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A Fresh Look At Potential Output In Central Eastern And Southeastern European Countries
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Book Synopsis A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Countries by : Jiri Podpiera
Download or read book A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Countries written by Jiri Podpiera and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-02-14 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Was the postcrisis growth slowdown in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) structural or cyclical? We use three different methods—production function approach, basic multivariate filter, and multivariate filter with financial frictions—to evaluate potential growth and output gaps for 18 CESEE countries during 2000-15. Our findings suggest that potential growth weakened significantly after the crisis across most countries in the region. This decline appears to be largely due to stagnant productivity and weaker capital accumulation, which were associated with common external factors, including trading partners’ slow potential growth, but also decline in global trade and stalled expansion of global value chains. Our estimates suggest that output gaps in 2015 were largely closed in many countries in the region.
Book Synopsis A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Countries by : Jiri Podpiera
Download or read book A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Countries written by Jiri Podpiera and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-03-03 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Was the postcrisis growth slowdown in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) structural or cyclical? We use three different methods—production function approach, basic multivariate filter, and multivariate filter with financial frictions—to evaluate potential growth and output gaps for 18 CESEE countries during 2000-15. Our findings suggest that potential growth weakened significantly after the crisis across most countries in the region. This decline appears to be largely due to stagnant productivity and weaker capital accumulation, which were associated with common external factors, including trading partners’ slow potential growth, but also decline in global trade and stalled expansion of global value chains. Our estimates suggest that output gaps in 2015 were largely closed in many countries in the region.
Author :International Monetary Fund. European Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1484357027 Total Pages :65 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis Montenegro by : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Download or read book Montenegro written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-05-21 with total page 65 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper analyzes the long-term growth prospects and the output gap in Montenegro. Historical growth in Montenegro was driven mostly by capital with some contribution from labor, while total factor productivity (TFP) contributed negatively. Going forward, in the baseline growth accounting framework with no reforms, employment will likely have a slightly negative contribution because of demographic dynamics unless both labor force participation and unemployment improve significantly. The highway project will contribute to capital accumulation in the near term, but the contribution from capital accumulation will likely fall despite relatively high investment ratios. Based on historical performance, the contribution from TFP is likely limited and constitutes the main bottleneck for long-term growth prospects in the no-reform baseline.
Author :International Monetary Fund. European Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1484337336 Total Pages :75 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis Republic of Croatia by : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Download or read book Republic of Croatia written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-01-16 with total page 75 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Croatia continued its third year of positive economic growth in 2017. Growth is expected to stay at similar levels in the near future but to decelerate over the medium term. Consumer prices increased at a moderate pace and wage growth was also moderate as unemployment remained high. The external current account is expected to record another strong surplus, underpinned by robust performance of exports and tourism and lower repatriation of profits as banks absorbed losses from Agrokor. The balance of risks has improved but vulnerabilities remain sizable as public and external debt levels are still high, and the full impact of the Agrokor restructuring is yet unknown.
Author :International Monetary Fund. European Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1484341449 Total Pages :79 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis Hungary by : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Download or read book Hungary written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-04-29 with total page 79 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses backgrounds and recent developments in the economy of Hungary. The Hungarian economy has been growing at a robust pace over the past few years helped by supportive macroeconomic policies, a favorable external environment, and high utilization of European Union (EU) funds. Unemployment declined sharply, amid a continuous rise in labor participation. Inflationary pressures have remained subdued. Better-than-budgeted fiscal performance last year helped reduce the public debt ratio. But 2016 is not going to be very encouraging for Hungarian economy. Growth prospects remain subdued reflecting an adverse business climate. The balance of risks is tilted to the downside.
Author :International Monetary Fund. European Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1475552440 Total Pages :91 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (755 download)
Book Synopsis Bulgaria by : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Download or read book Bulgaria written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-11-10 with total page 91 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Bulgarian economy has shown resilience since the last Article IV consultation. Growth over the last 4 quarters exceeded expectations. The authorities took concrete steps to correct the fiscal slippage in 2014 and efforts are underway to strengthen confidence in the health of the financial system. Looking ahead, risks to the outlook are broadly balanced. Downside risks stem mostly from weak external demand, possible regional tension, and reversal in domestic policy reforms.
