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Asymmetric Return Response To Expected Risk
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Book Synopsis Asymmetric Return Response to Expected Risk by : Mehmet F. Dicle
Download or read book Asymmetric Return Response to Expected Risk written by Mehmet F. Dicle and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Purpose: As investors' fear have an impact on their risk-return tradeoff, this fear leaves markets susceptible to sudden and large fluctuations. Markets develop a long- run normal and regulatory actions should be different for non-normal trading days. Regulators should amend their precautionary methods to recognize the difference in investor behavior for high-risk periods versus low-risk periods.Design/methodology/approach: We empirically show the difference in investor response to changes in expected risk as a function of level of risk. We then show dif- ferent return patterns for high-risk and low-risk days. Our approach is implemented to evaluate whether Investors' reaction is the same to changes in risk during high-risk periods versus during low-risk periods.Findings: The results indicate that the negative return response to incremental increases in risk is significantly higher for periods of high versus low expected risk, with high defined as risk levels above long-run normal.Research limitations/implications: Investors' increased response to changes in risk expose financial markets to higher likelihood of sudden and larger fluctuations during high-risk periods. Regulator imposed circuit breakers are designed to protect markets against such market crashes. However, circuit breakers are not designed to account for investor behavior changes. Our results show that circuit breakers should be different for high-risk versus low-risk periods.Practical implications: A circuit breaker that is designed to protect investors against large drops should be amended to have a lower threshold during high-risk periods.Originality/value: Our contribution is, to our knowledge, the first research effort to evaluate the effects of differences in investor behavior on investor reactions and regulator imposed fail safes. During the times of extreme market risk, our proposed changes may enable circuit breakers function their intended purposes.
Book Synopsis The Behavior of Asset Return Moments with Asymmetric Information, Price Taking and Risk Aversion by : Steve L. Slezak
Download or read book The Behavior of Asset Return Moments with Asymmetric Information, Price Taking and Risk Aversion written by Steve L. Slezak and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 154 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Risk and Return for Regulated Industries by : Bente Villadsen
Download or read book Risk and Return for Regulated Industries written by Bente Villadsen and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2017-04-27 with total page 362 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk and Return for Regulated Industries provides a much-needed, comprehensive review of how cost of capital risk arises and can be measured, how the special risks regulated industries face affect fair return, and the challenges that regulated industries are likely to face in the future. Rather than following the trend of broad industry introductions or textbook style reviews of utility finance, it covers the topics of most interest to regulators, regulated companies, regulatory lawyers, and rate-of-return analysts in all countries. Accordingly, the book also includes case studies about various countries and discussions of the lessons international regulatory procedures can offer. Presents a unified treatment of the regulatory principles and practices used to assess the required return on capital Addresses current practices before exploring the ways methods play out in practice, including irregularities, shortcomings, and concerns for the future Focuses on developed economies instead of providing a comprehensive global reviews Foreword by Stewart C. Myers
Book Synopsis Expectations of Equity Risk Premia, Volatility and Asymmetry from a Corporate Finance Perspective by : John R. Graham
Download or read book Expectations of Equity Risk Premia, Volatility and Asymmetry from a Corporate Finance Perspective written by John R. Graham and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present new evidence on the distribution of the ex ante risk premium based on a multi-year survey of Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) of U.S. corporations. Currently, we have responses from surveys conducted from the second quarter of 2000 through the third quarter of 2001. The results in this paper will be augmented as future surveys become available. We find direct evidence that the one-year risk premium is highly variable through time and 10-year expected risk premium is stable. In particular, after periods of negative returns, CFOs significantly reduce their one-year market forecasts, disagreement (volatility) increases and returns distributions are more skewed to the left. We also examine the relation between ex ante returns and ex ante volatility. The relation between the one-year expected risk premium and expected risk is negative. However, our research points to the importance of horizon. We find a significantly positive relation between expected return and expected risk at the 10-year horizon.
