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An Options Based Analysis Of Emerging Market Exchange Rate Expectations
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Book Synopsis AN OPTIONS-BASED ANALYSIS OF EMERGING MARKET EXCHANGE RATE EXPECTATION: BRAZIL'S REAL PLAN, 1944-9 by : José Manuel CAMPA
Download or read book AN OPTIONS-BASED ANALYSIS OF EMERGING MARKET EXCHANGE RATE EXPECTATION: BRAZIL'S REAL PLAN, 1944-9 written by José Manuel CAMPA and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis An Options-based Analysis of Emerging Market Exchange Rate Expectations by :
Download or read book An Options-based Analysis of Emerging Market Exchange Rate Expectations written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis “An” Option-based Analysis of Emerging Market Exchange Rate Expectations by : José Manuel Campa
Download or read book “An” Option-based Analysis of Emerging Market Exchange Rate Expectations written by José Manuel Campa and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis An Options-based Analysis of Emerging Market Exchange Rate Expectations by : José Campa
Download or read book An Options-based Analysis of Emerging Market Exchange Rate Expectations written by José Campa and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis An Options-based Analysis of Emerging Market Exchange Rate Expectations by : José Manuel Campa
Download or read book An Options-based Analysis of Emerging Market Exchange Rate Expectations written by José Manuel Campa and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis An Option-based Analysis of Emerging Market Exchange Rate Expectations by : José M. Campa
Download or read book An Option-based Analysis of Emerging Market Exchange Rate Expectations written by José M. Campa and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis An Options-Based Analysis of Emerging Market Exchange Rate Expectations by : José Manuel Campa
Download or read book An Options-Based Analysis of Emerging Market Exchange Rate Expectations written by José Manuel Campa and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper uses currency option data from the BMF, the Commodities and Futures exchange in Sao Paulo, Brazil, to investigate market expectations on the Brazilian Real-U.S. dollar exchange rate from October 1994 through July 1997. Using options data, we derive implied probability density functions (PDF) for expected future exchange rates and thus measures of the credibility of the quot;crawling pegquot; and target zone (quot;maxibandquot;) regimes governing the exchange rate. Since we do not impose an exchange rate model, our analysis is based on either the risk-neutral PDF or arbitrage-based tests of target zones. The paper, one of the first to use options data from an emerging market, finds that target zone credibility was poor prior to February 1996, but improved afterwards. The market anticipated periodic band adjustments, but over time developed greater confidence in the Real. We also test whether devaluation intensities estimated from these option prices can be explained by standard macroeconomic factors.
Book Synopsis An Options-based Analysis of Emerging Market Exchange Rate Expectations by : José Manuel Campa
Download or read book An Options-based Analysis of Emerging Market Exchange Rate Expectations written by José Manuel Campa and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis An Options-based Analysis of Emerging Market Exchange Rate Expectations by : José Campa
Download or read book An Options-based Analysis of Emerging Market Exchange Rate Expectations written by José Campa and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper uses currency option data from the BMF, the Commodities and Futures exchange in Sao Paulo, Brazil, to investigate market expectations on the Brazilian Real-U.S. dollar exchange rate from October 1994 through July 1997. Using options data, we derive implied probability density functions (PDF) for expected future exchange rates and thus measures of the credibility of the crawling peg' and target zone ( maxiband') regimes governing the exchange rate. Since we do not impose an exchange rate model, our analysis is based on either the risk-neutral PDF or arbitrage-based tests of target zones. The paper one of the first to use options data from an emerging market, finds that target zone credibility was poor prior to February 1996, but improved afterwards. The market anticipated periodic band adjustments, but over time developed greater confidence in the Real. We also test whether devaluation intensities estimated from these option prices can be explained by standard macroeconomic factors
Book Synopsis FX Option Performance by : Jessica James
Download or read book FX Option Performance written by Jessica James and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-06-22 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Get the little known – yet crucial – facts about FX options Daily turnover in FX options is an estimated U.S. $ 207 billion, but many fundamental facts about this huge and liquid market are generally unknown. FX Option Performance provides the information practitioners need to be more effective in the market, with detailed, specific guidance. This book is a unique and practical guide to option trading, with the courage to report how much these contracts have really made or lost. Breaking free from the typical focus on theories and generalities, this book gets specific – travelling back in history to show exactly how options performed in different markets and thereby helping investors and hedgers alike make more informed decisions. Not overly technical, the rigorous approach remains accessible to anyone with an interest in the area, showing investors where to look for value and helping corporations hedge their FX exposures. FX Option Performance begins with a quick and practical introduction to the FX option market, then provides specific advice toward structures, performance, rate fluctuation, and trading strategies. Examine the historical payoffs to the most popular and liquidly traded options Learn which options are overvalued and which are undervalued Discover surprising, generally unpublished facts about emerging markets Examine systemic option trading strategies to find what works and what doesn't On average, do options result in profit, loss, or breaking even? How can corporations more cost-effectively hedge their exposure to emerging markets? Are cheap out-of-the-money options worth it?
