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A Small Quarterly Multi Country Projection Model
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Book Synopsis A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model by : Mr.Ondrej Kamenik
Download or read book A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model written by Mr.Ondrej Kamenik and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2008-12-01 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the second of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the US, Euro Area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties. We show how the model can be used to construct efficient baseline forecasts that incorporate judgment imposed on the near-term outlook.
Book Synopsis A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model with Financial-Real Linkages and Oil Prices by : Mr.Ondrej Kamenik
Download or read book A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model with Financial-Real Linkages and Oil Prices written by Mr.Ondrej Kamenik and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-12-01 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the third of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the US, Euro Area, and Japanese economies that incorporates oil prices and allows us to trace out the effects of shocks to oil prices. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques. We show how the model can be used to construct efficient baseline forecasts that incorporate judgment imposed on the near-term outlook.
Book Synopsis A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy by : Mr.Ondrej Kamenik
Download or read book A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy written by Mr.Ondrej Kamenik and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-12-01 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the U.S. economy. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties. After developing a benchmark model without financial-real linkages, we introduce such linkages into the model and compare the results with and without linkages.
Download or read book GPM6 written by Ioan Carabenciov and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-04-10 with total page 79 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the sixth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we add three more regions and make a number of other changes to a previously estimated small quarterly projection model of the US, euro area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties.
Book Synopsis Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model by : Charles Freedman
Download or read book Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model written by Charles Freedman and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-11-01 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the fifth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we add Indonesia to a previously estimated small quarterly projection model of the US, euro area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties.
Book Synopsis Adding Latin America to the Global Projection Model by : Charles Freedman
Download or read book Adding Latin America to the Global Projection Model written by Charles Freedman and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2009-04-01 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the fourth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we add Latin American economies to a previously estimated small quarterly projection model of the US, Euro Area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties.
Book Synopsis A Small Quarterly Multi-country Projection Model with Financial-real Linkages and Oil Prices by :
Download or read book A Small Quarterly Multi-country Projection Model with Financial-real Linkages and Oil Prices written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the third of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the US, Euro Area, and Japanese economies that incorporates oil prices and allows us to trace out the effects of shocks to oil prices. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques. We show how the model can be used to construct efficient baseline forecasts that incorporate judgment imposed on the near-term outlook.
Book Synopsis A Small Quarterly Multi-country Projection Model by :
Download or read book A Small Quarterly Multi-country Projection Model written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the second of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the US, Euro Area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties. We show how the model can be used to construct efficient baseline forecasts that incorporate judgment imposed on the near-term outlook.
Book Synopsis Quarterly Projection Model for India by : Mr.Jaromir Benes
Download or read book Quarterly Projection Model for India written by Mr.Jaromir Benes and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-02-13 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper outlines the key features of the production version of the quarterly projection model (QPM), which is a forward-looking open-economy gap model, calibrated to represent the Indian case, for generating forecasts and risk assessment as well as conducting policy analysis. QPM incorporates several India-specific features like the importance of the agricultural sector and food prices in the inflation process; features of monetary policy transmission and implications of an endogenous credibility process for monetary policy formulation. The paper also describes key properties and historical decompositions of some important macroeconomic variables.
Book Synopsis Systemic Risk, Aggregate Demand, and Commodity Prices by : Javier Gómez-Pineda
Download or read book Systemic Risk, Aggregate Demand, and Commodity Prices written by Javier Gómez-Pineda and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-07-20 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper presents a global model with systemic and country risks, as well as commodity prices.We show that systemic risk shocks have an important impact on world economic activity, with the busts in world output gap corresponding to unobserved systemic risk associated with major financial events. In addition, systemic risk shocks are shown to be important drivers of output gaps while country risk premium shocks can have important effects on the trade balance. Commodity prices, in particular the price of oil, are shown to be demand driven. The model performs well at one- and four-quarter horizons compared to a survey of analysts' forecasts. In addition, systemic risk shocks explain a large share of the forecast variance for the world output gap, country output gaps, the price of oil, and country risk premiums. The importance of systemic risk shocks lends support for financial surveillance with a systemic focus.