Book Synopsis Expectations of Equity Risk Premia, Volatility and Asymmetry from a Corporate Finance Perspective by : John R. Graham
Download or read book Expectations of Equity Risk Premia, Volatility and Asymmetry from a Corporate Finance Perspective written by John R. Graham and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present new evidence on the distribution of the ex ante risk premium based on a multi-year survey of Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) of U.S. corporations. Currently, we have responses from surveys conducted from the second quarter of 2000 through the third quarter of 2001. The results in this paper will be augmented as future surveys become available. We find direct evidence that the one-year risk premium is highly variable through time and 10-year expected risk premium is stable. In particular, after periods of negative returns, CFOs significantly reduce their one-year market forecasts, disagreement (volatility) increases and returns distributions are more skewed to the left. We also examine the relation between ex ante returns and ex ante volatility. The relation between the one-year expected risk premium and expected risk is negative. However, our research points to the importance of horizon. We find a significantly positive relation between expected return and expected risk at the 10-year horizon
Book Synopsis Asymmetric Returns by : Alexander M. Ineichen
Download or read book Asymmetric Returns written by Alexander M. Ineichen and published by Wiley. This book was released on 2006-12-13 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Asymmetric Returns, financial expert Alexander Ineichen elevates the critical discussion about alpha versus beta and absolute returns versus relative returns. He argues that controlling downside volatility is a key element in asset management if sustainable positive compounding of capital and financial survival are major objectives. Achieving sustainable positive absolute returns are the result of taking and managing risk wisely, that is, an active risk management process where risk is defined in absolute terms and changes in the market place are accounted for. The result of an active risk management process-when successful-is an asymmetric return profile, that is, more and higher returns on the upside and fewer and lower returns on the downside. Ineichen claims that achieving Asymmetric Returns is the future of active asset management. Alexander M. Ineichen, CFA, CAIA, is Managing Director and Senior Investment Officer for the Alternative Investment Solutions team, a key provider within Alternative and Quantitative Investments, itself a business within UBS Global Asset Management. He is also on the Board of Directors of the Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst Association (CAIAA). Ineichen is the author of the two UBS research publications In Search of Alpha—Investing in Hedge Funds (October 2000) and The Search for Alpha Continues—Do Fund of Hedge Funds Add Value? (September 2001). As of 2006 these two reports were the most often printed research papers in the documented history of UBS. He is also author of the widely popular Absolute Returns—The Risk and Opportunities of Hedge Fund Investing, also published by John Wiley & Sons.
Book Synopsis Econometrics of Risk by : Van-Nam Huynh
Download or read book Econometrics of Risk written by Van-Nam Huynh and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-12-15 with total page 486 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This edited book contains several state-of-the-art papers devoted to econometrics of risk. Some papers provide theoretical analysis of the corresponding mathematical, statistical, computational, and economical models. Other papers describe applications of the novel risk-related econometric techniques to real-life economic situations. The book presents new methods developed just recently, in particular, methods using non-Gaussian heavy-tailed distributions, methods using non-Gaussian copulas to properly take into account dependence between different quantities, methods taking into account imprecise ("fuzzy") expert knowledge, and many other innovative techniques. This versatile volume helps practitioners to learn how to apply new techniques of econometrics of risk, and researchers to further improve the existing models and to come up with new ideas on how to best take into account economic risks.
Book Synopsis Regulatory Risk: Economic Principles and Applications to Natural Gas Pipelines and Other Industries by : A. Lawrence Kolbe
Download or read book Regulatory Risk: Economic Principles and Applications to Natural Gas Pipelines and Other Industries written by A. Lawrence Kolbe and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 357 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is common to assert that utility investors are compensated in the allowed rate of return for the risk of large disallowances, such as arise for investments found imprudent or not `used and useful'. However, this book develops a new theory of asymmetric regulatory risk that shows that infallible estimates of the cost of capital are sure to provide downward-biased estimates of the necessary allowed rates of return in the presence of such regulatory risks. The book uses the new theory of regulatory risk to understand recent developments in the risk of natural gas pipelines and other regulated industries.
Book Synopsis Asymmetric Returns and Semidimensional Risks by : Cheekiat Low
Download or read book Asymmetric Returns and Semidimensional Risks written by Cheekiat Low and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most theoretical models in finance measure risk as variance or covariance. However, many financial decision-makers seem to regard risk as the volatility of below-target returns and treat the volatility of above-target returns as a sweetener. Using simple metrics of downside risk and upside potential, constructed from conditional covariances, I test for the empirical content of this asymmetry. I introduce a new composite metric of semidimensional risks which reveals that the nonlinearity in the covariation of stock returns with bearish and bullish conditions of the market is priced in the cross-section of stock returns. In particular, I find that stocks that have concave characteristic regression lines against the market earn higher average returns than stocks that have convex characteristic regression lines. This new metric captures the relevant information in returns asymmetry or nonlinearity better than either coskewness or the square-coefficient from quadratic regression. I also present results that are consistent with a semidimensional risk-based explanation for the twin puzzles of return momentum and reversal. The primitive representation of the security pricing kernel as the negative of covariance between marginal utility of consumption and security returns lends theoretical support for semidimensional risks and provides a unifying perspective for seemingly disparate literature on semivariances, skewness and behavioral finance.
