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Author : Jeffery S. Abarbanell
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 56 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book Analysts' Forecasts as Proxies for Investor Beliefs in Empirical Research written by Jeffery S. Abarbanell and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Shuping Chen
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)
Download or read book The Relation between Dispersion in Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Returns written by Shuping Chen and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the conclusion in Diether, Malloy, and Scherbina (2002) that dispersion in analysts' forecasts proxies for differences in investor beliefs, and that prices reflect the beliefs of optimistic investors when dispersion is high. If this is the case, we expect to find higher earnings response coefficients (ERCs), related to negative earnings surprises, for high versus low dispersion firms. This follows because the negative earnings surprises are less consistent with the beliefs of optimists. However, we find smaller ERCs, which calls into question the optimism argument in DMS. Further, we find that the relatively low future returns earned by high forecast dispersion firms, documented in DMS, are explained by the well known post-earnings-announcement drift phenomena. Specifically, after sorting observations based on prior period standardized unexpected earnings (SUEs), which are associated with drift, the difference between the future returns of high versus low dispersion firms is not statistically significant.
Author : Davit Adut
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (544 download)
Download or read book Dispersion in Analysts' Forecasts written by Davit Adut and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial analysts are an important group of information intermediaries in the capital markets. Their reports, including both earnings forecasts and stock recommendations, are widely transmitted and have a significant impact on stock prices (Womack 1996; Lys and Sohn 1990, among others). Empirical accounting research frequently relies on analysts' forecasts to construct proxies for variables of interest. For example, the error in mean forecast is used as a proxy for earnings surprise (e.g., Brown et al. 1987; Wiedman 1996; Bamber et al. 1997). More recent papers provide evidence that the mean consensus forecast is used as a benchmark for evaluating firm performance. (Degeorge et al. 1999; Kasznik and McNichols 2002; Lopez and Rees 2002). Another stream of research uses the forecast dispersion as a proxy for the uncertainty or the degree of consensus among analysts and focuses on the information properties of analysts (e.g., Daley et al. 1988; Ziebart 1990; Imhoff and Lobo 1992; Lang and Lundholm 1996; Barron and Stuerke 1998; Barron et al. 1998). In this paper I combine the two streams of research, and investigate how lack of consensus changes the information environment of analysts and whether the markets perceive this change. More specifically, I investigate the amount of private information in a divergent earnings estimate (i.e. one that is above or below the consensus), whether the markets react to it at either the time of the forecast release, at the realization of actual earnings, and whether Regulation Fair Disclosure has changed the information environment differently for high and low dispersion firms.
Author : Patricia C. O'brien
Publisher : Forgotten Books
ISBN 13 : 9781334538919
Total Pages : 76 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (389 download)
Download or read book Analysts' Forecasts as Earnings Expectations (Classic Reprint) written by Patricia C. O'brien and published by Forgotten Books. This book was released on 2016-12-06 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Excerpt from Analysts' Forecasts as Earnings Expectations The use of predictions from univariate time-series models of earnings as earnings expectations has been more common than the use of analysts' forecasts, in part because of data availability However, several studies (brown and Rozeff Collins and Hopwood Fried and Givoly demonstrate that analysts are more accurate than univariate models, presumably because they can incorporate a broader information set than can a univariate model. Fried and Givoly also find that analysts' forecast errors are more closely associated with excess stock returns than are those of univariate models. An additional limitation of time - series models is their substantial data requirements, which impart a sample selection bias to the research, toward longer-lived and larger firms. Since analysts forecasts require no parameter estimation, sample selection bias is less severe. About the Publisher Forgotten Books publishes hundreds of thousands of rare and classic books. Find more at www.forgottenbooks.com This book is a reproduction of an important historical work. Forgotten Books uses state-of-the-art technology to digitally reconstruct the work, preserving the original format whilst repairing imperfections present in the aged copy. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in our edition. We do, however, repair the vast majority of imperfections successfully; any imperfections that remain are intentionally left to preserve the state of such historical works.