Book Synopsis Adding China to the Global Projection Model by : Patrick Blagrave
Download or read book Adding China to the Global Projection Model written by Patrick Blagrave and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-12-19 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We extend the Global Projection Model (GPM) to include a separate block for China. China plays an important role in shaping global economic outcomes, given its sheer size and trade integration with other key economies, its demand for commodities, and its policies. Also, the Chinese economy has several unique features which differentiate it from the rest of emerging Asia. These features (the use of multiple monetary-policy instruments and a managed-floating exchange-rate policy) mean that a separate treatment of China allows for a better consideration of China, as well as how the rest of emerging Asia behaves.
Book Synopsis An Extended Quarterly Projection Model: Credit Cycle, Macrofinancial Linkages and Macroprudential Measures: The Case of the Philippines by : Mr. Philippe D Karam
Download or read book An Extended Quarterly Projection Model: Credit Cycle, Macrofinancial Linkages and Macroprudential Measures: The Case of the Philippines written by Mr. Philippe D Karam and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-22 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We extend a modern practical Quarterly Projection Model to study credit cycle dynamics and risks, focusing on macrofinancial linkages and the role of macroprudential policy in achieving economic and financial stability. We tailor the model to the Philippines and evaluate the model’s properties along several dimensions. The model produces plausible dynamics and sensible forecasts. This along with its simplicity makes it useful for policy analysis. In particular, it should help policymakers understand the quantitative implications of responding to changes in domestic financial conditions, along with other shocks, through the joint use of macroprudential and monetary policies.
Book Synopsis Economic Forecasting and Policy by : N. Carnot
Download or read book Economic Forecasting and Policy written by N. Carnot and published by Springer. This book was released on 2011-07-26 with total page 495 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting.
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the Group of Twenty by : Francis Vitek
Download or read book Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the Group of Twenty written by Francis Vitek and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-06-01 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a panel unobserved components model of the monetary transmission mechanism in the world economy, disaggregated into twenty national economies along the lines of the Group of Twenty. This structural macroeconometric model features extensive linkages between the real and financial sectors, both within and across economies. A variety of monetary policy analysis and forecasting applications of the estimated model are demonstrated, based on a Bayesian framework for conditioning on judgment.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1589067584 Total Pages :324 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (89 download)
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, October 2008 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 2008 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-10-10 with total page 324 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A unique international exercise in information-gathering and analysis An extraordinary confluence of global forces has kept the world economy strong in the past few years, but there are now numerous challenges to growth. The World Economic Outlook (WEO) presents the IMF's leading economists' analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium terms. It is a respected, one-stop, trusted resource offering remarkable insight, balance, and perspective to decision makers and policymakers worldwide. Published at least twice yearly, the World Economic Outlook presents the outlook for growth, inflation, trade, and other economic developments in a clear, practical format. Each WEO considers the issues affecting advanced and emerging economies. The analytic chapters provide the global intelligence required to deal with global interdependence. These analyses focus on pressing concerns or hotly debated issues, putting prospects for liquidity, inflation, and growth into context. The statistical appendix presents historical data as well as projections and selected series from World Economic Outlook database updated for each report. The October 2008 edition examines commodity prices and inflation, economic cycles in the aftermath of financial crises, the role of fiscal policy during downturns, and current account imbalances in emerging economies. Recent analytic chapters have examined climate change, the housing cycle, commodity prices, capital inflows, globalization and inequality, and the global business cycle.
Book Synopsis OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2012 Issue 1 by : OECD
Download or read book OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2012 Issue 1 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2012-06-19 with total page 301 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD’s twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years.
Book Synopsis Structural Models in Real Time by : Mr.Jaromir Benes
Download or read book Structural Models in Real Time written by Mr.Jaromir Benes and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-03-01 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper outlines a simple approach for incorporating extraneous predictions into structural models. The method allows the forecaster to combine predictions derived from any source in a way that is consistent with the underlying structure of the model. The method is flexible enough that predictions can be up-weighted or down-weighted on a case-by-case basis. We illustrate the approach using a small quarterly structural and real-time data for the United States.