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A Comparison Of Stochastic Claim Reserving Methods
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Book Synopsis A Comparison of Stochastic Claims Reserving Methods by : Sukriye Tuysuz
Download or read book A Comparison of Stochastic Claims Reserving Methods written by Sukriye Tuysuz and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In order to preserve their solvency, it is very important for insurance companies to accurately estimate their future required reserves. The aim of this article is to determine reserves by using different stochastic models: 1) distribution-free model (Mack's model), 2) probability distribution based models (Normal, Poisson, Gamma and Inverse Gaussian distributions), and 3) these latter probability based models combined with bootstrapping. To implement these models we used data on life-insurance and non-life insurance. Our findings indicate among distribution based methods, Mack's model (dataset 1 and 2) and Gamma probability distribution based model (dataset 3) are the best model in estimating reserves. The model based on Normal distribution produces the worst results, whatever the dataset. Regarding results of bootstrapping based on probability distribution models, they show that method based on Normal probability distribution (dataset 1 and 3) and ODP distribution (dataset 2) fit better. Our results also indicate that bootstrap method based on Chain-Ladder performs quit similarly than the best fitting probability distribution based bootstrap models. Among all retained models, methods based on bootstrapping present higher good-of-fit.
Book Synopsis A Comparison of Stochastic Claim Reserving Methods by : Eric M. Mann
Download or read book A Comparison of Stochastic Claim Reserving Methods written by Eric M. Mann and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Estimating unpaid liabilities for insurance companies is an extremely important aspect of insurance operations. Consistent underestimation can result in companies requiring more reserves which can lead to lower profits, downgraded credit ratings, and in the worst case scenarios, insurance company insolvency. Consistent overestimation can lead to inefficient capital allocation and a higher overall cost of capital. Due to the importance of these estimates and the variability of these unpaid liabilities, a multitude of methods have been developed to estimate these amounts. This paper compares several actuarial and statistical methods to determine which are relatively better at producing accurate estimates of unpaid liabilities. To begin, the Chain Ladder Method is introduced for those unfamiliar with it. Then a presentation of several Generalized Linear Model (GLM) methods, various Generalized Additive Model (GAM) methods, the Bornhuetter-Ferguson Method, and a Bayesian method that link the Chain Ladder and Bornhuetter-Ferguson methods together are introduced, with all of these methods being in some way connected to the Chain Ladder Method. Historical data from multiple lines of business compiled by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners is used to compare the methods across different loss functions to gain insight as to which methods produce estimates with the minimum loss and to gain a better understanding of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the methods. Key.
Book Synopsis Stochastic Claims Reserving Methods in Insurance by : Mario V. Wüthrich
Download or read book Stochastic Claims Reserving Methods in Insurance written by Mario V. Wüthrich and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-04-30 with total page 438 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Claims reserving is central to the insurance industry. Insurance liabilities depend on a number of different risk factors which need to be predicted accurately. This prediction of risk factors and outstanding loss liabilities is the core for pricing insurance products, determining the profitability of an insurance company and for considering the financial strength (solvency) of the company. Following several high-profile company insolvencies, regulatory requirements have moved towards a risk-adjusted basis which has lead to the Solvency II developments. The key focus in the new regime is that financial companies need to analyze adverse developments in their portfolios. Reserving actuaries now have to not only estimate reserves for the outstanding loss liabilities but also to quantify possible shortfalls in these reserves that may lead to potential losses. Such an analysis requires stochastic modeling of loss liability cash flows and it can only be done within a stochastic framework. Therefore stochastic loss liability modeling and quantifying prediction uncertainties has become standard under the new legal framework for the financial industry. This book covers all the mathematical theory and practical guidance needed in order to adhere to these stochastic techniques. Starting with the basic mathematical methods, working right through to the latest developments relevant for practical applications; readers will find out how to estimate total claims reserves while at the same time predicting errors and uncertainty are quantified. Accompanying datasets demonstrate all the techniques, which are easily implemented in a spreadsheet. A practical and essential guide, this book is a must-read in the light of the new solvency requirements for the whole insurance industry.
