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An Empirical Time Series Analysis On The Determinants Of Gross National Saving In Ethiopia Ardl Approach For Co Integration
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Book Synopsis An Empirical Time Series Analysis on the Determinants of Gross National Saving in Ethiopia. ARDL Approach for Co-integration by : Yohannes Ghebru Alemayehu
Download or read book An Empirical Time Series Analysis on the Determinants of Gross National Saving in Ethiopia. ARDL Approach for Co-integration written by Yohannes Ghebru Alemayehu and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2014-10-07 with total page 115 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Master's Thesis from the year 2014 in the subject Economics - Case Scenarios, Addis Ababa University (Addis Ababa University), course: Economics, language: English, abstract: The objective of this paper was to investigate the macroeconomic determinants of gross national saving in Ethiopia using time series annual data form 1970/71-2010/11. In this study, effort has been made to identify the long run and short run determinants of national saving in Ethiopia using an ARDL bounds testing approach and ECM to capture both short run and long run relationships. Estimated results revealed that financial development (FD) and Current account deficit (CAD) are significant determinants of gross national saving in Ethiopia in the long run. But gross national disposable income (LGNDI), dependency ratio (DR), budget deficit (BD) and inflation, approximated by consumer price index (CPI), found to be statistically insignificant determinants of gross national saving in Ethiopia in the long run. However, in the short run, except consumer price index (CPI) and dependency ratio (DR) the rest of the explanatory variables such as gross national disposable income (LGNDI), financial development (FD), current account deficit (CAD) and budget deficit (BD) found to have statistically significant meaning in explaining gross national saving in Ethiopia. The speed of adjustment has value 0.66978 with negative sign, which showed the convergence of saving model towards long run equilibrium. The overall findings of the study underlined the importance of raising the level of income in a sustainable manner, minimizing the adverse impacts of budget deficit and inflation rate and creating competitive environment in the financial sector.
Book Synopsis Determinants of Gross National Saving in Ethiopia by : Yohannes Ghebru Alemayehu
Download or read book Determinants of Gross National Saving in Ethiopia written by Yohannes Ghebru Alemayehu and published by LAP Lambert Academic Publishing. This book was released on 2014-09-26 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The objective of this paper was to investigate the macroeconomic determinants of gross national saving in Ethiopia using time series annual data form 1970/71-2010/11. Effort has been made to identify the long run and short run determinants of national saving in Ethiopia using an ARDL bounds testing approach to capture both short run and long run relationships. Estimated results revealed that financial development and Current account deficit are significant determinants of gross national saving, but gross national disposable income, dependency ratio, budget deficit and inflation found to be statistically insignificant determinants of gross national saving in Ethiopia in the long run.However, in the short run, except consumer price index and dependency ratio the rest of the explanatory variables such as gross national disposable income, financial development, current account deficit and budget deficit found to have statistically significant meaning in explaining gross national saving in Ethiopia. The speed of adjustment has value 0.66978 with negative sign, which showed the convergence of saving model towards long run equilibri
Book Synopsis Determinants of Gross Domestic Saving in Ethiopia by : Kidane Badeg Mirdeto
Download or read book Determinants of Gross Domestic Saving in Ethiopia written by Kidane Badeg Mirdeto and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study conduct a time series analysis of the determinants of gross domestic saving in Ethiopia using co-integration and error correction econometric modeling, and employ data for the 1971-2009 periods collected from National bank of Ethiopia (NBE), MOFED, CSA and world bank(WB) on annual base. The study revealed that growth of per capita income have significant positive influence on domestic saving while the current per capita income level is significant and negatively related with domestic saving in the long run, but turn to insignificant in the short run model. The financial variables represented by real deposit rate and development of broad money supply do not show any impact in improving the domestic saving. Instead they showed insignificant negative coefficient which suggests the existence of under developed financial market in Ethiopia. Inflation rate exerted negative effect on saving in Ethiopia through portfolio adjustment from real money balance toward real asset. The study also showed that dependence ratio was a significant negative determinant of saving in the long run through reducing of labor supply and increase consumption of goods by unproductive group. Tax growth rate showed positive significant effect on domestic saving through its effect on government and private saving slackened. The gross domestic saving growth negatively correlated with lagged domestic saving which indicated that there was no persistence in the behavior of domestic saving in Ethiopia over time. Finally the study suggests that it is important for domestic saving to maintain sustainability of current economic growth and stabilize the economy as well as it needs due attention to improve the under developed financial markets. Further, broadening family planning service is needed in to ameliorate the effect of demographic structure on domestic saving in Ethiopia.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Determinants of Economic Growth in Ethiopia. A Vector Correction Model by : Asmamaw Kassahun Agdew
