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A Time Series Analysis Of Consumer Confidence Consumer Sentiment And Personal Income As Predictors Of Consumer Spending
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Book Synopsis A Time Series Analysis of Consumer Confidence, Consumer Sentiment, and Personal Income as Predictors of Consumer Spending by : John Anthony Anella
Download or read book A Time Series Analysis of Consumer Confidence, Consumer Sentiment, and Personal Income as Predictors of Consumer Spending written by John Anthony Anella and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Does Consumer Sentiment Affect Household Spending? If So, Why? by : Christopher D. Carroll
Download or read book Does Consumer Sentiment Affect Household Spending? If So, Why? written by Christopher D. Carroll and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Consumer Sentiment and the Stock Market by : Maria Ward Otoo
Download or read book Consumer Sentiment and the Stock Market written by Maria Ward Otoo and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence (sentiment)? by : Jeff Dominitz
Download or read book How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence (sentiment)? written by Jeff Dominitz and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) and other indices of consumer confidence are prominent in public discourse on the economy but have little presence in modern economic research. The sparsity of modern research follows an earlier period when economists scrutinized in some depth the methods and data used to produce consumer confidence indices. The literature to date has focused on the predictive power of the survey data used to form the indices; there has been very little study of their micro foundations. This paper analyzes the responses to eight expectations questions that have appeared on the Michigan Survey of Consumers in the period June 2002 through May 2003. Four questions elicit micro and macroeconomic expectations in the traditional qualitative manner; two are components of the ICS. Four questions use a percent chance' format to elicit subjective probabilities of micro and macroeconomic events; versions of these questions have previously appeared in the Survey of Economic Expectations.
Book Synopsis The Measurement of Consumer Expectations Using Survey Data by : Martha A. Starr
Download or read book The Measurement of Consumer Expectations Using Survey Data written by Martha A. Starr and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Forecasting Consumption by : Kajal Lahiri
Download or read book Forecasting Consumption written by Kajal Lahiri and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the role of consumer confidence in forecasting real personal consumption expenditure, and contribute to the extant literature in three substantive ways: First, we reexamine existing empirical models of consumption and consumer confidence not only at the quarterly frequency, but using monthly data as well. Second, we employ real-time data in addition to commonly used revised vintages. Third, we investigate the role of consumer confidence in a rich information context. We produce forecasts of consumption expenditures with and without consumer confidence measures using a dynamic factor model and a large, real-time, jagged-edge data set. In a robust way, we establish the important role of confidence surveys in improving the accuracy of consumption forecasts, manifesting primarily through the services component. During the recession of 2007-09, sentiment is found to have a more pervasive effect on all components of aggregate consumption - durables, non-durables and services.
Book Synopsis Do Consumer Confidence Indexes Help Forecast Consumer Spending in Real Time? by : Dean Croushore
Download or read book Do Consumer Confidence Indexes Help Forecast Consumer Spending in Real Time? written by Dean Croushore and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Could a researcher or policy analyst use data reported from surveys of consumer.
Book Synopsis Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Expenditure? A Sentiment Index Horse Race by : Jason Bram
Download or read book Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Expenditure? A Sentiment Index Horse Race written by Jason Bram and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This article is the first formal investigation of consumer attitudes that compares the forecasting power of the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index. The authors find that measures available from the Conference Board have both economically and statistically significant explanatory power for several categories of consumer spending. By contrast, measures available from the University of Michigan generally exhibit weaker forecasting power for most categories of spending. As part of their analysis, the authors examine the ways in which the surveys underlying these measures differ and test whether certain types of survey questions are particularly important for predicting consumer spending.