Book Synopsis Comparison of Stochastic Reserving Methods by : Jacki Li
Download or read book Comparison of Stochastic Reserving Methods written by Jacki Li and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 83 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Stochastic Loss Reserving Using Generalized Linear Models by : Greg Taylor
Download or read book Stochastic Loss Reserving Using Generalized Linear Models written by Greg Taylor and published by . This book was released on 2016-05-04 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this monograph, authors Greg Taylor and Gráinne McGuire discuss generalized linear models (GLM) for loss reserving, beginning with strong emphasis on the chain ladder. The chain ladder is formulated in a GLM context, as is the statistical distribution of the loss reserve. This structure is then used to test the need for departure from the chain ladder model and to consider natural extensions of the chain ladder model that lend themselves to the GLM framework.
Book Synopsis Micro-Level Stochastic Loss Reserving for General Insurance by : Katrien Antonio
Download or read book Micro-Level Stochastic Loss Reserving for General Insurance written by Katrien Antonio and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To meet future liabilities general insurance companies will set-up reserves. Predicting future cash-flows is essential in this process. Actuarial loss reserving methods will help them to do this in a sound way. The last decennium a vast literature about stochastic loss reserving for the general insurance business has been developed. Apart from few exceptions, all of these papers are based on data aggregated in run-off triangles. However, such an aggregate data set is a summary of an underlying, much more detailed data base that is available to the insurance company. We refer to this data set at individual claim level as "micro-level data." We investigate whether the use of such micro-level claim data can improve the reserving process. A realistic micro-level data set on liability claims (material and injury) from a European insurance company is modeled. Stochastic processes are specified for the various aspects involved in the development of a claim: the time of occurrence, the delay between occurrence and the time of reporting to the company, the occurrence of payments and their size and the final settlement of the claim. These processes are calibrated to the historical individual data of the portfolio and used for the projection of future claims. Through an out-of-sample prediction exercise we show that the micro-level approach provides the actuary with detailed and valuable reserve calculations. A comparison with results from traditional actuarial reserving techniques is included. For our case-study reserve calculations based on the micro-level model are to be preferred; compared to traditional methods, they reflect real outcomes in a more realistic way.
Book Synopsis Prediction Uncertainty in Stochastic Claims Reserving Methods by : Daniel Hakim Alai
Download or read book Prediction Uncertainty in Stochastic Claims Reserving Methods written by Daniel Hakim Alai and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 145 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Stochastic claims reserving for methods which combine information from multiple data sets by : Huijuan Liu
Download or read book Stochastic claims reserving for methods which combine information from multiple data sets written by Huijuan Liu and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Claim Models written by Greg Taylor and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2020-04-15 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This collection of articles addresses the most modern forms of loss reserving methodology: granular models and machine learning models. New methodologies come with questions about their applicability. These questions are discussed in one article, which focuses on the relative merits of granular and machine learning models. Others illustrate applications with real-world data. The examples include neural networks, which, though well known in some disciplines, have previously been limited in the actuarial literature. This volume expands on that literature, with specific attention to their application to loss reserving. For example, one of the articles introduces the application of neural networks of the gated recurrent unit form to the actuarial literature, whereas another uses a penalized neural network. Neural networks are not the only form of machine learning, and two other papers outline applications of gradient boosting and regression trees respectively. Both articles construct loss reserves at the individual claim level so that these models resemble granular models. One of these articles provides a practical application of the model to claim watching, the action of monitoring claim development and anticipating major features. Such watching can be used as an early warning system or for other administrative purposes. Overall, this volume is an extremely useful addition to the libraries of those working at the loss reserving frontier.
Book Synopsis Claims Reserving in General Insurance by : David Hindley
Download or read book Claims Reserving in General Insurance written by David Hindley and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-10-26 with total page 513 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a single comprehensive reference source covering the key material on this subject, and describing both theoretical and practical aspects.
