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Anticipating Balance Of Payments Crises The Role Of Early Warning Systems
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Book Synopsis Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems by : Mr.Eduardo Borensztein
Download or read book Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems written by Mr.Eduardo Borensztein and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2000-01-24 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent years have witnessed an increase in the frequency of currency and balance of payments crises in developing countries. More important, the crises have become more virulent, have caused widespread disruption to other developing countries, and have even had repercussions on advanced economies. To predict crises, their causes must be clearly understood. Two competing strands of theories are reviewed in this paper. The first focuses on the consequences of such policies as excessive credit growth in provoking depletion of foreign exchange reserves and making a devaluation enevitable. The second emphasizes the trade-offs between internal and external balance that the policymaker faces in defending a peg.
Book Synopsis Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises by : Paolo Manasse
Download or read book Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises written by Paolo Manasse and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-11-01 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop an early-warning model of sovereign debt crises. A country is defined to be in a debt crisis if it is classified as being in default by Standard & Poor's, or if it has access to nonconcessional IMF financing in excess of 100 percent of quota. By means of logit and binary recursive tree analysis, we identify macroeconomic variables reflecting solvency and liquidity factors that predict a debt-crisis episode one year in advance. The logit model predicts 74 percent of all crises entries while sending few false alarms, and the recursive tree 89 percent while sending more false alarms.
Book Synopsis Assessing Financial Vulnerability by : Morris Goldstein
Download or read book Assessing Financial Vulnerability written by Morris Goldstein and published by Peterson Institute. This book was released on 2000 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study reviews the literature on the origins of currency and banking crises. It presents empirical tests on the performance of alternative early-warning indicators for emerging-market economies. The book also identifies crisis-threshold values for early-warning indicators.
Book Synopsis A Decade after the Global Recession by : M. Ayhan Kose
Download or read book A Decade after the Global Recession written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-19 with total page 475 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This year marks the tenth anniversary of the 2009 global recession. Most emerging market and developing economies weathered the global recession relatively well, in part by using the sizable fiscal and monetary policy ammunition accumulated during prior years of strong growth. However, their growth prospects have weakened since then, and many now have less policy space. This study provides the first comprehensive stocktaking of the past decade from the perspective of emerging market and developing economies. Many of these economies have now become more vulnerable to economic shocks. The study discusses lessons from the global recession and policy options for these economies to strengthen growth and prepare for the possibility of another global downturn.
Book Synopsis Globalization and the International Financial System by : Peter Isard
Download or read book Globalization and the International Financial System written by Peter Isard and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2005 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic globalization has given rise to frequent and severe financial crises in emerging market economies. Other countries are also unsuccessful in their efforts to generate economic growth and reduce poverty. This book provides perspectives on various aspects of the international financial system that contribute to financial crises and growth failures, and discusses the remedies that economists have proposed for addressing the underlying problems. It also sheds light on a central feature of the international financial system that remains mysterious to many economists and most non-economists: the activities of the International Monetary Fund and the factors that influence its effectiveness. Dr Isard offers policy perspectives on what countries can do to reduce their vulnerabilities to financial crises and growth failures, and a number of general directions for systemic reform. The breadth of the agenda provides grounds for optimism that the international financial system can be strengthened considerably without revolutionary change.
Book Synopsis Sovereign Default Risk Valuation by : Jochen Andritzky
Download or read book Sovereign Default Risk Valuation written by Jochen Andritzky and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-11-23 with total page 261 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Past cycles of sovereign lending and default suggest that debt crises will recur at some point. This book shows why investors should reckon with similar credit events in the future. Surveying the sovereign bond market, the author provides investors with a useful toolkit for analyzing sovereign bonds and foreseeing trends in the international financial architecture. The result should be a better understanding of debt crises and more deliberate investment decisions.
Book Synopsis Sovereign Risk and Financial Crisis by : Silvia Pepino
Download or read book Sovereign Risk and Financial Crisis written by Silvia Pepino and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-08-11 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides an original and timely insight into the role that the domestic and international political economy played in the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis, combining an innovative theoretical framework with in-depth bond market analysis.
