Are Analysts Right Macroeconomic Factors And Regime Switching In The Term Structure Of Interest Rates

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Are Analysts Right? Macroeconomic Factors and Regime Switching in the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Author : Nina Boyarchenko
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 43 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis Are Analysts Right? Macroeconomic Factors and Regime Switching in the Term Structure of Interest Rates by : Nina Boyarchenko

Download or read book Are Analysts Right? Macroeconomic Factors and Regime Switching in the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Nina Boyarchenko and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The validity of analysts' beliefs that the dependence of bond prices on crude oil prices changes sign over time and that the overall economy performance is correlated with the slope of the yield curve is examined. These beliefs are mapped into the term structure of interest rates framework by allowing for regime switching in the term structure and by using crude oil prices and an overall economy performance index (CFNAI) as factors. Fitting is done using Gibbs sampling, which allows for fewer assumptions on the regime switching parameters than classical methods and, thus, provides a more flexible model. The predicted yields are calculated using the eigenfunction expansion method.

Macroeconometrics and Time Series Analysis

Author : Steven Durlauf
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 0230280838
Total Pages : 417 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (32 download)

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Book Synopsis Macroeconometrics and Time Series Analysis by : Steven Durlauf

Download or read book Macroeconometrics and Time Series Analysis written by Steven Durlauf and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-30 with total page 417 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Specially selected from The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics 2nd edition, each article within this compendium covers the fundamental themes within the discipline and is written by a leading practitioner in the field. A handy reference tool.

An Introduction to Stochastic Processes and Their Applications

Author : Chin Long Chiang
Publisher : Krieger Publishing Company
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 552 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis An Introduction to Stochastic Processes and Their Applications by : Chin Long Chiang

Download or read book An Introduction to Stochastic Processes and Their Applications written by Chin Long Chiang and published by Krieger Publishing Company. This book was released on 1980 with total page 552 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Random variables. Probability generating functions. Exponential-type distributions and maximum likelihood estimation. Branching process, random walk and ruin problem. Markov chains. Algebraic treatment of finite Markov chains. Renewal processes. Some stochastic models of population growth. A general birth process, an equality and an epidemic model. Birth-death processes and queueing processes. A simple illness-death process - fix-neyman processes. Multiple transition probabilities in the simple illness death process. Multiple transition time in the simple illness death process - an alternating renewal process. The kolmogorov differential equations and finite markov processes. Kolmogorov differential equations and finite markov processes - continuation. A general illness-death process. Migration processes and birth-illness-death processes.

Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

Author : Carl Chiarella
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135984506
Total Pages : 513 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (359 download)

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Book Synopsis Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy by : Carl Chiarella

Download or read book Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy written by Carl Chiarella and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-06-02 with total page 513 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This important new book from a group of Keynesian, but nonetheless technically-oriented economists explores one of the dominant paradigms in financial economics: the ‘intertemporal general equilibrium approach’.

International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards

Author :
Publisher : Lulu.com
ISBN 13 : 9291316695
Total Pages : 294 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (913 download)

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Book Synopsis International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards by :

Download or read book International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards written by and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2004 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Mathematics of Financial Modeling and Investment Management

Author : Sergio M. Focardi
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 9780471465997
Total Pages : 804 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (659 download)

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Book Synopsis The Mathematics of Financial Modeling and Investment Management by : Sergio M. Focardi

Download or read book The Mathematics of Financial Modeling and Investment Management written by Sergio M. Focardi and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2004-03-29 with total page 804 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: the mathematics of financial modeling & investment management The Mathematics of Financial Modeling & Investment Management covers a wide range of technical topics in mathematics and finance-enabling the investment management practitioner, researcher, or student to fully understand the process of financial decision-making and its economic foundations. This comprehensive resource will introduce you to key mathematical techniques-matrix algebra, calculus, ordinary differential equations, probability theory, stochastic calculus, time series analysis, optimization-as well as show you how these techniques are successfully implemented in the world of modern finance. Special emphasis is placed on the new mathematical tools that allow a deeper understanding of financial econometrics and financial economics. Recent advances in financial econometrics, such as tools for estimating and representing the tails of the distributions, the analysis of correlation phenomena, and dimensionality reduction through factor analysis and cointegration are discussed in depth. Using a wealth of real-world examples, Focardi and Fabozzi simultaneously show both the mathematical techniques and the areas in finance where these techniques are applied. They also cover a variety of useful financial applications, such as: * Arbitrage pricing * Interest rate modeling * Derivative pricing * Credit risk modeling * Equity and bond portfolio management * Risk management * And much more Filled with in-depth insight and expert advice, The Mathematics of Financial Modeling & Investment Management clearly ties together financial theory and mathematical techniques.

