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A Financial Conditions Index For South Africa
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Book Synopsis A Financial Conditions Index for South Africa by : Mr.Nombulelo Gumata
Download or read book A Financial Conditions Index for South Africa written by Mr.Nombulelo Gumata and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The main purpose of this paper is to construct a financial conditions index (FCI) for South Africa. The analysis extracts the index by applying two alternative approaches (principal component analysis and Kalman filter), which identify an unobservable common factor from a group of external and domestic financial indicators. The alternative estimated FCIs, which share a similar trajectory over time, seem to have a powerful predictive information for the near-term GDP growth (up to four quarters), and they outperform the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) leading indicator as well as individual financial variables. Their recent dynamics suggest that following a strong recovery in late-2009 and 2010, reflecting in part domestic factors such as systematic reductions in the policy rate, the rebound in real economic activity, and a benign inflationary environment, the financial conditions have deteriorated in recent months, though not as sharply as in end-2008. Given their relatively high predictive power regarding GDP growth, a further deterioration may imply that economic activity is likely to slow in the period ahead.
Book Synopsis Essays on the Financial Conditions Index for South Africa by : Kirsten Thompson
Download or read book Essays on the Financial Conditions Index for South Africa written by Kirsten Thompson and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis South Africa by : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Download or read book South Africa written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-11 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper estimates the potential growth rate for South Africa using different methodologies. In line with existing studies and findings for other emerging markets, the paper finds that South Africa’s potential growth rate has declined in the post global financial crisis period. Though there is substantial uncertainty, South Africa’s potential growth is estimated to have fallen from an average of 3.5 to 4 percent during 2000–08 to 2.25 to 2.50 percent in 2010–14, implying that the output gap in 2014 would be between –0.5 and –1.3 percent of GDP.
Book Synopsis A Financial Conditions Index for Poland by : Giang Ho
Download or read book A Financial Conditions Index for Poland written by Giang Ho and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-12-19 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper constructs a financial conditions index for Poland to explore the link between financial conditions and real economic activity. The index in constructed by applying two complementary approaches—factor analysis and vector auto-regression approach. We evaluate the index’s forecasting performance against a composite leading indicator developed by the OECD. We found that the FCI is highly correlated with GDP growth, attesting to the importance of financial sector in Poland’s economy. In-sample and out-of-sample forecasting exercises indicate that the FCI can outperform the CLI in predicting near-term GDP growth.
Book Synopsis A Financial Conditions Index for Greece by : Mr.Jonathan F Manning
Download or read book A Financial Conditions Index for Greece written by Mr.Jonathan F Manning and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-10-02 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We construct a Financial Conditions Index (FCI) for Greece as a surveillance tool to quantify the degree of the stress in the financial sector. We use principal component analysis to capture the information content of several financial indicators through a single index. We also construct an alternative FCI by purging the business cycle and monetary policy effects on the input variables, and argue that this alternative index is a better indicator of exogenous financial shocks, and thus could be interpreted as a measure of the efficacy of transmission mechanism. We replicate the index for the euro area (EA) as a whole and show that although the developments in the EA were qualitatively in line with those in Greece, they were quantitatively much milder. Our results confirm that monetary transmission was less effective in Greece compared to the EA as a whole. Finally, we argue that our index can be a potentially useful forecasting tool for credit growth.
Book Synopsis Bank Credit Extension and Real Economic Activity in South Africa by : Nombulelo Gumata
Download or read book Bank Credit Extension and Real Economic Activity in South Africa written by Nombulelo Gumata and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-03-13 with total page 612 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents empirical evidence that supports and facilitates a practical, integrated approach to how bank regulatory and selected macro-prudential tools interact with monetary policy to achieve price and financial stability. The empirical results contained in various chapters accompany in-depth historical analysis and counterfactual scenarios that enable proper policy evaluation and the interaction of bank regulatory, macro-prudential and monetary policy tools in South Africa. The presented evidence also identifies financial asset boom and bust episodes and the associated costly output losses. In addition, the authors explore the amplification of credit dynamics by commodity prices and sector credit re-allocation due to capital inflows shocks. The book’s empirical analysis uses a wide range of statistical and econometric approaches on granular data and economic variables to derive policy implications and recommendations. This in-depth quantitative analysis includes determining inverse transmission of global liquidity, as well as the effects of capital flows, lending-rate margins, financial regulatory uncertainty, the National Credit Act, bank capital-adequacy ratios, bank loan loss provisions, loan-to-value ratios and repayment-to-income ratios on the macro-economy.
