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Central Bank Exit Strategies Domestic Transmission And International Spillovers
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Book Synopsis Central Bank Exit Strategies Domestic Transmission and International Spillovers by : Christopher J. Erceg
Download or read book Central Bank Exit Strategies Domestic Transmission and International Spillovers written by Christopher J. Erceg and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-03-29 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study alternative approaches to the withdrawal of prolonged unconventional monetary stimulus (“exit strategies”) by central banks in large, advanced economies. We first show empirically that large-scale asset purchases affect the exchange rate and domestic and foreign term premiums more strongly than conventional short-term policy rate changes when normalizing by the effects on domestic GDP. We then build a two-country New Keynesian model that features segmented bond markets, cognitive discounting and strategic complementarities in price setting that is consistent with these findings. The model implies that quantitative easing (QE) is the only effective way to provide monetary stimulus when policy rates are persistently constrained by the effective lower bound, and that QE is likely to have larger domestic output effects than quantitative tightening (QT). We demonstrate that “exit strategies” by large advanced economies that rely heavily on QT can trigger sizeable inflation-output tradeoffs in foreign recipient economies through the exchange rate and term premium channels. We also show that these tradeoffs are likely to be stronger in emerging market economies, especially those with fixed exchange rates.
Book Synopsis New Perspectives on Quantitative Easing and Central Bank Capital Policies by : Mr. Tobias Adrian
Download or read book New Perspectives on Quantitative Easing and Central Bank Capital Policies written by Mr. Tobias Adrian and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-05-17 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Central banks have come under increasing criticism for large balance sheet losses associated with quantitative easing (QE), and some observers have also argued that QE helped fuel the post-COVID-19 inflation boom. In this paper, we reconsider the conditions under which QE may be warranted considering the recent high inflation experience. We emphasize that the merits of QE should be evaluated based on the macroeconomic stimulus it provides and its effects on the consolidated fiscal position, and not simply on central bank profits or losses. Using an open economy DSGE model with segmented asset markets, we show how QE can provide a sizeable boost to output and inflation in a deep recession and improve the consolidated fiscal position—even if the central bank experiences considerable losses. However, the commitment-based features of QE and the possibility that upside inflation risks are bigger than recognized pre-pandemic call for more caution in using QE closer to full employment. We then consider how central banks might modify their policies for allocating profits to the government in light of large-scale losses. In short, we suggest that a more forward-looking and risk-based approach may be desirable in helping protect central bank financial autonomy and ultimately independence.
Book Synopsis ECB Spillovers to Emerging Europe: The Past and Current Experience by : Philipp Engler
Download or read book ECB Spillovers to Emerging Europe: The Past and Current Experience written by Philipp Engler and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-08-09 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We provide new evidence on the spillover effects of ECB monetary policy shocks to emerging European economies, using a combination of empirical methods and model-based simulations and focusing on spillovers from interest rate and balance sheet policies implemented by the ECB. We consider an event study set around the ECB policy announcement in June 2022 and also use local projections to estimate regional spillovers in a panel of 16 Emerging European countries spanning 1999 to 2022. Identifying ECB monetary policy shocks as the unexplained component of changes in the three-month Euribor futures rate, we find that ECB monetary policy tightening induces more than one-for-one changes in government bond yields in Emerging Europe, as well as sizable increases in sovereign spreads, domestic currency depreciations, and significantly lower output. Model simulations using a two-country DSGE calibrated to the euro area and its Eastern European neighbors reveal that a conventional tightening, achieved through interest rate increases, provides a more favorable inflation-output trade-off compared to balance sheet tightenings. The extent of spillovers from quantitative tightening depends on the speed of balance sheet reduction, and it is larger under a fixed exchange rate regime.
Book Synopsis International Capital Flows by : Martin Feldstein
Download or read book International Capital Flows written by Martin Feldstein and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-12-01 with total page 500 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent changes in technology, along with the opening up of many regions previously closed to investment, have led to explosive growth in the international movement of capital. Flows from foreign direct investment and debt and equity financing can bring countries substantial gains by augmenting local savings and by improving technology and incentives. Investing companies acquire market access, lower cost inputs, and opportunities for profitable introductions of production methods in the countries where they invest. But, as was underscored recently by the economic and financial crises in several Asian countries, capital flows can also bring risks. Although there is no simple explanation of the currency crisis in Asia, it is clear that fixed exchange rates and chronic deficits increased the likelihood of a breakdown. Similarly, during the 1970s, the United States and other industrial countries loaned OPEC surpluses to borrowers in Latin America. But when the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates to control soaring inflation, the result was a widespread debt moratorium in Latin America as many countries throughout the region struggled to pay the high interest on their foreign loans. International Capital Flows contains recent work by eminent scholars and practitioners on the experience of capital flows to Latin America, Asia, and eastern Europe. These papers discuss the role of banks, equity markets, and foreign direct investment in international capital flows, and the risks that investors and others face with these transactions. By focusing on capital flows' productivity and determinants, and the policy issues they raise, this collection is a valuable resource for economists, policymakers, and financial market participants.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 : Total Pages :174 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (2 download)
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, October 2024 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 2024 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-10-22 with total page 174 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The latest World Economic Outlook reports stable but underwhelming global growth, with the balance of risks tilted to the downside. As monetary policy is eased amid continued disinflation, shifting gears is needed to ensure that fiscal policy is on a sustainable path and to rebuild fiscal buffers. Understanding the role of monetary policy in recent global disinflation, and the factors that influence the social acceptability of structural reforms, will be key to promoting stable and more rapid growth in the future.
