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Asymmetric Impacts Of Oil Price Shocks On Government Expenditures
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Book Synopsis Asymmetric Impacts of Oil Price Shocks on Government Expenditures by : Hany Abdel-Latif
Download or read book Asymmetric Impacts of Oil Price Shocks on Government Expenditures written by Hany Abdel-Latif and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Saudi Arabia, a major oil exporting country, adopted an ambitious plan known as 2030 Vision to diversify its economy through dramatic increases in domestic investment. However, with oil remaining at modest to low prices by recent historical standards, it is important to study the implications of oil price negative shocks to key macroeconomic variables. This paper investigates the effect of oil price shocks on government expenditures. By allowing for the theoretical plausibility of asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on fiscal policy, our research suggests that nothing can guarantee linearity of the impacts of oil prices positive and negative shocks to government expenditures. For this purpose, we use a quarterly dataset 1990Q-2017Q2 on government expenditures on health and education sectors, and apply a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model. Our key findings show evidence of a non-linear relationship between oil prices and government expenditures in Saudi Arabia, where a negative oil price shock would have a statistically significant different impact in the long run compared to a positive shock. Finally, we build upon our empirical findings and draw some policy recommendations for the 2030 Vision.
Book Synopsis Oil Price Shocks and Economic Growth in Oil-Exporting Countries by : Amir Sadeghi
Download or read book Oil Price Shocks and Economic Growth in Oil-Exporting Countries written by Amir Sadeghi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-12-22 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the impact of government size on how output and government expenditure respond to oil price shocks in 28 oil-exporting countries between 1990 and 2016. Results suggest that if the size of government (measured by government expenditure-to-(non-oil) GDP ratio) is larger, non-oil output growth, in response to a positive oil price shock, tends to be greater and output volatility higher. Furthermore, I find that an unexpected increase in oil price leads to expansion in government expenditure and the expansion is larger, the larger is the government. This paper provides empirical evidence for direct correlation between government size and macroecnomic stability in oil-exporting countries. The findings imply that fiscal consolidation and economic diversification help to narrow down economic exposure to exogenous oil price shocks and reduce volatility in non-oil output.
Book Synopsis International Dimensions of Monetary Policy by : Jordi Galí
Download or read book International Dimensions of Monetary Policy written by Jordi Galí and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2010-03-15 with total page 663 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.
Book Synopsis On the Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks by : Deren Unalmis
Download or read book On the Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks written by Deren Unalmis and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-11-08 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Building on recent work on the role of speculation and inventories in oil markets, we embed a competitive oil storage model within a DSGE model of the U.S. economy. This enables us to formally analyze the impact of a (speculative) storage demand shock and to assess how the effects of various demand and supply shocks change in the presence of oil storage facility. We find that business-cycle driven oil demand shocks are the most important drivers of U.S. oil price fluctuations during 1982-2007. Disregarding the storage facility in the model causes a considerable upward bias in the estimated role of oil supply shocks in driving oil price fluctuations. Our results also confirm that a change in the composition of shocks helps explain the resilience of the macroeconomic environment to the oil price surge after 2003. Finally, speculative storage is shown to have a mitigating or amplifying role depending on the nature of the shock.
Book Synopsis On the Sources of Oil Price Fluctuations by : Deren Unalmis
Download or read book On the Sources of Oil Price Fluctuations written by Deren Unalmis and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-12-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Analyzing macroeconomic impacts of oil price changes requires first to investigate different sources of these changes and their distinct effects. Kilian (2009) analyzes the effects of an oil supply shock, an aggregate demand shock, and a precautionary oil demand shock. The paper's aim is to model macroeconomic consequences of these shocks within a new Keynesian DSGE framework. It models a small open economy and the rest of the world together to discover both accompanying effects of oil price changes and their international transmission mechanisms. Our results indicate that different sources of oil price fluctuations bring remarkably diverse outcomes for both economies.