Book Synopsis Africa Index by : United Nations. Economic Commission for Africa. Library
Download or read book Africa Index written by United Nations. Economic Commission for Africa. Library and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Mauritius by : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Download or read book Mauritius written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-04-29 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper develops a Financial Conditions Index (FCI) for Mauritius—an instrument to gauge the operational state of the financial sector and predict real economy activity. The evolution of Mauritius’ financial services sector has been supported by a vibrant offshore corporate sector. Given the strong macro-financial linkages, it is imperative to closely monitor domestic financial developments. Financial developments are broader than monetary developments depicting money supply and interest rates. The FCI is a robust predictor of real GDP growth in Mauritius. The FCI can also help inform macroprudential policy decisions. Decisions on setting the countercyclical capital buffer of Basel III could be informed by analyzing developments in the FCI. As historically Mauritius has not experienced drastic swings in financial credit, testing the constructed FCIs for predicting boom-bust episodes is difficult. Nevertheless, the FCI signaled lax financial conditions in 2009 and again in 2012 that likely contributed to accelerated credit growth in 2012–2013 and a subsequent acceleration in nonperforming loans during 2014–2016.
Book Synopsis Financial Conditions Index by : Manamani Sahoo
Download or read book Financial Conditions Index written by Manamani Sahoo and published by . This book was released on 2017-12-26 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498324029 Total Pages :109 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis Global Financial Stability Report, October 2019 by : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report, October 2019 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-10-16 with total page 109 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The October 2019 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) identifies the current key vulnerabilities in the global financial system as the rise in corporate debt burdens, increasing holdings of riskier and more illiquid assets by institutional investors, and growing reliance on external borrowing by emerging and frontier market economies. The report proposes that policymakers mitigate these risks through stricter supervisory and macroprudential oversight of firms, strengthened oversight and disclosure for institutional investors, and the implementation of prudent sovereign debt management practices and frameworks for emerging and frontier market economies.
Book Synopsis Global Financial Stability Report, April 2021 by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report, April 2021 written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-04-06 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extraordinary policy measures have eased financial conditions and supported the economy, helping to contain financial stability risks. Chapter 1 warns that there is a pressing need to act to avoid a legacy of vulnerabilities while avoiding a broad tightening of financial conditions. Actions taken during the pandemic may have unintended consequences such as stretched valuations and rising financial vulnerabilities. The recovery is also expected to be asynchronous and divergent between advanced and emerging market economies. Given large external financing needs, several emerging markets face challenges, especially if a persistent rise in US rates brings about a repricing of risk and tighter financial conditions. The corporate sector in many countries is emerging from the pandemic overindebted, with notable differences depending on firm size and sector. Concerns about the credit quality of hard-hit borrowers and profitability are likely to weigh on the risk appetite of banks. Chapter 2 studies leverage in the nonfinancial private sector before and during the COVID-19 crisis, pointing out that policymakers face a trade-off between boosting growth in the short term by facilitating an easing of financial conditions and containing future downside risks. This trade-off may be amplified by the existing high and rapidly building leverage, increasing downside risks to future growth. The appropriate timing for deployment of macroprudential tools should be country-specific, depending on the pace of recovery, vulnerabilities, and policy tools available. Chapter 3 turns to the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the commercial real estate sector. While there is little evidence of large price misalignments at the onset of the pandemic, signs of overvaluation have now emerged in some economies. Misalignments in commercial real estate prices, especially if they interact with other vulnerabilities, increase downside risks to future growth due to the possibility of sharp price corrections.
Download or read book Doing Business 2020 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-11-21 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seventeen in a series of annual reports comparing business regulation in 190 economies, Doing Business 2020 measures aspects of regulation affecting 10 areas of everyday business activity.
