Analysts Earnings Forecasts

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New Determinants of Analysts’ Earnings Forecast Accuracy

Author : Tanja Klettke
Publisher : Springer Science & Business
ISBN 13 : 3658056347
Total Pages : 120 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (58 download)

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Book Synopsis New Determinants of Analysts’ Earnings Forecast Accuracy by : Tanja Klettke

Download or read book New Determinants of Analysts’ Earnings Forecast Accuracy written by Tanja Klettke and published by Springer Science & Business. This book was released on 2014-04-28 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial analysts provide information in their research reports and thereby help forming expectations of a firm’s future business performance. Thus, it is essential to recognize analysts who provide the most precise forecasts and the accounting literature identifies characteristics that help finding the most accurate analysts. Tanja Klettke detects new relationships and identifies two new determinants of earnings forecast accuracy. These new determinants are an analyst’s “general forecast effort” and the “number of supplementary forecasts”. Within two comprehensive empirical investigations she proves these measures’ power to explain accuracy differences. Tanja Klettke’s research helps investors and researchers to identify more accurate earnings forecasts.

Handbook Of Financial Econometrics, Mathematics, Statistics, And Machine Learning (In 4 Volumes)

Author : Cheng Few Lee
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 9811202400
Total Pages : 5053 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (112 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook Of Financial Econometrics, Mathematics, Statistics, And Machine Learning (In 4 Volumes) by : Cheng Few Lee

Download or read book Handbook Of Financial Econometrics, Mathematics, Statistics, And Machine Learning (In 4 Volumes) written by Cheng Few Lee and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2020-07-30 with total page 5053 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This four-volume handbook covers important concepts and tools used in the fields of financial econometrics, mathematics, statistics, and machine learning. Econometric methods have been applied in asset pricing, corporate finance, international finance, options and futures, risk management, and in stress testing for financial institutions. This handbook discusses a variety of econometric methods, including single equation multiple regression, simultaneous equation regression, and panel data analysis, among others. It also covers statistical distributions, such as the binomial and log normal distributions, in light of their applications to portfolio theory and asset management in addition to their use in research regarding options and futures contracts.In both theory and methodology, we need to rely upon mathematics, which includes linear algebra, geometry, differential equations, Stochastic differential equation (Ito calculus), optimization, constrained optimization, and others. These forms of mathematics have been used to derive capital market line, security market line (capital asset pricing model), option pricing model, portfolio analysis, and others.In recent times, an increased importance has been given to computer technology in financial research. Different computer languages and programming techniques are important tools for empirical research in finance. Hence, simulation, machine learning, big data, and financial payments are explored in this handbook.Led by Distinguished Professor Cheng Few Lee from Rutgers University, this multi-volume work integrates theoretical, methodological, and practical issues based on his years of academic and industry experience.

Security Analyst Multi-year Earnings Forecasts and the Capital Market

Author : Philip Brown
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 188 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Security Analyst Multi-year Earnings Forecasts and the Capital Market by : Philip Brown

Download or read book Security Analyst Multi-year Earnings Forecasts and the Capital Market written by Philip Brown and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations

Author : Sundaresh Ramnath
Publisher : Now Publishers Inc
ISBN 13 : 1601981627
Total Pages : 125 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (19 download)

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Book Synopsis Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations by : Sundaresh Ramnath

Download or read book Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations written by Sundaresh Ramnath and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2008 with total page 125 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations reviews research related to the role of financial analysts in the allocation of resources in capital markets. The authors provide an organized look at the literature, with particular attention to important questions that remain open for further research. They focus research related to analysts' decision processes and the usefulness of their forecasts and stock recommendations. Some of the major surveys were published in the early 1990's and since then no less than 250 papers related to financial analysts have appeared in the nine major research journals that we used to launch our review of the literature. The research has evolved from descriptions of the statistical properties of analysts' forecasts to investigations of the incentives and decision processes that give rise to those properties. However, in spite of this broader focus, much of analysts' decision processes and the market's mechanism of drawing a useful consensus from the combination of individual analysts' decisions remain hidden in a black box. What do we know about the relevant valuation metrics and the mechanism by which analysts and investors translate forecasts into present equity values? What do we know about the heuristics relied upon by analysts and the market and the appropriateness of their use? Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations examines these and other questions and concludes by highlighting area for future research.

