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A Modern History Of Fiscal Prudence And Profligacy
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Book Synopsis A Modern History of Fiscal Prudence and Profligacy by : Mr.Paolo Mauro
Download or read book A Modern History of Fiscal Prudence and Profligacy written by Mr.Paolo Mauro and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-09 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We draw on a newly collected historical dataset of fiscal variables for a large panel of countries—to our knowledge, the most comprehensive database currently available—to gauge the degree of fiscal prudence or profligacy for each country over the past several decades. Specifically, our dataset consists of fiscal revenues, primary expenditures, the interest bill (and thus both the primary and the overall fiscal deficit), the government debt, and gross domestic product, for 55 countries for up to two hundred years. For the first time, a large cross country historical data set covers both fiscal stocks and flows. Using Bohn’s (1998) approach and other tests for fiscal sustainability, we document how the degree of prudence or profligacy varies significantly over time within individual countries. We find that such variation is driven in part by unexpected changes in potential economic growth and sovereign borrowing costs.
Download or read book Sovereign Debt written by S. Ali Abbas and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2019-10-21 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The last time global sovereign debt reached the level seen today was at the end of the Second World War, and this shaped a generation of economic policymaking. International institutions were transformed, country policies were often draconian and distortive, and many crises ensued. By the early 1970s, when debt fell back to pre-war levels, the world was radically different. It is likely that changes of a similar magnitude -for better and for worse - will play out over coming decades. Sovereign Debt: A Guide for Economists and Practitioners is an attempt to build some structure around the issues of sovereign debt to help guide economists, practitioners and policymakers through this complicated, but not intractable, subject. Sovereign Debt brings together some of the world's leading researchers and specialists in sovereign debt to cover a range of sub-disciplines within this vast topic. It explores debt management with debt sustainability; debt reduction policies with crisis prevention policies; and the history with the conjuncture. It is a foundation text for all those interested in sovereign debt, with a particular focus real world examples and issues.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Monitor, April 2015 by : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Download or read book Fiscal Monitor, April 2015 written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-04-15 with total page 110 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fiscal risks remain significant in both advanced and emerging market and developing economies. Fiscal policy continues to play an essential role in building confidence and, where appropriate, sustaining aggregate demand. According to this issue of the Fiscal Monitor, strengthening fiscal frameworks—particularly to manage public finance risks and ensure debt sustainability—must be part of the fiscal policy response. Countries should seize the moment created by lower oil prices to start the process of energy taxation and energy subsidy reform. Finally, fiscal policy can contribute substantially to macroeconomic stability, through the workings of automatic stabilizers. By doing so, fiscal policy can also unlock significant growth dividends.
Book Synopsis Public Debt Sustainability by : Barry W. Poulson
Download or read book Public Debt Sustainability written by Barry W. Poulson and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2022-01-04 with total page 389 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As countries recover from the coronavirus pandemic, they are confronted with an even more challenging debt crisis. Xavier Debrun argues in the foreword that in deciding where we go from here that there is no longer a consensus regarding the optimum design and enforcement of fiscal rules. Rather we must address a series of questions and challenges to the conventional wisdom. This book provides an opportunity for scholars to explore these questions from an international perspective, with reference to European countries, and emerging nations as well as the United States.
Book Synopsis Rethinking Fiscal Policy after the Crisis by : Ľudovít Ódor
Download or read book Rethinking Fiscal Policy after the Crisis written by Ľudovít Ódor and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-05-18 with total page 615 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After the financial crisis, what important lessons can we learn from fiscal policy? This book provides an answer to this question.
