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Anticipating Arrears To The Imf Early Warning Systems
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Book Synopsis Anticipating Arrears to the IMF Early Warning Systems by : Ms.Chikako Oka
Download or read book Anticipating Arrears to the IMF Early Warning Systems written by Ms.Chikako Oka and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-01-01 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper attempts to predict the incidence of arrears to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) by modifying and applying two of the major early warning systems for currency crises: the "signals" approach proposed by Kaminsky, Lizondo, and Reinhart (1997) and the probit-based alternative developed by Berg and Pattillo (1998). The results, based on both in-sample and out-of-sample tests, appear encouraging. While the unique nature of IMF arrears poses some challenges, the models could be useful tools for identifying countries at high risk of incurring arrears to the IMF.
Book Synopsis Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises by : Paolo Manasse
Download or read book Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises written by Paolo Manasse and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-11-01 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop an early-warning model of sovereign debt crises. A country is defined to be in a debt crisis if it is classified as being in default by Standard & Poor's, or if it has access to nonconcessional IMF financing in excess of 100 percent of quota. By means of logit and binary recursive tree analysis, we identify macroeconomic variables reflecting solvency and liquidity factors that predict a debt-crisis episode one year in advance. The logit model predicts 74 percent of all crises entries while sending few false alarms, and the recursive tree 89 percent while sending more false alarms.
Book Synopsis Arrears to the IMF – A Ghost of the Past? by : Anne Oeking
Download or read book Arrears to the IMF – A Ghost of the Past? written by Anne Oeking and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-11-16 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we consider incidences of arrears to the IMF, focusing on protracted arrears cases and attempt to identify determinants of their occurrence. We use narrative and formal methods. In addition, we analyze determinants of the duration of arrears. We find that previous arrears, reserves coverage, and institutional quality are among the main determinants of arrears. In addition, we identify a role for political developments, including civil unrest, which make arrears more likely to arise and to last longer. We conclude that improved macroeconomic conditions and turnaround of political fortunes would help to clear the currently remaining protracted arrears cases.
Book Synopsis Financial Sector Crisis and Restructuring by : Carl-Johan Lindgren
Download or read book Financial Sector Crisis and Restructuring written by Carl-Johan Lindgren and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 103 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An IMF paper reviewing the policy responses of Indonesia, Korea and Thailand to the 1997 Asian crisis, comparing the actions of these three countries with those of Malaysia and the Philippines. Although all judgements are still tentative, important lessons can be learned from the experiences of the last two years.
Book Synopsis Repeated Use of IMF-Supported Programs: Determinants and Forecasting by : Martin Iseringhausen
Download or read book Repeated Use of IMF-Supported Programs: Determinants and Forecasting written by Martin Iseringhausen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-11-08 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the determinants of repeated use of Fund-supported programs in a large sample covering virtually all General Resources Account (GRA) arrangements that were approved between 1952 and 2012. Generally, the revolving nature of the IMF’s resources calls for the temporary sup-port of member countries to address balance of payments problems while repeated use has often been viewed as program failure. First, using probit models we show that a small number of country-specific variables such as growth, the current account balance, the international reserves position, and the institutional framework play a significant role in explaining repeated use. Second, we discuss the role of IMF-specific and program-specific variables and find evidence that a country’s track record with the Fund is a good predictor of repeated use. Finally, we conduct an out-of-sample forecasting exer-cise. While our approach has predictive power for repeated use, exact forecasting remains challenging. From a policy perspective, the results could prove useful to assess the risk IMF programs pose to the revolving nature of the Fund’s financial resources.
Book Synopsis Resolving Nonperforming Loans in Sub-Saharan Africa in the Aftermath of the COVID-19 Crisis by : Luc Eyraud
Download or read book Resolving Nonperforming Loans in Sub-Saharan Africa in the Aftermath of the COVID-19 Crisis written by Luc Eyraud and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-06-08 with total page 85 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sub-Saharan African countries are facing an unprecedented health and economic crisis that is likely to severely hurt credit quality and raise non-performing loans from already high levels. Banks have a critical role to play not only during the crisis by providing temporarily relief to businesses and households, but also during the recovery by supporting economic activity and facilitating the structural transformations engaged by the pandemic.
Book Synopsis Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010 by : Mr.Udaibir S. Das
Download or read book Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010 written by Mr.Udaibir S. Das and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a comprehensive survey of pertinent issues on sovereign debt restructurings, based on a newly constructed database. This is the first complete dataset of sovereign restructuring cases, covering the six decades from 1950–2010; it includes 186 debt exchanges with foreign banks and bondholders, and 447 bilateral debt agreements with the Paris Club. We present new stylized facts on the outcome and process of debt restructurings, including on the size of haircuts, creditor participation, and legal aspects. In addition, the paper summarizes the relevant empirical literature, analyzes recent restructuring episodes, and discusses ongoing debates on crisis resolution mechanisms, credit default swaps, and the role of collective action clauses.