Author : Youfei Xiao
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (951 download)
Download or read book Empirical Models of Analyst Forecasts written by Youfei Xiao and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation is comprised of two studies on analyst forecasts. The first study provides empirical evidence about the objective function underlying analysts' choice of forecasts. Assumptions about sell-side analysts' objective function are critical to empirical researchers' understanding of their incentives and resulting behavior. In contrast to approaches used in previous papers which rely exclusively on statistical properties of forecasts, I compare theoretical models with alternate objective functions based on their ability to explain observed forecasts. A linear loss objective function which incorporates the effect future analysts' actions on analysts' deviation from peer forecasts is best rationalized by the data. I find that assumptions about the objective function have a substantial impact on the conclusions from empirical tests about analysts' incentives and behavior. The second study provides empirical estimates of uncertainty and disagreement about future earnings that underly analyst forecast dispersion. A parsimonious model which assumes that analysts' payoffs are jointly determined by forecast error and deviation from consensus reproduces many of the descriptive facts observed about forecast dispersion in the data. The strategic behavior that arises from the model distorts both the levels of forecast dispersion and the sensitivity of the measure with respect to cross-sectional variation in uncertainty. The estimated parameters perform better at predicting forecast dispersion out-of-sample than approaches based solely on regressions that use firm characteristics. Counterfactual simulations indicate that analysts' strategic incentives, together with the sequential forecast setting, plays a first-order role in determining forecast dispersion relative to the firm's information environment. The model-implied estimates of earnings uncertainty exhibit a substantially less negative association with future returns relative to the association generated by forecast dispersion. This finding partially reconciles the findings from previous studies with theories about the asset pricing implications of uncertainty and disagreement.
Author : Hakan Saraoglu
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 318 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (129 download)
Download or read book An Empirical Investigation of Bias in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts written by Hakan Saraoglu and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 318 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Sundaresh Ramnath
Publisher : Now Publishers Inc
ISBN 13 : 1601981627
Total Pages : 125 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (19 download)
Download or read book Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations written by Sundaresh Ramnath and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2008 with total page 125 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations reviews research related to the role of financial analysts in the allocation of resources in capital markets. The authors provide an organized look at the literature, with particular attention to important questions that remain open for further research. They focus research related to analysts' decision processes and the usefulness of their forecasts and stock recommendations. Some of the major surveys were published in the early 1990's and since then no less than 250 papers related to financial analysts have appeared in the nine major research journals that we used to launch our review of the literature. The research has evolved from descriptions of the statistical properties of analysts' forecasts to investigations of the incentives and decision processes that give rise to those properties. However, in spite of this broader focus, much of analysts' decision processes and the market's mechanism of drawing a useful consensus from the combination of individual analysts' decisions remain hidden in a black box. What do we know about the relevant valuation metrics and the mechanism by which analysts and investors translate forecasts into present equity values? What do we know about the heuristics relied upon by analysts and the market and the appropriateness of their use? Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations examines these and other questions and concludes by highlighting area for future research.
Author : Paul A. Janell
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 354 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (129 download)
Download or read book An Empirical Evaluation of the Relationship Between Errors in Analysts' Forecasts of Earnings Per Share and Stock Prices written by Paul A. Janell and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 354 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Seung-Woog Kwag
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 110 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (552 download)
Download or read book Are Markets Rational? written by Seung-Woog Kwag and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 110 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Jana Smith Raedy
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 33 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)
Download or read book Horizon-Dependent Underreaction in Financial Analysts' Earnings Forecasts written by Jana Smith Raedy and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides empirical evidence that underreaction in financial analysts' earnings forecasts increases with the forecast horizon, and the paper offers a rational economic explanation for this result. The empirical portion of the paper evaluates analysts' responses to earnings-surprise and other earnings-related information. Our empirical evidence suggests that analysts' earnings forecasts underreact to both types of information, and the underreaction increases with the forecast horizon. The paper also develops a theoretical model that explains this horizon-dependent analyst underreaction as a rational response to an asymmetric loss function. The model assumes that, for a given level of inaccuracy, analysts' reputations suffer more (less) when subsequent information causes a revision in investor expectations in the opposite (same) direction as the analyst's prior earnings forecast revision. Given this asymmetric loss function, underreaction increases with the risk of subsequent disconfirming information and with the disproportionate cost associated with revision reversal. Assuming that market frictions prevent prices from immediately unraveling these analyst underreaction tactics, investors buying (selling) stock based on analysts' positive (negative) earnings forecast revisions also benefit from analyst underreaction. Therefore, the asymmetric cost of forecast inaccuracy could arise from rational investor incentives consistent with a preference for analyst underreaction. Our incentives-based explanation for underreaction provides an alternative to psychology-based explanations and suggests avenues for further research.