Book Synopsis Second-Generation Fiscal Rules by : Luc Eyraud
Download or read book Second-Generation Fiscal Rules written by Luc Eyraud and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-04-13 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fiscal rule frameworks have evolved significantly in response to the global financial crisis. Many countries have reformed their fiscal rules or introduced new ones with a view to enhancing the credibility of fiscal policy and providing a medium-term anchor. Enforcement and monitoring mechanisms have also been upgraded. However, these innovations have made the systems of rules more complicated to operate, while compliance has not improved. The SDN takes stock of past experiences, reviews recent reforms, and presents new research on the effectiveness of rules. It also proposes guiding principles for future reforms to strike a better balance between simplicity, flexibility, and enforceability. Read the blog
Download or read book Fiscal Politics written by Vitor Gaspar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-04-07 with total page 548 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Two main themes of the book are that (1) politics can distort optimal fiscal policy through elections and through political fragmentation, and (2) rules and institutions can attenuate the negative effects of this dynamic. The book has three parts: part 1 (9 chapters) outlines the problems; part 2 (6 chapters) outlines how institutions and fiscal rules can offer solutions; and part 3 (4 chapters) discusses how multilevel governance frameworks can help.
Book Synopsis Debt and Entanglements Between the Wars by : Mr.Thomas J Sargent
Download or read book Debt and Entanglements Between the Wars written by Mr.Thomas J Sargent and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-11-08 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: World War I created a set of forces that affected the political arrangements and economies of all the countries involved. This period in global economic history between World War I and II offers rich material for studying international monetary and sovereign debt policies. Debt and Entanglements between the Wars focuses on the experiences of the United States, United Kingdom, four countries in the British Commonwealth (Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Newfoundland), France, Italy, Germany, and Japan, offering unique insights into how political and economic interests influenced alliances, defaults, and the unwinding of debts. The narratives presented show how the absence of effective international collaboration and resolution mechanisms inflicted damage on the global economy, with disastrous consequences.
Book Synopsis The Blind Side of Public Debt Spikes by : Laura Jaramillo
Download or read book The Blind Side of Public Debt Spikes written by Laura Jaramillo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-10-14 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What explains public debt spikes since the end of WWII? To answer this question, this paper identifies 179 debt spike episodes from 1945 to 2014 across advanced and developing countries. We find that debt spikes are not rare events and their probability increases with time. We then show that large public debt spikes are neither driven by high primary deficits nor by output declines but instead by sizable stock-flow adjustments (SFAs). We also find that SFAs are poorly forecasted, which can affect debt sustainability analyses, and are associated with a higher probability of suffering non-declining debt paths in the aftermath of public debt spikes.
Book Synopsis Analyzing and Managing Fiscal Risks - Best Practices by : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Download or read book Analyzing and Managing Fiscal Risks - Best Practices written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-04-05 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Comprehensive analysis and management of fiscal risks can help ensure sound fiscal public finances and macroeconomic stability. This has been underscored by the global financial crisis and the more recent collapse in commodity prices, which starkly illustrate the vulnerability of public finances to risk. Indeed, over the past quarter century, governments experienced on average an adverse fiscal shock of 6 percent of GDP once every 12 years, with some of the largest stemming from financial crises. Countries need a more complete understanding of these potential threats to their fiscal position. Existing fiscal risk disclosure and analysis practices tend to be incomplete, fragmented, and qualitative in nature. A more comprehensive and integrated assessment of the potential shocks to government finances, in the form of a fiscal stress test, can help policymakers simulate the effects of shocks to their central forecasts and their implications for government solvency, liquidity, and financing needs. Comprehensive, reliable, and timely fiscal data covering all public entities, stocks, and flows are a necessary foundation for such analysis. Countries should also enhance their capacity to mitigate and manage fiscal risks. Fiscal risk management practices are often blunt, ad hoc, and too focused on imposing limits on the creation of exposures. Countries need to expand their toolkits for fiscal risk management and adopt the use of instruments to transfer, share, or provision for risks. In doing so, countries need to weigh the possible benefits from reducing their exposure to shocks against the financial and other costs of the policies that may be needed. Finally, countries should make greater use of probabilistic forecasting methods when setting long-run objectives and medium-term targets for fiscal policy. The paper illustrates how simple probabilistic tools can be used to map the uncertainty around medium-term trajectories for public debt. In combination with fiscal stress tests, these tools can provide valuable information regarding the probabilities that a country will stay within the debt ceilings embedded in their fiscal rules. The Fund is playing an important role in supporting improvements in fiscal risk analysis and management among its members. This includes technical assistance in constructing public sector balance sheets; developing institutions and capacity to identify specific fiscal risks and to quantify their potential impact; undertaking fiscal stress tests; and integrating risks into the design of medium-term fiscal targets.
