observed that the bottom-line judgment that Iraq was unlikely to initiate warfare in the near term, issued repeatedly in the year before the assault on Kuwait, was based on the assumption that Iraq needed several years to recover from the military and economic devastation of its long war with Iran. That assumption was so widely held by analysts that it was rarely examined critically. Nor was the heavy dependence of the no-war conclusion on the recovery-first assumption explicitly recognized.

Intelligence and the National Security Strategist

Author : Roger Z. George
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN 13 : 9780742540392
Total Pages : 622 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (43 download)

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Book Synopsis Intelligence and the National Security Strategist by : Roger Z. George

Download or read book Intelligence and the National Security Strategist written by Roger Z. George and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2006 with total page 622 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Presents students with an anthology of published articles from diverse sources as well as contributions to the study of intelligence. This collection includes perspectives from the history of warfare, views on the evolution of US intelligence, and studies on the balance between the need for information-gathering and the values of a democracy." - publisher.

Strategic Intelligence for American World Policy

Author : Sherman Kent
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400879159
Total Pages : 254 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Strategic Intelligence for American World Policy by : Sherman Kent

Download or read book Strategic Intelligence for American World Policy written by Sherman Kent and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2015-12-08 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Intelligence work is in some ways like a newspaper or newsmagazine, in some like a business, in some like the research activity of a university; very little of it involves cloaks and daggers. All of it is important to national survival, and should be understood by the citizens of a democracy. In this remarkable book, an able scholar, experienced in foreign intelligence, analyzes all of these varied aspects of what is known as "high-level foreign positive intelligence." Illustrations are drawn from that branch, but the lessons apply to all intelligence, and in fact to all those phases of business, of journalism, and (most importantly) of scholarship, where the problem is to learn what has happened or will happen. Originally published in 1966. The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

Author : Richards J Heuer
Publisher : Pickle Partners Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1839743050
Total Pages : 344 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (397 download)

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Book Synopsis Psychology of Intelligence Analysis by : Richards J Heuer

Download or read book Psychology of Intelligence Analysis written by Richards J Heuer and published by Pickle Partners Publishing. This book was released on 2020-03-05 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this seminal work, published by the C.I.A. itself, produced by Intelligence veteran Richards Heuer discusses three pivotal points. First, human minds are ill-equipped ("poorly wired") to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems.

Global Trends 2040

Author : National Intelligence Council
Publisher : Cosimo Reports
ISBN 13 : 9781646794973
Total Pages : 158 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (949 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Trends 2040 by : National Intelligence Council

Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Perspectives and Opportunities in Intelligence for U.S. Leaders

Author : CORTNEY WEINBAUM.
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (139 download)

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Book Synopsis Perspectives and Opportunities in Intelligence for U.S. Leaders by : CORTNEY WEINBAUM.

Download or read book Perspectives and Opportunities in Intelligence for U.S. Leaders written by CORTNEY WEINBAUM. and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Analyzing Intelligence

Author : Roger Z. George
Publisher : Georgetown University Press
ISBN 13 : 1589012399
Total Pages : 353 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (89 download)

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Book Synopsis Analyzing Intelligence by : Roger Z. George

Download or read book Analyzing Intelligence written by Roger Z. George and published by Georgetown University Press. This book was released on 2008-04-09 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Drawing on the individual and collective experience of recognized intelligence experts and scholars in the field, Analyzing Intelligence provides the first comprehensive assessment of the state of intelligence analysis since 9/11. Its in-depth and balanced evaluation of more than fifty years of U.S. analysis includes a critique of why it has under-performed at times. It provides insights regarding the enduring obstacles as well as new challenges of analysis in the post-9/11 world, and suggests innovative ideas for improved analytical methods, training, and structured approaches. The book's six sections present a coherent plan for improving analysis. Early chapters examine how intelligence analysis has evolved since its origins in the mid-20th century, focusing on traditions, culture, successes, and failures. The middle sections examine how analysis supports the most senior national security and military policymakers and strategists, and how analysts must deal with the perennial challenges of collection, politicization, analytical bias, knowledge building and denial and deception. The final sections of the book propose new ways to address enduring issues in warning analysis, methodology (or "analytical tradecraft") and emerging analytic issues like homeland defense. The book suggests new forms of analytic collaboration in a global intelligence environment, and imperatives for the development of a new profession of intelligence analysis. Analyzing Intelligence is written for the national security expert who needs to understand the role of intelligence and its strengths and weaknesses. Practicing and future analysts will also find that its attention to the enduring challenges provides useful lessons-learned to guide their own efforts. The innovations section will provoke senior intelligence managers to consider major changes in the way analysis is currently organized and conducted, and the way that analysts are trained and perform.

