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Author : Roy Amara
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (132 download)
Download or read book Business Planning for an Uncertain Future. Scenarios and Strategies written by Roy Amara and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Paul Schoemaker
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
ISBN 13 : 0743234189
Total Pages : 329 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (432 download)
Download or read book Profiting From Uncertainty written by Paul Schoemaker and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2012-12-25 with total page 329 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What manager is not anxious about the future? We live in a white-knuckled age of rapid technological change and global instability. But uncertainty is not the enemy, says management expert Paul J. H. Schoemaker. It is where the greatest opportunities are. To unlock these opportunities, however, requires a very different approach to strategy and implementation. In this pioneering book, Dr. Schoemaker presents a systematic approach that combines concepts such as scenario planning, options thinking, and dynamic monitoring to create novel strategies for profiting from ambiguity. Building on his experience with more than one hundred consulting projects in fields ranging from health care to manufacturing, from utilities to financial services, Schoemaker shows how major corporations throughout the world have used his pathbreaking methodology to prepare for an uncertain future and profit from it. In this first comprehensive approach to the subject, Schoemaker shows the reader (1) how to develop and analyze multiple industry scenarios, (2) craft nimble strategies with just the right amount of flexibility, (3) implement them using an options approach, and (4) make real-time adjustments through dynamic monitoring. As a leading academic thinker and practitioner, the author draws on the frontiers of decision science, organization theory, strategy, and cognitive psychology to integrate the most practical contributions these various fields have made to navigating uncertainty. More than any other capability, skill in seizing initiatives in shifting, unpredictable circumstances is the key to success. Profiting from Uncertainty provides a road map to do just that. This book was first published in 2002, well ahead of the mega turmoil that befell the world in 2008 and beyond. The methods and tools described here have been used by many companies and are even more relevant today than when originally published. You can’t do without them.
Author : Hugh Courtney
Publisher : Harvard Business Press
ISBN 13 : 9781578512669
Total Pages : 209 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (126 download)
Download or read book 20/20 Foresight written by Hugh Courtney and published by Harvard Business Press. This book was released on 2001 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the midst of a changing economy, most executives continue to use a strategy toolkit designed for yesterday's more stable marketplace. As a result, strategies emerge that neither manage the risks nor take advantage of the opportunities that arise in highly uncertain times. Now, McKinsey shows strategists how to tailor every aspect of the decision-making process-from formulation to implementation-to the level of uncertainty faced, describes the strategic-planning processes readers can use to monitor, update, and revise strategies as necessary in volatile markets, and includes a toolkit for identifying, developing, and testing new strategy options-complete with guidelines for applying the right tool to the right situation at the right time. A comprehensive approach to strategy development under all possible levels of uncertainty and across all kinds of industries, this is the essential guide for making tough strategic choices in a changing world. Hugh Courtney is an Associate Principal with the Global Strategy Practice at McKinsey Company in Washington D.C.
Author : Rafael Ramírez
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0198745699
Total Pages : 275 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (987 download)
Download or read book Strategic Reframing written by Rafael Ramírez and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2016 with total page 275 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides clear information and guidance on how to do scenario planning to support strategy and public policy. The book describes the Oxford Scenario Planning Approach (OSPA), an intellectually rigorous and practical methodolgy.
Author : Mark W. Johnson
Publisher : Harvard Business Press
ISBN 13 : 163369755X
Total Pages : 147 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (336 download)
Download or read book Lead from the Future written by Mark W. Johnson and published by Harvard Business Press. This book was released on 2020-04-14 with total page 147 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Gold Medal Winner for Best Leadership Book in the 2021 Axiom Business Book Awards Named one of the "Top Ten Technology Books Of 2020" — Forbes Named one of the "10 Best New Business Books of 2020" by Inc. magazine "Johnson and Suskewicz have raised a battle cry for the kind of leadership we need in these uncertain times." -- Sandi Peterson, Member, Board of Directors, Microsoft We all know a visionary leader when we see one. They're bold and prophetic and at the same time pragmatic. They don't just promote change--they drive it, while inspiring and mobilizing others to do the same. Visionaries like Steve Jobs and Jeff Bezos possess a host of innate qualities that make them extraordinary, but what truly sets them apart is their ability to turn vision into action. In Lead from the Future, Innosight's Mark W. Johnson and Josh Suskewicz introduce a new way of thinking and managing, called "future-back," that enables any manager to become a practical visionary. Addressing the many barriers to change that exist in established organizations, they present a systematic approach to overcoming them that includes: The principles and mind-set that allow leadership teams to look beyond typical short-term planning horizons A method for turning emerging challenges into the growth opportunities that can define an organization's future A step-by-step approach for translating a vision into a strategic plan that teams can align around and commit to Ways to ensure that visionary thinking becomes a repeatable organizational capability As practical as it is inspiring, Lead from the Future is the guide you and your team need to develop a vision and translate it into transformative growth.
