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Bubbles Crashes And Information Contagion In Large Group Asset Market Experiments
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Book Synopsis Bubbles, Crashes and Information Contagion in Large-Group Asset Market Experiments by : Cars H. Hommes
Download or read book Bubbles, Crashes and Information Contagion in Large-Group Asset Market Experiments written by Cars H. Hommes and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the emergence of bubbles in a laboratory experiment with large groups of individuals. The realized price is the aggregation of the forecasts of a group of individuals, with positive expectations feedback through speculative demand. When prices deviate from fundamental value, a random selection of participants receives news about overvaluation. Our findings are: (i) large asset bubbles occur in large groups, (ii) information contagion through news affects behaviour and may break the coordination on a bubble, (iii) time varying heterogeneity provides an accurate explanation of bubble formation and crashes, and (iv) bubbles are strongly amplified by coordination on trend-extrapolation.
Book Synopsis Bubbles and Crashes in Experimental Asset Markets by : Stefan Palan
Download or read book Bubbles and Crashes in Experimental Asset Markets written by Stefan Palan and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-10-03 with total page 179 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes a laboratory experiment designed to test the causes and properties of bubbles in financial markets and explores the question whether it is possible to design markets which avoid such bubbles and crashes. In the experiment, subjects were given the opportunity to trade in a stock market modeled after the seminal work of Smith et al. (1988). To account for the increasing importance of online betting sites, subjects were also allowed to trade in a digital option market. The outcomes shed new light on how subjects form and update their expectations, placing special emphasis on the bounded rationality of investors. Various analytical bubble measures found in the literature are collected, calculated, classified and presented for the first time. The very interesting new bubble measures "Dispersion Ratio", "Overpriced Transactions" and "Underpriced Transactions" are developed, making the book an important step towards the research goal of preventing bubbles and crashes in financial markets.
Book Synopsis Cognitive Bubbles by : Ciril Bosch-Rosa
Download or read book Cognitive Bubbles written by Ciril Bosch-Rosa and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Smith et al. (1988) reported large bubbles and crashes in experimental asset markets, a result that has been replicated many times. Here we test whether the occurrence of bubbles depends on the experimental subjects' cognitive sophistication. In a two-part experiment, we first run a battery of tests to assess the subjects' cognitive sophistication and classify them into low or high levels. We then invite them separately to two asset market experiments populated only by subjects with either low or high cognitive sophistication. We observe classic bubble and crash patterns in the sessions populated by subjects with low levels of cognitive sophistication. Yet, no bubbles or crashes are observed with our sophisticated subjects, indicating that cognitive sophistication of the experimental market participants has a strong impact on price efficiency.
Book Synopsis Can Markets Learn to Avoid Bubbles? by : Ross M. Miller
Download or read book Can Markets Learn to Avoid Bubbles? written by Ross M. Miller and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One of the most striking results in experimental economics is the ease with which market bubbles form in a laboratory setting and the difficulty of preventing them. This article re-examines bubble experiments in light of the results of an earlier series of market experiments that examine how learning occurs in markets characterized by an asymmetry of information between buyers and sellers, such as found in Akerlof's lemons model and Spence's signaling model and extends the arguments put forth in the author's book, Paving Wall Street: Experimental Economics and the Quest for the Perfect Market.Markets with asymmetric information are incomplete because they lack markets for specific levels of product quality. Such markets either lump all qualities together (lemons) or use external indications of quality to separate them (signaling). Similarly, the markets used in bubble experiments are incomplete in that they are lacking a complete set of forward or futures markets, depriving traders of the information supplied by the prices in those markets. Preliminary experimental results suggest that the addition of a single forward market can sometimes mitigate bubble formation and this article suggests more extensive research in this direction is warranted. Market bubbles outside of the laboratory usually are found in markets in with forward and futures markets that are either legally restricted or otherwise limited.Experimentation in markets with asymmetric information also indicates that the ability of subjects to learn how to send and receive signals can be enhanced by changing the way that market information is presented to them. We explore how this result might be used to help asset markets learn to avoid bubbles.
Book Synopsis Bubbles in Asset Markets - A critical valuation of experimental studies by : Daniel Hosp
Download or read book Bubbles in Asset Markets - A critical valuation of experimental studies written by Daniel Hosp and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2012-09-11 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2012 in the subject Business economics - Banking, Stock Exchanges, Insurance, Accounting, grade: 1,00, University of Innsbruck, language: English, abstract: Bubbles in Asset Market gibt eine kurzen Überblick darüber, wie "Blasen" in Finanzmärkten entstehen könnne und wie deren Entstehung anhand von Experimenten bisher getestet wurde. Darauf aufbauen gibt es empfehlungen für eine geändertes Design der Experimente um bessre Ergebnisse erzielen zu können.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Experimental Finance by : Füllbrunn, Sascha
Download or read book Handbook of Experimental Finance written by Füllbrunn, Sascha and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2022-10-13 with total page 451 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With an in-depth overview of the past, present and future of the field, The Handbook of Experimental Finance provides a comprehensive analysis of the current topics, methodologies, findings, and breakthroughs in research conducted with the help of experimental finance methodology. Leading experts suggest innovative ways of designing, implementing, analyzing, and interpreting finance experiments.