The Timing of Analysts' Earnings Forecasts

Author : Ilan Guttman
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 48 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis The Timing of Analysts' Earnings Forecasts by : Ilan Guttman

Download or read book The Timing of Analysts' Earnings Forecasts written by Ilan Guttman and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Existing literature assumes that the order and timing of analysts' earnings forecasts are determined exogenously. However, analysts choose when to issue their forecasts. This study develops a model that endogenizes the timing decision of analysts and analyzes their equilibrium timing strategies. In the model, analysts face a trade-ocurren; between the timeliness and the precision of their forecasts. The model introduces a timing game with two analysts, derives and analyzes its unique pure strategies equilibrium, and provides new empirical predictions about the precision and timing of analysts' forecasts. The equilibrium has one of two patterns: either the times of the analysts' forecasts cluster, or there is a separation in the times of the forecasts. The less informed and less similar the analysts are, the more likely it is that they forecast at different points in time. All else equal, analysts with a higher precision of initial private information tend to forecast earlier, and analysts with a higher learning ability tend to forecast later.

Analysts' Use of Earnings Forecasts in Predicting Stock Returns

Author : Sati P. Bandyopadhyay
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 17 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis Analysts' Use of Earnings Forecasts in Predicting Stock Returns by : Sati P. Bandyopadhyay

Download or read book Analysts' Use of Earnings Forecasts in Predicting Stock Returns written by Sati P. Bandyopadhyay and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Little attention has been paid to a principal decision context in which analysts' earnings forecasts are prepared, namely, as an input to their recommendations. We use two data sets, Value Line, USA, and Research Evaluation Service, Canada, and examine the importance of analysts' earnings forecasts for their stock price forecasts via three hypotheses: (1) analysts' earnings forecasts are important for their stock price forecasts; (2) analysts' long-term earnings forecasts are more important than their short-term earnings forecasts for their predictions of stock prices over a particular stock price forecast horizon; (3) the importance of analysts' earnings forecasts for their stock price forecasts rises as the joint earnings and stock price forecast horizon increases. We show that: (1) when the earnings forecast horizon is the next fiscal year, forecasted earnings explain only 30% of the variation in forecasted price; (2) the importance of forecasted earnings for forecasted price rises as the earnings forecast horizon increases; (3) in the long run, (i.e. three to five years hence), forecasted earnings explain about 60% of the variation in forecasted price. Decision usefulness is an ex ante concept, but tests regarding the usefulness of earnings for stock price generally have used actual (not expectational) data. Our evidence suggests that earnings expectations are decision useful, where the decision context is sell-side analysts' stock price forecasts. Our results are potentially important to users of sell-side analyst research reports. When a stock recommendation is accompanied only by short-run earnings forecasts, investors need to closely examine estimates of non-earnings variables to assess the quality of stock recommendations. In contrast, when stock recommendations are accompanied by both short-run and long-run earnings forecasts, investors need to examine estimates of non-earnings information variables less closely.

Introduction to Financial Forecasting in Investment Analysis

Author : John B. Guerard, Jr.
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1461452392
Total Pages : 245 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (614 download)

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Book Synopsis Introduction to Financial Forecasting in Investment Analysis by : John B. Guerard, Jr.

Download or read book Introduction to Financial Forecasting in Investment Analysis written by John B. Guerard, Jr. and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-01-04 with total page 245 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting—the art and science of predicting future outcomes—has become a crucial skill in business and economic analysis. This volume introduces the reader to the tools, methods, and techniques of forecasting, specifically as they apply to financial and investing decisions. With an emphasis on "earnings per share" (eps), the author presents a data-oriented text on financial forecasting, understanding financial data, assessing firm financial strategies (such as share buybacks and R&D spending), creating efficient portfolios, and hedging stock portfolios with financial futures. The opening chapters explain how to understand economic fluctuations and how the stock market leads the general economic trend; introduce the concept of portfolio construction and how movements in the economy influence stock price movements; and introduce the reader to the forecasting process, including exponential smoothing and time series model estimations. Subsequent chapters examine the composite index of leading economic indicators (LEI); review financial statement analysis and mean-variance efficient portfolios; and assess the effectiveness of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Using data from such firms as Intel, General Electric, and Hitachi, Guerard demonstrates how forecasting tools can be applied to understand the business cycle, evaluate market risk, and demonstrate the impact of global stock selection modeling and portfolio construction.

