Read Books Online and Download eBooks, EPub, PDF, Mobi, Kindle, Text Full Free.
A Bayesian Estimated Model Of Inflationtargeting In South Africa
Download A Bayesian Estimated Model Of Inflationtargeting In South Africa full books in PDF, epub, and Kindle. Read online A Bayesian Estimated Model Of Inflationtargeting In South Africa ebook anywhere anytime directly on your device. Fast Download speed and no annoying ads. We cannot guarantee that every ebooks is available!
Book Synopsis A Bayesian-Estimated Model of InflationTargeting in South Africa by : Thomas Harjes
Download or read book A Bayesian-Estimated Model of InflationTargeting in South Africa written by Thomas Harjes and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates a small dynamic macroeconomic model for the South African economy with Bayesian methods. The model is tailored to assessing the impact of domestic as well as external shocks on inflation within an inflation targeting framework, by incorporating forward-looking behavior of private agents and of the monetary authority. The model is able to display important empirical features of the monetary transmission mechanism that have been found in other studies. It helps to integrate the short-term inflation outlook into a consistent medium-term framework and to design the policy response for various shocks that affect inflation.
Book Synopsis An Estimated DSGE Model for Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries by : Shanaka J. Peiris
Download or read book An Estimated DSGE Model for Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries written by Shanaka J. Peiris and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2007 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper evaluates monetary policy-tradeoffs in low-income countries using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model estimated on data for Mozambique taking into account the sources of major exogenous shocks, and level of financial development. To our knowledge this is a first attempt at estimating a DSGE model for Sub-Saharan Africa excluding South Africa. Our simulations suggests that a exchange rate peg is significantly less successful than inflation targeting at stabilizing the real economy due to higher interest rate volatility, as in the literature for industrial countries and emerging markets.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1589069129 Total Pages :244 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (89 download)
Book Synopsis IMF Staff Papers, Volume 57, No. 2 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book IMF Staff Papers, Volume 57, No. 2 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-06-29 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper introduces a new database of financial reforms covering 91 economies over 1973-2005. It describes the content of the database, the information sources utilized, and the coding rules used to create an index of financial reform. It also compares the database with other measures of financial liberalization, provides descriptive statistics, and discusses some possible applications. The database provides a multifaceted measure of reform, covering seven aspects of financial sector policy. Along each dimension the database provides a graded (rather than a binary) score, and allows for reversals.
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy and Relative Price Shocks in South Africa and Other Inflation Targeters by : Secil Topak
Download or read book Monetary Policy and Relative Price Shocks in South Africa and Other Inflation Targeters written by Secil Topak and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-12-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: When faced with a relative price shock, monetary authorities often aim to contain its second round effects on inflation while accepting first round effects. We analyze the experience of South Africa and other inflation targeters to explore whether and when this policy prescription implies changing the monetary policy stance. Inflation targeting central banks differ on how aggressively they typically react to relative price shocks, reflecting differences in resilience of underlying inflation to such shocks. An examination of individual policy decisions reveals the importance of the broader economic context in framing the responses to relative price shocks.
Book Synopsis Economic Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence Methods by : Tshilidzi Marwala
Download or read book Economic Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence Methods written by Tshilidzi Marwala and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-02 with total page 271 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence Methods examines the application of artificial intelligence methods to model economic data. Traditionally, economic modeling has been modeled in the linear domain where the principles of superposition are valid. The application of artificial intelligence for economic modeling allows for a flexible multi-order non-linear modeling. In addition, game theory has largely been applied in economic modeling. However, the inherent limitation of game theory when dealing with many player games encourages the use of multi-agent systems for modeling economic phenomena. The artificial intelligence techniques used to model economic data include: multi-layer perceptron neural networks radial basis functions support vector machines rough sets genetic algorithm particle swarm optimization simulated annealing multi-agent system incremental learning fuzzy networks Signal processing techniques are explored to analyze economic data, and these techniques are the time domain methods, time-frequency domain methods and fractals dimension approaches. Interesting economic problems such as causality versus correlation, simulating the stock market, modeling and controling inflation, option pricing, modeling economic growth as well as portfolio optimization are examined. The relationship between economic dependency and interstate conflict is explored, and knowledge on how economics is useful to foster peace – and vice versa – is investigated. Economic Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence Methods deals with the issue of causality in the non-linear domain and applies the automatic relevance determination, the evidence framework, Bayesian approach and Granger causality to understand causality and correlation. Economic Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence Methods makes an important contribution to the area of econometrics, and is a valuable source of reference for graduate students, researchers and financial practitioners.
