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Assessing Debt Sustainability In Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods
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Book Synopsis Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods by : Doug Hostland
Download or read book Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods written by Doug Hostland and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2006 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper applies stochastic simulation methods to assess debt sustainability in emerging market economies and provide probability measures for projections of the external and public debt burden over the medium term. The vulnerability of public debt to adverse shocks is determined by a number of interrelated factors, including the volatility of output, financial fragility, the endogenous response of the risk premium, and sudden stops in private capital flows. The vulnerability of external debt is sensitive to the determination of the exchange rate and to the pricing of traded goods. We show that fiscal policy can act in a preemptive manner to prevent the debt burden from rising significantly over the medium term. This requires flexibility in fiscal planning, which many emerging market economies lack. Emerging market economies therefore face a difficult trade-off between managing the risk of a debt crisis and pursuing other important fiscal policy objectives.
Book Synopsis Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods by : Mr.Philippe D Karam
Download or read book Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods written by Mr.Philippe D Karam and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2005-12-01 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper applies stochastic simulation methods to assess debt sustainability in emerging market economies and provide probability measures for projections of the external and public debt burden over the medium term. The vulnerability of public debt to adverse shocks is determined by a number of interrelated factors, including the volatility of output, financial fragility, the endogenous response of the risk premium, and sudden stops in private capital flows. The vulnerability of external debt is sensitive to the determination of the exchange rate and to the pricing of traded goods. We show that fiscal policy can act in a preemptive manner to prevent the debt burden from rising significantly over the medium term. This requires flexibility in fiscal planning, which many emerging market economies lack. Emerging market economies therefore face a difficult trade-off between managing the risk of a debt crisis and pursuing other important fiscal policy objectives.
Book Synopsis Specification of a Stochastic Simulation Model for Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies by : Philippe D Karam
Download or read book Specification of a Stochastic Simulation Model for Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies written by Philippe D Karam and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-12 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper documents the specification of a model that was constructed to assess debt sustainability in emerging market economies. Key features of the model include external and fiscal sectors, which allow assessment of external and public debt in a unified framework; public and external debt, which both have an explicit maturity structure along with a distinction between denomination in domestic versus foreign currency to facilitate debt management analysis; monetary and fiscal policy, which are endogenous and specified using explicit forward-looking policy rules; an endogenous risk premium on public and external debt; and a mechanism for invoking a sudden stop in private capital flows. The paper provides an overview of the basic structure of the model, outlines the methodology used to calibrate the parameters, and illustrates the key properties of the model with reference to dynamic responses of selected variables to shocks of interest.
Book Synopsis Specification of a Stochastic Simulation Model for Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies by : B. Mercereau
Download or read book Specification of a Stochastic Simulation Model for Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies written by B. Mercereau and published by . This book was released on with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :Mr. Santiago Acosta Ormaechea Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :151357728X Total Pages :32 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (135 download)
Book Synopsis A Guide and Tool for Projecting Public Debt and Fiscal Adjustment Paths with Local- and Foreign-Currency Debt by : Mr. Santiago Acosta Ormaechea
Download or read book A Guide and Tool for Projecting Public Debt and Fiscal Adjustment Paths with Local- and Foreign-Currency Debt written by Mr. Santiago Acosta Ormaechea and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-05-28 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This guide presents the analytical underpinnings and a user manual for the Excel-based Public Debt Dynamics Tool (DDT).
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1589067223 Total Pages :220 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (89 download)
Book Synopsis IMF Staff Papers, Volume 55, No. 1 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book IMF Staff Papers, Volume 55, No. 1 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-06-18 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this issue, a team of economists look at approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or permanent phenomenon. Era Dabla-Norris and Gabriela Inchauste examine what drives the growth of firms, with a focus on informality and regulations. Evan Tanner and Issouf Samake use a vector autoregression approach to examine the probabilistic sustainability of public debt in Brazil. Mexico, and Turkey. And Rachel Glennerster and Yongseok Shin ask whether transparency pays?that is, does the frequency and accuracy of macroeconomic information released to the public lead to lower borrowing costs in sovereign debt markets?
Book Synopsis Fiscal Risks - Sources, Disclosure, and Management by : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Download or read book Fiscal Risks - Sources, Disclosure, and Management written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-05-31 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A number of member countries have expressed interest in advice regarding disclosure and management of fiscal risks (defined as the possibility of deviations of fiscal outcomes from what was expected at the time of the budget or other forecast). This paper analyzes the main sources of fiscal risks and—building on an overview of existing practices in a wide range of countries—provides practical suggestions in this area, including a possible Statement of Fiscal Risks and a set of Guidelines for Fiscal Risk Disclosure and Management.