Book Synopsis Asymmetric Volatility and Risk in Equity Markets by : Geert Bekaert
Download or read book Asymmetric Volatility and Risk in Equity Markets written by Geert Bekaert and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It appears that volatility in equity markets is asymmetric: returns and conditional volatility are negatively correlated. We provide a unified framework to simultaneously investigate asymmetric volatility at the firm and the market level and to examine two potential explanations of the asymmetry: leverage effects and time-varying risk premiums. Our empirical application uses the market portfolio and portfolios with different leverage constructed from Nikkei 225 stocks, extending the empirical evidence on asymmetry to Japanese stocks. Although volatility asymmetry is present and significant at the market and the portfolio levels, its source differs across portfolios. We find that it is important to include leverage ratios in the volatility dynamics but that their economic effects are mostly dwarfed by the volatility feedback mechanism. Volatility feedback is enhanced by a phenomenon that we term covariance asymmetry: conditional covariances with the market increase only significantly following negative market news. We do not find significant asymmetries in conditional betas.
Book Synopsis Geopolitical Risk on Stock Returns: Evidence from Inter-Korea Geopolitics by : Seungho Jung
Download or read book Geopolitical Risk on Stock Returns: Evidence from Inter-Korea Geopolitics written by Seungho Jung and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-22 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate how corporate stock returns respond to geopolitical risk in the case of South Korea, which has experienced large and unpredictable geopolitical swings that originate from North Korea. To do so, a monthly index of geopolitical risk from North Korea (the GPRNK index) is constructed using automated keyword searches in South Korean media. The GPRNK index, designed to capture both upside and downside risk, corroborates that geopolitical risk sharply increases with the occurrence of nuclear tests, missile launches, or military confrontations, and decreases significantly around the times of summit meetings or multilateral talks. Using firm-level data, we find that heightened geopolitical risk reduces stock returns, and that the reductions in stock returns are greater especially for large firms, firms with a higher share of domestic investors, and for firms with a higher ratio of fixed assets to total assets. These results suggest that international portfolio diversification and investment irreversibility are important channels through which geopolitical risk affects stock returns.
Book Synopsis Forecasting Expected Returns in the Financial Markets by : Stephen Satchell
Download or read book Forecasting Expected Returns in the Financial Markets written by Stephen Satchell and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2011-04-08 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting returns is as important as forecasting volatility in multiple areas of finance. This topic, essential to practitioners, is also studied by academics. In this new book, Dr Stephen Satchell brings together a collection of leading thinkers and practitioners from around the world who address this complex problem using the latest quantitative techniques. *Forecasting expected returns is an essential aspect of finance and highly technical *The first collection of papers to present new and developing techniques *International authors present both academic and practitioner perspectives
Book Synopsis Multi-dimensional Risk and Investment Return in the Energy Sector by : Peter Rabensteiner
Download or read book Multi-dimensional Risk and Investment Return in the Energy Sector written by Peter Rabensteiner and published by Haupt Verlag AG. This book was released on 2013 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Die vorliegende Dissertation untersucht die kapitalbezogenen Aspekte von Investitionen im regulierten Energiesektor, wobei der Fokus auf dem elektrischen Übertragungsnetz liegt. Eine grundlegende Prämisse ist hierbei die "Endogenität des Risikos," wonach das Risikoprofil einer regulierten Investition von den Spezifikationen des regulatorischen Marktdesigns abhängt, durch welches stochastische Kosten und Einnahmen unter den beteiligten Stakeholdern - den Investoren, Konsumenten und Steuerzahlern - aufgeteilt werden. Das übergreifende Konzept ist ein multidimensionales regulatorisches Risiko-Framework, welches eine systematische Beurteilung des Einflusses von stochastischen Risiken auf den Marktwert und Cashflow von regulierten Unternehmen ermöglicht. Gemäss den Dimensionen des Risiko-Frameworks werden die einzelnen Risiken nach ihren systematischen und symmetrischen Eigenschaften sowie nach deren finanziellen Auswirkungen auf das regulierte Unternehmen charakterisiert. Auf Grundlage der konzeptionellen Aufarbeitung und einer umfassenden bibliografischen Übersicht über die vorhandene wissenschaftliche Literatur werden neue Forschungsansätze entwickelt, welche sich mit den identifizierten analytischen und empirischen Forschungslücken befassen: Erstens erlaubt eine kapitalmarktbasierte Kennzahl für das implizierte systematische Risiko, welches auf Basis fundamentaler Bewertungsmodelle und Marktpreise errechnet werden kann, eine robuste Schätzung der Kapitalkosten von börsennotierten Übertragungsfirmen. Eine auf diesem Ansatz beruhende Anpassung der erlaubten Rendite könnte ein wertvolles selbstkorrigierendes Instrumentarium für Regulatoren darstellen. Zweitens ergibt die Analyse einer hypothetischen grenzüberschreitenden Übertragungsleitung zwischen Polen und Österreich, welche aufgrund stündlicher Spotpreise an den jeweiligen Strombörsen durchgeführt wurde, eine Schätzung des systematischen Risikos nahe Nul.
