Certain Uncertainty

Download Certain Uncertainty full books in PDF, epub, and Kindle. Read online Certain Uncertainty ebook anywhere anytime directly on your device. Fast Download speed and no annoying ads. We cannot guarantee that every ebooks is available!

A Certain Uncertainty

Author : Mark P. Silverman
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139992414
Total Pages : 637 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (399 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis A Certain Uncertainty by : Mark P. Silverman

Download or read book A Certain Uncertainty written by Mark P. Silverman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2014-07-10 with total page 637 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based around a series of real-life scenarios, this engaging introduction to statistical reasoning will teach you how to apply powerful statistical, qualitative and probabilistic tools in a technical context. From analysis of electricity bills, baseball statistics, and stock market fluctuations, through to profound questions about physics of fermions and bosons, decaying nuclei, and climate change, each chapter introduces relevant physical, statistical and mathematical principles step-by-step in an engaging narrative style, helping to develop practical proficiency in the use of probability and statistical reasoning. With numerous illustrations making it easy to focus on the most important information, this insightful book is perfect for students and researchers of any discipline interested in the interwoven tapestry of probability, statistics, and physics.

The Certainty of Uncertainty

Author : Mark Schaefer
Publisher : Wipf and Stock Publishers
ISBN 13 : 1532653433
Total Pages : 277 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (326 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis The Certainty of Uncertainty by : Mark Schaefer

Download or read book The Certainty of Uncertainty written by Mark Schaefer and published by Wipf and Stock Publishers. This book was released on 2018-08-23 with total page 277 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The world is full of people who are very certain—in politics, in religion, in all manner of things. In addition, political, religious, and social organizations are marketing certainty as a cure all to all life’s problems. But is such certainty possible? Or even good? The Certainty of Uncertainty explores the question of certainty by looking at the reasons human beings crave certainty and the religious responses we frequently fashion to help meet that need. The book takes an in-depth view of religion, language, our senses, our science, and our world to explore the inescapable uncertainties they reveal. We find that the certainty we crave does not exist. As we reflect on the unavoidable uncertainties in our world, we come to understand that letting go of certainty is not only necessary, it’s beneficial. For, in embracing doubt and uncertainty, we find a more meaningful and courageous religious faith, a deeper encounter with mystery, and a way to build strong relationships across religious and philosophical lines. In The Certainty of Uncertainty, we see that embracing our belief systems with humility and uncertainty can be transformative for ourselves and for our world.

A Certain Uncertainty

Author : Mark P. Silverman
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1107032814
Total Pages : 637 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (7 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis A Certain Uncertainty by : Mark P. Silverman

Download or read book A Certain Uncertainty written by Mark P. Silverman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2014-07-10 with total page 637 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This engaging introduction to statistical reasoning will teach you how to apply powerful statistical tools in a technical context.

Certain Peace in Uncertain Times

Author : Shirley Dobson
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781414321509
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (215 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Certain Peace in Uncertain Times by : Shirley Dobson

Download or read book Certain Peace in Uncertain Times written by Shirley Dobson and published by . This book was released on 2008-04-02 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Shirley Dobson knows more than anyone else about mobilizing groups and individuals to pray effectively. In her new release, Certain Peace in Uncertain Times, the National Day of Prayer Task Force Chairman teaches readers to Praise, Repent, Ask, and Yield -- nurturing a true and lasting lifestyle of prayer. This memorable, biblically sound resource will motivate and encourage everyone to communicate daily with God. End result: Christians around the world praying as one -- not because they ought to, but because they want to!"--Publisher description.

Moral Uncertainty

Author : William MacAskill
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0198722273
Total Pages : 237 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (987 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Moral Uncertainty by : William MacAskill

Download or read book Moral Uncertainty written by William MacAskill and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2020 with total page 237 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: About the bookToby Ord try to fill this gap. They argue that there are distinctive norms that govern how one ought to make decisions and defend an information-sensitive account of how to make such decisions. They do so by developing an analogy between moral uncertainty and social choice, noting that different moral views provide different amounts of information regarding our reasons for action, and arguing that the correct account of decision-making under moral uncertainty must be sensitive to that. Moral Uncertainty also tackles the problem of how to make intertheoretic comparisons, and addresses the implications of their view for metaethics and practical ethics. Very often we are uncertain about what we ought, morally, to do. We do not know how to weigh the interests of animals against humans, how strong our duties are to improve the lives of distant strangers, or how to think about the ethics of bringing new people into existence. But we still need to act. So how should we make decisions in the face of such uncertainty? Though economists and philosophers have extensively studied the issue of decision-making in the face of uncertainty about matters of fact, the question of decision-making given fundamental moral uncertainty has been neglected. In Moral Uncertainty, philosophers William MacAskill, Krister Bykvist, and Toby Ord try to fill this gap. They argue that there are distinctive norms that govern how one ought to make decisions and defend an information-sensitive account of how to make such decisions. They do so by developing an analogy between moral uncertainty and social choice, noting that different moral views provide different amounts of information regarding our reasons for action, and arguing that the correct account of decision-making under moral uncertainty must be sensitive to that. Moral Uncertainty also tackles the problem of how to make intertheoretic comparisons, and addresses the implications of their view for metaethics and practical ethics.

