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A Structural Vector Autoregression Model Of Monetary Policy In Australia
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Book Synopsis A Structural Vector Autoregression Model of Monetary Policy in Australia by : Andrea Brischetto
Download or read book A Structural Vector Autoregression Model of Monetary Policy in Australia written by Andrea Brischetto and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the effects of monetary policy in Australia using a small structural vector autoregression model. The model we use is a modification of the small open economy model developed for the G6 economies (the G7 less the United States) by Kim and Roubini (1999). The success of the Kim and Roubini model across these economies makes it a natural starting point to analyse monetary policy in Australia. Consistent with Kim and Roubini, we find no evidence of the price or exchange rate puzzles identified in the literature. We demonstrate that, in the Australian context, modelling the interdependence between the domestic interest rate, the foreign interest rate and the nominal exchange rate is critical to resolving these puzzles. Further, we demonstrate that the Kim and Roubini model can be further usefully refined when applied to the Australian data. We use the model to perform various monetary policy experiments and the results of these experiments accord well with both the existing SVAR literature and previous empirical work for Australia. We find that monetary policy shocks have a delayed and gradual effect on the price level and a small temporary effect on output. We also use the model to examine the effects of shocks to the Australian economy and the role of monetary policy in response to these shocks. Generally, we find that monetary policy has served to dampen both output and price fluctuations. A qualifying aspect of our results is the model's instability, for example, around the most recent change in the implementation of monetary policy in Australia.
Book Synopsis Estimating the Effects of Monetary Policy in Australia Using Sign-restricted Structural Vector Autoregressions by : Matthew Read
Download or read book Estimating the Effects of Monetary Policy in Australia Using Sign-restricted Structural Vector Autoregressions written by Matthew Read and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Towards a Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy by : Mardi Dungey
Download or read book Towards a Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy written by Mardi Dungey and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis An SVAR Analysis of Monetary Policy Dynamics and Housing Market Responses in Australia by : I. K. M. Mokhtarul Wadud
Download or read book An SVAR Analysis of Monetary Policy Dynamics and Housing Market Responses in Australia written by I. K. M. Mokhtarul Wadud and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the impact of monetary policy and a range of sector-specific and macroeconomic shocks on the Australian housing market using quarterly data for a period of 1974-2008. The paper develops a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model based on contemporaneous restrictions to analyse the dynamics of these shocks. The results indicate that supply of new houses in Australia rises with higher real house prices; and that house prices rise and fall with higher inflation rate and interest rate, respectively. Dynamics of the impulse responses reveal significant effect of monetary policy on new house constructions, real house prices, material costs and inflation. Results also suggest that housing output, real house prices and interest rates respond significantly to shocks to housing supply, housing demand and to a number of other variables. These results are expected to shed some lights on the current policy environment pertaining to the Australian housing sector.
Book Synopsis Nominal Exchange Rate Neutrality for Australia by : Christopher Bradfield Harbinger
Download or read book Nominal Exchange Rate Neutrality for Australia written by Christopher Bradfield Harbinger and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 218 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study is concerned primarily with the impact of the nominal exchange rate on the Australian economy. In particular this study examines whether the nominal exchange rate of the Australian dollar is neutral with regards to real gross domestic product.