Public Disclosure of Corporate Earnings Forecasts

Author : Francis A. Lees
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 56 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (97 download)

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Book Synopsis Public Disclosure of Corporate Earnings Forecasts by : Francis A. Lees

Download or read book Public Disclosure of Corporate Earnings Forecasts written by Francis A. Lees and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Misstated Quarterly Earnings, Alternative Information, and Financial Analyst Earnings Forecast Revisions

Author : Michael L. Ettredge
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 48 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Misstated Quarterly Earnings, Alternative Information, and Financial Analyst Earnings Forecast Revisions by : Michael L. Ettredge

Download or read book Misstated Quarterly Earnings, Alternative Information, and Financial Analyst Earnings Forecast Revisions written by Michael L. Ettredge and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

An Empirical Study of Financial Analysts Earnings Forecast Accuracy

Author : Andrew Stotz
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 122 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis An Empirical Study of Financial Analysts Earnings Forecast Accuracy by : Andrew Stotz

Download or read book An Empirical Study of Financial Analysts Earnings Forecast Accuracy written by Andrew Stotz and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past 12 years, financial analysts across the world have been optimistically wrong with their 12-month earnings forecasts by 25.3%. This study may be the first of its kind to assess analyst earnings forecast accuracy at all listed companies across the globe, covering 70 countries. A review of prior research shows little uniformity in the preparation of the data set, yet differences in how outliers are treated, for example, can create substantially different results. This research lays out six specific steps to prepare the data set before any analysis is done.Three main conclusions come from this research: First, analyst earnings forecasts globally were 25.3% optimistically wrong, meaning on average, analysts started each year forecasting company profits of US$125, but 12 months later that company reported profits of US$100. Second, analysts had a harder time forecasting earnings for companies in emerging markets, where they were 35% optimistically wrong. Third, that analyst optimism mainly occurred when the companies they forecasted experienced very low levels of actual earnings growth, analysts did not make an equal, but opposite error for fast growth companies.

The Accuracy of Analysts' Earnings Forecasts and SFAS No. 52

Author : Gordian A. Ndubizo
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 22 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (239 download)

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Book Synopsis The Accuracy of Analysts' Earnings Forecasts and SFAS No. 52 by : Gordian A. Ndubizo

Download or read book The Accuracy of Analysts' Earnings Forecasts and SFAS No. 52 written by Gordian A. Ndubizo and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Three Essays on Analyst Earnings Forecast

Author : Wenjuan Xie
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 138 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (891 download)

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Book Synopsis Three Essays on Analyst Earnings Forecast by : Wenjuan Xie

Download or read book Three Essays on Analyst Earnings Forecast written by Wenjuan Xie and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 138 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Accounting for Income Taxes

Author : John R. Graham
Publisher : Now Pub
ISBN 13 : 9781601986122
Total Pages : 176 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (861 download)

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Book Synopsis Accounting for Income Taxes by : John R. Graham

Download or read book Accounting for Income Taxes written by John R. Graham and published by Now Pub. This book was released on 2012-11-09 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Accounting for Income Taxes is the most comprehensive review of AFIT research. It is designed both to introduce new scholars to this field and to encourage active researchers to expand frontiers related to accounting for income taxes. Accounting for Income Taxes includes both a primer about the rules governing AFIT (Sections 3-4) and a review of the scholarly studies in the field (Sections 5-8). The primer uses accessible examples and clear language to express essential AFIT rules and institutional features. Section 3 reviews the basic rules and institutional details governing AFIT. Section 4 discusses ways that researchers, policymakers, and other interested parties can use the tax information in financial statements to better approximate information in the tax return. The second half of the monograph reviews the extant scholarly studies by splitting the research literature into four topics: earnings management, the association between book-tax differences and earnings characteristics, the equity market pricing of information in the tax accounts, and book-tax conformity. Section 5 focuses on the use of the tax accounts to manage earnings through the valuation allowance, the income tax contingency, and permanently reinvested foreign earnings. Section 6 discusses the association between book-tax differences and earnings characteristics, namely earnings growth and earnings persistence. Section 7 explores how tax information is reflected in share prices. Section 8 reviews the increased alignment of accounting for book purposes and tax purposes. The remainder of the paper focuses on topics of general interest in the economics and econometric literatures. Section 9 highlights some issues of general importance including a theoretical framework to interpret and guide empirical AFIT studies, the disaggregated components of book-tax differences and research opportunities as the U.S. moves toward International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). Section 10 discusses econometric weaknesses that are common in AFIT research and proposes ways to mitigate their deleterious effects.