Great by Choice

Author : Jim Collins
Publisher : Harper Collins
ISBN 13 : 0062121006
Total Pages : 320 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (621 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Great by Choice by : Jim Collins

Download or read book Great by Choice written by Jim Collins and published by Harper Collins. This book was released on 2011-10-11 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ten years after the worldwide bestseller Good to Great, Jim Collins returns withanother groundbreaking work, this time to ask: why do some companies thrive inuncertainty, even chaos, and others do not? Based on nine years of research,buttressed by rigorous analysis and infused with engaging stories, Collins andhis colleague Morten Hansen enumerate the principles for building a truly greatenterprise in unpredictable, tumultuous and fast-moving times. This book isclassic Collins: contrarian, data-driven and uplifting.

Principles of Uncertainty

Author : Joseph B. Kadane
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1351683365
Total Pages : 525 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (516 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Principles of Uncertainty by : Joseph B. Kadane

Download or read book Principles of Uncertainty written by Joseph B. Kadane and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2020-11-25 with total page 525 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for the first edition: Principles of Uncertainty is a profound and mesmerising book on the foundations and principles of subjectivist or behaviouristic Bayesian analysis. ... the book is a pleasure to read. And highly recommended for teaching as it can be used at many different levels. ... A must-read for sure!—Christian Robert, CHANCE It's a lovely book, one that I hope will be widely adopted as a course textbook. —Michael Jordan, University of California, Berkeley, USA Like the prize-winning first edition, Principles of Uncertainty, Second Edition is an accessible, comprehensive text on the theory of Bayesian Statistics written in an appealing, inviting style, and packed with interesting examples. It presents an introduction to the subjective Bayesian approach which has played a pivotal role in game theory, economics, and the recent boom in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. This new edition has been updated throughout and features new material on Nonparametric Bayesian Methods, the Dirichlet distribution, a simple proof of the central limit theorem, and new problems. Key Features: First edition won the 2011 DeGroot Prize Well-written introduction to theory of Bayesian statistics Each of the introductory chapters begins by introducing one new concept or assumption Uses "just-in-time mathematics"—the introduction to mathematical ideas just before they are applied

Taming Uncertainty

Author : Ralph Hertwig
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262353148
Total Pages : 489 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (623 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Taming Uncertainty by : Ralph Hertwig

Download or read book Taming Uncertainty written by Ralph Hertwig and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-08-13 with total page 489 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An examination of the cognitive tools that the mind uses to grapple with uncertainty in the real world. How do humans navigate uncertainty, continuously making near-effortless decisions and predictions even under conditions of imperfect knowledge, high complexity, and extreme time pressure? Taming Uncertainty argues that the human mind has developed tools to grapple with uncertainty. Unlike much previous scholarship in psychology and economics, this approach is rooted in what is known about what real minds can do. Rather than reducing the human response to uncertainty to an act of juggling probabilities, the authors propose that the human cognitive system has specific tools for dealing with different forms of uncertainty. They identify three types of tools: simple heuristics, tools for information search, and tools for harnessing the wisdom of others. This set of strategies for making predictions, inferences, and decisions constitute the mind's adaptive toolbox. The authors show how these three dimensions of human decision making are integrated and they argue that the toolbox, its cognitive foundation, and the environment are in constant flux and subject to developmental change. They demonstrate that each cognitive tool can be analyzed through the concept of ecological rationality—that is, the fit between specific tools and specific environments. Chapters deal with such specific instances of decision making as food choice architecture, intertemporal choice, financial uncertainty, pedestrian navigation, and adolescent behavior.

Risk, Uncertainty and Profit

Author : Frank H. Knight
Publisher : Cosimo, Inc.
ISBN 13 : 1602060053
Total Pages : 401 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (2 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Risk, Uncertainty and Profit by : Frank H. Knight

Download or read book Risk, Uncertainty and Profit written by Frank H. Knight and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.