Author : Bill Ralston
Publisher : South Western Educational Publishing
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 278 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 ( download)
Download or read book The Scenario-planning Handbook written by Bill Ralston and published by South Western Educational Publishing. This book was released on 2006 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The primary objective of the book is to provide decisionmakers the insight and means to apply this technique in changing the way they think about and plan for the future. Scenario-based strategy both confronts and deals with uncertainty and leads to a strategy that is focused but resilient, specific but flexible. The handbook guides readers step by step through the sequence and intricacies of a scenario project and the subsequent strategic decision-making. It explains what scenarios are and are not, when they are needed, as well as their uses and benefits. It also deals with cultural and organizational changes that an organization must undertake to maximize the benefits of scenario-based planning.
Author : John W. Selsky
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1136570578
Total Pages : 314 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (365 download)
Download or read book Business Planning for Turbulent Times written by John W. Selsky and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012-05-23 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The world is increasingly turbulent and complex, awash with disruptions, tipping points and knock-on effects. These range from the impacts of warfare in the Middle East on energy futures, investment and global currencies to the vast and unpredictable impacts of climate change. All this threatens established strategic planning methods. This book is for business and organizational leaders who want and need to think through how best to deal with increasing turbulence, and with the complexity and uncertainty that come with it. The authors explain in clear language how future orientation and, specifically, modern scenario techniques help to address these conditions. They draw on examples from a wide variety of international settings and circumstances including large corporations, inter-governmental organizations, small firms and municipalities. Readers will be inspired to try out scenario approaches themselves to better address the turbulence that affects them and others with whom they work, live and do business. A key feature of the book is the exchange of insights across the academic-practitioner divide. Scholars of scenario thinking and organizational environments will appreciate the authors' conceptual and methodological advances. What has previously remained jargon only accessible to the highest level of corporate and government futures planners here becomes comprehensible to a wider business and practitioner community.
Author : Burkhard Schwenker
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3658028750
Total Pages : 214 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (58 download)
Download or read book Scenario-based Strategic Planning written by Burkhard Schwenker and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-05 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a world characterized by increasing complexity and volatility, managers must be able to flexibly adapt their strategies to changing environmental conditions. Traditional strategic management frameworks often fail in this context. Therefore, we present "scenario-based strategic planning" as a framework for strategic management in an uncertain world. Previous approaches to scenario planning were complex and focused on the long term, but the approach developed by Roland Berger and the Center for Strategy and Scenario Planning at HHL Leipzig Graduate School of Management is different. By designing appropriate tools and integrating scenario planning into strategic planning, we have made our approach less complex and easier for firms to apply. We illustrate the approach with examples from different industries.