Book Synopsis Instruments of Debtstruction: A New Database of Interwar Debt by : Mr.Nicolas End
Download or read book Instruments of Debtstruction: A New Database of Interwar Debt written by Mr.Nicolas End and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-10-25 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We construct a new, comprehensive instrument-level database of sovereign debt for 18 advanced and emerging countries over the period 1913–46. The database contains data on amounts outstanding for some 3,800 individual debt instruments as well as associated qualitative information, including instrument type, coupon rate, maturity, and currency of issue. This information can provide unique insights into various policies implemented in the interwar period, which was characterized by notoriously high debt levels. We document how interwar governments rolled over debts that were largely unsustainable and how the external public debt network contributed to the collapse of the international financial system in the early 1930s.
Book Synopsis The Motives to Borrow by : Antonio Fatás
Download or read book The Motives to Borrow written by Antonio Fatás and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-05-10 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Governments issue debt for good and bad reasons. While the good reasons—intertemporal tax-smoothing, fiscal stimulus, and asset management—can explain some of the increases in public debt in recent years, they cannot account for all of the observed changes. Bad reasons for borrowing are driven by political failures associated with intergenerational transfers, strategic manipulation, and common pool problems. These political failures are a major cause of overborrowing though budgetary institutions and fiscal rules can play a role in mitigating governments’ tendencies to overborrow. While it is difficult to establish a clear causal link from high public debt to low output growth, it is likely that some countries pay a price—in terms of lower growth and greater output volatility—for excessive debt accumulation.
Book Synopsis Dollar, Euros and Debt by : V. Tanzi
Download or read book Dollar, Euros and Debt written by V. Tanzi and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-30 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dollar, Euro's and Debt discusses the recent financial, economic, and fiscal crisis. It argues that the focus that has been put on cyclical aspects of the crisis has missed the fundamental point, that the crisis is largely structural, even though cyclical factors (the sub-prime problem) may have precipitated, or better anticipated, it.
Book Synopsis The Value of Money by : Matteo Scotto
Download or read book The Value of Money written by Matteo Scotto and published by Villa Vigoni Editore | Verlag. This book was released on 2021-03-10 with total page 233 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Thanks to the collaboration with renowned economists and policymakers, the publication compares Italian and German macro-economic cultures and performances. When the Bretton Woods system crumbled and currencies lost their direct link to the dollar and their indirect link to gold, these two countries embarked upon strongly different monetary policies. This divergence was reflected in the evolution of the exchange rates: the value of one D-Mark increased from 170 Italian lira under Bretton Woods to 990 Italian lira at the start of European Monetary Union: an astounding devaluation of about 85 per cent for the lira! Firstly, the volume describes the German and the Italian economic and, specifically, monetary models, with major attention paid to institutions such as Deutsche Bundesbank and Banca d'Italia, analysing their development in a diachronic perspective. Secondly, these paradigms are contextualized within a broader European context, which is fundamental to reflect upon possible future scenarios. Das Buch versammelt renommierte Ökonomen und Politiker, hauptsächlich (aber nicht nur) aus Italien und Deutschland. Die Autoren vergleichen die makroökonomischen Kulturen und die Leistungsfähigkeit der beiden Länder. Seit dem Zusammenbruch des Bretton-Woods-Systems verfolgen beide Länder sehr unterschiedliche Geldpolitiken. Die Divergenz spiegelte sich auch in der Entwicklung der Wechselkurse: Der Wert der D-Mark stieg von 170 italienischen Lire unter Bretton Woods-Bedingungen auf 990 italienische Lire zu Beginn der Europäischen Währungsunion – eine atemberaubende Abwertung der Lira um rund 85 Prozent! Der Sammelband beschreibt das deutsche und das italienische Wirtschafts- und insbesondere das Geldmodell. Institutionen wie die Bundesbank und die Banca d'Italia stehen im Zentrum. Der historische Hintergrund wird ebenfalls ausgeleuchtet. In einem zweiten Schritt werden diese Modelle in einem breiteren europäischen Kontext analysiert, auch um mögliche künftige Szenarien aufzuzeigen. Mit Beiträgen von: Pierluigi Ciocca, Lorenzo Codogno, Fabio Colasanti, Federico Fubini, Daniel Gros, Otmar Issing, Harold James, Hans-Helmut Kotz, Ivo Maes, Klaus Masuch, Thomas Mayer, Stefano Micossi, Pier Carlo Padoan, Francesco Papadia, Lucio Pench, Tobias Piller, André Sapir, Gunther Schnabl, Ludger Schuhknecht, Sabine Seeger, Giulio Tremonti, Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell. Vorwort von Jean-Claude Trichet
