A 2019-20 social accounting matrix for Balochistan, Pakistan

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Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 29 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis A 2019-20 social accounting matrix for Balochistan, Pakistan by : Toori, Shafaq

Download or read book A 2019-20 social accounting matrix for Balochistan, Pakistan written by Toori, Shafaq and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2023-01-31 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper documents the different steps followed to construct Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Balochistan for the year 2019-20. More precisely, it describes the estimation methods and the nature of the data used in developing the SAM at the subnational level. The Balochistan SAM includes 13 production activities, 4 factors of production, 4 household groups and rest of the world account, assessing linkages between production, factor income distribution, and households’ incomes and expenditures, and capturing distributional effects. The Balochistan SAM reveals that the shares of services and manufacturing sector remains lower than national average and there is an overwhelming contribution of the livestock and horticulture sector in the subnational economy which has the potential in boosting national livestock and horticulture exports. Further, the consumption pattern in Balochistan supports Engle’s law of consumption showing that with an increase in households’ income, the share of expenditure on food decreases and consumption of non-food items increases. This paper is organized as follows. The first section presents an overview of Balochistan province of Pakistan. The second Section highlights the background of Social Accounting Matrix and its key features. The third section review the literature and various efforts made to develop Pakistan SAM with varying features. The fourth section describes the process and the methodology used to develop SAM. The fifth section presents the structure of Balochistan SAM, accounts, and data sources and elaborates the process and techniques used to balance Balochistan SAM. The sixth section highlights the structure of Balochistan’s economy and an evaluation of value addition. The seventh section underscores the key findings of Balochistan SAM. The final section underlines how the SAM Balochistan can contribute to evidence-based policy making that helps in economic growth and reducing poverty in Balochistan.

Social Accounting Matrices and Multiplier Analysis

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Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN 13 : 0896297837
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (962 download)

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Book Synopsis Social Accounting Matrices and Multiplier Analysis by : Clemens Breisinger

Download or read book Social Accounting Matrices and Multiplier Analysis written by Clemens Breisinger and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2009 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This training guide introduces development practitioners, policy analysts, and students to social accounting matrices (SAMs) and their use in policy analysis. There are already a number of books that explain the System of National Accounts and SAM multipliers-some of these are recommended at the end of this training guide. However, most books tend to be quite technical and move quickly from an introduction to more complex applications. By contrast, this guidebook uses a series of hands-on exercises to gradually introduce SAMs and multiplier analysis. It therefore complements more theoretical SAM and multiplier literature and provides a first step for development practitioners and students wishing to understand the strengths and limitations of these economic tools. It is also useful for policy analysts and researchers embarking on more complex SAM-based methodologies. One such methodology is computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling, for which IFPRI has also developed a series of introductory exercises and a standard modeling framework.To download the exercises, go to www.ifpri.org/publication/social-accounting-matrices-and-multiplier-analysis

Pakistan's Cotton and Textile Economy

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Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN 13 : 0896291677
Total Pages : 119 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (962 download)

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Book Synopsis Pakistan's Cotton and Textile Economy by : Caesar Bucia Cororaton

Download or read book Pakistan's Cotton and Textile Economy written by Caesar Bucia Cororaton and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2008-01-01 with total page 119 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Pakistan's cotton, textile, and apparel industries are key sectors of the nation's economy; their performance can contribute to either a rise or fall in poverty. These vital industries have faced a variety of challenges and opportunities in recent years, including world cotton price instability, liberalization of the multilateral clothing and textile trade, and sharp swings in the Pakistani macroeconomic situation. Using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and drawing on a national survey of Pakistani households, the authors of this report evaluate the consequences of several recent or prospective economic changes on Pakistan's cotton, textile, and apparel industries and poverty levels. The economic changes include an increased inflow of foreign capital, higher world cotton and textile prices, government subsidization of the textile industry, increased productivity in the cotton and textile sectors, and other possible developments. By presenting these scenarios, the report offers policymakers and analysts a guide to anticipating and shaping the future of economic growth and poverty reduction in Pakistan.