Author : Harvard Business Review
Publisher : Harvard Business Press
ISBN 13 : 1633696944
Total Pages : 144 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (336 download)
Download or read book HBR Guide to Thinking Strategically (HBR Guide Series) written by Harvard Business Review and published by Harvard Business Press. This book was released on 2018-12-18 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bring strategy into your daily work. It's your responsibility as a manager to ensure that your work--and the work of your team--aligns with the overarching objectives of your organization. But when you're faced with competing projects and limited time, it's difficult to keep strategy front of mind. How do you keep your eye on the long term amid a sea of short-term demands? The HBR Guide to Thinking Strategically provides practical advice and tips to help you see the big-picture perspective in every aspect of your daily work, from making decisions to setting team priorities to attacking your own to-do list. You'll learn how to: Understand your organization's strategy Align your team around key objectives Focus on the priorities that matter most Spot trends in your company and in your industry Consider future outcomes when making decisions Manage trade-offs Embrace a leadership mindset
Author : Rafael Rami ́rez
Publisher : Earthscan
ISBN 13 : 1849770646
Total Pages : 313 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (497 download)
Download or read book Business Planning for Turbulent Times written by Rafael Rami ́rez and published by Earthscan. This book was released on 2012 with total page 313 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The world is increasingly turbulent and complex, awash with disruptions, tipping points and knock-on effects. These range from the impacts of warfare in the Middle East on energy futures, investment and global currencies to the vast and unpredictable impacts of climate change. All this threatens established strategic planning methods.This book is for business and organizational leaders who want and need to think through how best to deal with increasing turbulence, and with the complexity and uncertainty that come with it. The authors explain in clear language how future orientation and, specifically, modern scenario techniques help to address these conditions. They draw on examples from a wide variety of international settings and circumstances including large corporations, inter-governmental organizations, small firms and municipalities. Readers will be inspired to try out scenario approaches themselves to better address the turbulence that affects them and others with whom they work, live and do business. A key feature of the book is the exchange of insights across the academic-practitioner divide. Scholars of scenario thinking and organizational environments will appreciate the authors' conceptual and methodological advances. What has previously remained jargon only accessible to the highest level of corporate and government futures planners here becomes comprehensible to a wider business and practitioner community.
Author : Roman Peperhove
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3658250747
Total Pages : 262 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (582 download)
Download or read book Envisioning Uncertain Futures written by Roman Peperhove and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-02-26 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contains a collection of projects and scenarios dealing with new risks from emerging technologies, future peace keeping operations, and water distribution issues by combining analysis with dialogue. Special attention is paid to the methodology of narrative scenarios, and the role of imagination in the generation of these scenarios. Appearing as short stories, narrative scenarios include a great amount of explicit and implicit knowledge and they need story telling skills to become consistent, coherent as well as compelling and convincing pictures of the future.
Author : Jens Beckert
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0192552759
Total Pages : 421 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (925 download)
Download or read book Uncertain Futures written by Jens Beckert and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2018-07-11 with total page 421 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertain Futures considers how economic actors visualize the future and decide how to act in conditions of radical uncertainty. It starts from the premise that dynamic capitalist economies are characterized by relentless innovation and novelty and hence exhibit an indeterminacy that cannot be reduced to measurable risk. The organizing question then becomes how economic actors form expectations and make decisions despite the uncertainty they face. This edited volume lays the foundations for a new model of economic reasoning by showing how, in conditions of uncertainty, economic actors combine calculation with imaginaries and narratives to form fictional expectations that coordinate action and provide the confidence to act. It draws on groundbreaking research in economic sociology, economics, anthropology, and psychology to present theoretically grounded empirical case studies. These demonstrate how grand narratives, central bank forward guidance, economic forecasts, finance models, business plans, visions of technological futures, and new era stories influence behaviour and become instruments of power in markets and societies. The market impact of shared calculative devices, social narratives, and contingent imaginaries underlines the rationale for a new form of narrative economics.
Author : Jeremy Stapleton
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781558444058
Total Pages : 100 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (44 download)
Download or read book How to Use Exploratory Scenario Planning (Xsp) written by Jeremy Stapleton and published by . This book was released on 2020-08-15 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Exploratory scenario planning (XSP) can help communities prepare for uncertainties posed by climate change, pandemics, automation, and other unprecedented twenty-first-century challenges. This manual is a comprehensive resource for anyone interested in using this emergent planning approach, which is effective at the local, regional, or organizational level. Through the XSP process, stakeholders envision and develop various potential futures (i.e., scenarios) and consider how to measure and prepare for each, rather than working toward a single shared vision for the future. Through instructive case studies, recommendations, sample workshop agendas, and more, this manual equips would-be practitioners with the background knowledge, procedural guidance, and practical strategies to implement this planning tool successfully. Readers will be prepared to facilitate--or even lead--an effective, impactful XSP process in their own settings.