Managing Uncertainty

Author : Michel Syrett
Publisher : The Economist
ISBN 13 : 1610395131
Total Pages : 170 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (13 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Managing Uncertainty by : Michel Syrett

Download or read book Managing Uncertainty written by Michel Syrett and published by The Economist. This book was released on 2014-02-25 with total page 170 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Managing uncertainty has become a new business imperative. Technological discontinuities, regulatory upheavals, geopolitical shocks, abrupt shifts in consumer tastes or behavior, and many other factors have emerged or intensified in recent years and together conspire to undermine even the most carefully constructed business strategies. Managing Uncertainty: Strategies for Surviving and Thriving in Turbulent Times addresses these new challenges, assessing the sources of business turbulence, how to classify uncertainty, and the different ways in which uncertainty can be embraced to allow greater innovation and growth. Drawing on examples from around the world, the book presents the most recent ideas on what it means to manage uncertainty, from practitioners, academics, and consultants. • Addresses the challenges of managing uncertainty in business • Presents a step-by-step guide to managing business uncertainty • Draws examples from major international companies, including Intel, Procter & Gamble, Siemens, Boeing, Quinetiq, Philips, China Telecom, Ford, Apple, Shell, Glaxo SmithKline and many more Written for business leaders and managers looking for new ways to ensure that their businesses continue to thrive in a world of increasing complexity, Managing Uncertainty presents new and innovative ideas about reducing risk by understanding difficult-to-predict shifts.

Beautiful Uncertainty

Author : Mandy Hale
Publisher : Thomas Nelson
ISBN 13 : 0718076125
Total Pages : 224 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (18 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Beautiful Uncertainty by : Mandy Hale

Download or read book Beautiful Uncertainty written by Mandy Hale and published by Thomas Nelson. This book was released on 2016-02-02 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To seek, pursue, and fall in love with Jesus with radical abandon. Single Woman Mandy Hale shares with readers what can happen in their lives by praying this powerful prayer. She has shown women how important it is to be secure in singleness by being smart, strong, and independent. In this all new book, she will prompt readers to never settle and not miss out on the beauty that can be found in times of “waiting.” The Single Woman Says: “Whether you’re idling in stubborn sinfulness or walking in seeming never-ending singleness or living with any sort of waiting: Waiting for love, waiting for babies, waiting for marriage, waiting for a cure, or a miracle, or a sign, or for GOD . . . I hope my journey will make the wait a little easier and the uncertainty a little bit more beautiful.” Starting with relationships, but going beyond into areas like career, friendships, and life, Mandy will guide readers through what you can achieve if you look beyond your current circumstances, never settle for less than what God has for you, and find beauty in the waiting.

Understanding Uncertainty

Author : Dennis V. Lindley
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470055472
Total Pages : 268 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Understanding Uncertainty by : Dennis V. Lindley

Download or read book Understanding Uncertainty written by Dennis V. Lindley and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-08-28 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A lively and informal introduction to the role of uncertainty and probability in people's lives from an everyday perspective From television game shows and gambling techniques to weather forecasting and the financial markets, virtually every aspect of modern life involves situations in which the outcomes are uncertain and of varying qualities. But as noted statistician Dennis Lindley writes in this distinctive text, "We want you to face up to uncertainty, not hide it away under false concepts, but to understand it and, moreover, to use the recent discoveries so that you can act in the face of uncertainty more sensibly than would have been possible without the skill." Accessibly written at an elementary level, this outstanding text examines uncertainty in various everyday situations and introduces readers to three rules--craftily laid out in the book--that prove uncertainty can be handled with as much confidence as ordinary logic. Combining a concept of utility with probability, the book insightfully demonstrates how uncertainty can be measured and used in everyday life, especially in decision-making and science. With a focus on understanding and using probability calculations, Understanding Uncertainty demystifies probability and: * Explains in straightforward detail the logic of uncertainty, its truths, and its falsehoods * Explores what has been learned in the twentieth century about uncertainty * Provides a logical, sensible method for acting in the face of uncertainty * Presents vignettes of great discoveries made in the twentieth century * Shows readers how to discern if another person--whether a lawyer, politician, scientist, or journalist--is talking sense, posing the right questions, or obtaining sound answers Requiring only a basic understanding of mathematical concepts and operations, Understanding Uncertainty is useful as a text for all students who have probability or statistics as part of their course, even at the most introductory level.

Relax, It's Only Uncertainty

Author : Philip Hodgson
Publisher : Financial Times/Prentice Hall
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 248 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Relax, It's Only Uncertainty by : Philip Hodgson

Download or read book Relax, It's Only Uncertainty written by Philip Hodgson and published by Financial Times/Prentice Hall. This book was released on 2001 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Leading the way when the way is changing.