Book Synopsis Dominant Currency Paradigm: A New Model for Small Open Economies by : Camila Casas
Download or read book Dominant Currency Paradigm: A New Model for Small Open Economies written by Camila Casas and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-11-22 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most trade is invoiced in very few currencies. Despite this, the Mundell-Fleming benchmark and its variants focus on pricing in the producer’s currency or in local currency. We model instead a ‘dominant currency paradigm’ for small open economies characterized by three features: pricing in a dominant currency; pricing complementarities, and imported input use in production. Under this paradigm: (a) the terms-of-trade is stable; (b) dominant currency exchange rate pass-through into export and import prices is high regardless of destination or origin of goods; (c) exchange rate pass-through of non-dominant currencies is small; (d) expenditure switching occurs mostly via imports, driven by the dollar exchange rate while exports respond weakly, if at all; (e) strengthening of the dominant currency relative to non-dominant ones can negatively impact global trade; (f) optimal monetary policy targets deviations from the law of one price arising from dominant currency fluctuations, in addition to the inflation and output gap. Using data from Colombia we document strong support for the dominant currency paradigm.
Author :International Monetary Fund. European Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 : Total Pages :32 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (2 download)
Book Synopsis Sweden by : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Download or read book Sweden written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-03-11 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sweden: Selected Issues
Book Synopsis Currencies, Capital, and Central Bank Balances by : John H. Cochrane
Download or read book Currencies, Capital, and Central Bank Balances written by John H. Cochrane and published by Hoover Press. This book was released on 2019-04-01 with total page 306 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Drawing from their 2018 conference, the Hoover Institution brings together leading academics and monetary policy makers to share ideas about the practical issues facing central banks today. The expert contributors discuss U.S. monetary policy at individual central banks and reform of the international monetary and financial system. The discussion is broken down into seven key areas: 1) International Rules of the Monetary Game; 2) Banking, Trade and the Making of the Dominant Currency; 3) Capital Flows, the IMF's Institutional View and Alternatives; 4) Payments, Credit and Asset Prices; 5) Financial Stability, Regulations and the Balance Sheet; 6) The Future of the Central Bank Balance Sheet; and 7) Monetary Policy and Reform in Practice. With in-depth discussions of the volatility of capital flows and exchange rates, and the use of balance sheet policy by central banks, they examine relevant research developments and debate policy options.
Book Synopsis Revisiting the Indian Financial Sector by : Paramita Mukherjee
Download or read book Revisiting the Indian Financial Sector written by Paramita Mukherjee and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-01-24 with total page 303 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides perspectives on the latest developments and pertinent issues in the Indian financial sector in current times. The reforms initiated in the nineties in the financial sector have transformed the way financial markets and institutions function today. However, certain sectors like banking, and markets like the capital market have undergone sea changes. The research contributions in this book focus on the issues pertaining to such sectors like banking, NBFCs and the stock market. The opening up of financial markets and emergence of institutional investors have been a significant phenomenon in the Indian context. At this backdrop of increasing financial integration, the impact of financial liberalisation on the overall development of the sector, and how the global policies and events influence the Indian financial sector, are analysed in the book. The emergence of new regulations in the capital markets to instill more discipline and transparency, have also changed the way corporates take financing decisions. For example, regulatory authorities are continuously reviewing norms pertaining to issues like promoters’ shareholding owing to risks arising from excessive leverage and the linkages between financial intermediaries. Corporate governance, environmental aspects are some important additions in corporate financing norms in the recent past. The book incorporates a discussion on this, too. Apart from these, the book also has incorporated several aspects on an emerging concept called financial inclusion, its measurement and constraints to achieve the same. And finally, at the backdrop of the disruption created by the COVID-19 pandemic, the impact on the Indian capital market is also discussed. Contributions are based on rigorous empirical research and incorporate the perspectives of renowned academicians in the field of finance and financial economics across the country. Apart from the research community, this book will also be helpful for financial analysts working in the financial sector to have some idea about the current issues, the direction of research on those issues and different perspectives on them.