The Indus Basin of Pakistan

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Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 0821398741
Total Pages : 188 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (213 download)

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Book Synopsis The Indus Basin of Pakistan by : Winston H. Yu

Download or read book The Indus Basin of Pakistan written by Winston H. Yu and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2013 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study, Indus basin of Pakistan: the impacts of climate risks on water and agriculture was undertaken at a pivotal time in the region. The weak summer monsoon in 2009 created drought conditions throughout the country. This followed an already tenuous situation for many rural households faced with high fuel and fertilizer costs and the impacts of rising global food prices. Then catastrophic monsoon flooding in 2010 affected over 20 million people, devastating their housing, infrastructure, and crops. Damages from this single flood event were estimated at US dollar 10 billion, half of which were losses in the agriculture sector. Notwithstanding the debate as to whether these observed extremes are evidence of climate change, an investigation is needed regarding the extent to which the country is resilient to these shocks. It is thus timely, if not critical, to focus on climate risks for water, agriculture, and food security in the Indus basin of Pakistan.

Cascades of Violence

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Publisher : ANU Press
ISBN 13 : 1760461903
Total Pages : 707 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (64 download)

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Book Synopsis Cascades of Violence by : John Braithwaite

Download or read book Cascades of Violence written by John Braithwaite and published by ANU Press. This book was released on 2018-02-01 with total page 707 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As in the cascading of water, violence and nonviolence can cascade down from commanding heights of power (as in waterfalls), up from powerless peripheries, and can undulate to spread horizontally (flowing from one space to another). As with containing water, conflict cannot be contained without asking crucial questions about which variables might cause it to cascade from the top-down, bottom up and from the middle-out. The book shows how violence cascades from state to state. Empirical research has shown that nations with a neighbor at war are more likely to have a civil war themselves (Sambanis 2001). More importantly in the analysis of this book, war cascades from hot spot to hot spot within and between states (Autesserre 2010, 2014). The key to understanding cascades of hot spots is in the interaction between local and macro cleavages and alliances (Kalyvas 2006). The analysis exposes the folly of asking single-level policy questions like do the benefits and costs of a regime change in Iraq justify an invasion? We must also ask what other violence might cascade from an invasion of Iraq? The cascades concept is widespread in the physical and biological sciences with cascades in geology, particle physics and the globalization of contagion. The past two decades has seen prominent and powerful applications of the cascades idea to the social sciences (Sunstein 1997; Gladwell 2000; Sikkink 2011). In his discussion of ethnic violence, James Rosenau (1990) stressed that the image of turbulence developed by mathematicians and physicists could provide an important basis for understanding the idea of bifurcation and related ideas of complexity, chaos, and turbulence in complex systems. He classified the bifurcated systems in contemporary world politics as the multicentric system and the statecentric system. Each of these affects the others in multiple ways, at multiple levels, and in ways that make events enormously hard to predict (Rosenau 1990, 2006). He replaced the idea of events with cascades to describe the event structures that 'gather momentum, stall, reverse course, and resume anew as their repercussions spread among whole systems and subsystems' (1990: 299). Through a detailed analysis of case studies in South Asia, that built on John Braithwaite's twenty-five year project Peacebuilding Compared, and coding of conflicts in different parts of the globe, we expand Rosenau's concept of global turbulence and images of cascades. In the cascades of violence in South Asia, we demonstrate how micro-events such as localized riots, land-grabbing, pervasive militarization and attempts to assassinate political leaders are linked to large scale macro-events of global politics. We argue in order to prevent future conflicts there is a need to understand the relationships between history, structures and agency; interest, values and politics; global and local factors and alliances.

The Routledge Handbook of Planning Theory

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Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 131744485X
Total Pages : 362 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (174 download)

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Book Synopsis The Routledge Handbook of Planning Theory by : Michael Gunder

Download or read book The Routledge Handbook of Planning Theory written by Michael Gunder and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-08-23 with total page 362 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Routledge Handbook of Planning Theory presents key contemporary themes in planning theory through the views of some of the most innovative thinkers in planning. They introduce and explore their own specialized areas of planning theory, to conceptualize their contemporary positions and to speculate how these positions are likely to evolve and change as new challenges emerge. In a changing and often unpredictable globalized world, planning theory is core to understanding how planning and its practices both function and evolve. As illustrated in this book, planning and its many roles have changed profoundly over the recent decades; so have the theories, both critical and explanatory, about its practices, values and knowledges. In the context of these changes, and to contribute to the development of planning research, this handbook identifies and introduces the cutting edge, and the new emerging trajectories, of contemporary planning theory. The aim is to provide the reader with key insights into not just contemporary planning thought, but potential future directions of both planning theory and planning as a whole. This book is written for an international readership, and includes planning theories that address, or have emerged from, both the global North and parts of the world beyond.