Book Synopsis Global Waves of Debt by : M. Ayhan Kose
Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Book Synopsis Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia by : Benno Ferrarini
Download or read book Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia written by Benno Ferrarini and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Addressing the global financial crisis has required fiscal intervention on a substantial scale by governments around the world. The consequent buildup of public debt, in particular its sustainability, has moved to center stage in the policy debate. If the Asia and Pacific region is to continue to serve as an engine for global growth, its public debt must be sustainable. Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia addresses this issue for Asia and the Pacific as a whole as well as for three of the most dynamic economies in the region: the People’s Republic of China, India, and Viet Nam. The book begins with a discussion of the reasons for increased attention to debt-related issues. It also introduces fiscal indicators for the Asian Development. Bank’s developing member countries and economies. The sustainability of their debt is assessed through extant approaches and with the most up-to-date data sources. The book also surveys the existing literature on debt sustainability, outlining the main issues related to it, and discusses the key implications for the application of debt sustainability analysis in developing Asia. Also highlighted is the importance of conducting individual country studies in view of wide variations in definitions of public expenditure, revenues, contingent liabilities, government structures (e.g., federal), and the like, as well as the impact of debt on interest rates. The book further provides in-depth debt sustainability analyses for the People’s Republic of China, India, and Viet Nam. Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia offers a comprehensive analytical and empirical update on the sustainability of public debt in the region. It breaks new ground in examining characteristics that are crucial to understanding sustainability and offers richer policy analysis that should prove useful for policymakers, researchers, and graduate students.
Book Synopsis Assessing Country Risk by : Mr.Ashvin Ahuja
Download or read book Assessing Country Risk written by Mr.Ashvin Ahuja and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-06-01 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Assessing country risk is a core component of surveillance at the IMF. It is conducted through a comprehensive architecture, covering both bilateral and multilateral dimensions. This note describes some of the approaches used internally by Fund staff to examine a wide array of systemic risks across advanced, emerging, and low-income economies. It provides a high-level view of the theory and methodologies employed, with an on-line companion guide providing more technical details of implementation. The guide will be updated as Fund staff’s methodologies for assessing country risk continue to evolve with experience and feedback. While the results of these approaches are not published by the IMF for market sensitivity reasons, they inform risk assessments featured in bilateral surveillance as well as in the IMF’s flagship publications on global surveillance.
Book Synopsis Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010 by : Mr.Udaibir S. Das
Download or read book Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010 written by Mr.Udaibir S. Das and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a comprehensive survey of pertinent issues on sovereign debt restructurings, based on a newly constructed database. This is the first complete dataset of sovereign restructuring cases, covering the six decades from 1950–2010; it includes 186 debt exchanges with foreign banks and bondholders, and 447 bilateral debt agreements with the Paris Club. We present new stylized facts on the outcome and process of debt restructurings, including on the size of haircuts, creditor participation, and legal aspects. In addition, the paper summarizes the relevant empirical literature, analyzes recent restructuring episodes, and discusses ongoing debates on crisis resolution mechanisms, credit default swaps, and the role of collective action clauses.
Book Synopsis Guidelines for Public Debt Management -- Amended by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Guidelines for Public Debt Management -- Amended written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-09-12 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NULL
Author :International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498331416 Total Pages :12 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis Information Note on Modifications to the Fund's Debt Sustainability Assessment Framework for Market Access Countries by : International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept.
Download or read book Information Note on Modifications to the Fund's Debt Sustainability Assessment Framework for Market Access Countries written by International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2005-01-07 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NULL
Download or read book IMF Research Bulletin written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Sovereign Debt written by S. Ali Abbas and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2019-10-21 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The last time global sovereign debt reached the level seen today was at the end of the Second World War, and this shaped a generation of economic policymaking. International institutions were transformed, country policies were often draconian and distortive, and many crises ensued. By the early 1970s, when debt fell back to pre-war levels, the world was radically different. It is likely that changes of a similar magnitude -for better and for worse - will play out over coming decades. Sovereign Debt: A Guide for Economists and Practitioners is an attempt to build some structure around the issues of sovereign debt to help guide economists, practitioners and policymakers through this complicated, but not intractable, subject. Sovereign Debt brings together some of the world's leading researchers and specialists in sovereign debt to cover a range of sub-disciplines within this vast topic. It explores debt management with debt sustainability; debt reduction policies with crisis prevention policies; and the history with the conjuncture. It is a foundation text for all those interested in sovereign debt, with a particular focus real world examples and issues.
Download or read book Artha Suchi written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 392 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt by : Issouf Samaké
Download or read book Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt written by Issouf Samaké and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-12-01 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the sustainability of fiscal policy under uncertainty in three emerging market countries, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. For each country, we estimate a vector autoregression (VAR) that includes fiscal and macroeconomic variables. Retrospectively, a historical decomposition shows by how much debt accumulation reflects unsustainable policy, adverse shocks, or both. Prospectively, Monte Carlo techniques reveal the primary surplus that is required to keep the debt/GDP ratio from rising in all but the worst 50 percent, 25 percent, and 10 percent of circumstances. Such a value-at-risk approach presents a clearer menu of policy options than currently used frameworks.