Author :International Monetary Fund. European Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :148439951X Total Pages :60 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis Republic of Slovenia by : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Download or read book Republic of Slovenia written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-02-18 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Article IV Consultation highlights that the continued structural reforms are key to ensure long-term prosperity, while strengthening the economy’s resilience to shocks. Effective implementation of the recently enacted reforms of vocational training, apprenticeship, and adult education would help address skill shortages, support employment of younger and older people, and boost productivity growth. Macro-financial legacy issues remain in bank and corporate balance sheets, including small and medium enterprises’ nonperforming loans. Structural challenges persist with low productivity growth, skills shortages, high tax wedge, heavy regulatory system, and extensive presence of state-owned enterprises. Policies should focus on fiscal and structural reforms to rebuild fiscal buffers and increase productivity. Slovenia’s external position in 2018 is assessed as substantially stronger than suggested by fundamentals and desirable policies; however the current account is expected to revert toward its norm in the medium term. Continued structural reforms are key to ensure long-term prosperity, while strengthening the economy’s resilience to shocks. Effective implementation of the recently enacted reforms of vocational training, apprenticeship, and adult education would help address skill shortages, support employment of younger and older people, and boost productivity growth.
Author :International Monetary Fund. European Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1484364864 Total Pages :60 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis Republic of Lithuania by : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Download or read book Republic of Lithuania written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-06-29 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Lithuania's economic performance has been impressive, but the country now risks falling into the middle-income trap. The economy is growing at a healthy pace, and external and internal imbalances have been corrected. Nevertheless, significant mediumterm challenges have yet to be addressed. These include tackling adverse demographics, transitioning from a low-wage to high-productivity growth model and addressing high income inequality. Addressing these challenges will require ambitious structural reforms.
Book Synopsis Economics of European Crises and Emerging Markets by : Peter Havlik
Download or read book Economics of European Crises and Emerging Markets written by Peter Havlik and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-08-07 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume explores a wide range of case studies, analyses, histories, and polemics on the fate of post-socialist Europe- and why that matters to readers today. Nearly 30 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the post-socialist economies of the former East remain adrift, buffeted by the international financial crisis, the Ukraine crisis, and the ongoing instability in the European Union. This new book brings together a diverse range of scholars in offering a comprehensive look at the struggles faced by policymakers, economists and business people across the former East, and the ways that they responded to crisis. This volume also will be of great value to policymakers, academics, historians, and economists seeking to understand possible influence of China's One Belt One Road policy on Eastern Europe and Russia.
Author :International Monetary Fund. European Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1484310314 Total Pages :64 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis Republic of Poland by : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Download or read book Republic of Poland written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-07-17 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper highlights the fact that to address the challenge of declining working age population, policies should not only aim to support fertility, but also to increase labor force participation rate, to improve labor allocation across sectors and to encourage net immigration. However, with some recent measures going in the opposite direction, even such mitigating policies may not fully offset the demographic headwinds. Poland faces profound demographic changes. The decline of fertility rate and growing life expectancy, mostly driven by longevity of older cohorts, will significantly change the demographic landscape. Demographics may soon pose a barrier for growth. The historical expansion of working age population appears to have been only partly utilized to boost potential growth, with increased unemployment and declined labor force participation rates dampening potential gains. Net migration was also a drag on the labor supply in the past, but this has changed recently. In addition to a steady outflow of permanent migrants, there was a sharp pickup in temporary migration after EU accession.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1484367227 Total Pages :36 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis Vietnam by : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Download or read book Vietnam written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-10 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Selected Issues
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1484315448 Total Pages :19 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis IMF Research Bulletin, Summer 2017 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book IMF Research Bulletin, Summer 2017 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-08-11 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Summer 2017 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin highlights new research such as recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes. The Research Summaries are “Structural Reform Packages, Sequencing, and the Informal Economy (by Zsuzsa Munkacsi and Magnus Saxegaard) and “A Broken Social Contract, Not High Inequality Led to the Arab Spring” (by Shantayanan Devarajan and Elena Ianchovichina). The Q&A section features “Seven Questions on Fintech” (by Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli). The Bulletin also includes information on recommended titles from IMF Publications and the latest articles from the IMF Economic Review.
