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Author : Xiaogu Zhang
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 78 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book A Variance Decomposition Approach to the Prediction of the Seasonal Mean Circulation written by Xiaogu Zhang and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 78 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Daniel S. Wilks
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0128165278
Total Pages : 842 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (281 download)
Download or read book Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences written by Daniel S. Wilks and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2019-06-09 with total page 842 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, Fourth Edition, continues the tradition of trying to meet the needs of students, researchers and operational practitioners. This updated edition not only includes expanded sections built upon the strengths of the prior edition, but also provides new content where there have been advances in the field, including Bayesian analysis, forecast verification and a new chapter dedicated to ensemble forecasting. - Provides a strong, yet concise, introduction to applied statistics that is specific to atmospheric science - Contains revised and expanded sections on nonparametric tests, test multiplicity and quality uncertainty descriptors - Includes new sections on ANOVA, quantile regression, the lasso and other regularization methods, regression trees, changepoint detection, ensemble forecasting and exponential smoothing
Author : J. Shukla
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 30 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book What are the Modeling Requirements for Seamless Prediction of Weather and Climate from Days to Decades? written by J. Shukla and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Andrew Robertson
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 012811715X
Total Pages : 588 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (281 download)
Download or read book Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction written by Andrew Robertson and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-10-19 with total page 588 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field. - Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications - Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field - Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making - Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages
Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309388805
Total Pages : 351 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (93 download)
Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.
Author : Rob J Hyndman
Publisher : OTexts
ISBN 13 : 0987507117
Total Pages : 380 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (875 download)
Download or read book Forecasting: principles and practice written by Rob J Hyndman and published by OTexts. This book was released on 2018-05-08 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 492 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Meteorological and Geoastrophysical Abstracts written by and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 492 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : David G. Andrews
Publisher : Academic Press
ISBN 13 : 0080954677
Total Pages : 502 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (89 download)
Download or read book Middle Atmosphere Dynamics written by David G. Andrews and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2016-07-21 with total page 502 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For advanced undergraduate and beginning graduate students in atmospheric, oceanic, and climate science, Atmosphere, Ocean and Climate Dynamics is an introductory textbook on the circulations of the atmosphere and ocean and their interaction, with an emphasis on global scales. It will give students a good grasp of what the atmosphere and oceans look like on the large-scale and why they look that way. The role of the oceans in climate and paleoclimate is also discussed. The combination of observations, theory and accompanying illustrative laboratory experiments sets this text apart by making it accessible to students with no prior training in meteorology or oceanography. * Written at a mathematical level that is appealing for undergraduates and beginning graduate students * Provides a useful educational tool through a combination of observations and laboratory demonstrations which can be viewed over the web * Contains instructions on how to reproduce the simple but informative laboratory experiments * Includes copious problems (with sample answers) to help students learn the material.
Author : Estela Bee Dagum
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319318225
Total Pages : 293 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (193 download)
Download or read book Seasonal Adjustment Methods and Real Time Trend-Cycle Estimation written by Estela Bee Dagum and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-06-20 with total page 293 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores widely used seasonal adjustment methods and recent developments in real time trend-cycle estimation. It discusses in detail the properties and limitations of X12ARIMA, TRAMO-SEATS and STAMP - the main seasonal adjustment methods used by statistical agencies. Several real-world cases illustrate each method and real data examples can be followed throughout the text. The trend-cycle estimation is presented using nonparametric techniques based on moving averages, linear filters and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, taking recent advances into account. The book provides a systematical treatment of results that to date have been scattered throughout the literature. Seasonal adjustment and real time trend-cycle prediction play an essential part at all levels of activity in modern economies. They are used by governments to counteract cyclical recessions, by central banks to control inflation, by decision makers for better modeling and planning and by hospitals, manufacturers, builders, transportation, and consumers in general to decide on appropriate action. This book appeals to practitioners in government institutions, finance and business, macroeconomists, and other professionals who use economic data as well as academic researchers in time series analysis, seasonal adjustment methods, filtering and signal extraction. It is also useful for graduate and final-year undergraduate courses in econometrics and time series with a good understanding of linear regression and matrix algebra, as well as ARIMA modelling.
Author : Alberto Troccoli
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1402069928
Total Pages : 462 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)
Download or read book Seasonal Climate: Forecasting and Managing Risk written by Alberto Troccoli and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-01-29 with total page 462 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally formed around a set of lectures presented at a NATO Advanced Study Institute (ASI), this book has grown to become organised and presented rather more as a textbook than as a standard "collection of proceedings". This therefore is the first unified reference ‘textbook’ in seasonal to interannual climate predictions and their practical uses. Written by some of the world’s leading experts, the book covers a rapidly-developing science of prime social concern.
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 1436 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (62 download)
Download or read book Meetings Abstracts, January-August 2006 written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 1436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 030915183X
Total Pages : 192 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-10-08 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.
Author : Michael J. McPhaden
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119548128
Total Pages : 528 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (195 download)
Download or read book El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate written by Michael J. McPhaden and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-11-24 with total page 528 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Comprehensive and up-to-date information on Earth’s most dominant year-to-year climate variation The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean has major worldwide social and economic consequences through its global scale effects on atmospheric and oceanic circulation, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and other natural systems. Ongoing climate change is projected to significantly alter ENSO's dynamics and impacts. El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate presents the latest theories, models, and observations, and explores the challenges of forecasting ENSO as the climate continues to change. Volume highlights include: Historical background on ENSO and its societal consequences Review of key El Niño (ENSO warm phase) and La Niña (ENSO cold phase) characteristics Mathematical description of the underlying physical processes that generate ENSO variations Conceptual framework for understanding ENSO changes on decadal and longer time scales, including the response to greenhouse gas forcing ENSO impacts on extreme ocean, weather, and climate events, including tropical cyclones, and how ENSO affects fisheries and the global carbon cycle Advances in modeling, paleo-reconstructions, and operational climate forecasting Future projections of ENSO and its impacts Factors influencing ENSO events, such as inter-basin climate interactions and volcanic eruptions The American Geophysical Union promotes discovery in Earth and space science for the benefit of humanity. Its publications disseminate scientific knowledge and provide resources for researchers, students, and professionals. Find out more about this book from this Q&A with the editors.