Book Synopsis Using the ODP Bootstrap Model by : Mark R. Shapland
Download or read book Using the ODP Bootstrap Model written by Mark R. Shapland and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Recent Advances In Stochastic Modeling And Data Analysis by : Christos H Skiadas
Download or read book Recent Advances In Stochastic Modeling And Data Analysis written by Christos H Skiadas and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2007-11-16 with total page 669 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents the most recent applied and methodological issues in stochastic modeling and data analysis. The contributions cover various fields such as stochastic processes and applications, data analysis methods and techniques, Bayesian methods, biostatistics, econometrics, sampling, linear and nonlinear models, networks and queues, survival analysis, and time series. The volume presents new results with potential for solving real-life problems and provides novel methods for solving these problems by analyzing the relevant data. The use of recent advances in different fields is emphasized, especially new optimization and statistical methods, data warehouse, data mining and knowledge systems, neural computing, and bioinformatics.
Book Synopsis Stochastic Claims Reserving and Solvency by : Robert Salzmann
Download or read book Stochastic Claims Reserving and Solvency written by Robert Salzmann and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 201 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis An Introduction to Stochastic Modeling by : Howard M. Taylor
Download or read book An Introduction to Stochastic Modeling written by Howard M. Taylor and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2014-05-10 with total page 410 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An Introduction to Stochastic Modeling provides information pertinent to the standard concepts and methods of stochastic modeling. This book presents the rich diversity of applications of stochastic processes in the sciences. Organized into nine chapters, this book begins with an overview of diverse types of stochastic models, which predicts a set of possible outcomes weighed by their likelihoods or probabilities. This text then provides exercises in the applications of simple stochastic analysis to appropriate problems. Other chapters consider the study of general functions of independent, identically distributed, nonnegative random variables representing the successive intervals between renewals. This book discusses as well the numerous examples of Markov branching processes that arise naturally in various scientific disciplines. The final chapter deals with queueing models, which aid the design process by predicting system performance. This book is a valuable resource for students of engineering and management science. Engineers will also find this book useful.
Book Synopsis Three Essays on Bayesian Claims Reserving Methods in General Insurance by : Guangyuan Gao
Download or read book Three Essays on Bayesian Claims Reserving Methods in General Insurance written by Guangyuan Gao and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis investigates the usefulness of Bayesian modelling to claims reserving in general insurance. It can be divided into two parts: Bayesian methodology and Bayesian claims reserving methods. In the first part, we review Bayesian inference and computational methods. Several examples are provided to demonstrate key concepts. Deriving the predictive distribution and incorporating prior information are focused on as two important facets of Bayesian modelling for claims reserving. In the second part, we make the following contributions: 1. Propose a compound model as a stochastic version of the payments per claim incurred method. 2. Introduce the Bayesian basis expansion models and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method to the claims reserving problem. 3. Use copulas to aggregate the doctor benefit and the hospital benefit in the WorkSafe Victoria scheme. All the Bayesian models proposed are first checked by applying them to simulated data. We estimate the liabilities of outstanding claims arising from the weekly benefit, the doctor benefit and the hospital benefit in the WorkSafe Victoria scheme. We compare our results with those from the PwC report. Except for several Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms written for the purpose in R and WinBUGS, we largely rely on Stan, a specialized software environment which applies Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method and variational Bayes.
Book Synopsis Loss Reserving Methods by : J. van Eeghen
Download or read book Loss Reserving Methods written by J. van Eeghen and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 118 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Applications of Reserving Methods for Property and Casualty Insurance in Modeling of Mortality Rates by : Seyeon Kim
Download or read book Applications of Reserving Methods for Property and Casualty Insurance in Modeling of Mortality Rates written by Seyeon Kim and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Chain-Ladder model is the most widely used technique for property and casualty insurance to estimate unpaid claims, including incurred but not reported (IBNR) claims. In this project, inspired by the reserving methods, we first apply a distribution-free method (the Chain-Ladder model) and a distributional method (the lognormal model) to project future mortality rates. Next, to simulate mortality rates for more applications, we also propose corresponding stochastic versions associated with both the lognormal model and a variant of the Chain-Ladder model. Finally, we demonstrate numerical illustrations based on seventy years of mortality data for both genders of the US, the UK, and Japan. To compare the forecasting performances of the five models we implement, we adopt MAE, RMSE, and MSPE as performance metrics. Numerical results show that the variant of the Chain-Ladder model overall performs the best, followed by the Chain-Ladder model and the lognormal model, for a 10-year period.