Author : Beverly R. Walther
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)
Download or read book Investor Sophistication and Market Earnings Expectations written by Beverly R. Walther and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates whether sophisticated investors rely more on analyst forecasts than on time-series model forecasts in forming expected earnings. Specifically, I investigate if earnings-announcement-related returns are more closely associated with analyst (SRW) forecasts for firms for which the marginal investor is more (less) likely to be sophisticated. My proxies for investor sophistication are institutional ownership, analyst following, and firm size (Atiase [1985], Hand [1990]). I predict that market participants place more weight on the analyst forecast for firms with high institutional ownership, firms with high analyst following, and large firms.For a sample of 89,246 firm-quarter observations over 1980-1995, I find that the weight placed on the analyst (SRW) forecast is increasing (decreasing) in institutional ownership, analyst following, and firm size. Forecast availability (as captured by publication in The Wall Street Journal) or forecast accuracy cannot account for these findings. Overall, my results suggest that market earnings expectations do not consistently resemble either analyst or SRW forecasts. Rather, the cross-sectional variation in the relative weights placed on these two forecasts is related to proxies for the sophistication of the marginal investor.
Author : Cheng Few Lee
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 9811202400
Total Pages : 5053 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (112 download)
Download or read book Handbook Of Financial Econometrics, Mathematics, Statistics, And Machine Learning (In 4 Volumes) written by Cheng Few Lee and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2020-07-30 with total page 5053 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This four-volume handbook covers important concepts and tools used in the fields of financial econometrics, mathematics, statistics, and machine learning. Econometric methods have been applied in asset pricing, corporate finance, international finance, options and futures, risk management, and in stress testing for financial institutions. This handbook discusses a variety of econometric methods, including single equation multiple regression, simultaneous equation regression, and panel data analysis, among others. It also covers statistical distributions, such as the binomial and log normal distributions, in light of their applications to portfolio theory and asset management in addition to their use in research regarding options and futures contracts.In both theory and methodology, we need to rely upon mathematics, which includes linear algebra, geometry, differential equations, Stochastic differential equation (Ito calculus), optimization, constrained optimization, and others. These forms of mathematics have been used to derive capital market line, security market line (capital asset pricing model), option pricing model, portfolio analysis, and others.In recent times, an increased importance has been given to computer technology in financial research. Different computer languages and programming techniques are important tools for empirical research in finance. Hence, simulation, machine learning, big data, and financial payments are explored in this handbook.Led by Distinguished Professor Cheng Few Lee from Rutgers University, this multi-volume work integrates theoretical, methodological, and practical issues based on his years of academic and industry experience.
Author : Lawrence D. Brown
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 5 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)
Download or read book Timely Aggregate Analyst Forecasts as Better Proxies for Market Earnings Expectations written by Lawrence D. Brown and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 5 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Previous research (e.g., O'Brien [1988], Stickel [1990], and Brown [1991]) has documented that timely composites of analysts' forecasts are superior to the mean forecast in terms of predictive ability. An alternative criterion in choosing an earnings expectation proxy is market association, whereby the forecast whose error is most highly correlated with abnormal returns is the proxy of choice (Foster [1977]). This paper shows that timely composites are superior to the mean on the market association dimension. The results are robust to the three timely composites considered by Brown [1991] and pertain to each of five years and two deflators.