Book Synopsis Measures of Consumer Confidence by :
Download or read book Measures of Consumer Confidence written by and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The economic outlook is of considerable importance to policymakers. Any information that might prove helpful in forecasting the economy is thus of interest. Two economic indicators that get a lot of attention, because of their presumed value as leading indicators of economic conditions, attempt to measure the relative optimism of consumers about current economic conditions and prospects. One of these indicators is the index of consumer sentiment published by the University of Michigan Survey Research Center, and the other is the consumer confidence index published by the Conference Board. Both indexes are based on data collected in a monthly survey. The Michigan survey contacts 500 households by telephone. The Conference Board contacts 5,000 households by mail, of which about 3,500 typically respond. In both surveys five questions are asked, two of which have to do with current economic conditions and three of which have to do with expectations for the economic outlook. Each of the survey questions is multiple choice. While, intuitively, it makes sense that consumer attitudes would affect spending decisions, there remains uncertainty regarding the theoretical connection between the attitude indexes and spending. That makes it difficult to interpret individual observations, and short-run variations in the indexes. These indicators are not, apparently, insignificant. On their own and in concert with other economic variables they have been shown to contribute to forecasts of future consumer spending and hence of overall economic growth. But their contribution may be somewhat more modest than the attention they get would suggest. This report explains how these two indexes measuring consumer attitudes are calculated, the theoretical connection between consumer attitudes and economic growth, and examines their significance as indicators of the economic outlook. This report will be updated as economic developments warrant.
Book Synopsis The Predictive Value of Consumer Buying Intentions by : Theodore George Flechsig
Download or read book The Predictive Value of Consumer Buying Intentions written by Theodore George Flechsig and published by . This book was released on 1963 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Measures of Consumer Confidence by : Brian Cashell
Download or read book Measures of Consumer Confidence written by Brian Cashell and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 9 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Do Consumer Confidence Indexes Help Forecast Consumer Spending in Real Time? by : Dean Croushore
Download or read book Do Consumer Confidence Indexes Help Forecast Consumer Spending in Real Time? written by Dean Croushore and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Spending by : Sarah Gelper
Download or read book Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Spending written by Sarah Gelper and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is often believed that the consumer sentiment index has predictive power for future consumption levels. While Granger causality tests have already been used to test for this, no attempt has been made yet to quantify the predictive power of the consumer sentiment index over different time horizons. In this paper, we decompose the Granger causality at different time lags, by looking at a sequence of nested prediction models. Since the consumer sentiment index turns out to be cointegrated with real consumption, we resort to Error Correcting Models. Four consumption series are studied, namely total real consumption, real consumption of durables, nondurables and services. Among other findings, we show that the consumer sentiment index Granger causes future consumption with an average time lag of four to five months. Furthermore, t is found that the consumer sentiment index has more incremental predictive power for consumption of services than for consumption of durables or nondurables, and that the index is not only useful as a predictor at the very short term, but keeps predictive power at larger time horizons.
Book Synopsis Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Spending: Decomposing the Granger Causal Relationship in the Time Domain by : Sarah Gelper
Download or read book Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Spending: Decomposing the Granger Causal Relationship in the Time Domain written by Sarah Gelper and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: It is often believed that the consumer sentiment index has predictive power for future consumption levels. While Granger causality tests have already been used to test for this, no attempt has been made yet to quantify the predictive power of the consumer sentiment index over different time horizons. In this paper, we decompose the Granger causality at different time lags, by looking at a sequence of nested prediction models. Since the consumer sentiment index turns out to be cointegrated with real consumption, we resort to Error Correcting Models. Four consumption series are studied, namely total real consumption, real consumption of durables, nondurables and services. Among other findings, we show that the consumer sentiment index Granger causes future consumption with an average time lag of four to five months. Furthermore, it is found that the consumer sentiment index has more incremental predictive power for consumption of services than for consumption of durables or nondurabl
Download or read book Consumer Confidence Survey written by and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 486 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Consumer Sentiment and Buying Intentions Revisited by : Wagner A. Kamakura
Download or read book Consumer Sentiment and Buying Intentions Revisited written by Wagner A. Kamakura and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This article re-examines the controversial issue of the usefulness of attitudinal indices as leading indicators of consumer durable expenditures. First a cross-validation is performed using the two most popular indices of consumer sentiment (Survey Research Center and Conference Board). The usefulness of these indices is then tested using a more recent methodology for time-series analysis.
Book Synopsis Consumer Sentiment by : Nicholas S. Souleles
Download or read book Consumer Sentiment written by Nicholas S. Souleles and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
