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Anchoring Bias In Recall Data
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Book Synopsis Anchoring Bias in Recall Data by : Godlonton, Susan
Download or read book Anchoring Bias in Recall Data written by Godlonton, Susan and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2016-05-20 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding the magnitude and source of measurement biases in self-reported data is critical to effective economic policy research. This paper examines the role of anchoring bias in self-reports of objective and subjective outcomes under recall. The research exploits a unique panel survey data set collected over a three-year period from four countries in Central America. It assesses whether respondents use their reported value of specific measures from the most recent survey period as a cognitive heuristic when recalling the value from a previous period, while controlling for the value they reported earlier. We find strong evidence of sizable anchoring bias in self-reported retrospective indicators for both objective measures (household and per capita income, wages, and hours spent on the household’s main activity) and subjective measures (reports of happiness, health, stress, and well-being). In general, we also observe a larger bias in response to negative changes for objective indicators and a larger bias in response to positive changes for subjective indicators.
Book Synopsis Anchoring Bias in Recall Data by : Susan Godlonton
Download or read book Anchoring Bias in Recall Data written by Susan Godlonton and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Self-reported retrospective survey data is widely used in empirical work but may be subject to cognitive biases, even over relatively short recall periods. This paper examines the role of anchoring bias in self-reports of objective and subjective outcomes under recall. We use a unique panel-survey dataset of smallholder farmers from four countries in Central America collected over a period of three years. We exploit differences between recalled and concurrent responses to quantify the degree of mental anchoring in survey recall data. We assess whether respondents use their reported value for the most recent period as a cognitive heuristic when recalling the value from a previous period, while controlling for the value they reported earlier. The results show strong evidence of sizeable anchoring bias in self-reported retrospective indicators for both objective measures (income, wages, and working hours) and subjective measures (reports of happiness, health, stress, and well-being). We also generally observe a larger bias in response to negative changes for objective indicators and a larger bias in response to positive changes for subjective indicators.
Book Synopsis Can survey design reduce anchoring bias in recall data? Evidence from Malawi by : Godlonton, Susan
Download or read book Can survey design reduce anchoring bias in recall data? Evidence from Malawi written by Godlonton, Susan and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-11-04 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recall biases in retrospective survey data are widely considered to be pervasive and have important implications for effective agricultural research. In this paper, we leverage the survey design literature and test three strategies to attenuate mental anchoring in retrospective data collection: question order effects, retrieval cues, and aggregate (community) anchoring. We embed a survey design experiment in a longitudinal survey of smallholder farmers in Malawi and focus on anchoring bias in maize production and happiness exploiting differences between recalled and concurrent responses. We find that asking for retrospective data before concurrent data reduces recall bias by approximately 34% for maize production, a meaningful improvement with no increase in survey data collection costs. Retrieval cues are less successful in reducing the bias for maize reports and involve more data collection time, while community anchors can exacerbate the bias. Reversing the order of questions and retrieval cues do not help to ease the bias for happiness reports.
Book Synopsis Can Survey Design Reduce Anchoring Bias in Recall Data? by : Susan Godlonton
Download or read book Can Survey Design Reduce Anchoring Bias in Recall Data? written by Susan Godlonton and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Judgment Under Uncertainty by : Daniel Kahneman
Download or read book Judgment Under Uncertainty written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1982-04-30 with total page 574 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Thirty-five chapters describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments, but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas rather than describing single experimental studies.
Book Synopsis A Narrative Review of Recall Biases by : Priscilla Bengo
Download or read book A Narrative Review of Recall Biases written by Priscilla Bengo and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Survey research involves asking people to remember past events. Four biases occur when one asks people to recall past events in the presence of current information: hindsight bias, telescoping bias, anchoring and adjustment bias and implicit theory of change bias. This paper conducts a narrative review summarizing empirical research findings on the four sources of bias in self-reporting. The review provides an up-to-date summary of this research from 54 studies. It shows that the four biases exist and have fairly long research histories, the biases can be moderated by certain variables, they have negative effects and the clarification of the processes underlying each bias occurred gradually and continues. The review also shows the importance of using an integrative framework in the development of methods to minimize the effects of the four biases as each bias never occurs alone.
Book Synopsis Retrospective Data and Recall Bias by : Peter J. Dolton
Download or read book Retrospective Data and Recall Bias written by Peter J. Dolton and published by . This book was released on 1998* with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Heuristics and Biases by : Thomas Gilovich
Download or read book Heuristics and Biases written by Thomas Gilovich and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2002-07-08 with total page 884 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book, first published in 2002, compiles psychologists' best attempts to answer important questions about intuitive judgment.