Book Synopsis Stock Returns and Inflation Redux: An Explanation from Monetary Policy in Advanced and Emerging Markets by : Mr. Zhongxia Zhang
Download or read book Stock Returns and Inflation Redux: An Explanation from Monetary Policy in Advanced and Emerging Markets written by Mr. Zhongxia Zhang and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-08-20 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Classical theories of monetary economics predict that real stock returns are negatively correlated with inflation when monetary policy is countercyclical. Previous empirical studies mostly focus on a small group of developed countries or a few countries with hyperinflation. In this paper, I examine the stock return-inflation relation under different monetary policy regimes and conditions using an expanded dataset of 71 economies. Empirical evidence suggests that the stock return-inflation relation is partially driven by monetary policy. If a country’s monetary authority conducts a more countercyclical monetary policy, the stock return-inflation relation becomes more negative. In addition, the results differ by monetary policy framework. In exchange rate anchor countries, stock markets do not respond to monetary policy cyclicality. In inflation targeting countries, stock markets react more strongly to inflation. A key contribution of this paper is to classify inflation targeters by their behaviors, and illustrate that behavior matters in shaping market perceptions: markets react to inflation and monetary policy cyclicality when central banks are able to control inflation within their target bands. In this case markets are sensitive to inflation dynamics when inflation is above the announced target bands. Finally, when monetary policy is constrained by the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB), a structural break is introduced and real stock returns no longer respond to inflation and monetary policy cyclicality.
Book Synopsis Country Risk Analysis by : Ronald L. Solberg
Download or read book Country Risk Analysis written by Ronald L. Solberg and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2002-09-11 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Country-Risk Analysis is a comprehensive, practical guide to the management of international risk and cross-border lending. The last fifteen years of international commercial bank lending have witnessed a classical boom-and-bust cycle. Yet it is only recently that a formalized approach to country risk assessment has been implemented in the major international banks. Ron Solberg's volume provides a state-of-the-art review of the country risk techniques that have evolved in the context of dramatic changes in developing countries' debt service capacity and in international lending itself. It deals comprehensively with sovereign credit decision making, portfolio management, lending behaviour and financial innovations.
Book Synopsis Risk Measurement by : Dominique Guégan
Download or read book Risk Measurement written by Dominique Guégan and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-03-22 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book combines theory and practice to analyze risk measurement from different points of view. The limitations of a model depend on the framework on which it has been built as well as specific assumptions, and risk managers need to be aware of these when assessing risks. The authors investigate the impact of these limitations, propose an alternative way of thinking that challenges traditional assumptions, and also provide novel solutions. Starting with the traditional Value at Risk (VaR) model and its limitations, the book discusses concepts like the expected shortfall, the spectral measure, the use of the spectrum, and the distortion risk measures from both a univariate and a multivariate perspective.
Book Synopsis Risk Sharing in an Asymmetric Environment by : Eric Fesselmeyer
Download or read book Risk Sharing in an Asymmetric Environment written by Eric Fesselmeyer and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the effect of an asymmetric environment on risk sharing. In our model, entrepreneurs consider undertaking risky projects in the real sector as well as selling part of their projects to investors. To capture the idea of an asymmetric environment, the returns on the alternative risk-free investment are allowed to differ between the entrepreneurs and the investors, i.e., agents have different opportunity costs of participating in the risky projects. We first show that the presence of asymmetric options establishes links between the risk-free and risky sectors as well as between the real and financial sectors. In particular, an asymmetric environment implies that the amount of risk sharing depends on the risk-free rates and the expected return of the risky project. Moreover, the level of real investment also depends on the risk-free rates. Second, we show how different risk-free rates may encourage or discourage risk sharing, and even prevent risk sharing altogether.
