Bernoullis Fallacy

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Bernoulli's Fallacy

Author : Aubrey Clayton
Publisher : Columbia University Press
ISBN 13 : 0231553358
Total Pages : 641 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (315 download)

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Book Synopsis Bernoulli's Fallacy by : Aubrey Clayton

Download or read book Bernoulli's Fallacy written by Aubrey Clayton and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2021-08-03 with total page 641 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is a logical flaw in the statistical methods used across experimental science. This fault is not a minor academic quibble: it underlies a reproducibility crisis now threatening entire disciplines. In an increasingly statistics-reliant society, this same deeply rooted error shapes decisions in medicine, law, and public policy with profound consequences. The foundation of the problem is a misunderstanding of probability and its role in making inferences from observations. Aubrey Clayton traces the history of how statistics went astray, beginning with the groundbreaking work of the seventeenth-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. Clayton recounts the feuds among rival schools of statistics, exploring the surprisingly human problems that gave rise to the discipline and the all-too-human shortcomings that derailed it. He highlights how influential nineteenth- and twentieth-century figures developed a statistical methodology they claimed was purely objective in order to silence critics of their political agendas, including eugenics. Clayton provides a clear account of the mathematics and logic of probability, conveying complex concepts accessibly for readers interested in the statistical methods that frame our understanding of the world. He contends that we need to take a Bayesian approach—that is, to incorporate prior knowledge when reasoning with incomplete information—in order to resolve the crisis. Ranging across math, philosophy, and culture, Bernoulli’s Fallacy explains why something has gone wrong with how we use data—and how to fix it.

Bernoulli's Fallacy

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780231199957
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (999 download)

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Book Synopsis Bernoulli's Fallacy by :

Download or read book Bernoulli's Fallacy written by and published by . This book was released on 2022-09-20 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Bernoulli's Fallacy

Author : Aubrey Clayton
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780231199940
Total Pages : 368 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (999 download)

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Book Synopsis Bernoulli's Fallacy by : Aubrey Clayton

Download or read book Bernoulli's Fallacy written by Aubrey Clayton and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Aubrey Clayton traces the history of the flaw that underlies modern statistics, beginning with the seventeenth-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. Ranging across math, philosophy, and culture, Bernoulli's Fallacy explains why something has gone wrong with how we use data--and how to fix it.

The Art of Conjecturing, Together with Letter to a Friend on Sets in Court Tennis

Author : Jacob Bernoulli
Publisher : JHU Press
ISBN 13 : 9780801882357
Total Pages : 468 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (823 download)

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Book Synopsis The Art of Conjecturing, Together with Letter to a Friend on Sets in Court Tennis by : Jacob Bernoulli

Download or read book The Art of Conjecturing, Together with Letter to a Friend on Sets in Court Tennis written by Jacob Bernoulli and published by JHU Press. This book was released on 2006 with total page 468 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Part I reprints and reworks Huygens's On Reckoning in Games of Chance. Part II offers a thorough treatment of the mathematics of combinations and permutations, including the numbers since known as "Bernoulli numbers." In Part III, Bernoulli solves more complicated problems of games of chance using that mathematics. In the final part, Bernoulli's crowning achievement in mathematical probability becomes manifest he applies the mathematics of games of chance to the problems of epistemic probability in civil, moral, and economic matters, proving what we now know as the weak law of large numbers."

Probability Theory

Author : Nikolai Dokuchaev
Publisher : World Scientific Publishing Company
ISBN 13 : 9814678058
Total Pages : 224 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (146 download)

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Book Synopsis Probability Theory by : Nikolai Dokuchaev

Download or read book Probability Theory written by Nikolai Dokuchaev and published by World Scientific Publishing Company. This book was released on 2015-06-12 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a systematic, self-sufficient and yet short presentation of the mainstream topics on introductory Probability Theory with some selected topics from Mathematical Statistics. It is suitable for a 10- to 14-week course for second- or third-year undergraduate students in Science, Mathematics, Statistics, Finance, or Economics, who have completed some introductory course in Calculus. There is a sufficient number of problems and solutions to cover weekly tutorials.

