Action In Uncertainty

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Adaptive Action

Author : Glenda H. Eoyang
Publisher : Stanford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0804785406
Total Pages : 265 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (47 download)

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Book Synopsis Adaptive Action by : Glenda H. Eoyang

Download or read book Adaptive Action written by Glenda H. Eoyang and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 265 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rooted in the study of chaos and complexity, Adaptive Action introduces a simple, common sense process that will guide you and your organization into reflective action. This elegant method prompts readers to engage with three deceptively simple questions: What? So what? Now what? The first leads to careful observation. The second invites you to thoughtfully consider options and implications. The third ignites effective action. Together, these questions and the tools that support them produce a dynamic and creative dance with uncertainty. The road-tested steps of adaptive action can be used to devise solutions and improve performance across multiple challenges, and they have proven to be scalable from individuals to work groups, from organizations to communities. In addition to laying out the adaptive action framework and clear protocols to support it, Glenda H. Eoyang and Royce J. Holladay introduce best practices from exemplary professionals who have used adaptive action to meet personal, professional, and political challenges in leadership, consulting, Alzheimer's treatment, evaluation, education reform, political advocacy, and cultural engagement—readying readers to employ this new toolkit to meet their own goals with a sense of ingenuity and flexibility.

Just Start

Author : Leonard A. Schlesinger
Publisher : Harvard Business Press
ISBN 13 : 1422143619
Total Pages : 224 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (221 download)

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Book Synopsis Just Start by : Leonard A. Schlesinger

Download or read book Just Start written by Leonard A. Schlesinger and published by Harvard Business Press. This book was released on 2012 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Outlines a path to success based on creativity and problem solving despite the changing economic clmate and future uncertainty.

Risk, Uncertainty and Rational Action

Author : Carlo C. Jaeger
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1134203020
Total Pages : 321 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (342 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk, Uncertainty and Rational Action by : Carlo C. Jaeger

Download or read book Risk, Uncertainty and Rational Action written by Carlo C. Jaeger and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-11-05 with total page 321 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk as we now know it is a wholly new phenomenon, the by-product of our ever more complex and powerful technologies. In business, policy making, and in everyday life, it demands a new way of looking at technological and environmental uncertainty. In this definitive volume, four of the world's leading risk researchers present a fundamental critique of the prevailing approaches to understanding and managing risk - the 'rational actor paradigm'. They show how risk studies must incorporate the competing interests, values, and rationalities of those involved and find a balance of trust and acceptable risk. Their work points to a comprehensive and significant new theory of risk and uncertainty and of the decision making process they require. The implications for social, political, and environmental theory and practice are enormous. Winner of the 2000-2002 Outstanding Publication Award of the Section on Environment and Technology of the American Sociological Association

Surfing Uncertainty

Author : Andy Clark
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN 13 : 0190217014
Total Pages : 425 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (92 download)

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Book Synopsis Surfing Uncertainty by : Andy Clark

Download or read book Surfing Uncertainty written by Andy Clark and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2016 with total page 425 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This title brings together work on embodiment, action, and the predictive mind. At the core is the vision of human minds as prediction machines - devices that constantly try to stay one step ahead of the breaking waves of sensory stimulation, by actively predicting the incoming flow. In every situation we encounter, that complex prediction machinery is already buzzing, proactively trying to anticipate the sensory barrage. The book shows in detail how this strange but potent strategy of self-anticipation ushers perception, understanding, and imagination simultaneously onto the cognitive stage.

Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty

Author : Institute of Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309290236
Total Pages : 280 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (92 download)

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Book Synopsis Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty by : Institute of Medicine

Download or read book Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty written by Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-05-20 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is one of several federal agencies responsible for protecting Americans against significant risks to human health and the environment. As part of that mission, EPA estimates the nature, magnitude, and likelihood of risks to human health and the environment; identifies the potential regulatory actions that will mitigate those risks and protect public health1 and the environment; and uses that information to decide on appropriate regulatory action. Uncertainties, both qualitative and quantitative, in the data and analyses on which these decisions are based enter into the process at each step. As a result, the informed identification and use of the uncertainties inherent in the process is an essential feature of environmental decision making. EPA requested that the Institute of Medicine (IOM) convene a committee to provide guidance to its decision makers and their partners in states and localities on approaches to managing risk in different contexts when uncertainty is present. It also sought guidance on how information on uncertainty should be presented to help risk managers make sound decisions and to increase transparency in its communications with the public about those decisions. Given that its charge is not limited to human health risk assessment and includes broad questions about managing risks and decision making, in this report the committee examines the analysis of uncertainty in those other areas in addition to human health risks. Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty explains the statement of task and summarizes the findings of the committee.