Download or read book Macroeconomic Determinants of Economic Growth in Ethiopia. A Vector Correction Model written by Asmamaw Kassahun Agdew and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2019-10-07 with total page 77 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Thesis (M.A.) from the year 2016 in the subject Economics - Case Scenarios, grade: 3.89, , language: English, abstract: The main objective of this study is to investigate the macroeconomic determinants of economic growth in Ethiopia from 1974-2014. A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to cointegration approach is applied in order to investigate the long run and short run relationship between real GDP and its macroeconomic determinants. The finding of the cointegration test shows that there is a stable long run relationship between real GDP, gross domestic saving, labor, human capital, export, FDI, foreign aid and external debt. The long run empirical result reveals gross domestic saving, human capital proxied by government expenditure on health and education, and labor force have positive and significant relationship with real output. However export and real GDP have positive but insignificant relationship. External debt, foreign aid and FDI have negatively significant relationship with real GDP during the study period. The short run dynamic results shows that human capital, saving and FDI have positive relationship with output growth whereas labor, export, aid and external debt have negative relationship with Real GDP. The coefficient of equilibrating error term (ECM) suggests that the speed of adjustment (feedback effect towards the long run equilibrium) takes few years for full adjustment when there is a shock in the system. In order to sustain long run growth the government or policy makers should design appropriate policies that results in the efficient use of resources contributing to economic growth and proper management of variables resulting to negative growth in order to reverse their effect on output.
Book Synopsis Factors Affecting Gross Domestic Saving in Ethiopia by : Israel Yigezu
Download or read book Factors Affecting Gross Domestic Saving in Ethiopia written by Israel Yigezu and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The objective of this study is to investigate the short run and long run factors affecting gross domestic saving in Ethiopia using time series data covering the time period of 1985 to 2020. To achieve this desired objective, the study employed Johanson cointegration test to identify the existence of long run relationship between variables after data stationarity has ensured using Augumented Ducky Fuller test. The results reveal that there are up to four cointegrating equationtion in the model. The study also employed Vector Error Correction Model to identify the impacts of factors affecting gross domestic saving in Ethiopia both in short run and lang run. The results reveal that only gross domestic product, real interest rate, annual broad money growth rate and government final consumption expenditure have statistically significant effect on gross domestic saving in Ethiopia in the short run. In long run, Illicit Financial Flows, government final consumption expenditure and annual broad money growth rate have statistically significant negative impact on gross domestic saving while official development assistance, gross domestic product, real interest rate, and inflation rate have statistically significant positive effect on gross domestic saving cetries purbus. The Granger causality test results reveal that there is unidirectional causal relationship between gross domestic saving and illicit financial flows, real interest rate, annual broad money growth rate, official development assistance and inflation rate that runs from these variables to gross domestic saving except for inflation rate that runs from gross domestic saving to inflation rate. Unlike other variables, gross domestic product and government final consumption expenditure have bidirectional causal relationship with gross domestic saving in Ethiopia over the study period.
Book Synopsis Factors Affecting Gross Domestic Saving in Ethiopia. A Vector Error Correction Model Approach by : Anonym
Download or read book Factors Affecting Gross Domestic Saving in Ethiopia. A Vector Error Correction Model Approach written by Anonym and published by . This book was released on 2022-09-21 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Master's Thesis from the year 2022 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: Very Good, course: Economics, language: English, abstract: The objective of this study is to investigate the short run and long run factors affecting gross domestic saving in Ethiopia using time series data covering the time period of 1985 to 2020. To achieve this desired objective, the study employed Johanson cointegration test to identify the existence of long run relationship between variables after data stationary has ensured using Augmented Ducky Fuller test. The results reveal that there are up to four cointegrating equation in the model. The study also employed Vector Error Correction Model to identify the impacts of factors affecting gross domestic saving in Ethiopia both in short run and long run.