Book Synopsis Essays on Bubbles and Crashes in Experimental Asset Markets by : Kun Zhang
Download or read book Essays on Bubbles and Crashes in Experimental Asset Markets written by Kun Zhang and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Essays on Bubbles and Crashes in Experimental Asset Markets by : Kun Zhang (Ph.D.)
Download or read book Essays on Bubbles and Crashes in Experimental Asset Markets written by Kun Zhang (Ph.D.) and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The main result is that team decision-making does not result in smaller price bubbles. However team decision-making result in less variance among markets (sessions). Further more, my experimental design allows us to record the chat dialogues, which enable us to have insight into team decision-making. The content of the messages allows us explore the reasons behind traders' asks and bids.
Book Synopsis Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes by : Harold L. Vogel
Download or read book Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes written by Harold L. Vogel and published by Palgrave Macmillan. This book was released on 2022-12-19 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economists broadly define financial asset price bubbles as episodes in which prices rise with notable rapidity and depart from historically established asset valuation multiples and relationships. Financial economists have for decades attempted to study and interpret bubbles through the prisms of rational expectations, efficient markets, equilibrium, arbitrage, and capital asset pricing models, but they have not made much if any progress toward a consistent and reliable theory that explains how and why bubbles (and crashes) evolve and are defined, measured, and compared. This book develops a new and different approach that is based on the central notion that bubbles and crashes reflect urgent short-side rationing, which means that, as such extreme conditions unfold, considerations of quantities owned or not owned begin to displace considerations of price.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Experimental Economics by : Arthur Schram
Download or read book Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Experimental Economics written by Arthur Schram and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2019 with total page 448 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume offers a comprehensive review of experimental methods in economics. Its 21 chapters cover theoretical and practical issues such as incentives, theory and policy development, data analysis, recruitment, software and laboratory organization. The Handbook includes separate parts on procedures, field experiments and neuroeconomics, and provides the first methodological overview of replication studies and a novel set-valued equilibrium concept. As a whole, the combination of basic methods and current developments will aid both beginners and advanced experimental economists.
Book Synopsis Nonlinear Dynamics and Evolutionary Economics by : Richard Hollis Day
Download or read book Nonlinear Dynamics and Evolutionary Economics written by Richard Hollis Day and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 1993 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Advances in physics, computers, and mathematics have made it possible to illustrate an astonishing array of potential behavior that can occur when nonlinear interactions are present. As Prigogine explains from a physicist's perspective, the fundamental role of instability and bounded rationality provide more precise understanding for evolution and changes. This volume considers these developments from various fields in the context of economic science. The work starts with a general non-mathematical discussion, introducing the major themes--nonlinearity, dynamical systems, and evolution in economic processes. The work continues with nonlinear analysis of macroeconomic growth and fluctuations. It describes analyses of economic adaptation, learning, and self-organization. The volume also scrutinizes a specific market--equities using nonlinear analysis, controlled experiments, and statistical inference when nonlinearity plays an essential role in data generation. The volume closes with an historical reflection by Richard Goodwin and a roundtable discussion on basic issues and new challenges in nonlinear economic dynamics.