Entrepreneurial Action

Author : Andrew C. Corbett
Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1780529015
Total Pages : 326 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (85 download)

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Book Synopsis Entrepreneurial Action by : Andrew C. Corbett

Download or read book Entrepreneurial Action written by Andrew C. Corbett and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2012-07-17 with total page 326 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volume 14 addresses the central issue of entrepreneurial action: while many factors are important to the phenomenon of entrepreneurship, entrepreneurship does not happen until someone takes action!

Action in Uncertainty

Author : Jean-Charles Pomerol
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1394229569
Total Pages : 180 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (942 download)

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Book Synopsis Action in Uncertainty by : Jean-Charles Pomerol

Download or read book Action in Uncertainty written by Jean-Charles Pomerol and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2023-07-31 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite uncertainty, people are born to act. Faced with environmental aggression and upheaval, inaction is more stressful than action. What choices, strategies or methods need to be implemented so that action is as effective as possible in terms of the objectives to be achieved? We should not delude ourselves about the term "good decision", which does not have much meaning when we act in an uncertain environment and when we know the weakness of forecasts. However, we must know how to act and be capable of taking the most appropriate action. Action in Uncertainty is a real guide to taking effective action when nothing is certain. According to the different types of uncertainty, what are the respective good uses of expertise and intuition? How do we motivate teams and avoid cognitive bias and manipulation? These themes are dealt with in clear and accessible terms to help decision-makers make the right choices in a world that is more uncertain than ever.

Moral Uncertainty

Author : William MacAskill
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0198722273
Total Pages : 237 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (987 download)

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Book Synopsis Moral Uncertainty by : William MacAskill

Download or read book Moral Uncertainty written by William MacAskill and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2020 with total page 237 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: About the bookToby Ord try to fill this gap. They argue that there are distinctive norms that govern how one ought to make decisions and defend an information-sensitive account of how to make such decisions. They do so by developing an analogy between moral uncertainty and social choice, noting that different moral views provide different amounts of information regarding our reasons for action, and arguing that the correct account of decision-making under moral uncertainty must be sensitive to that. Moral Uncertainty also tackles the problem of how to make intertheoretic comparisons, and addresses the implications of their view for metaethics and practical ethics. Very often we are uncertain about what we ought, morally, to do. We do not know how to weigh the interests of animals against humans, how strong our duties are to improve the lives of distant strangers, or how to think about the ethics of bringing new people into existence. But we still need to act. So how should we make decisions in the face of such uncertainty? Though economists and philosophers have extensively studied the issue of decision-making in the face of uncertainty about matters of fact, the question of decision-making given fundamental moral uncertainty has been neglected. In Moral Uncertainty, philosophers William MacAskill, Krister Bykvist, and Toby Ord try to fill this gap. They argue that there are distinctive norms that govern how one ought to make decisions and defend an information-sensitive account of how to make such decisions. They do so by developing an analogy between moral uncertainty and social choice, noting that different moral views provide different amounts of information regarding our reasons for action, and arguing that the correct account of decision-making under moral uncertainty must be sensitive to that. Moral Uncertainty also tackles the problem of how to make intertheoretic comparisons, and addresses the implications of their view for metaethics and practical ethics.

Completing the Forecast

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309180538
Total Pages : 124 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Completing the Forecast by : National Research Council

Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.

Success in Africa

Author : Jonathan Berman
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1351860607
Total Pages : 157 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis Success in Africa by : Jonathan Berman

Download or read book Success in Africa written by Jonathan Berman and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-10-21 with total page 157 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In an era of slowing growth, Africa is home to a trillion-dollar, resource-rich economy, and six of the ten fastest growing markets in the world. Success in Africa introduces the ambitious CEOs who are building the continent. These stories of growth, technology, and tradition bring life to one of the most important stories of the global economy: a successful Africa. The CEOs of General Electric, The Coca Cola Company, and Tullow Oil join Africa's leading CEOs to share insights on what wins in this fast-growth market. With twenty years of experience in frontier markets, including a decade working in Africa, author Jonathan Berman engages with top business leaders on the vast opportunities and challenges of the continent. Success in Africa pushes past the headlines on Africa's growth to answer the questions often asked by companies and investors: Who do I work with there and what drives them? How do I deal with government? What about war, disease, and poverty? What about China? How do I win? Success in Africa provides on-the-ground perspective, personal stories, and insight that Robert Rubin calls "essential reading for all who are interested in Africa for reasons of business, investment, policy, or curiosity."