Book Synopsis Financial Soundness Indicators for Financial Sector Stability in Viet Nam by : Asian Development Bank
Download or read book Financial Soundness Indicators for Financial Sector Stability in Viet Nam written by Asian Development Bank and published by Asian Development Bank. This book was released on 2015-09-01 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial soundness indicators (FSIs) are methodological tools that help quantify and qualify the soundness and vulnerabilities of financial systems according to five areas of interests: capital adequacy, asset quality, earnings, liquidity, and sensitivity to market risk. With support from the Investment Climate Facilitation Fund under the Regional Cooperation and Integration Financing Facility, this report describes the development of FSIs for Viet Nam and analyzes the stability and soundness of the Vietnamese banking system by using these indicators. The key challenges to comprehensively implementing reforms and convincingly addressing the root causes of the banking sector problems include (i) assessing banks' recapitalization needs, (ii) revising classification criteria to guide resolution options, (iii) recapitalization and restructuring that may include foreign partnerships, (iv) strengthening the Vietnam Asset Management Company, (v) developing additional options to deal with nonperforming loans, (vi) tightening supervision to ensure a sound lending practice, (vii) revamping the architecture and procedures for crisis management, and (viii) strengthening financial safety nets during the reform process.
Book Synopsis Growth at Risk: Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance by : Mr.Ananthakrishnan Prasad
Download or read book Growth at Risk: Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance written by Mr.Ananthakrishnan Prasad and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-02-21 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its main strength is its ability to assess the entire distribution of future GDP growth (in contrast to point forecasts), quantify macrofinancial risks in terms of growth, and monitor the evolution of risks to economic activity over time. By using GaR analysis, policymakers can quantify the likelihood of risk scenarios, which would serve as a basis for preemptive action. This paper offers practical guidance on how to conduct GaR analysis and draws lessons from country case studies. It also discusses an Excel-based GaR tool developed to support the IMF’s bilateral surveillance efforts.
Book Synopsis Can Countries Manage Their Financial Conditions Amid Globalization? by : Mr.Nicolas Arregui
Download or read book Can Countries Manage Their Financial Conditions Amid Globalization? written by Mr.Nicolas Arregui and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-01-25 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the evolving importance of common global components underlying domestic financial conditions. It develops financial conditions indices (FCIs) that make it possible to compare a large set of advanced and emerging market economies. It finds that a common component, “global financial conditions,” accounts for about 20 percent to 40 percent of the variation in countries’ domestic FCIs, with notable heterogeneity across countries. Its importance, however, does not seem to have increased markedly over the past two decades. Global financial conditions loom large, but evidence suggests that, on average, countries still appear to hold considerable sway over their own financial conditions—specifically, through monetary policy. Nevertheless, the rapid speed at which foreign shocks affect domestic financial conditions may also make it difficult to react in a timely and effective manner, if deemed necessary.
Book Synopsis Financial Conditions in Europe: Dynamics, Drivers, and Macroeconomic Implications by : Giovanni Borraccia
Download or read book Financial Conditions in Europe: Dynamics, Drivers, and Macroeconomic Implications written by Giovanni Borraccia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-09-29 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop a new measure of financial conditions (FCs) that targets the growth of financial liabilities using the partial least square methodology. We then estimate financial condition indexes (FCIs) across European economies, both at the aggregate and sectoral levels. We decompose the changes in FCs into several factors including credit availability and costs, price of risk, policy stance, and funding constraints. Our results show that FCs loosened during the pandemic thanks to policy support but started to tighten significantly since mid-2021. Using the inverse probability weighting method over the sample period from 2000 to 2023, we find that a shift from a neutral to a tight FCI regime such as the ongoing episode for most European countries will on average lower output and inflation by 2.2 percent and 0.7 percentage points respectively and increase unemployment by 0.3 percentage points over a three-year horizon.
Book Synopsis Finance in Africa by : European Investment Bank
Download or read book Finance in Africa written by European Investment Bank and published by European Investment Bank. This book was released on 2023-10-11 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Finance in Africa report emphasises the challenges faced by the African banking sector — including the impact of recent shocks, such as the COVID-19 crisis and Russia's invasion of Ukraine — and the importance of gender diversity in business and banking. The report also discusses the need for international support and sustainable finance to advance economic development and climate change in Africa. It provides insights into the financial conditions, banking sector performance, and investment trends in the region. It covers the nature of climate finance flows in Africa and the degree of climate risk on bank balance sheets. With the right measures in place, Africa has the potential to overcome its challenges and unlock its true economic potential.
