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A Comparison Of Stochastic Claim Reserving Methods
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Book Synopsis Stochastic Claims Reserving Methods in Insurance by : Mario V. Wüthrich
Download or read book Stochastic Claims Reserving Methods in Insurance written by Mario V. Wüthrich and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-04-30 with total page 438 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Claims reserving is central to the insurance industry. Insurance liabilities depend on a number of different risk factors which need to be predicted accurately. This prediction of risk factors and outstanding loss liabilities is the core for pricing insurance products, determining the profitability of an insurance company and for considering the financial strength (solvency) of the company. Following several high-profile company insolvencies, regulatory requirements have moved towards a risk-adjusted basis which has lead to the Solvency II developments. The key focus in the new regime is that financial companies need to analyze adverse developments in their portfolios. Reserving actuaries now have to not only estimate reserves for the outstanding loss liabilities but also to quantify possible shortfalls in these reserves that may lead to potential losses. Such an analysis requires stochastic modeling of loss liability cash flows and it can only be done within a stochastic framework. Therefore stochastic loss liability modeling and quantifying prediction uncertainties has become standard under the new legal framework for the financial industry. This book covers all the mathematical theory and practical guidance needed in order to adhere to these stochastic techniques. Starting with the basic mathematical methods, working right through to the latest developments relevant for practical applications; readers will find out how to estimate total claims reserves while at the same time predicting errors and uncertainty are quantified. Accompanying datasets demonstrate all the techniques, which are easily implemented in a spreadsheet. A practical and essential guide, this book is a must-read in the light of the new solvency requirements for the whole insurance industry.
Book Synopsis Stochastic Loss Reserving Using Generalized Linear Models by : Greg Taylor
Download or read book Stochastic Loss Reserving Using Generalized Linear Models written by Greg Taylor and published by . This book was released on 2016-05-04 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this monograph, authors Greg Taylor and Gráinne McGuire discuss generalized linear models (GLM) for loss reserving, beginning with strong emphasis on the chain ladder. The chain ladder is formulated in a GLM context, as is the statistical distribution of the loss reserve. This structure is then used to test the need for departure from the chain ladder model and to consider natural extensions of the chain ladder model that lend themselves to the GLM framework.
Book Synopsis Claims Reserving in General Insurance by : David Hindley
Download or read book Claims Reserving in General Insurance written by David Hindley and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-10-26 with total page 513 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a single comprehensive reference source covering the key material on this subject, and describing both theoretical and practical aspects.
Book Synopsis Using the ODP Bootstrap Model by : Mark R. Shapland
Download or read book Using the ODP Bootstrap Model written by Mark R. Shapland and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Recent Advances In Stochastic Modeling And Data Analysis by : Christos H Skiadas
Download or read book Recent Advances In Stochastic Modeling And Data Analysis written by Christos H Skiadas and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2007-11-16 with total page 669 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents the most recent applied and methodological issues in stochastic modeling and data analysis. The contributions cover various fields such as stochastic processes and applications, data analysis methods and techniques, Bayesian methods, biostatistics, econometrics, sampling, linear and nonlinear models, networks and queues, survival analysis, and time series. The volume presents new results with potential for solving real-life problems and provides novel methods for solving these problems by analyzing the relevant data. The use of recent advances in different fields is emphasized, especially new optimization and statistical methods, data warehouse, data mining and knowledge systems, neural computing, and bioinformatics.
Book Synopsis An Introduction to Stochastic Modeling by : Howard M. Taylor
Download or read book An Introduction to Stochastic Modeling written by Howard M. Taylor and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2014-05-10 with total page 410 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An Introduction to Stochastic Modeling provides information pertinent to the standard concepts and methods of stochastic modeling. This book presents the rich diversity of applications of stochastic processes in the sciences. Organized into nine chapters, this book begins with an overview of diverse types of stochastic models, which predicts a set of possible outcomes weighed by their likelihoods or probabilities. This text then provides exercises in the applications of simple stochastic analysis to appropriate problems. Other chapters consider the study of general functions of independent, identically distributed, nonnegative random variables representing the successive intervals between renewals. This book discusses as well the numerous examples of Markov branching processes that arise naturally in various scientific disciplines. The final chapter deals with queueing models, which aid the design process by predicting system performance. This book is a valuable resource for students of engineering and management science. Engineers will also find this book useful.