Book Synopsis Computational Economics: Heterogeneous Agent Modeling by : Cars Hommes
Download or read book Computational Economics: Heterogeneous Agent Modeling written by Cars Hommes and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-06-27 with total page 836 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Computational Economics: Heterogeneous Agent Modeling, Volume Four, focuses on heterogeneous agent models, emphasizing recent advances in macroeconomics (including DSGE), finance, empirical validation and experiments, networks and related applications. Capturing the advances made since the publication of Volume Two (Tesfatsion & Judd, 2006), it provides high-level literature with sections devoted to Macroeconomics, Finance, Empirical Validation and Experiments, Networks, and other applications, including Innovation Diffusion in Heterogeneous Populations, Market Design and Electricity Markets, and a final section on Perspectives on Heterogeneity. Helps readers fully understand the dynamic properties of realistically rendered economic systems Emphasizes detailed specifications of structural conditions, institutional arrangements and behavioral dispositions Provides broad assessments that can lead researchers to recognize new synergies and opportunities
Book Synopsis Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications by : Mr.Stijn Claessens
Download or read book Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-30 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
Book Synopsis Famous First Bubbles by : Peter M. Garber
Download or read book Famous First Bubbles written by Peter M. Garber and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2001-08-24 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The jargon of economics and finance contains numerous colorful terms for market-asset prices at odds with any reasonable economic explanation. Examples include "bubble," "tulipmania," "chain letter," "Ponzi scheme," "panic," "crash," "herding," and "irrational exuberance." Although such a term suggests that an event is inexplicably crowd-driven, what it really means, claims Peter Garber, is that we have grasped a near-empty explanation rather than expend the effort to understand the event. In this book Garber offers market-fundamental explanations for the three most famous bubbles: the Dutch Tulipmania (1634-1637), the Mississippi Bubble (1719-1720), and the closely connected South Sea Bubble (1720). He focuses most closely on the Tulipmania because it is the event that most modern observers view as clearly crazy. Comparing the pattern of price declines for initially rare eighteenth-century bulbs to that of seventeenth-century bulbs, he concludes that the extremely high prices for rare bulbs and their rapid decline reflects normal pricing behavior. In the cases of the Mississippi and South Sea Bubbles, he describes the asset markets and financial manipulations involved in these episodes and casts them as market fundamentals.
Book Synopsis Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics by : George W. Evans
Download or read book Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics written by George W. Evans and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-01-06 with total page 440 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A crucial challenge for economists is figuring out how people interpret the world and form expectations that will likely influence their economic activity. Inflation, asset prices, exchange rates, investment, and consumption are just some of the economic variables that are largely explained by expectations. Here George Evans and Seppo Honkapohja bring new explanatory power to a variety of expectation formation models by focusing on the learning factor. Whereas the rational expectations paradigm offers the prevailing method to determining expectations, it assumes very theoretical knowledge on the part of economic actors. Evans and Honkapohja contribute to a growing body of research positing that households and firms learn by making forecasts using observed data, updating their forecast rules over time in response to errors. This book is the first systematic development of the new statistical learning approach. Depending on the particular economic structure, the economy may converge to a standard rational-expectations or a "rational bubble" solution, or exhibit persistent learning dynamics. The learning approach also provides tools to assess the importance of new models with expectational indeterminacy, in which expectations are an independent cause of macroeconomic fluctuations. Moreover, learning dynamics provide a theory for the evolution of expectations and selection between alternative equilibria, with implications for business cycles, asset price volatility, and policy. This book provides an authoritative treatment of this emerging field, developing the analytical techniques in detail and using them to synthesize and extend existing research.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Financial Markets: Dynamics and Evolution by : Thorsten Hens
Download or read book Handbook of Financial Markets: Dynamics and Evolution written by Thorsten Hens and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2009-06-12 with total page 607 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The models of portfolio selection and asset price dynamics in this volume seek to explain the market dynamics of asset prices. Presenting a range of analytical, empirical, and numerical techniques as well as several different modeling approaches, the authors depict the state of debate on the market selection hypothesis. By explicitly assuming the heterogeneity of investors, they present models that are descriptive and normative as well, making the volume useful for both finance theorists and financial practitioners. Explains the market dynamics of asset prices, offering insights about asset management approaches Assumes a heterogeneity of investors that yields descriptive and normative models of portfolio selections and asset pricing dynamics
Book Synopsis Behavioural Macroeconomics by : Paul De Grauwe
Download or read book Behavioural Macroeconomics written by Paul De Grauwe and published by . This book was released on 2019-10-17 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modern macroeconomics has been based on the paradigm of the rational individual capable of understanding the complexity of the world. This has created a very shallow theory of the business cycle in which nothing happens in the macroeconomy unless shocks occur from outside. Behavioural Macroeconomics: Theory and Policy uses a different paradigm. It assumes that individual agents experience cognitive limitations preventing them from having rational expectations. Instead these individuals use simple rules of behaviour. Behavioural Macroeconomics introduces rationality by allowing individuals to learn from their mistakes and to switch to the rules that perform better. It introduces the idea of endogenously generated "animals spirits" that drive the business cycle and are in turn influenced by it, and applies this model to shed new light on a number of important issues. It analyses the role of fiscal policy in stabilizing the economy while maintaining debt sustainability; expands the model to include a banking sector and show how banks amplify the booms and busts; and explains how animal spirits help to synchronize the business cycles across countries. The model set out in Behavioural Macroeconomics leads to very different policy implications from the mainstream macroeconomic model. It shows how policymakers have a responsibility to stabilize an otherwise unstable system.