Report of the Select Committee on Intelligence on the U.S. Intelligence Community's Prewar Intelligence Assessments on Iraq Together with Additional Views

Download Report of the Select Committee on Intelligence on the U.S. Intelligence Community's Prewar Intelligence Assessments on Iraq Together with Additional Views PDF Online Free

Author : United States. Congress. Senate. Select Committee on Intelligence
Publisher : Select Committee on Intelligence
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 534 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (319 download)

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Book Synopsis Report of the Select Committee on Intelligence on the U.S. Intelligence Community's Prewar Intelligence Assessments on Iraq Together with Additional Views by : United States. Congress. Senate. Select Committee on Intelligence

Download or read book Report of the Select Committee on Intelligence on the U.S. Intelligence Community's Prewar Intelligence Assessments on Iraq Together with Additional Views written by United States. Congress. Senate. Select Committee on Intelligence and published by Select Committee on Intelligence. This book was released on 2004 with total page 534 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence presents its report on prewar intelligence regarding Iraq, which contains numerous documents from various U.S. intelligence agencies regarding possible weapons of mass destruction, and other issues relating to Iraq.

Curing Analytic Pathologies

Author : Jeffrey Cooper
Publisher : CreateSpace
ISBN 13 : 9781475275247
Total Pages : 82 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (752 download)

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Book Synopsis Curing Analytic Pathologies by : Jeffrey Cooper

Download or read book Curing Analytic Pathologies written by Jeffrey Cooper and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2012-04-28 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: FROM THE AUTHOR: As a result of a number of analytic projects for different intelligence agencies, a major focus of my work during the past several years has involved examining the practice of analysis within the US Intelligence Community. This study was prompted by a growing conviction-shared by others, to be sure-that improving the analytic products delivered by Intelligence Community components had to begin with a critical and thorough appraisal of the way those products are created. A conversation with a physicist friend in 2002 had triggered thoughts on several basic differences between the practice of science and intelligence analysis. Shortly thereafter, an invitation to give a seminar on intelligence analysis at Stanford University led me to prepare a briefing entitled "Intelligence and Warning: Analytic Pathologies," which focused on a diagnosis of the problems highlighted by recent intelligence failures. As Donald Stokes noted in his seminal book on science and technological innovation, Pasteur's Quadrant, "Pathologies have proved to be both a continuing source of insight into the system's normal functioning and a motive for extending basic knowledge." The Analytic Pathologies framework yields four insights that are crucial both to accurate diagnosis and to developing effective remedies. First, the framework enables analysts to identify individual analytic impediments and determine their sources. Second, it prompts analysts to detect the systemic pathologies that result from closely-coupled networks and to find the linkages among the individual impediments. Third, it demonstrates that each of these networks, and thus each systemic pathology, usually spans multiple levels within the hierarchy of the Intelligence Community. Fourth, the framework highlights the need to treat both the systemic pathologies and the individual impediments by focusing effective remedial measures on the right target and at the appropriate level.

