Aggregate Analyst Forecast Errors Stock Market Liquidity And The Economy

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Aggregate Analyst Forecast Errors, Stock Market Liquidity, and the Economy

Author : Ji-Chai Lin
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 62 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Aggregate Analyst Forecast Errors, Stock Market Liquidity, and the Economy by : Ji-Chai Lin

Download or read book Aggregate Analyst Forecast Errors, Stock Market Liquidity, and the Economy written by Ji-Chai Lin and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine aggregate analyst forecast errors (AAFE) and find a systematic component, which is predictable using lagged stock market returns and macroeconomic variables. The evidence suggests that analysts do not fully take into account macroeconomic influences on individual firms' earnings in their forecasts, and that systematic biases in market expectations exist. Since informed investors may exploit over-optimistic (over-pessimistic) analyst earnings forecasts in their sells (buys), their trading affects stock prices, which induces uninformed investors to gradually revise their expectations and leave (enter) the market. As the number of uninformed investors decreases (increases), stock market liquidity deteriorates (improves). Based on this reasoning, we show that - predictable AAFE is a driving force of time-varying stock market liquidity - and also an important channel through which stock market liquidity incorporates macroeconomic information.

Aggregate Analyst Forecast Errors, Price Delay, and Business Cycle

Author : Ping-Wen Sun
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (826 download)

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Book Synopsis Aggregate Analyst Forecast Errors, Price Delay, and Business Cycle by : Ping-Wen Sun

Download or read book Aggregate Analyst Forecast Errors, Price Delay, and Business Cycle written by Ping-Wen Sun and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Market Perceptions of Efficiency and News in Analyst Forecast Errors

Author : Gia Marie Chevis
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (574 download)

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Book Synopsis Market Perceptions of Efficiency and News in Analyst Forecast Errors by : Gia Marie Chevis

Download or read book Market Perceptions of Efficiency and News in Analyst Forecast Errors written by Gia Marie Chevis and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial analysts are considered inefficient when they do not fully incorporate relevant information into their forecasts. In this dissertation, I investigate differences in the observable efficiency of analysts' earnings forecasts between firms that consistently meet or exceed analysts' earnings expectations and those that do not. I then analyze the extent to which the market incorporates this (in)efficiency into its earnings expectations. Consistent with my hypotheses, I find that analysts are relatively less efficient with respect to prior returns for firms that do not consistently meet expectations than for firms that do follow such a strategy, especially when prior returns convey bad news. However, forecast errors for firms that consistently meet expectations do not appear to be serially correlated to a greater extent than those for firms that do not consistently meet expectations. It is not clear whether the market considers such inefficiency when setting its own expectations. While the evidence suggests they may do so in the context of a shorter historical pattern of realized forecast errors, other evidence suggests they may not distinguish between predictable and surprise components of forecast error when the historical forecast error pattern is more established.

The world price of earnings opacity

Author : Uptal Bhattacharya
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9789616430258
Total Pages : 27 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (32 download)

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Book Synopsis The world price of earnings opacity by : Uptal Bhattacharya

Download or read book The world price of earnings opacity written by Uptal Bhattacharya and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Stock Market Liquidity in Chile

Author : Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475554699
Total Pages : 29 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Stock Market Liquidity in Chile by : Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques

Download or read book Stock Market Liquidity in Chile written by Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-11-16 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Chile has a large but relatively illiquid stock market. Global factors such as global risk appetite and monetary policy in advanced economies are key cyclical determinants of liquidity in Chilean equities. Evidence from a cross-section of emerging markets suggests strong protection of minority shareholders can help improve stock market liquitidity. Currently, illiquid in Chilean may have to pay 31⁄2 percent more as cost of equity. Corporate governance should be improved, namely through the adoption of a stewardship code.

NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005

Author : Jeffrey A. Frankel
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262062658
Total Pages : 421 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (62 download)

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Book Synopsis NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005 by : Jeffrey A. Frankel

Download or read book NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005 written by Jeffrey A. Frankel and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2007 with total page 421 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics brings together leading American and European economists to discuss a broad range of current issues in global macroeconomics. An international companion to the more American-focused NBER Macroeconomics Annual, the 2005 volume first explores macroeconomic issues of interest to all advanced economies, then analyzes topical questions concerning the eastward expansion of the European Monetary Union.Jeffrey A. Frankel is James W. Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Economic Growth at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government. Christopher A. Pissarides is Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics. Both are Research Associates at the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Expectations and the Structure of Share Prices

Author : John G. Cragg
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226116727
Total Pages : 185 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (261 download)

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Book Synopsis Expectations and the Structure of Share Prices by : John G. Cragg

Download or read book Expectations and the Structure of Share Prices written by John G. Cragg and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2009-05-15 with total page 185 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: John G. Cragg and Burton G. Malkiel collected detailed forecasts of professional investors concerning the growth of 175 companies and use this information to examine the impact of such forecasts on the market evaluations of the companies and to test and extend traditional models of how stock market values are determined.