Handbook of Quantitative Finance and Risk Management

Author : Cheng-Few Lee
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 0387771174
Total Pages : 1700 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (877 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Quantitative Finance and Risk Management by : Cheng-Few Lee

Download or read book Handbook of Quantitative Finance and Risk Management written by Cheng-Few Lee and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-06-14 with total page 1700 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Quantitative finance is a combination of economics, accounting, statistics, econometrics, mathematics, stochastic process, and computer science and technology. Increasingly, the tools of financial analysis are being applied to assess, monitor, and mitigate risk, especially in the context of globalization, market volatility, and economic crisis. This two-volume handbook, comprised of over 100 chapters, is the most comprehensive resource in the field to date, integrating the most current theory, methodology, policy, and practical applications. Showcasing contributions from an international array of experts, the Handbook of Quantitative Finance and Risk Management is unparalleled in the breadth and depth of its coverage. Volume 1 presents an overview of quantitative finance and risk management research, covering the essential theories, policies, and empirical methodologies used in the field. Chapters provide in-depth discussion of portfolio theory and investment analysis. Volume 2 covers options and option pricing theory and risk management. Volume 3 presents a wide variety of models and analytical tools. Throughout, the handbook offers illustrative case examples, worked equations, and extensive references; additional features include chapter abstracts, keywords, and author and subject indices. From "arbitrage" to "yield spreads," the Handbook of Quantitative Finance and Risk Management will serve as an essential resource for academics, educators, students, policymakers, and practitioners.

New Developments in Statistical Modeling, Inference and Application

Author : Zhezhen Jin
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319425714
Total Pages : 218 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (194 download)

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Book Synopsis New Developments in Statistical Modeling, Inference and Application by : Zhezhen Jin

Download or read book New Developments in Statistical Modeling, Inference and Application written by Zhezhen Jin and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-10-28 with total page 218 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The papers in this volume represent the most timely and advanced contributions to the 2014 Joint Applied Statistics Symposium of the International Chinese Statistical Association (ICSA) and the Korean International Statistical Society (KISS), held in Portland, Oregon. The contributions cover new developments in statistical modeling and clinical research: including model development, model checking, and innovative clinical trial design and analysis. Each paper was peer-reviewed by at least two referees and also by an editor. The conference was attended by over 400 participants from academia, industry, and government agencies around the world, including from North America, Asia, and Europe. It offered 3 keynote speeches, 7 short courses, 76 parallel scientific sessions, student paper sessions, and social events.

Negative Interest Rates

Author : Luís Brandão Marques
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513570080
Total Pages : 84 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Negative Interest Rates by : Luís Brandão Marques

Download or read book Negative Interest Rates written by Luís Brandão Marques and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper focuses on negative interest rate policies and covers a broad range of its effects, with a detailed discussion of findings in the academic literature and of broader country experiences.

Bayesian Filtering and Smoothing

Author : Simo Särkkä
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 110703065X
Total Pages : 255 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Filtering and Smoothing by : Simo Särkkä

Download or read book Bayesian Filtering and Smoothing written by Simo Särkkä and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-09-05 with total page 255 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A unified Bayesian treatment of the state-of-the-art filtering, smoothing, and parameter estimation algorithms for non-linear state space models.

How Does Political Instability Affect Economic Growth?

Author : Mr.Ari Aisen
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1455211907
Total Pages : 30 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (552 download)

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Book Synopsis How Does Political Instability Affect Economic Growth? by : Mr.Ari Aisen

Download or read book How Does Political Instability Affect Economic Growth? written by Mr.Ari Aisen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-01-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this paper is to empirically determine the effects of political instability on economic growth. Using the system-GMM estimator for linear dynamic panel data models on a sample covering up to 169 countries, and 5-year periods from 1960 to 2004, we find that higher degrees of political instability are associated with lower growth rates of GDP per capita. Regarding the channels of transmission, we find that political instability adversely affects growth by lowering the rates of productivity growth and, to a smaller degree, physical and human capital accumulation. Finally, economic freedom and ethnic homogeneity are beneficial to growth, while democracy may have a small negative effect.