Cases in Intelligence Analysis

Author : Sarah Miller Beebe
Publisher : CQ Press
ISBN 13 : 1483340147
Total Pages : 328 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (833 download)

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Book Synopsis Cases in Intelligence Analysis by : Sarah Miller Beebe

Download or read book Cases in Intelligence Analysis written by Sarah Miller Beebe and published by CQ Press. This book was released on 2014-04-28 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In their Second Edition of Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Structured Analytic Techniques in Action, accomplished instructors and intelligence practitioners Sarah Miller Beebe and Randolph H. Pherson offer robust, class-tested cases studies of events in foreign intelligence, counterintelligence, terrorism, homeland security, law enforcement, and decision-making support. Designed to give analysts-in-training an opportunity to apply structured analytic techniques and tackle real-life problems, each turnkey case delivers a captivating narrative, discussion questions, recommended readings, and a series of engaging analytic exercises.

Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis

Author : Richards J. Heuer Jr.
Publisher : CQ Press
ISBN 13 : 148331202X
Total Pages : 385 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (833 download)

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Book Synopsis Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis by : Richards J. Heuer Jr.

Download or read book Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis written by Richards J. Heuer Jr. and published by CQ Press. This book was released on 2014-05-28 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this Second Edition of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, authors Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson showcase fifty-five structured analytic techniques—five new to this edition—that represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis.

Intelligence Analysis

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309176980
Total Pages : 352 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Intelligence Analysis by : National Research Council

Download or read book Intelligence Analysis written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-04-08 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify, synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation's security depends. The IC's success depends on having trained, motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities. Intelligence Analysis provides up-to-date scientific guidance for the intelligence community (IC) so that it might improve individual and group judgments, communication between analysts, and analytic processes. The papers in this volume provide the detailed evidentiary base for the National Research Council's report, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences. The opening chapter focuses on the structure, missions, operations, and characteristics of the IC while the following 12 papers provide in-depth reviews of key topics in three areas: analytic methods, analysts, and organizations. Informed by the IC's unique missions and constraints, each paper documents the latest advancements of the relevant science and is a stand-alone resource for the IC's leadership and workforce. The collection allows readers to focus on one area of interest (analytic methods, analysts, or organizations) or even one particular aspect of a category. As a collection, the volume provides a broad perspective of the issues involved in making difficult decisions, which is at the heart of intelligence analysis.

Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309163420
Total Pages : 116 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow by : National Research Council

Download or read book Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-04-08 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The intelligence community (IC) plays an essential role in the national security of the United States. Decision makers rely on IC analyses and predictions to reduce uncertainty and to provide warnings about everything from international diplomatic relations to overseas conflicts. In today's complex and rapidly changing world, it is more important than ever that analytic products be accurate and timely. Recognizing that need, the IC has been actively seeking ways to improve its performance and expand its capabilities. In 2008, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to establish a committee to synthesize and assess evidence from the behavioral and social sciences relevant to analytic methods and their potential application for the U.S. intelligence community. In Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences, the NRC offers the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) recommendations to address many of the IC's challenges. Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow asserts that one of the most important things that the IC can learn from the behavioral and social sciences is how to characterize and evaluate its analytic assumptions, methods, technologies, and management practices. Behavioral and social scientific knowledge can help the IC to understand and improve all phases of the analytic cycle: how to recruit, select, train, and motivate analysts; how to master and deploy the most suitable analytic methods; how to organize the day-to-day work of analysts, as individuals and teams; and how to communicate with its customers. The report makes five broad recommendations which offer practical ways to apply the behavioral and social sciences, which will bring the IC substantial immediate and longer-term benefits with modest costs and minimal disruption.

Inside CIA's Private World

Author : H. Bradford Westerfield
Publisher : Yale University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780300072648
Total Pages : 514 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (726 download)

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Book Synopsis Inside CIA's Private World by : H. Bradford Westerfield

Download or read book Inside CIA's Private World written by H. Bradford Westerfield and published by Yale University Press. This book was released on 1997-08-25 with total page 514 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Presenting the most interesting articles from the CIA's Studies in Intelligence journal, this book provides revealing insights into CIA strategies and into events in which the organisation was involved.