Financial Markets and the Real Economy

Author : John H. Cochrane
Publisher : Now Publishers Inc
ISBN 13 : 1933019158
Total Pages : 117 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (33 download)

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Book Synopsis Financial Markets and the Real Economy by : John H. Cochrane

Download or read book Financial Markets and the Real Economy written by John H. Cochrane and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2005 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.

Rational Expectations

Author : Steven M. Sheffrin
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521479394
Total Pages : 204 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (793 download)

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Book Synopsis Rational Expectations by : Steven M. Sheffrin

Download or read book Rational Expectations written by Steven M. Sheffrin and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1996-06-13 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book develops the idea of rational expectations and surveys its use in economics today.

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015

Author : Martin Eichenbaum
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 022639574X
Total Pages : 517 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (263 download)

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Book Synopsis NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015 by : Martin Eichenbaum

Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015 written by Martin Eichenbaum and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2016-06-22 with total page 517 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This year, the NBER Macroeconomics Annual celebrates its thirtieth volume. The first two papers examine China’s macroeconomic development. “Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy” by Chun Chang, Kaiji Chen, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha outlines the key characteristics of growth and business cycles in China. “Demystifying the Chinese Housing Boom” by Hanming Fang, Quanlin Gu, Wei Xiong, and Li-An Zhou constructs a new house price index, showing that Chinese house prices have grown by ten percent per year over the past decade. The third paper, “External and Public Debt Crises” by Cristina Arellano, Andrew Atkeson, and Mark Wright, asks why there appear to be large differences across countries and subnational jurisdictions in the effect of rising public debts on economic outcomes. The fourth, “Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration” by Daron Acemoglu, Ufuk Akcigit, and William Kerr, explains how the network structure of the US economy propagates the effect of gross output productivity shocks across upstream and downstream sectors. The fifth and sixth papers investigate the usefulness of surveys of household’s beliefs for understanding economic phenomena. “Expectations and Investment,” by Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, and Andrei Shleifer, demonstrates that a chief financial officer's expectations of a firm's future earnings growth is related to both the planned and actual future investment of that firm. “Declining Desire to Work and Downward Trends in Unemployment and Participation” by Regis Barnichon and Andrew Figura shows that an increasing number of prime-age Americans who are not in the labor force report no desire to work and that this decline accelerated during the second half of the 1990s.

Handbook Of Financial Econometrics, Mathematics, Statistics, And Machine Learning (In 4 Volumes)

Author : Cheng Few Lee
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 9811202400
Total Pages : 5053 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (112 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook Of Financial Econometrics, Mathematics, Statistics, And Machine Learning (In 4 Volumes) by : Cheng Few Lee

Download or read book Handbook Of Financial Econometrics, Mathematics, Statistics, And Machine Learning (In 4 Volumes) written by Cheng Few Lee and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2020-07-30 with total page 5053 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This four-volume handbook covers important concepts and tools used in the fields of financial econometrics, mathematics, statistics, and machine learning. Econometric methods have been applied in asset pricing, corporate finance, international finance, options and futures, risk management, and in stress testing for financial institutions. This handbook discusses a variety of econometric methods, including single equation multiple regression, simultaneous equation regression, and panel data analysis, among others. It also covers statistical distributions, such as the binomial and log normal distributions, in light of their applications to portfolio theory and asset management in addition to their use in research regarding options and futures contracts.In both theory and methodology, we need to rely upon mathematics, which includes linear algebra, geometry, differential equations, Stochastic differential equation (Ito calculus), optimization, constrained optimization, and others. These forms of mathematics have been used to derive capital market line, security market line (capital asset pricing model), option pricing model, portfolio analysis, and others.In recent times, an increased importance has been given to computer technology in financial research. Different computer languages and programming techniques are important tools for empirical research in finance. Hence, simulation, machine learning, big data, and financial payments are explored in this handbook.Led by Distinguished Professor Cheng Few Lee from Rutgers University, this multi-volume work integrates theoretical, methodological, and practical issues based on his years of academic and industry experience.

Empirical Asset Pricing

Author : Wayne Ferson
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262039370
Total Pages : 497 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (62 download)

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Book Synopsis Empirical Asset Pricing by : Wayne Ferson

Download or read book Empirical Asset Pricing written by Wayne Ferson and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-03-12 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.