Book Synopsis How Data Quality Affects our Understanding of the Earnings Distribution by : Reza Che Daniels
Download or read book How Data Quality Affects our Understanding of the Earnings Distribution written by Reza Che Daniels and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-07-02 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book demonstrates how data quality issues affect all surveys and proposes methods that can be utilised to deal with the observable components of survey error in a statistically sound manner. This book begins by profiling the post-Apartheid period in South Africa's history when the sampling frame and survey methodology for household surveys was undergoing periodic changes due to the changing geopolitical landscape in the country. This book profiles how different components of error had disproportionate magnitudes in different survey years, including coverage error, sampling error, nonresponse error, measurement error, processing error and adjustment error. The parameters of interest concern the earnings distribution, but despite this outcome of interest, the discussion is generalizable to any question in a random sample survey of households or firms. This book then investigates questionnaire design and item nonresponse by building a response propensity model for the employee income question in two South African labour market surveys: the October Household Survey (OHS, 1997-1999) and the Labour Force Survey (LFS, 2000-2003). This time period isolates a period of changing questionnaire design for the income question. Finally, this book is concerned with how to employee income data with a mixture of continuous data, bounded response data and nonresponse. A variable with this mixture of data types is called coarse data. Because the income question consists of two parts -- an initial, exact income question and a bounded income follow-up question -- the resulting statistical distribution of employee income is both continuous and discrete. The book shows researchers how to appropriately deal with coarse income data using multiple imputation. The take-home message from this book is that researchers have a responsibility to treat data quality concerns in a statistically sound manner, rather than making adjustments to public-use data in arbitrary ways, often underpinned by undefensible assumptions about an implicit unobservable loss function in the data. The demonstration of how this can be done provides a replicable concept map with applicable methods that can be utilised in any sample survey.
Book Synopsis Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment by : Mary A. Meyer
Download or read book Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment written by Mary A. Meyer and published by SIAM. This book was released on 2001-01-01 with total page 471 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Expert judgment is invaluable for assessing products, systems, and situations for which measurements or test results are sparse or nonexistent. Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment: A Practical Guide takes the reader step by step through the techniques of eliciting and analyzing expert judgment, with special attention given to helping the reader develop elicitation methods and tools adaptable to a variety of unique situations and work areas. The analysis procedures presented in the book may require a basic understanding of statistics and probabilities, but the authors have provided detailed explanations of the techniques used and have taken special care to define all statistical jargon. Originally published in 1991, this book is designed so that those familiar with the use of expert judgment can quickly find the material appropriate for their advanced background.
Book Synopsis Export competition issues after Nairobi by : Díaz-Bonilla, Eugenio
Download or read book Export competition issues after Nairobi written by Díaz-Bonilla, Eugenio and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2016-09-16 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews, from the perspective of developing countries, the recent agreement reached at the 10th WTO Ministerial at Nairobi related to export competition, including exports subsidies, food aid, export credits and guarantees, and state trading enterprises (STEs). The legal and economic aspects of the agreement are examined, and the relevance of banning agricultural export subsidies are noted. This eliminates some of the worst-case scenarios, if agricultural world prices continue to soften and the important margin of export subsidies still allowed under the WTO framework was to be used. But given the relatively longer transition period for some relevant products before export subsidies are completely banned, the paper argues for continued monitoring of the potential use of this instrument. The paper also discusses the other components of export competition, looking into the legal and economic aspects. Some suggestions about continuous work on transparency and monitoring of current practices, and further disciplines are also presented.
Book Synopsis Current Trends in Knowledge Acquisition by : Bob Wielinga
Download or read book Current Trends in Knowledge Acquisition written by Bob Wielinga and published by IOS Press. This book was released on 1990 with total page 390 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Knowledge acquisition has become a major area of artificial intelligence and cognitive science research. The papers in this book show that the area of knowledge acquisition for knowledge-based systems is still a diverse field in which a large number of research topics are being addressed. However, several main themes run through the papers. First, the issues of integrating knowledge from different sources and K.A. tools is a salient topic in many papers. A second major topic in the papers is that of knowledge modelling. Research in knowledge-based systems emphasises the use of generic models of reasoning and its underlying knowledge. An important trend in the area of knowledge modelling aims at the formalisation of knowledge models. Where the field of knowledge acquisition was without tools and techniques years ago, now there is a rapidly growing body of techniques and tools. Apart from the integrated workbenches already mentioned above, several papers in this book present new tools. Although knowledge acquisition and machine learning have been considered as separate subfields of AI, there is a tendency for the two fields to come together. This publication combines machine learning techniques with more conventional knowledge elicitation techniques. A framework is presented in which reasoning, problem solving and learning together form a knowledge intensive system that can acquire knowledge from its own experience.
Book Synopsis Difficult Decisions in Colorectal Surgery by : Konstantin Umanskiy
Download or read book Difficult Decisions in Colorectal Surgery written by Konstantin Umanskiy and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2024-02-09 with total page 654 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thoroughly revised second edition reflects the exponential growth in the complex field of decision making in colorectal surgery, since the first edition published in 2017. Recommendations are based on newly published data and this book has 30% new additions with 58% chapters completely rewritten by new authors. The chapters in each volume adhere to a specific format. This approach provides uniformity to the presentations, making it possible to identify useful material at a glance. Covering new technology, brief chapters are multi-authored, and each devoted to one or two specific questions or decisions within that specialty that are difficult or controversial. Physicians from nonsurgical specialties give alternative and competing therapies for what was once the exclusive province of the surgeon.