Book Synopsis Essays on Fiscal Policy and Oil Price Shocks by : Yifei Lyu
Download or read book Essays on Fiscal Policy and Oil Price Shocks written by Yifei Lyu and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 97 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In my dissertation, I use cutting-edge time series econometric models to explore how the effects of government spending shocks change with the state of the economy, how to identify the effects of oil price changes induced by different reasons, and why oil price shocks seem to be much less important nowadays than decades ago. Chapter 1 builds a Markov-switching structural VAR to estimate state-dependent government spending multipliers in the U.S. We show that the multipliers are statistically larger during recessions than during expansions, although smaller than 1 in both periods. Our model has two features. First, we combine quantitative data and qualitative indicators to infer the regimes of the economy across which the multipliers differ. Second, we propose a recursive method to estimate impulse response functions that allows the economy to switch regimes after the shock. We argue that these two features are important for reconciling the main findings in previous studies. Chapter 2 estimates a standard structural VAR of the global oil market using both external and internal instrumental variables. I find that a negative oil supply shock leads to a delayed but significant decline in economic activity. Whereas oil consumption demand shocks do not have a significant effect on economic activity, a positive shock to oil inventory demand results in significant declines in oil production and economic activity at the same time. Furthermore, I show that oil price movements are mostly driven by shocks to oil consumption demand. Chapter 3 revisits the evidence in Blanchard and Gali (2010) that the effects of oil price shocks have diminished since the mid-1980s. I show that the apparent instability in the oil price-macroeconomy relationship they find can be accounted for by the endogeneity of oil price changes and the lower energy share in consumption in recent decades. When these two factors are taken into account, the effects of oil price shocks on real economic activity appear to be stable over time. Nevertheless, the impact of oil prices on inflation has noticeably weakened over time.
Book Synopsis Measuring Oil-Price Shocks Using Market-Based Information by : Tao Wu
Download or read book Measuring Oil-Price Shocks Using Market-Based Information written by Tao Wu and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010-10 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors study the effects of oil-price shocks on the U.S economy combining narrative and quantitative approaches. After examining daily oil-related events since 1984, they classify them into various event types. They then develop measures of exogenous shocks that avoid endogeneity and predictability concerns. Estimation results indicate that oil-price shocks have had substantial and statistically significant effects during the last 25 years. In contrast, traditional vector auto-regression (VAR) approaches imply much weaker and insignificant effects for the same period. This discrepancy stems from the inability of VARs to separate exogenous oil-supply shocks from endogenous oil-price fluctuations driven by changes in oil demand. Illustrations.
Book Synopsis Oil Price Shocks and Policy Uncertainty by : Wensheng Kang
Download or read book Oil Price Shocks and Policy Uncertainty written by Wensheng Kang and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Important interaction has been established for US economic policy uncertainty with a number of economic and financial variables including oil prices. This paper examines the dynamic effects of US and non-US oil production shocks on economic policy uncertainty using a structural VAR model. Such an examination is motivated by the substantial increases in US oil production in recent years with implications for US political and economic security. Positive innovations in US oil production are associated with decreases in US economic policy uncertainty. The economic forecast interquartile ranges about the US CPI and about federal/state/local government expenditures are particularly sensitive to innovations in US oil supply shocks. Shocks to US oil supply disruption causes rises in the CPI forecast uncertainty and accounts for 21% of the overall variation of the CPI forecaster disagreement. Dis-aggregation of oil production shocks into US and non-US oil production yield novel results. Oil supply shocks identified by US and non-US origins explain as much of the variatio in economic policy uncertainty as structural shocks on the demand side of the oil market.
Book Synopsis Estimating income elasticity of government expenditures : evidence from oil price shocks by : Markus Brückner
Download or read book Estimating income elasticity of government expenditures : evidence from oil price shocks written by Markus Brückner and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Economic Growth of Oil-Exporting Countries by : Saeed Moshiri
Download or read book Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Economic Growth of Oil-Exporting Countries written by Saeed Moshiri and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Oil price shocks affect macroeconomic performance in both oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. The recent research on the oil-macroeconomy relationship in the oil-importing countries shows that oil price shocks have asymmetric effects on their economic growth; the adverse effects of higher oil prices are larger than the stimulating effects of lower prices. The effects of oil price shocks on economic performance and their transmission mechanism in oil-exporting countries are different than those in oil-importing countries. In this study, we examine the oil-macroeconomy nexus in the context of oil-exporting developing countries. We set up a VAR model with a GARCH-type oil price shocks to estimate and test the asymmetric effects of oil shocks in six major oil exporting members of OPEC for the period 1970-2009. The model includes oil price shocks and economic growth as two major variables of interest as well as the intermediate variables such as investment, exchange rate, and inflation rate. We find that in oil exporting developing countries, lower oil prices would lead to major revenue cuts and stagnation in the economy. However, higher oil prices and accompanying higher revenues do not translate to a sustained economic growth.
Book Synopsis Oil Price Uncertainty by : Apostolos Serletis
Download or read book Oil Price Uncertainty written by Apostolos Serletis and published by World Scientific Publishing Company Incorporated. This book was released on 2012 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The relationship between the price of oil and the level of economic activity is a fundamental issue in macroeconomics. There is an ongoing debate in the literature about whether positive oil price shocks cause recessions in the United States (and other oil-importing countries), and although there exists a vast empirical literature that investigates the effects of oil price shocks, there are relatively few studies that investigate the direct effects of uncertainty about oil prices on the real economy. The book uses recent advances in macroeconomics and financial economics to investigate the effects of oil price shocks and uncertainty about the price of oil on the level of economic activity.