Uncertainty

Author : Jonathan Fields
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 1591845661
Total Pages : 241 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (918 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Uncertainty by : Jonathan Fields

Download or read book Uncertainty written by Jonathan Fields and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2012-11-06 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Jonathan Fields knows the risks-and potential power-of uncertainty. He gave up a six-figure income as a lawyer to make $12 an hour as a personal trainer. Then, married with a 3-month old baby, he signed a lease to launch a yoga center in the heart of New York City. . . the day before 9/11. But he survived, and along the way he developed a fresh approach to transforming uncertainty, risk of loss, and exposure to judgment into catalysts for innovation, creation, and achievement. In business, art, and life, creating on a world-class level demands bold action and leaps of faith in the face of great uncertainty. But that uncertainty can lead to fear, anxiety, paralysis, and destruction. It can gut creativity and stifle innovation. It can keep you from taking the risks necessary to do great work and craft a deeply-rewarding life. And it can bring companies that rely on innovation grinding to a halt. That is, unless you know how to use it to your advantage. Fields draws on leading-edge technology, cognitive science, and ancient awareness-focusing techniques in a fresh, practical, nondogmatic way. His approach enables creativity and productivity on an entirely different level and can turn the once-tortuous journey into a more enjoyable quest.

Investment under Uncertainty

Author : Robert K. Dixit
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400830176
Total Pages : 484 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Investment under Uncertainty by : Robert K. Dixit

Download or read book Investment under Uncertainty written by Robert K. Dixit and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-07-14 with total page 484 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products? Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries? In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made. In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending. This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information. It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment. The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.

The Cunning of Uncertainty

Author : Helga Nowotny
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0745687652
Total Pages : 220 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (456 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis The Cunning of Uncertainty by : Helga Nowotny

Download or read book The Cunning of Uncertainty written by Helga Nowotny and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-11-19 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is interwoven into human existence. It is a powerful incentive in the search for knowledge and an inherent component of scientific research. We have developed many ways of coping with uncertainty. We make promises, manage risks and make predictions to try to clear the mists and predict ahead. But the future is inherently uncertain - and the mist that shrouds our path an inherent part of our journey. The burning question is whether our societies can face up to uncertainty, learn to embrace it and whether we can open up to a constantly evolving future. In this new book, Helga Nowotny shows how research can thrive at the cusp of uncertainty. Science, she argues, can eventually transform uncertainty into certainty, but into certainty which remains always provisional. Uncertainty is never completely static. It is constantly evolving. It encompasses geological time scales and, at the level of human experience, split-second changes as cells divide. Life and death decisions are taken in the blink of the eye, while human interactions with the natural environment may reveal their impact over millennia. Uncertainty is cunning. It appears at unexpected moments, it shuns the straight line, takes the oblique route and sometimes the unexpected short-cut. As we acknowledge the cunning of uncertainty, its threats retreat. We accept that any scientific inquiry must produce results that are provisional and uncertain. This message is vital for politicians and policy-makers: do not be tempted by small, short-term, controllable gains to the exclusion of uncertain, high-gain opportunities. Wide-ranging in its use of examples and enriched by the author’s experience as President of the European Research Council, one of the world’s leading funding organisations for fundamental research. The Cunning of Uncertainty is a must-read for students and scholars of all disciplines, politicians, policy-makers and anyone concerned with the fundamental role of knowledge and science in our societies today.

Toward a Psychology of Uncertainty

Author : Doris Brothers
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
ISBN 13 : 1135469024
Total Pages : 239 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (354 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Toward a Psychology of Uncertainty by : Doris Brothers

Download or read book Toward a Psychology of Uncertainty written by Doris Brothers and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2011-04-12 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since trauma is a thoroughly relational phenomenon, it is highly unpredictable, and cannot be made to fit within the scientific framework Freud so admired. In Toward a Psychology of Uncertainty: Trauma-Centered Psychoanalysis, Doris Brothers urges a return to a trauma-centered psychoanalysis. Making use of relational systems theory, she shows that experiences of uncertainty are continually transformed by the regulatory processes of everyday life such as feeling, knowing, forming categories, making decisions, using language, creating narratives, sensing time, remembering, forgetting, and fantasizing. Insofar as trauma destroys the certainties that organize psychological life, it plunges our relational systems into chaos and sets the stage for the emergence of rigid, life-constricting relational patterns. These trauma-generated patterns, which often involve denial of sameness and difference, the creation of complexity-reducing dualities, and the transformation of certainty into certitude, figure prominently in virtually all of the complaints for which patients seek analytic treatment. Analysts, she claims, are no more strangers to trauma than are their patients. Using in-depth clinical illustrations, Dr. Brothers demonstrates how a mutual desire to heal and to be healed from trauma draws patients and analysts into their analytic relationships. She recommends the reconceptualization of what has heretofore been considered transference and countertransference in terms of the transformation of experienced uncertainty. In her view the increased ability of both analytic partners to live with uncertainty is the mark of a successful treatment. Dr. Brothers’ perspective sheds fresh light on a variety of topics of great general interest to analysts as well as many of their patients, such as gender, the acceptance of death, faith, cult-like training programs, and burnout. Her discussions of these topics are enlivened by references to contemporary cinema and theatre.