Book Synopsis Fundamentals of Actuarial Mathematics by : S. David Promislow
Download or read book Fundamentals of Actuarial Mathematics written by S. David Promislow and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-01-06 with total page 390 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a comprehensive introduction to actuarial mathematics, covering both deterministic and stochastic models of life contingencies, as well as more advanced topics such as risk theory, credibility theory and multi-state models. This new edition includes additional material on credibility theory, continuous time multi-state models, more complex types of contingent insurances, flexible contracts such as universal life, the risk measures VaR and TVaR. Key Features: Covers much of the syllabus material on the modeling examinations of the Society of Actuaries, Canadian Institute of Actuaries and the Casualty Actuarial Society. (SOA-CIA exams MLC and C, CSA exams 3L and 4.) Extensively revised and updated with new material. Orders the topics specifically to facilitate learning. Provides a streamlined approach to actuarial notation. Employs modern computational methods. Contains a variety of exercises, both computational and theoretical, together with answers, enabling use for self-study. An ideal text for students planning for a professional career as actuaries, providing a solid preparation for the modeling examinations of the major North American actuarial associations. Furthermore, this book is highly suitable reference for those wanting a sound introduction to the subject, and for those working in insurance, annuities and pensions.
Download or read book Loss Reserving written by Greg Taylor and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper reviews the development of loss reserving models over the past, classifying them according to an elementary taxonomy. The taxonomic components include (1) the algebraic structure of the model, (2) the form of its parameter estimation, (3) whether or not it is explicitly stochastic, and (4) whether or not its parameters evolve over time. Particular attention is given to one of the higher species of model, involving complex structure, optimal estimation, and evolutionary parameters. A generalisation of the Kalman filter is considered as a basis of adaptive loss reserving in this case. Real life numerical examples are provided.Some implications of this type of data analysis for loss reserving are discussed, with particular reference to the form of data set used. The use of triangular arrays is questioned, and alternatives examined. Again, real life numerical examples are provided.
Book Synopsis Statistical and Probabilistic Methods in Actuarial Science by : Philip J. Boland
Download or read book Statistical and Probabilistic Methods in Actuarial Science written by Philip J. Boland and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2007-03-05 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical and Probabilistic Methods in Actuarial Science covers many of the diverse methods in applied probability and statistics for students aspiring to careers in insurance, actuarial science, and finance. The book builds on students' existing knowledge of probability and statistics by establishing a solid and thorough understanding of
Download or read book Loss Reserving written by Gregory Taylor and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 396 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: All property and casualty insurers are required to carry out loss reserving as a statutory accounting function. Thus, loss reserving is an essential sphere of activity, and one with its own specialized body of knowledge. While few books have been devoted to the topic, the amount of published research literature on loss reserving has almost doubled in size during the last fifteen years. Greg Taylor's book aims to provide a comprehensive, state-of-the-art treatment of loss reserving that reflects contemporary research advances to date. Divided into two parts, the book covers both the conventional techniques widely used in practice, and more specialized loss reserving techniques employing stochastic models. Part I, Deterministic Models, covers very practical issues through the abundant use of numerical examples that fully develop the techniques under consideration. Part II, Stochastic Models, begins with a chapter that sets up the additional theoretical material needed to illustrate stochastic modeling. The remaining chapters in Part II are self-contained, and thus can be approached independently of each other. A special feature of the book is the use throughout of a single real life data set to illustrate the numerical examples and new techniques presented. The data set illustrates most of the difficult situations presented in actuarial practice. This book will meet the needs for a reference work as well as for a textbook on loss reserving.
Book Synopsis Markov Chains and Stochastic Stability by : Sean Meyn
Download or read book Markov Chains and Stochastic Stability written by Sean Meyn and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-04-02 with total page 623 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: New up-to-date edition of this influential classic on Markov chains in general state spaces. Proofs are rigorous and concise, the range of applications is broad and knowledgeable, and key ideas are accessible to practitioners with limited mathematical background. New commentary by Sean Meyn, including updated references, reflects developments since 1996.
Book Synopsis Introduction to Insurance Mathematics by : Annamaria Olivieri
Download or read book Introduction to Insurance Mathematics written by Annamaria Olivieri and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-09-30 with total page 521 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This second edition expands the first chapters, which focus on the approach to risk management issues discussed in the first edition, to offer readers a better understanding of the risk management process and the relevant quantitative phases. In the following chapters the book examines life insurance, non-life insurance and pension plans, presenting the technical and financial aspects of risk transfers and insurance without the use of complex mathematical tools. The book is written in a comprehensible style making it easily accessible to advanced undergraduate and graduate students in Economics, Business and Finance, as well as undergraduate students in Mathematics who intend starting on an actuarial qualification path. With the systematic inclusion of practical topics, professionals will find this text useful when working in insurance and pension related areas, where investments, risk analysis and financial reporting play a major role.