Book Synopsis Cognitive Biases in Visualizations by : Geoffrey Ellis
Download or read book Cognitive Biases in Visualizations written by Geoffrey Ellis and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-09-27 with total page 185 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book brings together the latest research in this new and exciting area of visualization, looking at classifying and modelling cognitive biases, together with user studies which reveal their undesirable impact on human judgement, and demonstrating how visual analytic techniques can provide effective support for mitigating key biases. A comprehensive coverage of this very relevant topic is provided though this collection of extended papers from the successful DECISIVe workshop at IEEE VIS, together with an introduction to cognitive biases and an invited chapter from a leading expert in intelligence analysis. Cognitive Biases in Visualizations will be of interest to a wide audience from those studying cognitive biases to visualization designers and practitioners. It offers a choice of research frameworks, help with the design of user studies, and proposals for the effective measurement of biases. The impact of human visualization literacy, competence and human cognition on cognitive biases are also examined, as well as the notion of system-induced biases. The well referenced chapters provide an excellent starting point for gaining an awareness of the detrimental effect that some cognitive biases can have on users’ decision-making. Human behavior is complex and we are only just starting to unravel the processes involved and investigate ways in which the computer can assist, however the final section supports the prospect that visual analytics, in particular, can counter some of the more common cognitive errors, which have been proven to be so costly.
Book Synopsis Bias in Science and Communication by : Matthew Brian Welsh
Download or read book Bias in Science and Communication written by Matthew Brian Welsh and published by IOP Publishing Limited. This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is intended as an introduction to a wide variety of biases affecting human cognition, with a specific focus on how they affect scientists and the communication of science. The role of this book is to lay out how these common biases affect the specific types of judgements, decisions and communications made by scientists.
Book Synopsis Human-Computer Interaction – INTERACT 2019 by : David Lamas
Download or read book Human-Computer Interaction – INTERACT 2019 written by David Lamas and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-08-24 with total page 799 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The four-volume set LNCS 11746–11749 constitutes the proceedings of the 17th IFIP TC 13 International Conference on Human-Computer Interaction, INTERACT 2019, held in Paphos, Cyprus, in September 2019. The total of 111 full papers presented together with 55 short papers and 48 other papers in these books was carefully reviewed and selected from 385 submissions. The contributions are organized in topical sections named: Part I: accessibility design principles; assistive technology for cognition and neurodevelopment disorders; assistive technology for mobility and rehabilitation; assistive technology for visually impaired; co-design and design methods; crowdsourcing and collaborative work; cyber security and e-voting systems; design methods; design principles for safety/critical systems. Part II: e-commerce; education and HCI curriculum I; education and HCI curriculum II; eye-gaze interaction; games and gamification; human-robot interaction and 3D interaction; information visualization; information visualization and augmented reality; interaction design for culture and development I. Part III: interaction design for culture and development II; interaction design for culture and development III; interaction in public spaces; interaction techniques for writing and drawing; methods for user studies; mobile HCI; personalization and recommender systems; pointing, touch, gesture and speech-based interaction techniques; social networks and social media interaction. Part IV: user modelling and user studies; user experience; users’ emotions, feelings and perception; virtual and augmented reality I; virtual and augmented reality II; wearable and tangible interaction; courses; demonstrations and installations; industry case studies; interactive posters; panels; workshops.
Book Synopsis Behavioral Finance and Wealth Management by : Michael M. Pompian
Download or read book Behavioral Finance and Wealth Management written by Michael M. Pompian and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-01-03 with total page 359 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book that applies behavioral finance to the real world Understanding how to use behavioral finance theory in investing is a hot topic these days. Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman has described financial advising as a prescriptive activity whose main objective should be to guide investors to make decisions that serve their best interests. The reality? That's easier said than done. In the Second Edition of Behavioral Finance and Wealth Management, Michael Pompian takes a practical approach to the growing science of behavioral finance, and puts it to use for real investors. He applies knowledge of 20 of the most prominent individual investor biases into "behaviorally-modified" asset allocation decisions. Offering investors and financial advisors a "self-help" book, Pompian shows how to create investment strategies that leverage the latest cutting edge research into behavioral biases of individual investors. This book: Shows investors and financial advisors how to either moderate or adapt to behavioral biases, in order to improve investment results and identifies "the best practical allocation" for investment portfolios. Using these two sound approaches for guiding investment decision-making, behavioral biases are incorporated into the portfolio management process Uses updated cases studies to show investors and financial advisors how an investor's behavior can be modified to improve investment decision-making Provides useable methods for creating behaviorally modified investment portfolios, which may help investors to reach their long term financial goals Heightens awareness of biases so that financial decisions and resulting economic outcomes are improved Offers advice on managing the effects of each bias in order to improve investment results This Second Edition illustrates investors' behavioral biases in detail and offers financial advisors and their clients practical advice about how to apply the science of behavioral finance to improve overall investment decision making.