Book Synopsis Review of the Adequacy of the Fund’s Precautionary Balances by : International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
Download or read book Review of the Adequacy of the Fund’s Precautionary Balances written by International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-04-04 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: On March 20, 2024, the IMF’s Executive Board reviewed the adequacy of the Fund’s precautionary balances. The review took place somewhat ahead of the standard two-year cycle, in view of the imminent attainment of the current indicative medium-term indicative target of SDR 25 billion for the first time. Precautionary balances comprise the Fund’s general and special reserves. They are a key element of the IMF’s multi-layered framework for managing financial risks. Precautionary balances provide a buffer to protect the Fund against potential losses, resulting from credit, income, and other financial risks. The review was based on the assessment framework established in 2010, which uses an indicative range for precautionary balances, linked to a forward-looking measure of total IMF non-concessional credit, to guide decisions on adjusting the medium-term target over time. While financial risks remain high, they are broadly unchanged from the last review, taking into account the further accumulation of reserves and strengthening of some risk mitigants. Against this background, Executive Directors broadly supported staff’s proposal to retain the current medium-term target of SDR 25 billion and increase the minimum floor from SDR 15 billion to SDR 20 billion. The Board also supported maintaining the biennial review cycle, with earlier reviews if warranted by developments that could materially affect the adequacy of precautionary balances.
Book Synopsis International Development Law by : Rumu Sarkar
Download or read book International Development Law written by Rumu Sarkar and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-03-26 with total page 453 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes how international development works, its shortcomings, its theoretical and practical foundations, along with prescriptions for the future. International Development Law provides the reader with new perspectives on the origins of global poverty, identifies legal impediments to sustainable economic growth, and provides a better understanding of the challenges faced by the international community in resolving global poverty issues. The text is structured into two basic parts: the first part deals with the theoretical and philosophic foundations of the subject, and the second part sets forth issues relating to the international financial architecture, namely, international borrowing practices, privatization, and emerging economies. In particular, the book provides new, innovative analysis on corruption as an impediment to sustainable development. The three interlocking facets of corruption are examined: transnational organized crime, Islamic-based international terrorism, and corruption within emerging economies and the international banking system. Thus fresh new analysis adds depth and clarity to a field that heretofore has been scattered and superficial. Finally, the “right to development” within the international human rights discourse is critically reviewed, particularly in light of new jurisprudence emerging from the African context.This book offers a fresh, new and balanced legal perspective on the development process. The text has been rigorously researched and has many practical facets based on the author’s professional experience within the international development field. It is an invaluable research and teaching tool since it takes a multidisciplinary approach to putting complex issues, legal trends and political questions into a clear, new perspective that is highly analytical as well as accessible to the reader. The author's elegant legal prose is both powerful and persuasive.
Book Synopsis Global Waves of Debt by : M. Ayhan Kose
Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Book Synopsis Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust—Guidance Note on New Enhanced Safeguards for Debt Sustainability and Capacity to Repay by : International Monetary
Download or read book Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust—Guidance Note on New Enhanced Safeguards for Debt Sustainability and Capacity to Repay written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-06-03 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust—Guidance Note on New Enhanced Safeguards for Debt Sustainability and Capacity to Repay
Download or read book IMF Research Bulletin written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Guidelines for Public Expenditure Management by : Mr.Jack Diamond
Download or read book Guidelines for Public Expenditure Management written by Mr.Jack Diamond and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-07-01 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economics training in public finances has focused more on tax than public expenditure issues, and within expenditure, more on policy considerations than the more mundane matters of public expenditure management. For many years, the IMF's Public Expenditure Management Division has answered specific questions raised by fiscal economists on such missions. Based on this experience, these guidelines arose from the need to provide a general overview of the principles and practices observed in three key aspects of public expenditure management: budget preparation, budget execution, and cash planning. For each aspect of public expenditure management, the guidelines identify separately the differing practices in four groups of countries - the francophone systems, the Commonwealth systems, Latin America, and those in the transition economies. Edited by Barry H. Potter and Jack Diamond, this publication is intended for a general fiscal, or a general budget, advisor interested in the macroeconomic dimension of public expenditure management.
Book Synopsis The East Asian Crisis by : Ms.Kalpana Kochhar
Download or read book The East Asian Crisis written by Ms.Kalpana Kochhar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-09-01 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews macroeconomic developments during the first year of the crisis in east Asia and draws some preliminary policy lessons. The crisis is rooted in the interaction of large capital inflows and weak private and public sector governance. At the same time, macroeconomic adjustment in these countries has resulted in some surprising outcomes, including severe economic contractions, low inflation, and rapid external adjustment. The lessons for crisis resolution include the importance of tight monetary policy early on for exchange rate stabilization, flexible fiscal policy, and comprehensive structural reform. Crises are avoided by prudent macroeconomic policies, diligent bank supervision, transparent data dissemination, strong governance, and forward-looking policymaking, even in good times.
Book Synopsis Identifying International Financial Contagion by : Mardi Dungey
Download or read book Identifying International Financial Contagion written by Mardi Dungey and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book tackles these factors theoretically, providing an intellectually satisfying framework for the understanding of financial contagion."--Jacket.
Book Synopsis Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises by : Mr.Markus Eberhardt
Download or read book Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises written by Mr.Markus Eberhardt and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-06 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop an empirical model to predict banking crises in a sample of 60 low-income countries (LICs) over the 1981-2015 period. Given the recent emergence of financial sector stress associated with low commodity prices in several LICs, we assign price movements in primary commodities a key role in our model. Accounting for changes in commodity prices significantly increases the predictive power of the model. The commodity price effect is economically substantial and robust to the inclusion of a wide array of potential drivers of banking crises. We confirm that net capital inflows increase the likelihood of a crisis; however, in contrast to recent findings for advanced and emerging economies, credit growth and capital flow surges play no significant role in predicting banking crises in LICs.
Book Synopsis IMF Survey by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book IMF Survey written by International Monetary Fund and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