Author :International Monetary Fund. European Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1484370953 Total Pages :44 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis Slovak Republic by : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Download or read book Slovak Republic written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-26 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Selected Issues
Author :International Monetary Fund. European Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :149834612X Total Pages :73 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis Czech Republic by : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Download or read book Czech Republic written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-07-07 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A favorable external environment, high utilization of EU funds, and supportive macroeconomic policies have boosted economic growth. The authorities’ medium-term fiscal objective is appropriate, but fiscal framework legislation that would anchor policy is yet to be approved by parliament. The central bank’s use of an exchange rate floor to achieve its inflation target has helped stem deflationary pressures, but inflation is still well below target. The financial system is sound and resilient to shocks.
Book Synopsis Emigration and Its Economic Impact on Eastern Europe by : Mr.Ruben V Atoyan
Download or read book Emigration and Its Economic Impact on Eastern Europe written by Mr.Ruben V Atoyan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-07-20 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyses the impact of large and persistent emigration from Eastern European countries over the past 25 years on these countries’ growth and income convergence to advanced Europe. While emigration has likely benefited migrants themselves, the receiving countries and the EU as a whole, its impact on sending countries’ economies has been largely negative. The analysis suggests that labor outflows, particularly of skilled workers, lowered productivity growth, pushed up wages, and slowed growth and income convergence. At the same time, while remittance inflows supported financial deepening, consumption and investment in some countries, they also reduced incentives to work and led to exchange rate appreciations, eroding competiveness. The departure of the young also added to the fiscal pressures of already aging populations in Eastern Europe. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for sending countries to mitigate the negative impact of emigration on their economies, and the EU-wide initiatives that could support these efforts.
Book Synopsis Infrastructure in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe by : Anil Ari
Download or read book Infrastructure in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe written by Anil Ari and published by . This book was released on 2020-09-28 with total page 123 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: CESEE countries lag in terms of infrastructure compared to the EU15, and deficient infrastructure is often cited as a constraint to growth and convergence. Investing in infrastructure is therefore an important long-standing policy issue for the region. In the context of the Covid-19 pandemic, infrastructure investment has also gained some ground as economies look to support activity in the recovery phase once the virus has been contained. Against this backdrop, this project seeks to benchmark infrastructure in CESEE, assess the macro impact of higher infrastructure investment, and discuss policies issues to maximize such impact. First, we benchmark infrastructure in the region versus the EU15, across various infrastructure sectors and using different methodologies. Second, deploying empirical estimates and model-based simulations, we analyze the macroeconomic impact of boosting infrastructure investment. Third, we present an in-depth analysis of policy issues: enhancing public investment management, managing fiscal risks, and mobilizing private sector participation.
Author :International Monetary Fund. European Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1484308069 Total Pages :13 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis Republic of Latvia by : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Download or read book Republic of Latvia written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-07-07 with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses potential growth and its drivers for Latvia 6 years after the growth turnaround and presents projections for the medium term. As the labor force is projected to decline, implementation of policies to increase investment and support total factor productivity (TFP) growth will be essential to ensure income convergence going forward. The level of potential growth has direct consequences for Latvia’s convergence path. Latvia’s GDP per capita was about 62 percent of the EU-15 average in 2015. A better understanding of potential output is important for policy setting. For example, an estimate of the output gap enters the fiscal reaction function through the cyclical adjustment of the fiscal balance and therefore directly influences policy makers’ assessments of whether fiscal policy should respond to deviations from potential. Potential output is an elusive concept and can be defined in various ways. Potential output is generally defined according to the Okun concept as the level of output consistent with stable inflation, while short-run deviations of actual from potential output, due to the slow adjustment of wages and prices to shocks, reflect the output gap—or economic slack.