A Student’s Guide to Bayesian Statistics

Author : Ben Lambert
Publisher : SAGE
ISBN 13 : 1526418266
Total Pages : 744 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (264 download)

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Book Synopsis A Student’s Guide to Bayesian Statistics by : Ben Lambert

Download or read book A Student’s Guide to Bayesian Statistics written by Ben Lambert and published by SAGE. This book was released on 2018-04-20 with total page 744 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Supported by a wealth of learning features, exercises, and visual elements as well as online video tutorials and interactive simulations, this book is the first student-focused introduction to Bayesian statistics. Without sacrificing technical integrity for the sake of simplicity, the author draws upon accessible, student-friendly language to provide approachable instruction perfectly aimed at statistics and Bayesian newcomers. Through a logical structure that introduces and builds upon key concepts in a gradual way and slowly acclimatizes students to using R and Stan software, the book covers: An introduction to probability and Bayesian inference Understanding Bayes′ rule Nuts and bolts of Bayesian analytic methods Computational Bayes and real-world Bayesian analysis Regression analysis and hierarchical methods This unique guide will help students develop the statistical confidence and skills to put the Bayesian formula into practice, from the basic concepts of statistical inference to complex applications of analyses.

Clinical Versus Statistical Prediction

Author : Paul Meehl
Publisher : Echo Point Books & Media
ISBN 13 : 9781626542303
Total Pages : 164 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (423 download)

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Book Synopsis Clinical Versus Statistical Prediction by : Paul Meehl

Download or read book Clinical Versus Statistical Prediction written by Paul Meehl and published by Echo Point Books & Media. This book was released on 2015-09-10 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Clinical versus Statistical Prediction" is Paul Meehl's famous examination of benefits and disutilities related to the different ways of combining information to make predictions. It is a clarifying analysis as relevant today as when it first appeared. A major methodological problem for clinical psychology concerns the relation between clinical and actuarial methods of arriving at diagnoses and predicting behavior. Without prejudging the question as to whether these methods are fundamentally different, we can at least set forth the obvious distinctions between them in practical applications. The problem is to predict how a person is going to behave: What is the most accurate way to go about this task? "Clinical versus Statistical Prediction" offers a penetrating and thorough look at the pros and cons of human judgment versus actuarial integration of information as applied to the prediction problem. Widely considered the leading text on the subject, Paul Meehl's landmark analysis is reprinted here in its entirety, including his updated preface written forty-two years after the first publication of the book. This classic work is a must-have for students and practitioners interested in better understanding human behavior, for anyone wanting to make the most accurate decisions from all sorts of data, and for those interested in the ethics and intricacies of prediction. As Meehl puts it, " "When one is dealing with human lives and life opportunities, it is immoral to adopt a mode of decision-making which has been demonstrated repeatedly to be either inferior in success rate or, when equal, costlier to the client or the taxpayer.""

Information Theory, Inference and Learning Algorithms

Author : David J. C. MacKay
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521642989
Total Pages : 694 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (429 download)

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Book Synopsis Information Theory, Inference and Learning Algorithms by : David J. C. MacKay

Download or read book Information Theory, Inference and Learning Algorithms written by David J. C. MacKay and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2003-09-25 with total page 694 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Table of contents

One, Two, Three

Author : David Berlinski
Publisher : Vintage
ISBN 13 : 1400079101
Total Pages : 225 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis One, Two, Three by : David Berlinski

Download or read book One, Two, Three written by David Berlinski and published by Vintage. This book was released on 2012-05-01 with total page 225 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The acclaimed author of A Tour of the Calculus and The Infinite Ascent offers an enlightening and enthralling tour of the basics of mathematics, and reveals a world of fascination in fundamental mathematical ideas. One, Two, Three is David Berlinski’s captivating exploration of the foundation of mathematics, its fundamental ideas, and why they matter. By unraveling the complex answers to these most elementary questions—What is a number? How do addition, subtraction, and other functions actually work? What are geometry and logic?—Berlinski reveals the intricacy behind their seemingly simple exteriors. Peppered with enlightening historical anecdotes and asides on some of history’s most fascinating mathematicians, One, Two, Three, revels in the beauty of numbers as Berlinski shows us how and why these often slippery concepts are as essential to the field of mathematics as to who we are.

How Do We Know?

Author : James K. Dew Jr.
Publisher : InterVarsity Press
ISBN 13 : 0830851895
Total Pages : 173 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (38 download)

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Book Synopsis How Do We Know? by : James K. Dew Jr.

Download or read book How Do We Know? written by James K. Dew Jr. and published by InterVarsity Press. This book was released on 2020-11-17 with total page 173 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What does it mean to know something? Can we have confidence in our knowledge? Epistemology, the study of knowledge, can often seem like a daunting subject. And yet few topics are more basic to human life. We are inquisitive creatures by nature, and the unending quest for truth leads us to raise difficult questions about the quest itself. What are the conditions, sources, and limits of our knowledge? Do our beliefs need to be rationally justified? Can we have certainty? In this primer on epistemology, James Dew and Mark Foreman guide readers through this discipline in philosophy. This second edition has been expanded with new material and now serves as the first volume in IVP's Questions in Christian Philosophy series. By asking basic questions and using clear, jargon-free language, they provide an entry into one of the most important issues in contemporary philosophy. The Questions in Christian Philosophy Series features introductory textbooks that offer students a Christian perspective on the various branches of philosophy, enabling them as they seek to understand all facets of life including existence, knowledge, ethics, art, and more.