Book Synopsis Encyclopedia Of International Economics And Global Trade (In 3 Volumes) by :
Download or read book Encyclopedia Of International Economics And Global Trade (In 3 Volumes) written by and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2020-03-23 with total page 1044 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In an era when trade and currency wars threaten to end a long-standing period of growing trade and capital flows, the economics of international trade, investment and finance have become more important than ever. This three-volume Encyclopedia provides a comprehensive and up-to-date overview of the theory and evidence on the causes and consequences of global trade, and the theory and evidence on the economics of international trade, financial and monetary transactions.It provides, first of all, a comprehensive set of entries explaining the key theoretical concepts in international economics as well as the latest empirical and simulation techniques used in the academic literature. In addition, various entries present the history behind — and the controversies surrounding — the core current global trade and monetary institutions, from the World Trade Organization to the European Monetary Union.The three volumes also provide a serious discussion of today's central policy debates, including the impact of globalization on employment, wages and income distribution, the imposition of controls on international financial flows, the effects of tariffs and protectionist policies, fixed versus flexible exchange rate regimes, and the role of the multinational enterprise on global growth, technical change and income distribution, among many others.
Book Synopsis Unconventional Monetary Policies - Recent Experiences and Prospects by : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Download or read book Unconventional Monetary Policies - Recent Experiences and Prospects written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-04-18 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper addresses three questions about unconventional monetary policies. First, what policies were tried, and with what objectives? Second, were policies effective? And third, what role might these policies continue to play in the future?
Book Synopsis Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP) by : Andreas Jobst
Download or read book Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP) written by Andreas Jobst and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-08-10 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: More than two years ago the European Central Bank (ECB) adopted a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) to achieve its price stability objective. Negative interest rates have so far supported easier financial conditions and contributed to a modest expansion in credit, demonstrating that the zero lower bound is less binding than previously thought. However, interest rate cuts also weigh on bank profitability. Substantial rate cuts may at some point outweigh the benefits from higher asset values and stronger aggregate demand. Further monetary accommodation may need to rely more on credit easing and an expansion of the ECB’s balance sheet rather than substantial additional reductions in the policy rate.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1475589581 Total Pages :160 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (755 download)
Book Synopsis Global Financial Stability Report, April 2013 by : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report, April 2013 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Global Financial Stability Report examines current risks facing the global financial system and policy actions that may mitigate these. It analyzes the key challenges facing financial and nonfinancial firms as they continue to repair their balance sheets. Chapter 2 takes a closer look at whether sovereign credit default swaps markets are good indicators of sovereign credit risk. Chapter 3 examines unconventional monetary policy in some depth, including the policies pursued by the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Author :International Monetary Fund. European Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 : Total Pages :118 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (2 download)
Book Synopsis United Kingdom by : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Download or read book United Kingdom written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-07-08 with total page 118 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The UK economy is approaching a soft landing, following a mild technical recession in 2023. A modest recovery is projected, with 0.7 percent growth in 2024, strengthening to 1.5 percent in 2025. Inflation has fallen rapidly from double digit levels last year in the context of easing energy prices and tight policies. Assuming wage and services inflation continue to moderate from their current elevated levels, inflation should return durably to target in the first half of 2025. The medium-term outlook is affected by significant public spending pressures, notably in healthcare, and the downshift in labor productivity growth post-GFC, exacerbated by recent adverse shocks (Brexit, COVID, energy price surge). Risks to the outlook are balanced. A general election is scheduled on July 4.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 : Total Pages :81 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (2 download)
Book Synopsis New Zealand by : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Download or read book New Zealand written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-08-28 with total page 81 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After a strong post-pandemic recovery, New Zealand has entered a marked, but orderly, policy-induced slowdown. Monetary policy has been appropriately tightened to address the above-target inflation and unsustainably low unemployment rate. The external balance has deteriorated significantly, reflecting the economic overheating of recent years. The housing market continues to correct, and although financial stability risks appear contained, affordability remains a concern.
Book Synopsis Global Waves of Debt by : M. Ayhan Kose
Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Book Synopsis Push Factors and Capital Flows to Emerging Markets by : Mr.Eugenio Cerutti
Download or read book Push Factors and Capital Flows to Emerging Markets written by Mr.Eugenio Cerutti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-22 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the behavior of gross capital inflows across 34 emerging markets (EMs). We first confirm that aggregate inflows to EMs co-move considerably. We then report three findings: (i) the aggregate co-movement conceals significant heterogeneity across asset types as only bank-related and portfolio bond and equity inflows do co-move; (ii) while global push factors in advanced economies mostly explain the common dynamics, their relative importance varies by type of flow; and (iii) the sensitivity to common dynamics varies significantly across borrower countries, with market structure characteristics (especially the composition of the foreign investor base and the level of liquidity) rather than borrower country’s institutional fundamentals strongly affecting sensitivities. Countries relying more on international funds and global banks are found to be more sensitive to push factors. Our findings suggest that EMs need to closely monitor their lenders and investors to assess their inflow exposures to global push factors.