Book Synopsis Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Current Account Imbalances Within a Currency Union by : Timo Baas
Download or read book Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Current Account Imbalances Within a Currency Union written by Timo Baas and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For more than two decades now, current-account imbalances are a crucial issue in the international policy debate as they threaten the stability of the world economy. More recently, the government debt crisis of the European Union shows that internal current account imbalances inside a currency union may also add to these risks. Oil price fluctuations and a contracting monetary policy that reacts on oil prices, previously discussed to affect the current account may also be a threat to the currency union by changing internal imbalances. Therefore, in this paper, we analyze the impact of oil price shocks on current account imbalances within a currency union. Differences in institutions, especially labor market institutions and trade result in an asymmetric reaction to an otherwise symmetric shock. In this context, we show that oil price shocks can have a long-lasting impact on internal balances, as the exchange rate adjustment mechanism is not available. The common monetary policy authority, however, can reduce such effects by specifying an optimum monetary policy target. Nevertheless, we also show that there is no single best solution. CPI, core CPI or an asymmetric CPI target all come at a cost either regarding an increase in unemployment or increasing imbalances.
Book Synopsis Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Current Account Imbalances Within a Currency Union by : Timo Baas
Download or read book Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Current Account Imbalances Within a Currency Union written by Timo Baas and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Impact of World Oil Price Shocks on the Canada/U.S. Real Exchange Rate by : Jing Zhao
Download or read book The Impact of World Oil Price Shocks on the Canada/U.S. Real Exchange Rate written by Jing Zhao and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This article investigates whether and how changes in the world oil price affect the Canada/U.S. real exchange rate. We applied vector autoregression and vector error correction models for the real exchange rate, world oil price, monetary differential, government spending, and productivity differential between the two countries. Our results demonstrate that a surge in the world oil price will lead to an appreciation of the Canadian dollar in the short and long term. Product differentials and U.S. government spending have a negative impact on the Canada/U.S. real exchange rate, and Canadian government spending leads to a depreciation of the Canadian dollar.
Book Synopsis Oil Price Shocks and Economic Growth in Oil-Exporting Countries by : Amir S. Sadeghi Emamgholi
Download or read book Oil Price Shocks and Economic Growth in Oil-Exporting Countries written by Amir S. Sadeghi Emamgholi and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the impact of government size on how output and government expenditurerespond to oil price shocks in 28 oil-exporting countries between 1990 and 2016. Results suggestthat if the size of government (measured by government expenditure-to-(non-oil) GDP ratio) islarger, non-oil output growth, in response to a positive oil price shock, tends to be greater andoutput volatility higher. Furthermore, I find that an unexpected increase in oil price leads toexpansion in government expenditure and the expansion is larger, the larger is the government.This paper provides empirical evidence for direct correlation between government size andmacroecnomic stability in oil-exporting countries. The findings imply that fiscal consolidationand economic diversification help to narrow down economic exposure to exogenous oil priceshocks and reduce volatility in non-oil output.
Book Synopsis Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt by : Robin C. Sickles
Download or read book Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt written by Robin C. Sickles and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2014-03-15 with total page 417 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the Introduction: This volume is dedicated to the remarkable career of Professor Peter Schmidt and the role he has played in mentoring us, his PhD students. Peter’s accomplishments are legendary among his students and the profession. Each of the papers in this Festschrift is a research work executed by a former PhD student of Peter’s, from his days at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill to his time at Michigan State University. Most of the papers were presented at The Conference in Honor of Peter Schmidt, June 30 - July 2, 2011. The conference was largely attended by his former students and one current student, who traveled from as far as Europe and Asia to honor Peter. This was a conference to celebrate Peter’s contribution to our contributions. By “our contributions” we mean the research papers that make up this Festschrift and the countless other publications by his students represented and not represented in this volume. Peter’s students may have their families to thank for much that is positive in their lives. However, if we think about it, our professional lives would not be the same without the lessons and the approaches to decision making that we learned from Peter. We spent our days together at Peter’s conference and the months since reminded of these aspects of our personalities and life goals that were enhanced, fostered, and nurtured by the very singular experiences we have had as Peter’s students. We recognized in 2011 that it was unlikely we would all be together again to celebrate such a wonderful moment in ours and Peter’s lives and pledged then to take full advantage of it. We did then, and we are now in the form of this volume.
Book Synopsis Oil Price Shocks, Market Response, and Contingency Planning by : George Horwich
Download or read book Oil Price Shocks, Market Response, and Contingency Planning written by George Horwich and published by American Enterprise Institute. This book was released on 1984 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