Have Financial Markets Become More Informative?

Author : Jennie Bai
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781457835698
Total Pages : 59 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (356 download)

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Book Synopsis Have Financial Markets Become More Informative? by : Jennie Bai

Download or read book Have Financial Markets Become More Informative? written by Jennie Bai and published by . This book was released on 2012-12-01 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The finance industry has grown, financial markets have become more liquid, and information technology allows arbitrageurs to trade faster than ever. But have market prices then become more informative? We use stock and bond prices to forecast earnings and find that the information content of market prices has not improved since 1960. We use a model with information acquisition and investment to link financial development, price informativeness, and allocational efficiency. As information costs fall, the predictable component of future earnings should rise and hence improve capital allocation and welfare. We find that this component has remained stable over the past 50 years. When we decompose price informativeness into real price efficiency and forecasting price efficiency, we find that both have remained stable.

The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Under Capital Inflows

Author : Ms.Sonali Jain-Chandra
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475579713
Total Pages : 19 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Under Capital Inflows by : Ms.Sonali Jain-Chandra

Download or read book The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Under Capital Inflows written by Ms.Sonali Jain-Chandra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-11-02 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in open economies could be impaired if interest rates are driven primarily by global factors, especially during periods of large capital inflows. The main objective of this paper is to assess whether this is true for emerging Asia’s economies. Using a dynamic factor model and a structural vector auto-regression model, we show that long-term interest rates in Asia are indeed predominantly driven by global factors. However, monetary policy transmission mechanism remains effective in the region, as it operates predominantly through short-term interest rates. Nevertheless, the monetary transmission mechanism, though effective, is somewhat weaker in Asia during the periods of surges in capital inflows.

How Novelty and Narratives Drive the Stock Market

Author : Nicholas Mangee
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1108983588
Total Pages : 451 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (89 download)

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Book Synopsis How Novelty and Narratives Drive the Stock Market by : Nicholas Mangee

Download or read book How Novelty and Narratives Drive the Stock Market written by Nicholas Mangee and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2021-10-14 with total page 451 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'Animal spirits' is a term that describes the instincts and emotions driving human behaviour in economic settings. In recent years, this concept has been discussed in relation to the emerging field of narrative economics. When unscheduled events hit the stock market, from corporate scandals and technological breakthroughs to recessions and pandemics, relationships driving returns change in unforeseeable ways. To deal with uncertainty, investors engage in narratives which simplify the complexity of real-time, non-routine change. This book assesses the novelty-narrative hypothesis for the U.S. stock market by conducting a comprehensive investigation of unscheduled events using big data textual analysis of financial news. This important contribution to the field of narrative economics finds that major macro events and associated narratives spill over into the churning stream of corporate novelty and sub-narratives, spawning different forms of unforeseeable stock market instability.

Liquidity and Asset Prices

Author : Yakov Amihud
Publisher : Now Publishers Inc
ISBN 13 : 1933019123
Total Pages : 109 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (33 download)

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Book Synopsis Liquidity and Asset Prices by : Yakov Amihud

Download or read book Liquidity and Asset Prices written by Yakov Amihud and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2006 with total page 109 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Liquidity and Asset Prices reviews the literature that studies the relationship between liquidity and asset prices. The authors review the theoretical literature that predicts how liquidity affects a security's required return and discuss the empirical connection between the two. Liquidity and Asset Prices surveys the theory of liquidity-based asset pricing followed by the empirical evidence. The theory section proceeds from basic models with exogenous holding periods to those that incorporate additional elements of risk and endogenous holding periods. The empirical section reviews the evidence on the liquidity premium for stocks, bonds, and other financial assets.

Efficiency and Anomalies in Stock Markets

Author : Wing-Keung Wong
Publisher : Mdpi AG
ISBN 13 : 9783036530802
Total Pages : 232 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (38 download)

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Book Synopsis Efficiency and Anomalies in Stock Markets by : Wing-Keung Wong

Download or read book Efficiency and Anomalies in Stock Markets written by Wing-Keung Wong and published by Mdpi AG. This book was released on 2022-02-17 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Efficient Market Hypothesis believes that it is impossible for an investor to outperform the market because all available information is already built into stock prices. However, some anomalies could persist in stock markets while some other anomalies could appear, disappear and re-appear again without any warning. A Special Issue on "Efficiency and Anomalies in Stock Markets" will be devoted to advancements in the theoretical development of market efficiency and anomaly in the Stock Market, as well as applications in Stock Market efficiency and anomalies.