Book Synopsis Financial Policies in Emerging Markets by : Mario I. Bléjer
Download or read book Financial Policies in Emerging Markets written by Mario I. Bléjer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2002 with total page 282 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An overview of the financial vulnerability of emerging market economies and how the impact of exchange rate regimes affects this vulnerability.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Monetary Economics vols 3A+3B Set by : Benjamin M. Friedman
Download or read book Handbook of Monetary Economics vols 3A+3B Set written by Benjamin M. Friedman and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2010-11-10 with total page 1729 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How have monetary policies matured during the last decade? The recent downturn in economies worldwide have put monetary policies in a new spotlight. In addition to their investigations of new tools, models, and assumptions, they look carefully at recent evidence on subjects as varied as price-setting, inflation persistence, the private sector's formation of inflation expectations, and the monetary policy transmission mechanism. They also reexamine standard presumptions about the rationality of asset markets and other fundamentals. Stopping short of advocating conclusions about the ideal conduct of policy, the authors focus instead on analytical methods and the changing interactions among the ingredients and properties that inform monetary models. The influences between economic performance and monetary policy regimes can be both grand and muted, and this volume clarifies the present state of this continually evolving relationship. - Presents extensive coverage of monetary policy theories with an eye toward questions raised by the recent financial crisis - Explores the policies and practices used in formulating and transmitting monetary policies - Questions fiscal-monetary connnections and encourages new thinking about the business cycle itself - Observes changes in the formulation of monetary policies over the last 25 years
Book Synopsis Handbook of Monetary Economics by : Benjamin M. Friedman
Download or read book Handbook of Monetary Economics written by Benjamin M. Friedman and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2010-12-08 with total page 970 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What are the goals of monetary policy and how are they transmitted? Top scholars summarize recent evidence on the roles of money in the economy, the effects of information, and the growing importance of nonbank financial institutions. Their investigations lead to questions about standard presumptions about the rationality of asset markets and renewed interest in fiscal-monetary connections. Stopping short of advocating conclusions about the ideal conduct of policy, the authors focus instead on analytical methods and the changing interactions among the ingredients and properties that inform monetary models. The influences between economic performance and monetary policy regimes can be both grand and muted, and this volume clarifies the present state of this continually evolving relationship. - Presents extensive coverage of monetary policy theories with an eye toward questions raised by the recent financial crisis - Explores the ingredients, properties, and implications of models that inform monetary policy - Observes changes in the formulation of monetary policies over the last 25 years
Book Synopsis Economic Theory and Financial Policy by : Jacques J. Polak
Download or read book Economic Theory and Financial Policy written by Jacques J. Polak and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-07-22 with total page 313 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As former Director of Research and a founding member of the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund, Jacques J. Polak has advised theoreticians and policymakers worldwide. This collection brings together his most current writings, and is published under the auspices of the IMF. The hallmark of Dr. Polak's recent research has been his ability to draw on decades of personal experience and reflection to comprehend and describe the context for current policy debates. In the past decade, he has contributed much to the debates on international financial policy and the role of the IMF, and this volume brings together most of these recent papers to make them accessible to a broader audience.
Book Synopsis Informal Funds Transfer Systems by : Mr.Samuel Munzele Maimbo
Download or read book Informal Funds Transfer Systems written by Mr.Samuel Munzele Maimbo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-08-18 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, there has been increased public interest in informal funds transfer (IFT) systems. This paper examines the informal hawala system, an IFT system found predominantly in the Middle East and South Asia. The paper examines the historical and socioeconomic context within which the hawala has evolved, the operational features that make it susceptible to potential financial abuse, the fiscal and monetary implications for hawala-remitting and hawala-recipient countries, and current regulatory and supervisory responses.
Book Synopsis Assessing External Sustainability in India by : Mr.Tim Callen
Download or read book Assessing External Sustainability in India written by Mr.Tim Callen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-12-01 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the solvency and sustainability of India’s external imbalances and analyzes the optimality of its capital flows. We use three approaches: an intertemporal model of the current account that allows for capital controls; a composite model of macroeconomic indicators that yields probabilities of future balance of payments crises; and scenarios that examine the path of the current account consistent with the stabilization of India’s external liability-to-GDP ratio. The results indicate that India’s intertemporal budget constraint is satisfied and that the path of its current account imbalances is sustainable, with some support for the optimality (given capital controls) of its external borrowing.
Book Synopsis Controlling Currency Mismatches in Emerging Markets by : Morris Goldstein
Download or read book Controlling Currency Mismatches in Emerging Markets written by Morris Goldstein and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2004-04-25 with total page 181 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In most of the currency crises of the 1990s, the largest output falls have occurred in those emerging economies with large currency mismatches, a phenomenon that occurs when assets and liabilities are denominated in different currencies such that net worth is sensitive to changes in the exchange rate. Currency mismatching makes crisis management much more difficult since it constrains the willingness of the monetary authority to reduce interest rates in a recession (for fear of initiating a large fall in the currency that would bring with it large-scale insolvencies). The mismatching also produces a "fear of floating" on the part of emerging economies, sometimes inducing them to make currency-regime choices that are not in their own long-term interest. Authors Morris Goldstein and Philip Turner summarize what is known about the origins of currency mismatching in emerging economies, discuss how best to define and measure currency mismatching, and review policy options for reducing the size of the problem.
Book Synopsis Annual Report of the Executive Directors for the Fiscal Year by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Annual Report of the Executive Directors for the Fiscal Year written by International Monetary Fund and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 532 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1589064488 Total Pages :224 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (89 download)
Book Synopsis IMF Staff Papers, Volume 52, No. 2 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book IMF Staff Papers, Volume 52, No. 2 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2005-08-29 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines contractionary currency crashes in developing countries. It explores the causes of India’s productivity surge around 1980, more than a decade before serious economic reforms were initiated. The paper finds evidence that the trigger may have been an attitudinal shift by the government in the early 1980s that, unlike the reforms of the 1990s, was pro-business rather than pro-market in character, favoring the interests of existing businesses rather than new entrants or consumers. A relatively small shift elicited a large productivity response, because India was far away from its income possibility frontier.
Book Synopsis Advanced Country Experiences with Capital Account Liberalization by : Age Bakker
Download or read book Advanced Country Experiences with Capital Account Liberalization written by Age Bakker and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2002-09-26 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After the industrial countries established current account convertibility in the late1950s, they began to phase out their capital controls. Their efforts were slow and tentative at first, but built up considerable momentum by the 1980s as market-oriented economic policies gained popularity. This paper describes how national policymakers’ views of capital controls shifted over time, and how these controls have been closely related to regulation in other policy areas, such as banking and financial markets. As developing countries seek to liberalize their capital accounts to obtain the benefits of increased integration with the global economy, what lessons can be drawn from industrial countries’ diverse experiences with capital controls, and how can a country’s liberalization measures be sequenced to minimize disturbances to its exchange rate and monetary policies?