Book Synopsis Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Management In Less Developed Countries by : Mr.Marco Airaudo
Download or read book Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Management In Less Developed Countries written by Mr.Marco Airaudo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-03-08 with total page 65 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze coordination of monetary and exchange rate policy in a two-sector model of a small open economy featuring imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign financial assets. Our central finding is that management of the exchange rate greatly enhances the efficacy of inflation targeting. In a flexible exchange rate system, inflation targeting incurs a high risk of indeterminacy where macroeconomic fluctuations can be driven by self-fulfilling expectations. Moreover, small inflation shocks may escalate into much larger increases in inflation ex post. Both problems disappear when the central bank leans heavily against the wind in a managed float.
Download or read book IMF Staff Papers written by and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 542 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Money in the Middle East and North Africa by : David Cobham
Download or read book Money in the Middle East and North Africa written by David Cobham and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2010-12-07 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Building on the editors’ earlier book, Monetary Policy and Central Banking in the Middle East and North Africa, this book emphasises monetary policy strategies and frameworks. It fills an important gap providing multi-country and single-country studies on monetary policy in post-civil war Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan, the Palestinian Territory and Turkey.
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa by : Andrew Berg
Download or read book Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa written by Andrew Berg and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2018-04-27 with total page 474 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Low-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa present unique monetary policy challenges, from the high share of volatile food in consumption to underdeveloped financial markets. This book draws on the International Monetary Fund's research and practice to uncover how monetary policy in this region currently operates, and what changes should be made.
Book Synopsis On the Optimal Adherence to Money Targets in a New-Keynesian Framework by : Ms.Filiz Unsal
Download or read book On the Optimal Adherence to Money Targets in a New-Keynesian Framework written by Ms.Filiz Unsal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-06-01 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many low-income countries continue to describe their monetary policy framework in terms of targets on monetary aggregates. This contrasts with most modern discussions of monetary policy, and with most practice. We extend the new-Keynesian model to provide a role for “M” in the conduct of monetary policy, and examine the conditions under which some adherence to money targets is optimal. In the spirit of Poole (1970), this role is based on the incompleteness of information available to the central bank, a pervasive issues in these countries. Ex-ante announcements/forecasts for money growth are consistent with a Taylor rule for the relevant short-term interest rate. Ex-post, the policy maker must choose his relative adherence to interest rate and money growth targets. Drawing on the method in Svensson and Woodford (2004), we show that the optimal adherence to ex-ante targets is equivalent to a signal extraction problem where the central bank uses the money market information to update its estimate of the state of the economy. We estimate the model, using Bayesian methods, for Tanzania, Uganda (both de jure money targeters), and Ghana (a de jure inflation targeter), and compare the de facto adherence to targets with the optimal use of money market information in each country.
Book Synopsis Introduction to Modern Bayesian Econometrics by : Tony Lancaster
Download or read book Introduction to Modern Bayesian Econometrics written by Tony Lancaster and published by Wiley-Blackwell. This book was released on 2004-06-28 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Almost two hundred and forty years ago, an English clergyman named Thomas Bayes developed a method to calculate the chances of uncertain events. While his method has extensive applications to the work of applied economists, it is only recent advances in computing that have made it possible to exploit the full power of the Bayesian way of doing applied economics.In this new and expanding area, Tony Lancasters text provides a comprehensive introduction to the Bayesian way of doing applied economics. Using clear explanations and practical illustrations and problems, the text presents innovative, computer-intensive ways for applied economists to use the Bayesian method.The Introduction emphasizes computation and the study of probability distributions by computer sampling, showing how these techniques can provide exact inferences about a wide range of econometric problems. Covering all the standard econometric models, including linear and non-linear regression using cross-sectional, time series, and panel data, it also details causal inference and inference about structural econometric models. In addition, each chapter includes numerical and graphical examples and demonstrates their solutions using the S programming language and Bugs software.