Author : John G. Cragg
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226116727
Total Pages : 185 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (261 download)
Download or read book Expectations and the Structure of Share Prices written by John G. Cragg and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2009-05-15 with total page 185 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: John G. Cragg and Burton G. Malkiel collected detailed forecasts of professional investors concerning the growth of 175 companies and use this information to examine the impact of such forecasts on the market evaluations of the companies and to test and extend traditional models of how stock market values are determined.
Author : Pamela S. Stuerke
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)
Download or read book The Frequency of Financial Analysts' Forecast Revisions written by Pamela S. Stuerke and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a theory of the frequency of financial analysts' forecast revisions and then tests the empirical predictions of the model. Financial analysts act as information intermediaries for firms and investors and therefore their forecast revision frequency helps explain the equilibrium of the supply of and demand for earnings predictions and assessments of firm value. The theory is based on the analyst's costs of information gathering and the profits obtained from selling the information to investors. Our analysis is conducted in two stages. In the first stage, a single-period, Kyle (1985) model is used to determine the profits generated by privately informed investors who trade on the analyst's forecast revision. The analyst is assumed to be compensated as a function of these profits. In the second stage, the analyst's optimal revision frequency to collect and sell private information is determined. We find that the analyst's optimal revision frequency is increasing in the variance of liquidity trading volume, the volatility of the underlying earnings process, and the earnings-response coefficient and decreasing in the total number of informed traders who invest in the firm and the cost of revision. These theoretical results are developed into empirical hypotheses that the frequency of analysts' forecast revisions between earnings announcements is positively associated with variability of the earnings process, average prior trading volume, and earnings response coefficients, and negatively associated with skewness of prior trading volume, after controlling for firm size and prior average daily stock price changes. These hypotheses are tested cross-sectionally and we find significant support each of the hypothesized relations.
Author : Beverly R. Walther
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book Does Investor Sentiment Affect Sell-Side Analysts' Forecast Bias and Forecast Accuracy written by Beverly R. Walther and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the association between investor expectations and its components and sell-side analysts' short-run quarterly earnings forecast bias and forecast accuracy. To measure investor expectations, we use the Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE) survey and decompose it into the “fundamental” component related to underlying economic factors (FUND) and the “sentiment” component unrelated to underlying economic factors (SENT). We find that analysts are the most optimistic and the least accurate when SENT is higher. Management long-horizon earnings forecasts attenuate the effects of SENT on forecast optimism and forecast accuracy. Analysts are also the most accurate when FUND is higher. Last, the market places more weight on unexpected earnings when SENT is high. These findings suggest that analysts are affected by investor sentiment and the market reacts more strongly to unexpected earnings when analyst forecasts are the least accurate. The last result potentially explains why prior research (for example, Baker and Wurgler 2006) finds an association between investor sentiment and cross-sectional stock returns.
Author : Daniel M. Bryan
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)
Download or read book Empirical Implications of Analyst Forecast Dispersion to the Information Dynamics of Valuation Models written by Daniel M. Bryan and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ohlson (1995) models firm value as a function of abnormal earnings, net book value and other unspecified information. Ohlson (2001) proposes consensus analyst forecasts as a proxy for the previously unspecified other information in his model, which we test using a two stage approach. The first stage identifies information in analyst forecasts that is reflected in current earnings and net book value, and the second stage regresses the first-stage residuals as the proxy for other new information. Our initial results using price-levels regressions concur with Dechow et al.'s (1999) findings that short-run consensus analyst forecasts are effective proxies for other information, and that the proposed model is no more descriptive than capitalizing short-run forecasts in perpetuity. We find that with high forecast dispersion, however, the effectiveness of analyst forecasts as well as the association between earnings and market values are diminished. Overall, we find that the descriptive ability of both the Ohlson model and the capitalized forecast model is dampened with high forecast dispersion, but the dampening is more severe for the capitalized forecast model, suggesting that the descriptive ability of Ohlson's valuation framework is strongest, relative to capitalized analyst forecasts, when uncertainty and information asymmetry are most severe. In contrast to our (and Dechow et al.'s) price-levels regression results, we find with returns regressions that Ohlson's model is consistently and significantly more descriptive than a model that simply capitalizes changes in analyst forecasts.