Book Synopsis Essays on Economic and Policy Time Variations in Small Open Economies by : Jamie Lee Cross
Download or read book Essays on Economic and Policy Time Variations in Small Open Economies written by Jamie Lee Cross and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis consists of four research papers. The first three papers explore the prevalence and significance of time variation within the Australian economy. The final paper is distinct in that it analyzes the effects of economic and policy uncertainty on the Canadian economy. In the first paper (Chapter 2), I address recent concerns that Australian monetary policy is currently less effective than in the past. To investigate this hypothesis, I estimate a time varying structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. The main result is that monetary policy effectiveness has increased over the sample period, with little evidence to support the claim of a weaker transmission mechanism since the 2007/08 global financial crisis. In the second paper (Chapter 3 - joint with Aubrey Poon), we build on the results in the first paper by investigating the forecasting properties of Gaussian and Student's-t distributed classes of time varying autoregressive models when predicting Australian macroeconomic variables. The main result is that time varying parameters, stochastic volatility and the Student's-t error distribution are all important modeling features of the data. More specifically, a VAR model with the proposed features provides the best inflation and interest rate forecasts over the entire sample. Surprisingly, a simple rolling window autoregressive model provides the best real GDP growth forecasts. In the third paper (Chapter 4 - joint with Aubrey Poon), we build on the results in the first two papers, by quantifying the impacts of international shocks in driving Australian business cycle fluctuations. Our methodology builds on classes of Gaussian and Student's-t distributed, time varying panel VAR models, by proposing a fat-tailed common stochastic volatility factor. We find an important asymmetry in the effects of international shocks, with around 47 percent of negative and 68 percent of positive fluctuations resulting from foreign disturbances. More generally, international shocks have contributed to around half of all Australian business cycle fluctuations over the past two decades. The fourth paper (Chapter 5 - joint with Aubrey Poon, Joshua Chan and Timothy Kam), deviates from the first three papers in that it uses Canadian data. Our objective is to quantify the impacts of uncertainty shocks to the business cycle fluctuations of a small open economy. Using a Bayesian-estimated structural model, we quantify which time-varying risk - in domestic demand or supply conditions, in domestic monetary or fiscal policy, or, in international economic and policy spillovers factors - matter for a small open economy like Canada. Our results suggest that the historical movements in Canadian real GDP are due largely to domestic fiscal- and monetary-policy shocks, and, due to non-negligible time variations in the riskiness of these policy shocks.
Book Synopsis A Factor Model Analysis of the Australian Economy and the Effects of Inflation Targeting by : Luke Hartigan
Download or read book A Factor Model Analysis of the Australian Economy and the Effects of Inflation Targeting written by Luke Hartigan and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based on a dynamic factor model for a data set with more than 100 variables, we find that macroeconomic fluctuations in Australia can be largely captured by just two common factors. However, the factor structure changed soon after the introduction of inflation targeting in the 1990s, resulting in a large reduction in cross-sectional variation related to these common factors. Estimates from a block-exogenous factor-augmented vector autoregressive model suggest that the transmission and responsiveness of monetary policy also changed, with policy both more effective and responsive to the potential inflationary impacts of shocks following the introduction of inflation targeting.
Book Synopsis Structural Vector Autoregressive Models and Monetary Policy Analysis by : Oliver Holtemöller
Download or read book Structural Vector Autoregressive Models and Monetary Policy Analysis written by Oliver Holtemöller and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model is used to analyze short-run and contemporaneous relationships between monetary aggregates and other macroeconomic variables. This requires imposing restrictions on the correlation structure of the VAR residuals. Different approaches can be followed to serve this task. One approach is to use the Cholesky decomposition together with the assumption of a recursive structure of the contemporaneous relationships between the variables. Another approach uses the information given by the history of the variables (generalized impulse response functions). A third possibility is to adopt restrictions from economic theory. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the implications of the latter technique in a simple monetary framework for both Germany and the Euro area. VAR/VECM residuals are interpreted as deviations of the variables from their conditional expected values, which are also analyzed in a broad set of theoretical monetary models. The model used here builds upon the framework proposed by McCallum (1989) with an extension in order to consider the role of private banks in the money supply process. The implications of this model for impulse response analysis are discussed, and impulse responses for different models are calculated and compared to each other.