Dynamic Factor Models

Author :
Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1785603523
Total Pages : 688 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (856 download)

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Book Synopsis Dynamic Factor Models by :

Download or read book Dynamic Factor Models written by and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2016-01-08 with total page 688 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume explores dynamic factor model specification, asymptotic and finite-sample behavior of parameter estimators, identification, frequentist and Bayesian estimation of the corresponding state space models, and applications.

Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics

Author : Robert A. Meyers
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1441977007
Total Pages : 919 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (419 download)

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Book Synopsis Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics by : Robert A. Meyers

Download or read book Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics written by Robert A. Meyers and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-11-03 with total page 919 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Finance, Econometrics and System Dynamics presents an overview of the concepts and tools for analyzing complex systems in a wide range of fields. The text integrates complexity with deterministic equations and concepts from real world examples, and appeals to a broad audience.

Handbook of Economic Forecasting

Author : Graham Elliott
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0444627405
Total Pages : 667 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (446 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Economic Forecasting by : Graham Elliott

Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-08-23 with total page 667 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics

Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics

Author : William M. Bolstad
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118209923
Total Pages : 255 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (182 download)

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Book Synopsis Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics by : William M. Bolstad

Download or read book Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics written by William M. Bolstad and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-09-20 with total page 255 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A hands-on introduction to computational statistics from a Bayesian point of view Providing a solid grounding in statistics while uniquely covering the topics from a Bayesian perspective, Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics successfully guides readers through this new, cutting-edge approach. With its hands-on treatment of the topic, the book shows how samples can be drawn from the posterior distribution when the formula giving its shape is all that is known, and how Bayesian inferences can be based on these samples from the posterior. These ideas are illustrated on common statistical models, including the multiple linear regression model, the hierarchical mean model, the logistic regression model, and the proportional hazards model. The book begins with an outline of the similarities and differences between Bayesian and the likelihood approaches to statistics. Subsequent chapters present key techniques for using computer software to draw Monte Carlo samples from the incompletely known posterior distribution and performing the Bayesian inference calculated from these samples. Topics of coverage include: Direct ways to draw a random sample from the posterior by reshaping a random sample drawn from an easily sampled starting distribution The distributions from the one-dimensional exponential family Markov chains and their long-run behavior The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm Gibbs sampling algorithm and methods for speeding up convergence Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling Using numerous graphs and diagrams, the author emphasizes a step-by-step approach to computational Bayesian statistics. At each step, important aspects of application are detailed, such as how to choose a prior for logistic regression model, the Poisson regression model, and the proportional hazards model. A related Web site houses R functions and Minitab macros for Bayesian analysis and Monte Carlo simulations, and detailed appendices in the book guide readers through the use of these software packages. Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics is an excellent book for courses on computational statistics at the upper-level undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also a valuable reference for researchers and practitioners who use computer programs to conduct statistical analyses of data and solve problems in their everyday work.

Global Trends 2040

Author : National Intelligence Council
Publisher : Cosimo Reports
ISBN 13 : 9781646794973
Total Pages : 158 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (949 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Trends 2040 by : National Intelligence Council

Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Stress Testing at the IMF

Author : Mr.Tobias Adrian
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513520741
Total Pages : 73 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Stress Testing at the IMF by : Mr.Tobias Adrian

Download or read book Stress Testing at the IMF written by Mr.Tobias Adrian and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-05 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explains specifics of stress testing at the IMF. After a brief section on the evolution of stress tests at the IMF, the paper presents the key steps of an IMF staff stress test. They are followed by a discussion on how IMF staff uses stress tests results for policy advice. The paper concludes by identifying remaining challenges to make stress tests more useful for the monitoring of financial stability and an overview of IMF staff work program in that direction. Stress tests help assess the resilience of financial systems in IMF member countries and underpin policy advice to preserve or restore financial stability. This assessment and advice are mainly provided through the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). IMF staff also provide technical assistance in stress testing to many its member countries. An IMF macroprudential stress test is a methodology to assess financial vulnerabilities that can trigger systemic risk and the need of systemwide mitigating measures. The definition of systemic risk as used by the IMF is relevant to understanding the role of its stress tests as tools for financial surveillance and the IMF’s current work program. IMF stress tests primarily apply to depository intermediaries, and, systemically important banks.