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An Evaluation Of The World Economic Outlook Forecasts
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Book Synopsis An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts by : Allan Timmermann
Download or read book An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts written by Allan Timmermann and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-03 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important to review the performance of these forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forecasts. This paper conducts a series of statistical tests to evaluate the quality of the WEO forecasts for a very large cross section of countries, with particular emphasis on the recent recession and recovery. It assesses whether forecasts were unbiased and informationally efficient, and characterizes the process whereby WEO forecasts get revised as the time to the point of the forecast draws closer. Finally, the paper assess whether forecasts can be improved by combining WEO forecasts with the Consensus forecasts. The results suggest that the performance of the WEO forecasts is similar to that of the Consensus forecasts. While WEO forecasts for many variables in many countries meet basic quality standards in some, if not all, dimensions, the paper raises a number of concerns with current forecasting performance.
Book Synopsis IMF Working Papers by : Allan Timmermann
Download or read book IMF Working Papers written by Allan Timmermann and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, April 2024 by : International Monetary
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, April 2024 written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-04-16 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The latest World Economic Outlook reports economic activity was surprisingly resilient through the global disinflation of 2022–23, despite significant central bank interest rate hikes to restore price stability. Risks to the global outlook are now broadly balanced compared with last year. Monetary policy should ensure that inflation touches down smoothly, while a renewed focus on fiscal consolidation is needed to rebuild room for budgetary maneuver and to ensure debt sustainability. Structural reforms are crucial to revive medium-term growth prospects amid constrained policy space.
Book Synopsis An Evaluation of World Economic Outlook Growth Forecasts, 2004–17 by : Oya Celasun
Download or read book An Evaluation of World Economic Outlook Growth Forecasts, 2004–17 written by Oya Celasun and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-08-06 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the performance of World Economic Outlook (WEO) growth forecasts for 2004-17. Short-term real GDP growth forecasts over that period exhibit little bias, and their accuracy is broadly similar to those of Consensus Economics forecasts. By contrast, two- to five-year ahead WEO growth forecasts in 2004-17 tend to be upward biased, and in up to half of countries less accurate than a naïve forecast given by the average growth rate in the recent past. The analysis suggests that a more efficient use of available information on internal and external factors—such as the estimated output gap, projected terms of trade, and the growth forecasts of major trading partners—can improve the accuracy of some economies’ growth forecasts.
Book Synopsis Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook by :
Download or read book Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook written by and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 340 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis A Simple Forecasting Accuracy Criterion Under Rational Expectations by : Mr.José M. Barrionuevo
Download or read book A Simple Forecasting Accuracy Criterion Under Rational Expectations written by Mr.José M. Barrionuevo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1992-06-01 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A simple criterion based on the properties of the forecast error is presented to evaluate the accuracy of forecasts. The efficiency conditions of an optimization problem are used to show that under rational expectations the standard statistical conditions are necessary, but not sufficient to ensure efficiency. This criterion is used to examine the accuracy of the World Economic Outlook projections of growth and inflation for the seven major industrial countries. Time series models are then estimated and the efficiency of the World Economic Outlook projections relative to a benchmark time series model is examined. A number of empirical tests suggest that the year ahead projections of growth and inflation in the World Economic Outlook are unbiased after 1982.
Author :International Monetary Fund (IMF) Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :9781488308000 Total Pages : pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (8 download)
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook April 2015 by : International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Download or read book World Economic Outlook April 2015 written by International Monetary Fund (IMF) and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-04-25 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The World Economic Outlook presents the IMF staff's analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups (classified by region, stage of development, etc.), and in many individual countries. Focusing on major economic policy issues as well as on the analysis of economic developments and prospects, it is a respected, one-stop, trusted resource offering remarkable insight, balance, and perspective to decision makers and policymakers worldwide. Published at least twice yearly, the World Economic Outlook presents the outlook for growth, inflation, trade, and other economic developments in a clear, practical format. Each WEO considers the issues affecting advanced and emerging economies. The analytic chapters provide the global intelligence required to deal with global interdependence. These analyses focus on pressing concerns or hotly debated issues, putting prospects for liquidity, inflation, and growth into context.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook written by and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook by : World economic outlook (International Monetary Fund)
Download or read book World Economic Outlook written by World economic outlook (International Monetary Fund) and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498378005 Total Pages :884 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, April 2015 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, April 2015 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-04-14 with total page 884 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global growth remains moderate and uneven, and a number of complex forces are shaping the outlook. These include medium- and long-term trends, global shocks, and many country- or region-specific factors. The April 2015 WEO examines the causes and implications of recent trends, including lower oil prices, which are providing a boost to growth globally and in many oil-importing countries but are weighing on activity in oil-exporting countries, and substantial changes in exchange rates for major currencies, reflecting variations in country growth rates and in exchange rate policies and the lower price of oil. Additionally, analytical chapters explore the growth rate of potential output across advanced and emerging market economies, assessing its recent track and likely future course; and the performance of private fixed investment in advanced economies, which has featured prominently in the public policy debate in recent years, focusing on the role of overall economic weakness in accounting for this performance.
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book World Economic Outlook written by International Monetary Fund and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The World Economic Outlook is the core publicaiton of the IMF World Economic and Financial Surveys series. Published twice a year, it discusses balance of payments adjustment of major groups of countries, policy options available to them, inflation and interest rates, debt and capital flows. In addition, this report features detailed scenarios for the evolution of the world economy based on the adoption of alternative policy measures.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND ISBN 13 :9781557756107 Total Pages :260 pages Book Rating :4.7/5 (561 download)
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, October 1997 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 1997 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 1996-10-01 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The World Economic Outlook, published twice a year in English, French, Spanish, and Arabic, presents IMF staf economists' analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium tem. Chapters give an overview of the world economy; consider issues affecting industrial countries, developing countries, and economies in transition to market; and address topics of pressing current interest. Annexes, boxes, charts, and an extensive statistical appendix augment the text.
Book Synopsis Evaluating GDP Forecasting Models for Korea by : Mr.Li Zeng
Download or read book Evaluating GDP Forecasting Models for Korea written by Mr.Li Zeng and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-03-01 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a new forecasting framework for GDP growth in Korea to complement and further enhance existing forecasting approaches. First, a range of forecast models, including indicator- and pure time-series models, are evaluated for their forecasting performance. Based on the evaluation results, a new forecasting framework is developed for GDP projections. The framework also generates a data-driven reference band for the projections, and is therefore convenient to update. The framework is applied to the current World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast period and the Great Recession to compare its performance to past projections. Results show that the performance of the new framework often improves the forecasts, especially at quarterly frequency, and the forecasting exercise will be better informed by cross-checking with the new data-driven framework projections.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook written by and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A survey by the IMF staff usually published twice a year. It presents IMF staff economists' analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium term. Chapters give an overview as well as more detailed analysis of the world economy; consider issues affecting industrial countries, developing countries, and economies in transition to market; and address topics of pressing current interest.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Forecasting by : Michael J. Artis
Download or read book Fiscal Forecasting written by Michael J. Artis and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book World Economic Outlook written by and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook a Survey by :
Download or read book World Economic Outlook a Survey written by and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