Book Synopsis Inflation Expectations by : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Book Synopsis Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the East African Community by : Mr.Hamid Reza Davoodi
Download or read book Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the East African Community written by Mr.Hamid Reza Davoodi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-02-06 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Do changes in monetary policy affect inflation and output in the East African Community (EAC)? We find that (i) Monetary Transmission Mechanism (MTM) tends to be generally weak when using standard statistical inferences, but somewhat strong when using non-standard inference methods; (ii) when MTM is present, the precise transmission channels and their importance differ across countries; and (iii) reserve money and the policy rate, two frequently used instruments of monetary policy, sometimes move in directions that exert offsetting expansionary and contractionary effects on inflation—posing challenges to harmonization of monetary policies across the EAC and transition to a future East African Monetary Union. The paper offers some suggestions for strengthening the MTM in the EAC.
Book Synopsis Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies by : Jongrim Ha
Download or read book Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies written by Jongrim Ha and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-02-24 with total page 513 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.
Book Synopsis Inflation Targeting by : Ben S. Bernanke
Download or read book Inflation Targeting written by Ben S. Bernanke and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2018-06-05 with total page 393 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How should governments and central banks use monetary policy to create a healthy economy? Traditionally, policymakers have used such strategies as controlling the growth of the money supply or pegging the exchange rate to a stable currency. In recent years a promising new approach has emerged: publicly announcing and pursuing specific targets for the rate of inflation. This book is the first in-depth study of inflation targeting. Combining penetrating theoretical analysis with detailed empirical studies of countries where inflation targeting has been adopted, the authors show that the strategy has clear advantages over traditional policies. They argue that the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank should adopt this strategy, and they make specific proposals for doing so. The book begins by explaining the unique features and advantages of inflation targeting. The authors argue that the simplicity and openness of inflation targeting make it far easier for the public to understand the intent and effects of monetary policy. This strategy also increases policymakers' accountability for inflation performance and can accommodate flexible, even "discretionary," monetary policy actions without sacrificing central banks' credibility. The authors examine how well variants of this approach have worked in nine countries: Germany and Switzerland (which employ a money-focused form of inflation targeting), New Zealand, Canada, the United Kingdom, Sweden, Israel, Spain, and Australia. They show that these countries have typically seen lower inflation, lower inflation expectations, and lower nominal interest rates, and have found that one-time shocks to the price level have less of a "pass-through" effect on inflation. These effects, in turn, are improving the climate for economic growth. The authors warn, however, that the success of inflation targeting depends on operational details, such as how the targets are defined and when they are announced. They also show that inflation targeting is not a panacea that can make inflation perfectly predictable or reduce it without economic costs. Clear, balanced, and authoritative, Inflation Targeting is a groundbreaking study that will have a major impact on the debate over the right monetary strategy for the coming decades. As a unique comparative study of what central banks actually do in different countries around the world, this book will also be invaluable to anyone interested in how economic policy is made.
Book Synopsis Inflation Crises and Long-run Growth by : Michael Bruno
Download or read book Inflation Crises and Long-run Growth written by Michael Bruno and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent literature suggests that long-run averages of growth and inflation are only weakly correlated and such correlation is not robust to exclusion of extreme inflation observations; inclusion of time series panel data has improved matters, but an aggregate parametric approach remains inconclusive. We propose a nonparametric definition of high inflation crises as periods when inflation is above 40 percent annually. Excluding countries with high inflation crises, we find no evidence of any consistent relationship between growth and inflation at any frequency. However, we find that growth falls sharply during discrete high inflation crises, then recovers surprisingly strongly after inflation falls. The fall in growth during crisis and recovery of growth after crisis tend to average out to close to zero (even slightly above zero), hence the lack of a robust cross-section correlation. Our findings could be consistent either with trend stationarity of output, in which inflation crises are purely cyclical phenomena, or with models in which crises have a favorable long-run purgative effect. Our findings do not support the view that reduction of high inflation carries heavy short-to-medium run output costs.
Book Synopsis Assessing Dsge Models with Capital Accumulation and Indeterminacy by : Mr.Vadim Khramov
Download or read book Assessing Dsge Models with Capital Accumulation and Indeterminacy written by Mr.Vadim Khramov and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-03-01 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The simulated results of this paper show that New Keynesian DSGE models with capital accumulation can generate substantial persistencies in the dynamics of the main economic variables, due to the stock nature of capital. Empirical estimates on U.S. data from 1960:I to 2008:I show the response of monetary policy to inflation was almost twice lower than traditionally considered, as capital accumulation creates an additional channel of influence through real interest rates in the production sector. Versions of the model with indeterminacy empirically outperform determinate versions. This paper allows for the reconsideration of previous findings and has significant monetary policy implications.