Book Synopsis Fiscal Monitor, October 2013 by : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Download or read book Fiscal Monitor, October 2013 written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-10-09 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Persistently high debt ratios in advanced economies and emerging fragilities in the developing world cast clouds on the global fiscal landscape. In advanced economies, with narrowing budget deficits, the average public debt ratio is expected to stabilize in 2013–14—but it will be at a historic peak. At the same time, fiscal vulnerabilities are on the rise in emerging market economies and low-income countries—on the back, in emerging market economies, of heightened financial volatility and downward revisions to potential growth, and in low-income countries, of possible shortfalls in commodity prices and aid. Strengthening fiscal balances and buttressing confidence thus remain at the top of the policy agenda. Against that backdrop, this issue explores whether and how tax reform can help strengthen public finances. Taxation is always a sensitive topic and is now more than ever at the center of policy debates around the world. Can countries tax more, better, more fairly? Results reported in this issue show that the scope to raise more revenue is limited in many advanced economies and, where tax ratios are already high, the bulk of the necessary adjustment will have to fall on spending. In emerging market economies and low-income countries, where the potential for raising revenue is often substantial, improving compliance remains a central challenge.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Councils by : Mr.Roel M. W. J. Beetsma
Download or read book Fiscal Councils written by Mr.Roel M. W. J. Beetsma and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-04-12 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper discusses the effectiveness of independent fiscal institutions—or fiscal councils—in taming the deficit bias that emerged in the 1970s. After a review of the main theoretical arguments and recent trends about fiscal councils, we develop a stylized model showing how a fiscal council can effectively mitigate the deficit bias even though it has no direct lever on the conduct of fiscal policy. We show that the capacity of the fiscal council to improve the public’s understanding of the quality of fiscal policy contributes to better align voters and policymakers’ incentives and to tame the deficit bias affecting well-intended governments. After mapping the model’s key features into a broad set of criteria likely to contribute to the effectiveness of a fiscal council, we use the 2014 vintage of the IMF dataset on independent fiscal institutions to assess whether existing institutions have been built to work.
Book Synopsis Interest-Growth Differentials and Debt Limits in Advanced Economies by : Philip Barrett
Download or read book Interest-Growth Differentials and Debt Limits in Advanced Economies written by Philip Barrett and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-04-11 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Do persistently low nominal interest rates mean that governments can safely borrow more? To addresses this question, I extend the model of Ghosh et al. [2013] to allow for persistent stochastic changes in nominal interest and growth rates. The key model parameter is the long-run difference between nominal interest and growth rates; if negative, maximum sustainable debts (debt limits) are unbounded. I show how both VAR- and spectral-based methods produce negative point estimates of this long-run differential, but cannot reject positive values at standard significance levels. I calibrate the model to the UK using positive but statistically plausible average interest-growth differentials. This produces debt limits which increase by only around 5% GDP as interest rates fall after 2008. In contrast, only a tiny change in the long-run average interest-growth differential – from the 95th to the 97.5th percentile of the distribution – is required to move average debt limits by the same amount.