Intelligence Tradecraft Primer and Media Exposure

Author : Randall E. Puig
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781608768981
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (689 download)

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Book Synopsis Intelligence Tradecraft Primer and Media Exposure by : Randall E. Puig

Download or read book Intelligence Tradecraft Primer and Media Exposure written by Randall E. Puig and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book highlights structured analytic techniques -- some widely used in the private sector and academia, some unique to the intelligence profession. Using the analytic techniques contained in this primer will assist analysts in dealing with the perennial problems of intelligence: the complexity of international developments, incomplete and ambiguous information, and the inherent limitations of the human mind. Understanding the intentions and capabilities of adversaries and other foreign actors is challenging, especially when either or both are concealed. Moreover, transnational threats today pose even greater complexity, in that they involve multiple actors -- including non-state entities -- that can adapt and transform themselves faster than those who seek to monitor and contain them. Finally, globalisation has increased the diversity of outcomes when complex, interactive systems such as financial flows, regional economies or the international system as a whole are in flux. Additionally, one of the least appreciated facts about the intelligence profession is that it exists in, and is influenced by, a very complex environment, one that includes everything from its relationships with policymakers, legislatures, military services, foreign partners, and last but not least, to its interaction with the public.

Historical Dictionary of United States Intelligence

Author : Michael A. Turner
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN 13 : 0810878909
Total Pages : 423 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (18 download)

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Book Synopsis Historical Dictionary of United States Intelligence by : Michael A. Turner

Download or read book Historical Dictionary of United States Intelligence written by Michael A. Turner and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2014-10-08 with total page 423 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While the United States has had some kind of intelligence capability throughout its history, its intelligence apparatus is young, dating only to the period immediately after World War II. Yet, in that short a time, it has undergone enormous changes—from the labor-intensive espionage and covert action establishment of the 1950s to a modern enterprise that relies heavily on electronic data, technology, satellites, airborne collection platforms, and unmanned aerial vehicles, to name a few. This second edition covers the history of United States intelligence, and includes several key features: Chronology Introductory essay Appendixes Bibliography Over 600 cross-referenced entries on key events, issues, people, operations, laws, regulations This book is an excellent access point for members of the intelligence community; students, scholars, and historians; legal experts; and general readers wanting to know more about the history of U.S. intelligence.

The Targeter

Author : Nada Bakos
Publisher : Little, Brown
ISBN 13 : 0316260452
Total Pages : 368 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (162 download)

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Book Synopsis The Targeter by : Nada Bakos

Download or read book The Targeter written by Nada Bakos and published by Little, Brown. This book was released on 2019-06-04 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A CIA analyst's "revealing and utterly engrossing account" of the world of high-stakes foreign intelligence and her role within the campaign to stop top-tier targets inside Al-Qaida (Joby Warrick). In 1999, 30-year-old Nada Bakos moved from her lifelong home in Montana to Washington, D.C., to join the CIA. Quickly realizing her affinity for intelligence work, Nada was determined to rise through the ranks of the agency first as an analyst and then as a Targeting Officer, eventually finding herself on the frontline of America's war against Islamic extremists. In this role, Nada was charged with determining if Iraq had a relationship with 9/11 and Al-Qaida, and finding the mastermind behind this terrorist activity: Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Her team's analysis stood the test of time, but it was not satisfactory for some members of the Administration. In a tight, tension-packed narrative that takes the reader from Langley deep into Iraq, Bakos reveals the inner workings of the Agency and the largely hidden world of intelligence gathering post 9/11. Entrenched in the world of the CIA, Bakos, along with her colleagues, focused on leading U.S. Special Operations Forces to the doorstep of one of the world's most wanted terrorists. Filled with on-the-ground insights and poignant personal anecdotes, The Targeter shows us the great personal sacrifice that comes with intelligence work. This is Nada's story, but it is also an intimate chronicle of how a group of determined, ambitious men and women worked tirelessly in the heart of the CIA to ensure our nation's safety at home and abroad.