The Theory of Probability

Author : Harold Jeffreys
Publisher : OUP Oxford
ISBN 13 : 0191589675
Total Pages : 474 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (915 download)

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Book Synopsis The Theory of Probability by : Harold Jeffreys

Download or read book The Theory of Probability written by Harold Jeffreys and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 1998-08-06 with total page 474 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Another title in the reissued Oxford Classic Texts in the Physical Sciences series, Jeffrey's Theory of Probability, first published in 1939, was the first to develop a fundamental theory of scientific inference based on the ideas of Bayesian statistics. His ideas were way ahead of their time and it is only in the past ten years that the subject of Bayes' factors has been significantly developed and extended. Until recently the two schools of statistics (Bayesian and Frequentist) were distinctly different and set apart. Recent work (aided by increased computer power and availability) has changed all that and today's graduate students and researchers all require an understanding of Bayesian ideas. This book is their starting point.

Anxiety and the Equation

Author : Eric Johnson
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262546612
Total Pages : 193 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (625 download)

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Book Synopsis Anxiety and the Equation by : Eric Johnson

Download or read book Anxiety and the Equation written by Eric Johnson and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2022-11-01 with total page 193 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A man and his equation: the anxiety-plagued nineteenth-century physicist who contributed significantly to our understanding of the second law of thermodynamics. Ludwig Boltzmann's grave in Vienna's Central Cemetery bears a cryptic epitaph: S = k log W. This equation was Boltzmann's great discovery, and it contributed significantly to our understanding of the second law of thermodynamics. In Anxiety and the Equation, Eric Johnson tells the story of a man and his equation: the anxiety-plagued nineteenth-century physicist who did his most important work as he struggled with mental illness. Johnson explains that “S” in Boltzmann's equation refers to entropy, and that entropy is the central quantity in the second law of thermodynamics. The second law is always on, running in the background of our lives, providing a way to differentiate between past and future. We know that the future will be a state of higher entropy than the past, and we have Boltzmann to thank for discovering the equation that underlies that fundamental trend. Johnson, accessibly and engagingly, reassembles Boltzmann's equation from its various components and presents episodes from Boltzmann's life—beginning at the end, with “Boltzmann Kills Himself” and “Boltzmann Is Buried (Not Once, But Twice).” Johnson explains the second law in simple terms, introduces key concepts through thought experiments, and explores Boltzmann's work. He argues that Boltzmann, diagnosed by his contemporaries as neurasthenic, suffered from an anxiety disorder. He was, says Johnson, a man of reason who suffered from irrational concerns about his work, worrying especially about opposition from the scientific establishment of the day. Johnson's clear and concise explanations will acquaint the nonspecialist reader with such seemingly esoteric concepts as microstates, macrostates, fluctuations, the distribution of energy, log functions, and equilibrium. He describes Boltzmann's relationships with other scientists, including Max Planck and Henri Poincaré, and, finally, imagines “an alternative ending,” in which Boltzmann lived on and died of natural causes.

A History of Data Visualization and Graphic Communication

Author : Michael Friendly
Publisher : Harvard University Press
ISBN 13 : 0674259041
Total Pages : 337 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (742 download)

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Book Synopsis A History of Data Visualization and Graphic Communication by : Michael Friendly

Download or read book A History of Data Visualization and Graphic Communication written by Michael Friendly and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2021-06-08 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive history of data visualization—its origins, rise, and effects on the ways we think about and solve problems. With complex information everywhere, graphics have become indispensable to our daily lives. Navigation apps show real-time, interactive traffic data. A color-coded map of exit polls details election balloting down to the county level. Charts communicate stock market trends, government spending, and the dangers of epidemics. A History of Data Visualization and Graphic Communication tells the story of how graphics left the exclusive confines of scientific research and became ubiquitous. As data visualization spread, it changed the way we think. Michael Friendly and Howard Wainer take us back to the beginnings of graphic communication in the mid-seventeenth century, when the Dutch cartographer Michael Florent van Langren created the first chart of statistical data, which showed estimates of the distance from Rome to Toledo. By 1786 William Playfair had invented the line graph and bar chart to explain trade imports and exports. In the nineteenth century, the “golden age” of data display, graphics found new uses in tracking disease outbreaks and understanding social issues. Friendly and Wainer make the case that the explosion in graphical communication both reinforced and was advanced by a cognitive revolution: visual thinking. Across disciplines, people realized that information could be conveyed more effectively by visual displays than by words or tables of numbers. Through stories and illustrations, A History of Data Visualization and Graphic Communication details the 400-year evolution of an intellectual framework that has become essential to both science and society at large.