Market Response to Revisions in Analysts' Future Years' Earnings Forecasts

Author : Gregory Alan Sommers
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 194 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (515 download)

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Book Synopsis Market Response to Revisions in Analysts' Future Years' Earnings Forecasts by : Gregory Alan Sommers

Download or read book Market Response to Revisions in Analysts' Future Years' Earnings Forecasts written by Gregory Alan Sommers and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: Questions have been raised in the business press and prior academic research about future years' earnings forecast credibility, particularly long-term growth. This paper documents the market response to revisions in analysts' earnings forecasts for the next year and long-term growth (collectively "future years' earnings"). First, I show there is information content in future years' earnings forecast revisions as evidenced by changes in return volatility and volume at their release. Second, there is a direct market response to the magnitudes of the revisions in the next years' earnings forecasts and to upward revisions in long-term growth forecasts as evidenced by the coefficient relating the unexpected returns to the unexpected portion of the revisions. Finally, I find that investors use the next year earnings forecasts interpret the expected persistence of current year earnings forecast revisions. This is evidenced by increases (decreases) in the coefficient relating unexpected returns to the current year earnings forecast revisions when the next year earnings forecast revision is in the same (opposite) direction. This study documents market response to future years' earnings forecast revisions and indicates that they affect how investors respond to the revisions in current year earnings forecasts.

An Evaluation of Security Analysts' Earnings Forecasts

Author : Y. H. Lui
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 32 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis An Evaluation of Security Analysts' Earnings Forecasts by : Y. H. Lui

Download or read book An Evaluation of Security Analysts' Earnings Forecasts written by Y. H. Lui and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Which Matters? Accuracy or Boldness? Analysts Earnings Forecast and Institutional Holdings

Author : Min-Hsien Chiang
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis Which Matters? Accuracy or Boldness? Analysts Earnings Forecast and Institutional Holdings by : Min-Hsien Chiang

Download or read book Which Matters? Accuracy or Boldness? Analysts Earnings Forecast and Institutional Holdings written by Min-Hsien Chiang and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper aims to investigate the effect of financial analysts' earnings forecast on the institutional trading. In specific, we address three issues regarding the effect of financial analysts earnings forecast on the institutional holdings: (1) Do institutional investors pay more attention and more sensitive to analyst earnings forecast with higher forecast accuracy? (2) Do institutional investors prefer analysts with higher accuracy on earnings forecast? (3) Do institutional investors prefer analysts with bold attitude toward earnings forecast? Firstly, our empirical results show that institutional investors do pay attention to the accuracy of financial analysts earnings forecast. That is, firms with higher accuracy of analysts' earnings forecast tend to attract more institutional investors' attention and thus higher institutional holdings. Secondly, our results evidence that institutional investors prefer analysts with higher accuracy in their earnings forecast. That means institutional investors tend to follow more closely those analysts whose earnings forecasts are more accurate. Finally, we find that institutional investors in general are indifferent to the boldness of analysts earnings forecast. However, institutional investors will pay more attention and follow more closely those analysts whose earnings forecasts are not only accurate but also close to the consensus.

Using Analysts' Earnings Forecasts for Country/Industry-Based Asset Allocation

Author : William Forbes
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 35 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis Using Analysts' Earnings Forecasts for Country/Industry-Based Asset Allocation by : William Forbes

Download or read book Using Analysts' Earnings Forecasts for Country/Industry-Based Asset Allocation written by William Forbes and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper we investigate the usefulness of analysts' earnings forecast revisions in the allocation of funds to different industries and countries. In particular, we ask whether a post analyst revision announcement drift in prices can be exploited to guide an asset allocation strategy based on industry, or country, selection. Using monthly consensus I/B/E/S-First Call analysts' earnings forecasts for companies listed on the main European stock markets over the period January 1987 to December 2001, we find a significant post revision announcement effect for individual companies. However, the abnormal returns evaporate away as we move from an individual company level to an industry or country level. We provide two kinds of evidence which seem to cast doubt on the analysts' ability to fully incorporate industry and country specific information into their forecasts. First, we show that returns are driven more by common components than earnings forecast revisions. Second, we find that company specific news reflected by the revision signal dominates industry or country news.