Author : Kuo Nan Liou
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 9814470724
Total Pages : 497 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (144 download)
Download or read book Recent Progress In Atmospheric Sciences: Applications To The Asia-pacific Region written by Kuo Nan Liou and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2008-12-22 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contains 22 peer-reviewed articles that cover a spectrum of contemporary subjects relevant to atmospheric sciences, with specific applications to the Asia-Pacific region. The majority of these papers consist of a review of a scientific sub-field in atmospheric sciences, while some contain original contributions. All of the accepted papers were subject to scientific reviews and revisions.The book is divided into 2 traditional fields in atmospheric sciences: atmospheric dynamics and meteorology; and atmospheric physics and chemistry. The authors of these papers are distinguished alumni of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the National Taiwan University, residing in the USA and Taiwan. This book is dedicated to the 50th anniversary of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences that occurred in 2004.Papers in atmospheric dynamics and meteorology cover the following subjects: El Niño/Southern Oscillation, air/sea interactions, convection in the tropics, meiyu frontal systems, tropical cyclones/typhoons, data assimilations, and mesoscale modeling. In atmospheric physics and chemistry, subjects range from aerosols/clouds interactions, heat budgets in the context of air/sea interactions, atmospheric radiative transfer, remote sensing of the oceans, Asian dust outbreaks and clouds, reviews of cloud microphysics and urban ozone formations, to a satellite GPS system for typhoon studies and weather predictions.
Author : Rob Hyndman
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3540719180
Total Pages : 362 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (47 download)
Download or read book Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing written by Rob Hyndman and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-06-19 with total page 362 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Exponential smoothing methods have been around since the 1950s, and are still the most popular forecasting methods used in business and industry. However, a modeling framework incorporating stochastic models, likelihood calculation, prediction intervals and procedures for model selection, was not developed until recently. This book brings together all of the important new results on the state space framework for exponential smoothing. It will be of interest to people wanting to apply the methods in their own area of interest as well as for researchers wanting to take the ideas in new directions. Part 1 provides an introduction to exponential smoothing and the underlying models. The essential details are given in Part 2, which also provide links to the most important papers in the literature. More advanced topics are covered in Part 3, including the mathematical properties of the models and extensions of the models for specific problems. Applications to particular domains are discussed in Part 4.
Author : Yunyun Liu
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0128165316
Total Pages : 259 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (281 download)
Download or read book The Asian Summer Monsoon written by Yunyun Liu and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2019-07-13 with total page 259 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Asian Summer Monsoon: Characteristics, Variability, Teleconnections and Projection focuses on the connections between the Indian Summer and East Asian Summer Monsoons, also including the South China Sea Summer Monsoon. While these systems have profound differences, their interactions have significant impacts on the climatic regimes in the region and throughout the world. In summer, the ASM engine pumps moisture transported across thousands of miles from the Indian and Pacific Oceans to the monsoon regions, producing heavy rains over south and east Asia and its adjacent marginal seas. This book reviews the different subsystems and their impact, providing guidance to enhance prediction models. - Synthesizes the connections between the East Asian Summer Monsoon, the Indian Summer Monsoon and the Asian Summer Monsoon system - Includes subsections on holistic characteristics, sub-seasonal and interannual variability, teleconnection patterns, and projections of future change - Connects current theory and practice on Asian Monsoon forecasting, providing researchers with new skills and information to use in climate and weather forecasting
Author : Peter J. Brockwell
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1475725264
Total Pages : 429 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (757 download)
Download or read book Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting written by Peter J. Brockwell and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-14 with total page 429 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Some of the key mathematical results are stated without proof in order to make the underlying theory acccessible to a wider audience. The book assumes a knowledge only of basic calculus, matrix algebra, and elementary statistics. The emphasis is on methods and the analysis of data sets. The logic and tools of model-building for stationary and non-stationary time series are developed in detail and numerous exercises, many of which make use of the included computer package, provide the reader with ample opportunity to develop skills in this area. The core of the book covers stationary processes, ARMA and ARIMA processes, multivariate time series and state-space models, with an optional chapter on spectral analysis. Additional topics include harmonic regression, the Burg and Hannan-Rissanen algorithms, unit roots, regression with ARMA errors, structural models, the EM algorithm, generalized state-space models with applications to time series of count data, exponential smoothing, the Holt-Winters and ARAR forecasting algorithms, transfer function models and intervention analysis. Brief introducitons are also given to cointegration and to non-linear, continuous-time and long-memory models. The time series package included in the back of the book is a slightly modified version of the package ITSM, published separately as ITSM for Windows, by Springer-Verlag, 1994. It does not handle such large data sets as ITSM for Windows, but like the latter, runs on IBM-PC compatible computers under either DOS or Windows (version 3.1 or later). The programs are all menu-driven so that the reader can immediately apply the techniques in the book to time series data, with a minimal investment of time in the computational and algorithmic aspects of the analysis.