Book Synopsis Determinants of Trade Balance in Ethiopia by : Alekaw Yeshineh
Download or read book Determinants of Trade Balance in Ethiopia written by Alekaw Yeshineh and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This article examines the short-run and long-run relationships of trade balance with the explanatory variables such as income, money supply, real exchange rate, budget balance and foreign income in Ethiopia. Income and money supply are included in the model in order to examine the absorption and monetary approaches to the balance of payment (trade balance) besides the conventional approach of elasticity, using exchange rate. The inclusion of budget balance is purposely to examine the existence twin deficit hypothesis in the Ethiopian context. The foreign income of top 20 trading partners of Ethiopia is also included in the model to test the effect on trade balance of Ethiopia. The bound testing approach of cointegration and error correction model, developed within the autoregressive distributed lag, (ARDL) model frame work is applied to annual data for the period of 1970/71 to 2010/11 to investigate whether a long run relationship exists between trade balance and its determinants. Additionally, the variance decomposition (VDC) and impulse response functions (IRF's) are used for further inferences. Using this approach we find evidence of long run relationships between trade balance and its determinants. The estimated results show that exchange rate appreciation (depreciation) is negatively (positively) related to the trade balance in the long-run and short-run consistent to economic theories. The empirical results provide strong evidence that exchange rate play a weaker role in determining the behaviour of trade balance in Ethiopia. Income, budget balance and money supply have a stronger impact on trade balance.
Book Synopsis An Empirical Assessment of the Exchange Rate Pass-through in Mozambique by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book An Empirical Assessment of the Exchange Rate Pass-through in Mozambique written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-05-06 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Determining the magnitude and speed of the exchange rate passthrough (ERPT) to inflation has been of paramount importance for policy-makers in developed and emerging economies. This paper estimates the exchange rate passthrough in Mozambique using econometric techniques on a sample spanning from 2001 to 2019. Results suggest that the ERPT is assymetric, sizable and fast, with 50 percent of the exchange rate variations passing through to prices in less than six months. Policy-makers should continue to pursue low and stable inflation and develop a strong track record of prudent macroeconomic policies for the ERPT to decline.
Book Synopsis Lebanon-Determinants of Commercial Bank Deposits in a Regional Financial Center by : Mr.Harald Finger
Download or read book Lebanon-Determinants of Commercial Bank Deposits in a Regional Financial Center written by Mr.Harald Finger and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-09-01 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper empirically examines the demand for commercial bank deposits in Lebanon, a regional financial center. With Lebanon's high fiscal deficits financed largely by domestic commercial banks that rely on deposit funding, deposit growth is a key variable to assess government financing conditions. At the macro level, we find that domestic factors such as economic activity, prices, and the interest differential between the Lebanese pound and the U.S. dollar are significant in explaining deposit demand, as are external factors such as advanced economy economic and financial conditions and variables proxying the availability of funds from the Gulf. Impulse response functions and variance decomposition analyses underscore the relative importance of the external variables. At the micro level, we find that in addition, bank-specific variables, such as the perceived riskiness of individual banks, their liquidity buffers, loan exposure, and interest margins, bear a significant influence on the demand for deposits.
Book Synopsis Uganda by : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Download or read book Uganda written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-09-11 with total page 67 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uganda: Selected Issues
Book Synopsis Ethiopia's New Financial Sector and Its Regulation by : Tony Addison
Download or read book Ethiopia's New Financial Sector and Its Regulation written by Tony Addison and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: War has destroyed the hopes and lives of millions of Africans. How can we help Africa's communities to recover? How can we ensure that recovery from conflict benefits the poor and not just a narrow elite? These are just some of the vital questions asked and answered in this important new book, which is one of the first to thoroughly examine recovery from conflict in Africa.