Book Synopsis Dissecting Taylor Rules in a Structural VAR by : Woon Gyu Choi
Download or read book Dissecting Taylor Rules in a Structural VAR written by Woon Gyu Choi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-01-01 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper uncovers Taylor rules from estimated monetary policy reactions using a structural VAR on U.S. data from 1959 to 2009. These Taylor rules reveal the dynamic nature of policy responses to different structural shocks. We find that U.S. monetary policy has been far more responsive over time to demand shocks than to supply shocks, and more aggressive toward inflation than output growth. Our estimated dynamic policy coefficients characterize the style of policy as a "bang-bang" control for the pre-1979 period and as a gradual control for the post-1979 period.
Book Synopsis The Cambridge Handbook of Social Sciences in Australia by : Ian McAllister
Download or read book The Cambridge Handbook of Social Sciences in Australia written by Ian McAllister and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2003-08-07 with total page 738 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First published in 2003, The Cambridge Handbook of Social Sciences in Australia is a high-quality reference on significant research in Australian social sciences. The book is divided into three main sections, covering the central areas of the social sciences-economics, political science and sociology. Each section examines the significant research in the field, placing it within the context of broader debates about the nature of the social sciences and the ways in which institutional changes have shaped how they are defined, taught and researched.
Book Synopsis OECD Reviews of Regulatory Reform: Australia 2010 Towards a Seamless National Economy by : OECD
Download or read book OECD Reviews of Regulatory Reform: Australia 2010 Towards a Seamless National Economy written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2010-02-15 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This review presents a general picture, set within a macroeconomic context, of regulatory achievements and challenges in Australia, including regulatory quality at federal level as well as across levels of government, competition policy and market openness.
Book Synopsis Post-Keynesian Empirical Research and the Debate on Financial Market Development by : Chaiechi, Taha
Download or read book Post-Keynesian Empirical Research and the Debate on Financial Market Development written by Chaiechi, Taha and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2014-04-30 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Current research often highlights the importance of financial markets as well as financial system development. However, the current literature in this field still fails to adequately explain the relationship between financial market and macroeconomic development. Post-Keynesian Empirical Research and the Debate on Financial Market Development integrates the concept of financial intermediaries with Post-Keynesian macroeconomic modeling to discuss the relationship between financial markets and systems and macroeconomic development. Discussing key macroeconomic variables such as investment, savings, and productivity growth, this timely resource is essential for students, academicians, as well as finance and economics professionals interested in uncovering the latest research in this field.
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy and the Economy in South Africa by : M. Ncube
Download or read book Monetary Policy and the Economy in South Africa written by M. Ncube and published by Springer. This book was released on 2013-08-30 with total page 259 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monetary Policy and the Economy in South Africa covers both modern theories and empirical analysis, linking monetary policy with relating house wealth, drivers of current account based on asset approach, expenditure switching and income absorption effects of monetary policy on trade balance, effects of inflation uncertainty on output growth and international spill overs. Each chapter uses data and relevant methodology to answer empirical and pertinent policy questions in South Africa. The book gives new insights into understanding these areas of economic policy and the wider emerging-markets.
Book Synopsis International Dimensions of Monetary Policy by : Jordi Galí
Download or read book International Dimensions of Monetary Policy written by Jordi Galí and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2010-03-15 with total page 663 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.
Book Synopsis The Evolution of Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific by : Akhand Akhtar Hossain
Download or read book The Evolution of Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific written by Akhand Akhtar Hossain and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2015-08-28 with total page 654 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book of case studies is a significant contribution to monetary macroeconomics in which country-specific experience and issues in inflation and monetary policy are reviewed and analysed in an historical context. In doing so, the key ideas and views
Book Synopsis Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis by : Lutz Kilian
Download or read book Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis written by Lutz Kilian and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-11-23 with total page 757 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discusses the econometric foundations of structural vector autoregressive modeling, as used in empirical macroeconomics, finance, and related fields.
Book Synopsis Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time? by : Mr.Jiaqian Chen
Download or read book Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time? written by Mr.Jiaqian Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-07 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering techniques. It also produces smaller out-of-sample forecast errors for inflation. At the same time, however, our results suggest caution in basing policy decisions on output gap estimates.