Book Synopsis Market Expectations and Option Prices by : Martin Mandler
Download or read book Market Expectations and Option Prices written by Martin Mandler and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a slightly revised version of my doctoral dissertation which has been accepted by the Department of Economics and Business Administration of the Justus-Liebig-Universitat Giessen in July 2002. I am indebted to my advisor Prof. Dr. Volbert Alexander for encouraging and supporting my research. I am also grateful to the second member of the doctoral committee, Prof. Dr. Horst Rinne. Special thanks go to Dr. Ralf Ahrens for providing part of the data and to my colleague Carsten Lang, who spent much time reading the complete first draft. Wetzlar, January 2003 Martin Mandler Contents 1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Part I Theoretical Foundations 2 Arbitrage Pricing and Risk-Neutral Probabilities........ .. 7 2.1 Arbitrage Pricing in the Black/Scholes-Merton Model... . . .. . 7 2.2 The Equivalent Martingale Measure and Risk-Neutral Valuation ............................................... 11 2.3 Extracting Risk-Neutral Probabilities from Option Prices. . . .. 13 2.4 Summary............................................... 15 Appendix 2A: The Valuation Function in the Black/Scholes-Merton Model .................................................. 16 Appendix 2B: Some Further Details on the Replication Strategy ... 21 3 Survey of the Related Literature .......................... 23 3.1 The Information Content of Forward and Futures Prices. . . .. . 24 3.2 The Information Content of Implied Volatilities ............. 25 3.2.1 Implied Volatilities and the Risk-Neutral Probability Density .......................................... 27 3.2.2 The Term Structure of Implied Volatilities. . . . . . . .. . . 29 . 3.2.3 The Forecasting Information in Implied Volatilities. . .. 30 3.2.4 Implied Correlations as Forecasts of Future Correlations 43 VIII Contents 3.3 The Skewness Premium ..... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . 45 . . . . . . .
Book Synopsis Forecasting Emerging Market Exchange Rates from Foreign Equity Options by : Steve Swidler
Download or read book Forecasting Emerging Market Exchange Rates from Foreign Equity Options written by Steve Swidler and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The use of derivatives to infer future exchange rates has long been a subject of interest in the international finance literature. With the recent currency crises in Mexico, Southeast Asia, and Brazil, work on exchange rate expectations in emerging markets is of particular interest. For some emerging markets, foreign equity options are the only liquid exchange traded derivatives with currency information embedded in their prices. Given that emerging markets sometimes undergo currency realignment with discrete jumps in their exchange rate, estimation of risk-neutral probability density functions from foreign equity option data provides valuable evidence concerning market expectations. To illustrate the use of foreign equity options in estimating market beliefs, we consider Telmex options around the 1994 peso devaluation and find evidence that markets anticipated the change in the Mexican government's foreign exchange policy.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Economic Forecasting by : Graham Elliott
Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Newnes. This book was released on 2013-08-23 with total page 719 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
Author :International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :9781589061057 Total Pages :94 pages Book Rating :4.0/5 (61 download)
Book Synopsis Global Financial Stability Report, March 2002 by : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report, March 2002 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2002-03-13 with total page 94 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This March 2002 issue of the Global Financial Stability Report highlights that financial markets ended the year 2001 on a positive note. Equity markets recovered and rallied noticeably from their lows of late September. In bond markets, yield spreads of corporate and high-yielding bonds, particularly emerging market bonds, narrowed against the U.S. Treasury. At the same time, the U.S. Treasury yield curve steepened, and the U.S. dollar has strengthened. Financial markets thus anticipate, and have priced in, a recovery in economic activity and corporate earnings during 2002.
Book Synopsis Out-of-Sample Exchange Rate Predictability in Emerging Markets by : Ibrahim Jamali
Download or read book Out-of-Sample Exchange Rate Predictability in Emerging Markets written by Ibrahim Jamali and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We provide an in-depth analysis of the predictive ability of models with fundamentals and technical indicators for fourteen emerging market currencies. Our findings suggest that the forecasts from the symmetric Taylor rule as well as from a predictive regression exploiting the informational content of the momentum indicator are statistically superior to those of the random walk and other competing models. We combine the forecasts from the two best performing models via simple techniques and assess the economic significance of the out-of-sample forecasts using a trading strategy based on the sign of the predicted currency returns. Our economic significance results demonstrate that the symmetric Taylor rule, momentum and combination forecasts generate the largest net-of-transactions costs and risk-adjusted returns.
Book Synopsis Internationalization of Emerging Market Currencies by : Mr.Faisal Ahmed
Download or read book Internationalization of Emerging Market Currencies written by Mr.Faisal Ahmed and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-10-19 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.
Book Synopsis International Financial Architecture by : C. Peláez
Download or read book International Financial Architecture written by C. Peláez and published by Springer. This book was released on 2005-11-01 with total page 427 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Group of Seven Industrialized Countries, G7 developed a new doctrine of international supervision and regulation of financial markets. The G7 instructed international financial institution such as the IMF, the Bank for International Settlements, the World Bank and the Multilateral Development Banks to tighten their supervision and regulation of international finance. This volume examines this doctrine sometimes known as the 'New Architecture of the International Financial System' or IFA. Strengthening of the international financial system never ends and there have been recurring vulnerabilities in international financial architecture. The book examines current practices and its consequences and how the IFA has evolved and its alternatives. The book draws upon academic knowledge, practitioner techniques in financial risk management and official doctrine to analyze how investors, creditors and debts function within the new architecture.