Book Synopsis Determinants of Financial Development by : Y. Huang
Download or read book Determinants of Financial Development written by Y. Huang and published by Springer. This book was released on 2010-11-24 with total page 233 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A PDF version of this book is available for free in open access via the OAPEN Library platform, www.oapen.org. This book examines the emergence of both financial markets and carbon markets, and provides an in-depth investigation on the fundamental determinants of financial development.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: by : Roberto Perotti
Download or read book Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: written by Roberto Perotti and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2007 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper surveys fiscal policy in developing countries from the point of view of long-run growth. The first section reviews existing methodologies to estimate the effects of fiscal policy shocks and of systematic fiscal policy, with time series or with cross-sectional methods, and their applicability to developing countries. The second section surveys optimal fiscal policy in developing countries, by considering the role of the intertemporal government budget, and sustainability and solvency. It also reviews the fuzzy debate on "fiscal space" and "macroeconomic space" - and the usefulness (or lack thereof) of these terms for policy analysis. The third section asks what theory tells us about the optimal cyclical behavior of fiscal policy in developing countries. It shows that it very much depends on the assumptions about the interactions between credit market imperfections at the individual, firms, or government level, and on the supply of external funds to the country. Different sets of assumptions lead to different implications about optimal cyclical behavior. The available evidence on the cyclical behavior of fiscal policy, and possible reasons for the observed prevalence of a procyclical behavior in developing countries, is also reviewed. If one agrees that fiscal policy is indeed less countercyclical than we think is optimal, the issue is how to correct the problem. One obvious question is why government do not self-insure, i.e. why they do not accumulate assets in upturns and decumulate them in downturns. This leads to the analysis of fiscal rules and stabilization funds, in the fourth section. The last section concludes with what the author considers important research and policy questions in each part.
Book Synopsis Determinants of China’s Private Consumption by : Kai Guo
Download or read book Determinants of China’s Private Consumption written by Kai Guo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-04-01 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper gauges the key determinants of China's private consumption in relation to GDP using data on the Chinese economy and evidence from other countries' experiences. The results suggest there is nothing "special" about consumption in China. Rather, the challenge is to explain why the conditioning variables-notably a low level of service sector employment, the level of financial sector development, and low real interest rates-are so different in China relative to other countries' historical experience. The results suggest, in particular, that efforts to further raise household income and the share of employment in the services sector, as well as to develop capital markets, including liberalizing interest rates and creating alternative savings instruments are likely to have the biggest impact on consumption. Other mechanisms to raise household income and mitigate household-specific risk (such as by improving the healthcare and pension systems) also have a role to play.
Book Synopsis Applied Time Series Econometrics by : Helmut Lütkepohl
Download or read book Applied Time Series Econometrics written by Helmut Lütkepohl and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2004-08-02 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Time series econometrics is a rapidly evolving field. Particularly, the cointegration revolution has had a substantial impact on applied analysis. Hence, no textbook has managed to cover the full range of methods in current use and explain how to proceed in applied domains. This gap in the literature motivates the present volume. The methods are sketched out, reminding the reader of the ideas underlying them and giving sufficient background for empirical work. The treatment can also be used as a textbook for a course on applied time series econometrics. Topics include: unit root and cointegration analysis, structural vector autoregressions, conditional heteroskedasticity and nonlinear and nonparametric time series models. Crucial to empirical work is the software that is available for analysis. New methodology is typically only gradually incorporated into existing software packages. Therefore a flexible Java interface has been created, allowing readers to replicate the applications and conduct their own analyses.
Book Synopsis Private Investment in Developing Countries by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Private Investment in Developing Countries written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1990-04-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the effects of several policy and other macro-economic variables on the ratio of private investment to GDP in developing countries. Using data for a sample of 23 developing countries over the period 1975-87, the econometric evidence indicates that the rate of private investment is positively related to the real growth rate of GDP, public sector investment, and to a lesser extent the level of per capita GDP, while it is negatively related to domestic inflation, the debt service ratio, the debt-to-GDP ratio, and high real interest rates. There is also some indication that all but the last of these variables had a greater impact before the onset of the debt crisis in 1982, while the debt-to-GDP ratio (a measure of a country’s debt overhang) has become more important since then.
Book Synopsis The Development of Local Capital Markets by : Mr.Luc Laeven
Download or read book The Development of Local Capital Markets written by Mr.Luc Laeven and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-19 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Capital markets can improve risk sharing and the efficiency with which capital is allocated to the real economy, boosting economic growth and welfare. However, despite these potential benefits, not all countries have well developed capital markets. Moreover, government-led initiatives to develop local capital markets have had mixed success. This paper reviews the literature on the benefits and costs of developing local capital markets, and describes the challenges faced in the development of such markets. The paper concludes with a set of policy recommendations emerging from this literature.