Causation in Science and the Methods of Scientific Discovery

Author : Rani Lill Anjum
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN 13 : 0198733666
Total Pages : 295 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (987 download)

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Book Synopsis Causation in Science and the Methods of Scientific Discovery by : Rani Lill Anjum

Download or read book Causation in Science and the Methods of Scientific Discovery written by Rani Lill Anjum and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2018-10-18 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Causation is the main foundation upon which the possibility of science rests. Without causation, there would be no scientific understanding, explanation, prediction, nor application in new technologies. How we discover causal connections is no easy matter, however. Causation often lies hiddenfrom view and it is vital that we adopt the right methods for uncovering it. The choice of methods will inevitably reflect what one takes causation to be, making an accurate account of causation an even more pressing matter. This enquiry informs the correct norms for an empirical study of the world. In Causation in Science and the Methods of Scientific Discovery, Rani Lill Anjum and Stephen Mumford propose nine new norms of scientific discovery. A number of existing methodological and philosophical orthodoxies are challenged as they argue that progress in science is being held back by an overlysimplistic philosophy of causation.

Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way

Author : Will Kurt
Publisher : No Starch Press
ISBN 13 : 1593279566
Total Pages : 258 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (932 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way by : Will Kurt

Download or read book Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way written by Will Kurt and published by No Starch Press. This book was released on 2019-07-09 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fun guide to learning Bayesian statistics and probability through unusual and illustrative examples. Probability and statistics are increasingly important in a huge range of professions. But many people use data in ways they don't even understand, meaning they aren't getting the most from it. Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way will change that. This book will give you a complete understanding of Bayesian statistics through simple explanations and un-boring examples. Find out the probability of UFOs landing in your garden, how likely Han Solo is to survive a flight through an asteroid shower, how to win an argument about conspiracy theories, and whether a burglary really was a burglary, to name a few examples. By using these off-the-beaten-track examples, the author actually makes learning statistics fun. And you'll learn real skills, like how to: - How to measure your own level of uncertainty in a conclusion or belief - Calculate Bayes theorem and understand what it's useful for - Find the posterior, likelihood, and prior to check the accuracy of your conclusions - Calculate distributions to see the range of your data - Compare hypotheses and draw reliable conclusions from them Next time you find yourself with a sheaf of survey results and no idea what to do with them, turn to Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way to get the most value from your data.

Games, Gods and Gambling

Author : Florence Nightingale David
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781258512644
Total Pages : 302 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (126 download)

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Book Synopsis Games, Gods and Gambling by : Florence Nightingale David

Download or read book Games, Gods and Gambling written by Florence Nightingale David and published by . This book was released on 2012-10-01 with total page 302 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Additional Contributors Are Jean Edmiston, E. H. Thorne, And Maxine Merrington.

Statistics Done Wrong

Author : Alex Reinhart
Publisher : No Starch Press
ISBN 13 : 1593276206
Total Pages : 177 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (932 download)

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Book Synopsis Statistics Done Wrong by : Alex Reinhart

Download or read book Statistics Done Wrong written by Alex Reinhart and published by No Starch Press. This book was released on 2015-03-01 with total page 177 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Scientific progress depends on good research, and good research needs good statistics. But statistical analysis is tricky to get right, even for the best and brightest of us. You'd be surprised how many scientists are doing it wrong. Statistics Done Wrong is a pithy, essential guide to statistical blunders in modern science that will show you how to keep your research blunder-free. You'll examine embarrassing errors and omissions in recent research, learn about the misconceptions and scientific politics that allow these mistakes to happen, and begin your quest to reform the way you and your peers do statistics. You'll find advice on: –Asking the right question, designing the right experiment, choosing the right statistical analysis, and sticking to the plan –How to think about p values, significance, insignificance, confidence intervals, and regression –Choosing the right sample size and avoiding false positives –Reporting your analysis and publishing your data and source code –Procedures to follow, precautions to take, and analytical software that can help Scientists: Read this concise, powerful guide to help you produce statistically sound research. Statisticians: Give this book to everyone you know. The first step toward statistics done right is Statistics Done Wrong.