Author : Gary S. Lynch
Publisher : Archway Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1480839388
Total Pages : 176 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (88 download)
Download or read book Uncertainty Advantage written by Gary S. Lynch and published by Archway Publishing. This book was released on 2017-01-12 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk and uncertainty may sound scary, but todays best business leaders are navigating both to gain strategic advantage over competitorsand you can, too. This guide for business leaders examines risk and opportunity through the lens of some of the worlds most respected visionaries, including Howard Schultz, Andy Grove, Peter Huntsman, John Krafcik, Peter Leibinger, Doug Hepper, and many more. These visionaries looked beyond financial performance to see opportunitiesand they did so by understanding uncertainty. Then, they decisively acted to create measurable results that coincided with the future they envisioned. Find out how they did it, and learn how to: identify, define, and convert uncertainty into value; become more opportunistic when facing uncertainty; develop the skill to spot where advantages are likely to emerge; and create an environment where managers and leaders complement each other. Filled with case studies on companies such as Hyundai, Starbucks, Roche, and Intel, this guide delivers proven ways to create value and leverage uncertainty. It is the culmination of a decade of research and interaction with dozens of companies and growth leaders who prove that pursuing a market driven strategy to navigating uncertainty will gain measurable market advantage.
Author : Rita Gunther McGrath
Publisher : Harper Business
ISBN 13 : 0358022339
Total Pages : 277 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (58 download)
Download or read book Seeing Around Corners written by Rita Gunther McGrath and published by Harper Business. This book was released on 2019 with total page 277 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first prescriptive, innovative guide to seeing inflection points before they happen--and how to harness these disruptive influences to give your company a strategic advantage. Paradigmatic shifts in the business landscape, known as inflection points, can either create new, entrepreneurial opportunities (see Amazon and Netflix) or they can lead to devastating consequences (e.g., Blockbuster and Toys R Us). Only those leaders who can "see around corners"-that is, spot the disruptive inflection points developing before they hit-are poised to succeed in this market. Columbia Business School Professor and corporate consultant Rita McGrath contends that inflection points, though they may seem sudden, are not random. Every seemingly overnight shift is the final stage of a process that has been subtly building for some time. Armed with the right strategies and tools, smart businesses can see these inflection points coming and use them to gain a competitive advantage. Seeing Around Corners is the first hands-on guide to anticipating, understanding, and capitalizing on the inflection points shaping the marketplace.
Author : George Cairns
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319490672
Total Pages : 287 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (194 download)
Download or read book Scenario Thinking written by George Cairns and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-10-13 with total page 287 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Develops scenario planning methods in ways that link scenario analysis to improved decision making, engage time-poor senior decision makers, attenuate decision makers’ tendency to deflect responsibility for bleak, negative scenario outcomes, and enhance causal analysis within scenario-storyline development. What if? Two of the most powerful – and frightening – words in business. Almost as bad as “I didn’t see that coming.” Some things that transform the marketplace overnight come from nowhere. Some things that create potentially critical under-performance are genuinely unforeseeable. Sometimes it is impossible to predict how a change in an organizational strategy will play out. Some things and sometimes – but not many and not often. Decision makers in organizations face more-and-more complex and ambiguous problems that need to be addressed under time pressure - and the need for practical decision support has become essential. The range of methods in this book will enable you to be prepared, proactive and resilient no matter what the future brings. Based on up-to-date academic research and years of application and iteration in the real world, this book, illustrated with examples of the value delivered in Europe, Australia and the Middle East, will transfer practical skills in scenario thinking using step-by-step instructions. This thoroughly revised and expanded second edition introduces these new approaches in detail, with clear guidelines and examples to enable the reader to select and implement the most appropriate scenario method to suit the issue at hand – considering the timeframe for its investigation, the resources available and the outcomes expected.
Author : Jens Beckert
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0192552740
Total Pages : 346 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (925 download)
Download or read book Uncertain Futures written by Jens Beckert and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2018-07-05 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertain Futures considers how economic actors visualize the future and decide how to act in conditions of radical uncertainty. It starts from the premise that dynamic capitalist economies are characterized by relentless innovation and novelty and hence exhibit an indeterminacy that cannot be reduced to measurable risk. The organizing question then becomes how economic actors form expectations and make decisions despite the uncertainty they face. This edited volume lays the foundations for a new model of economic reasoning by showing how, in conditions of uncertainty, economic actors combine calculation with imaginaries and narratives to form fictional expectations that coordinate action and provide the confidence to act. It draws on groundbreaking research in economic sociology, economics, anthropology, and psychology to present theoretically grounded empirical case studies. These demonstrate how grand narratives, central bank forward guidance, economic forecasts, finance models, business plans, visions of technological futures, and new era stories influence behaviour and become instruments of power in markets and societies. The market impact of shared calculative devices, social narratives, and contingent imaginaries underlines the rationale for a new form of narrative economics.