Book Synopsis Non-Life Insurance Mathematics by : Thomas Mikosch
Download or read book Non-Life Insurance Mathematics written by Thomas Mikosch and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-04-21 with total page 435 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Offers a mathematical introduction to non-life insurance and, at the same time, to a multitude of applied stochastic processes. It gives detailed discussions of the fundamental models for claim sizes, claim arrivals, the total claim amount, and their probabilistic properties....The reader gets to know how the underlying probabilistic structures allow one to determine premiums in a portfolio or in an individual policy." --Zentralblatt für Didaktik der Mathematik
Book Synopsis Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models by : Edward P. Herbst
Download or read book Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models written by Edward P. Herbst and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2015-12-29 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models have become one of the workhorses of modern macroeconomics and are extensively used for academic research as well as forecasting and policy analysis at central banks. This book introduces readers to state-of-the-art computational techniques used in the Bayesian analysis of DSGE models. The book covers Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques for linearized DSGE models, novel sequential Monte Carlo methods that can be used for parameter inference, and the estimation of nonlinear DSGE models based on particle filter approximations of the likelihood function. The theoretical foundations of the algorithms are discussed in depth, and detailed empirical applications and numerical illustrations are provided. The book also gives invaluable advice on how to tailor these algorithms to specific applications and assess the accuracy and reliability of the computations. Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models is essential reading for graduate students, academic researchers, and practitioners at policy institutions.
Book Synopsis Actuarial Modelling of Claim Counts by : Michel Denuit
Download or read book Actuarial Modelling of Claim Counts written by Michel Denuit and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2007-07-27 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There are a wide range of variables for actuaries to consider when calculating a motorist’s insurance premium, such as age, gender and type of vehicle. Further to these factors, motorists’ rates are subject to experience rating systems, including credibility mechanisms and Bonus Malus systems (BMSs). Actuarial Modelling of Claim Counts presents a comprehensive treatment of the various experience rating systems and their relationships with risk classification. The authors summarize the most recent developments in the field, presenting ratemaking systems, whilst taking into account exogenous information. The text: Offers the first self-contained, practical approach to a priori and a posteriori ratemaking in motor insurance. Discusses the issues of claim frequency and claim severity, multi-event systems, and the combinations of deductibles and BMSs. Introduces recent developments in actuarial science and exploits the generalised linear model and generalised linear mixed model to achieve risk classification. Presents credibility mechanisms as refinements of commercial BMSs. Provides practical applications with real data sets processed with SAS software. Actuarial Modelling of Claim Counts is essential reading for students in actuarial science, as well as practicing and academic actuaries. It is also ideally suited for professionals involved in the insurance industry, applied mathematicians, quantitative economists, financial engineers and statisticians.
Book Synopsis Introduction to Probability by : Joseph K. Blitzstein
Download or read book Introduction to Probability written by Joseph K. Blitzstein and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2014-07-24 with total page 599 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Developed from celebrated Harvard statistics lectures, Introduction to Probability provides essential language and tools for understanding statistics, randomness, and uncertainty. The book explores a wide variety of applications and examples, ranging from coincidences and paradoxes to Google PageRank and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Additional application areas explored include genetics, medicine, computer science, and information theory. The print book version includes a code that provides free access to an eBook version. The authors present the material in an accessible style and motivate concepts using real-world examples. Throughout, they use stories to uncover connections between the fundamental distributions in statistics and conditioning to reduce complicated problems to manageable pieces. The book includes many intuitive explanations, diagrams, and practice problems. Each chapter ends with a section showing how to perform relevant simulations and calculations in R, a free statistical software environment.
Book Synopsis Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis by : Mr.Andreas A. Jobst
Download or read book Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis written by Mr.Andreas A. Jobst and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-02-27 with total page 93 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent global financial crisis has forced a re-examination of risk transmission in the financial sector and how it affects financial stability. Current macroprudential policy and surveillance (MPS) efforts are aimed establishing a regulatory framework that helps mitigate the risk from systemic linkages with a view towards enhancing the resilience of the financial sector. This paper presents a forward-looking framework ("Systemic CCA") to measure systemic solvency risk based on market-implied expected losses of financial institutions with practical applications for the financial sector risk management and the system-wide capital assessment in top-down stress testing. The suggested approach uses advanced contingent claims analysis (CCA) to generate aggregate estimates of the joint default risk of multiple institutions as a conditional tail expectation using multivariate extreme value theory (EVT). In addition, the framework also helps quantify the individual contributions to systemic risk and contingent liabilities of the financial sector during times of stress.