The Uncertainty Mindset

Author : Vaughn Tan
Publisher : Columbia University Press
ISBN 13 : 0231551878
Total Pages : 296 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (315 download)

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Book Synopsis The Uncertainty Mindset by : Vaughn Tan

Download or read book The Uncertainty Mindset written by Vaughn Tan and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2020-07-28 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Innovation is how businesses stay ahead of the competition and adapt to market conditions that change in unpredictable and uncertain ways. In the first decade of the twenty-first century, high-end cuisine underwent a profound transformation. Once an industry that prioritized consistency and reliability, it turned into one where constant change was a competitive necessity. A top restaurant’s reputation and success have become so closely bound up with its ability to innovate that a new organizational form, the culinary research and development team, has emerged. The best of these R&D teams continually expand the frontiers of food—they invent a constant stream of new dishes, new cooking processes and methods, and even new ways of experiencing food. How do they achieve this nonstop novelty? And what can culinary research and development teach us about how organizations innovate? Vaughn Tan opens up the black box of elite culinary R&D to provide essential insights. Drawing on years of unprecedented access to the best and most influential culinary R&D teams in the world, he reveals how they exemplify what he calls the uncertainty mindset. Such a mindset intentionally incorporates uncertainty into organization design rather than simply trying to reduce risk. It changes how organizations hire, set goals, and motivate team members and leads organizations to work in highly unconventional ways. A revelatory look at the R&D kitchen, The Uncertainty Mindset upends conventional wisdom about how to organize for innovation and offers practical insights for businesses trying to become innovative and adaptable.

Uncertainty

Author : Jonathan Fields
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 1591845661
Total Pages : 241 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (918 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty by : Jonathan Fields

Download or read book Uncertainty written by Jonathan Fields and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2012-11-06 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Jonathan Fields knows the risks-and potential power-of uncertainty. He gave up a six-figure income as a lawyer to make $12 an hour as a personal trainer. Then, married with a 3-month old baby, he signed a lease to launch a yoga center in the heart of New York City. . . the day before 9/11. But he survived, and along the way he developed a fresh approach to transforming uncertainty, risk of loss, and exposure to judgment into catalysts for innovation, creation, and achievement. In business, art, and life, creating on a world-class level demands bold action and leaps of faith in the face of great uncertainty. But that uncertainty can lead to fear, anxiety, paralysis, and destruction. It can gut creativity and stifle innovation. It can keep you from taking the risks necessary to do great work and craft a deeply-rewarding life. And it can bring companies that rely on innovation grinding to a halt. That is, unless you know how to use it to your advantage. Fields draws on leading-edge technology, cognitive science, and ancient awareness-focusing techniques in a fresh, practical, nondogmatic way. His approach enables creativity and productivity on an entirely different level and can turn the once-tortuous journey into a more enjoyable quest.

Decisions, Uncertainty, and the Brain

Author : Paul W. Glimcher
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262572279
Total Pages : 404 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (722 download)

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Book Synopsis Decisions, Uncertainty, and the Brain by : Paul W. Glimcher

Download or read book Decisions, Uncertainty, and the Brain written by Paul W. Glimcher and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2004-09-17 with total page 404 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this provocative book, Paul Glimcher argues that economic theory may provide an alternative to the classical Cartesian model of the brain and behavior. Glimcher argues that Cartesian dualism operates from the false premise that the reflex is able to describe behavior in the real world that animals inhabit. A mathematically rich cognitive theory, he claims, could solve the most difficult problems that any environment could present, eliminating the need for dualism by eliminating the need for a reflex theory. Such a mathematically rigorous description of the neural processes that connect sensation and action, he explains, will have its roots in microeconomic theory. Economic theory allows physiologists to define both the optimal course of action that an animal might select and a mathematical route by which that optimal solution can be derived. Glimcher outlines what an economics-based cognitive model might look like and how one would begin to test it empirically. Along the way, he presents a fascinating history of neuroscience. He also discusses related questions about determinism, free will, and the stochastic nature of complex behavior.

Understanding Uncertainty

Author : Dennis V. Lindley
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470055472
Total Pages : 268 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Understanding Uncertainty by : Dennis V. Lindley

Download or read book Understanding Uncertainty written by Dennis V. Lindley and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-08-28 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A lively and informal introduction to the role of uncertainty and probability in people's lives from an everyday perspective From television game shows and gambling techniques to weather forecasting and the financial markets, virtually every aspect of modern life involves situations in which the outcomes are uncertain and of varying qualities. But as noted statistician Dennis Lindley writes in this distinctive text, "We want you to face up to uncertainty, not hide it away under false concepts, but to understand it and, moreover, to use the recent discoveries so that you can act in the face of uncertainty more sensibly than would have been possible without the skill." Accessibly written at an elementary level, this outstanding text examines uncertainty in various everyday situations and introduces readers to three rules--craftily laid out in the book--that prove uncertainty can be handled with as much confidence as ordinary logic. Combining a concept of utility with probability, the book insightfully demonstrates how uncertainty can be measured and used in everyday life, especially in decision-making and science. With a focus on understanding and using probability calculations, Understanding Uncertainty demystifies probability and: * Explains in straightforward detail the logic of uncertainty, its truths, and its falsehoods * Explores what has been learned in the twentieth century about uncertainty * Provides a logical, sensible method for acting in the face of uncertainty * Presents vignettes of great discoveries made in the twentieth century * Shows readers how to discern if another person--whether a lawyer, politician, scientist, or journalist--is talking sense, posing the right questions, or obtaining sound answers Requiring only a basic understanding of mathematical concepts and operations, Understanding Uncertainty is useful as a text for all students who have probability or statistics as part of their course, even at the most introductory level.

Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 030904894X
Total Pages : 668 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment by : National Research Council

Download or read book Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1994-01-01 with total page 668 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The public depends on competent risk assessment from the federal government and the scientific community to grapple with the threat of pollution. When risk reports turn out to be overblownâ€"or when risks are overlookedâ€"public skepticism abounds. This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. With a wealth of detailed information, pertinent examples, and revealing analysis, the volume explores the "default option" and other basic concepts. It offers two views of EPA operations: The first examines how EPA currently assesses exposure to hazardous air pollutants, evaluates the toxicity of a substance, and characterizes the risk to the public. The second, more holistic, view explores how EPA can improve in several critical areas of risk assessment by focusing on cross-cutting themes and incorporating more scientific judgment. This comprehensive volume will be important to the EPA and other agencies, risk managers, environmental advocates, scientists, faculty, students, and concerned individuals.

The Politics of Uncertainty

Author : Ian Scoones
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1000163407
Total Pages : 280 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (1 download)

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Book Synopsis The Politics of Uncertainty by : Ian Scoones

Download or read book The Politics of Uncertainty written by Ian Scoones and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-07-14 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why is uncertainty so important to politics today? To explore the underlying reasons, issues and challenges, this book’s chapters address finance and banking, insurance, technology regulation and critical infrastructures, as well as climate change, infectious disease responses, natural disasters, migration, crime and security and spirituality and religion. The book argues that uncertainties must be understood as complex constructions of knowledge, materiality, experience, embodiment and practice. Examining in particular how uncertainties are experienced in contexts of marginalisation and precarity, this book shows how sustainability and development are not just technical issues, but depend deeply on political values and choices. What burgeoning uncertainties require lies less in escalating efforts at control, but more in a new – more collective, mutualistic and convivial – politics of responsibility and care. If hopes of much-needed progressive transformation are to be realised, then currently blinkered understandings of uncertainty need to be met with renewed democratic struggle. Written in an accessible style and illustrated by multiple case studies from across the world, this book will appeal to a wide cross-disciplinary audience in fields ranging from economics to law to science studies to sociology to anthropology and geography, as well as professionals working in risk management, disaster risk reduction, emergencies and wider public policy fields.

The Gita for a Global World

Author : Rohit Chopra
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9789357768009
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (68 download)

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Book Synopsis The Gita for a Global World by : Rohit Chopra

Download or read book The Gita for a Global World written by Rohit Chopra and published by . This book was released on 2023-09-12 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: COMBINING PHILOSOPHICAL UNDERSTANDING AND POLITICAL INSIGHT, ROHIT CHOPRA MAKES A STRONG CASE FOR THE RELEVANCE OF THE GITA IN THE MODERN, GLOBAL WORLD. The Gita in a Global World examines a very particular claim: can the ancient text that is the Gita offer a framework to negotiate the ethical challenges of capitalist modernity? We live in a world marked by greater existential precarity, and increased political and social turbulence and violence. Could the Gita, for all its philosophical abstraction, help us navigate this space? What can it tell us about global warming and violence, inequality and suffering, pandemics and the savage oppression of vulnerable groups? Rohit Chopra's masterful examination of the Gita interrogates the relevance of its ideas and sees in its articulation of the philosophy of universal being a more just and inclusive idea of human belonging. Combining philosophical discussion, meticulous research and sharp political insight, this book does what that ancient text has done for years-illuminate and provoke while asking each of us to choose how we will act to meet the challenges of the present and future. About the Author Rohit Chopra is Professor of Communication at Santa Clara University. His research centres on global media and identity, digital media, and the relationship between media, memory and violence. He is the author of The Virtual Hindu Rashtra: Saffron Nationalism and New Media (HarperCollins, 2019) and Technology and Nationalism in India: Cultural Negotiations from Colonialism to Cyberspace (Cambria, 2008), and co-editor of Global Media, Culture, and Identity: Theory, Cases, and Approaches (Routledge, 2011). Rohit also writes extensively in a journalistic capacity on media, politics and culture in global contexts. An expert on the role of social media in fomenting sectarian violence, he works with non-profits, think tanks, and technology and media firms on developing strategies to combat the negative effects of social media. Rohit is also the co-founder and co-host of the India Explained podcast, a conversation on matters related to India (www.soundcloud.com/indiaexplained).