Public–Private Partnership Monitor

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Publisher : Asian Development Bank
ISBN 13 : 9292629417
Total Pages : 231 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (926 download)

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Book Synopsis Public–Private Partnership Monitor by : Asian Development Bank

Download or read book Public–Private Partnership Monitor written by Asian Development Bank and published by Asian Development Bank. This book was released on 2021-07-01 with total page 231 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Government of Pakistan strongly supports public–private partnership (PPP) initiatives. From 1990 to 2019, Pakistan witnessed 108 financially closed PPP projects, with a total investment of approximately $28.4 billion. About 88% of these projects are in the energy sector, attracting more than $24.7billion, followed by investments in the port sector. In early 2021, Parliament approved the amendments to the 2017 PPP Law, enacting the Public Private Partnership Authority (Amendment) Act 2021. This further strengthens the enabling legal and regulatory framework for developing and implementing PPPs, thereby promoting private sector investment in public infrastructure and related services.

Water Resources of Pakistan

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Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030656799
Total Pages : 326 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (36 download)

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Book Synopsis Water Resources of Pakistan by : Muhammad Arif Watto

Download or read book Water Resources of Pakistan written by Muhammad Arif Watto and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-03-25 with total page 326 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents the first comprehensive assessment of water resources in Pakistan including surface water resources and groundwater resources. It gives a detailed overview of issues and challenges related to water which have not been adequately addressed e.g. water resource vulnerability to climate change, groundwater depletion and contamination, and water governance etc. It includes a collection and compilation of unpublished and scattered data from the archives and repositories of various national institutions and organization. Given the literature dearth, this book will not only be a comprehensive assessment of water resources in Pakistan but can also can as outstanding textbook on water resource management in Pakistan. It will attract a great range of readership including water specialists, researchers, undergraduate and post graduate students and policy makers from Pakistan as well as from overseas.

COVID-19: Estimating impact on the economy and poverty in Pakistan: Using SAM Multiplier Model

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Author :
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis COVID-19: Estimating impact on the economy and poverty in Pakistan: Using SAM Multiplier Model by : Moeen, Muhammad Saad

Download or read book COVID-19: Estimating impact on the economy and poverty in Pakistan: Using SAM Multiplier Model written by Moeen, Muhammad Saad and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-01-23 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier analysis has been employed to assess the impacts of COVID-19 on various macroeconomic variables including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and poverty in Pakistan. SAM multiplier models are well-suited to estimate the direct and indirect effects of unanticipated demand-side shocks and short-term fluctuations on various sectors and agents in the economy, such as those caused by the COVID19 pandemic. The results show that Pakistan’s GDP declined by 26.4 percent from mid-March to the end of June 2020 (14 weeks) compared to a non-COVID scenario. Services were hit the hardest, registering losses of 17.6 percent, followed by industry with losses of 6.7 percent. Agriculture turned out to be resilient and remained relatively unhurt, falling by 2.1 percent. All households witnessed a reduction in incomes, but higher-income quartiles appeared to have lost more than lower-income ones. Our approach for economic impact with mitigation measures is to assess the effectiveness of Emergency Response Packages (ERP) by altering the remittances to levels that reflect the magnitude of the support from the government. The total government expenditures were directed towards different kinds of households of PKR 318.6 billion (USD 2.12 billion). This led to a reduction of about USD 3.1 billion in GDP losses, which, compared to the amount spent implied a multiplier of 1.4 in GDP per PKR spent. The national poverty rate soared to 43 percent and 38.7 percent in April and May respectively. The Government’s cash transfers program proved highly effective and led to 11 percent reduction in poverty rate during the pandemic. The recovery scenarios indicate a cumulative GDP loss of USD 11.8 billion and 11.1 USD billion under slow and fast recovery scenarios, respectively, by December 2020. Our estimates show that Pakistan’s annual GDP (at market prices) will register a decline of 4.6 percent in the year 2020 due to negative effects of the pandemic and sluggish economic recovery. Poverty is expected to stabilize at 27.6 percent and 27.4 percent for the two recovery scenarios by December 2020.

Youth Work in the Commonwealth

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Publisher : Commonwealth Secretariat
ISBN 13 : 184929173X
Total Pages : 273 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (492 download)

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Book Synopsis Youth Work in the Commonwealth by : Commonwealth Secretariat

Download or read book Youth Work in the Commonwealth written by Commonwealth Secretariat and published by Commonwealth Secretariat. This book was released on 2017-09-04 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Youth Work in the Commonwealth: A Growth Profession establishes a baseline to inform the planning and implementation of initiatives to professionalise youth work in Commonwealth member countries. The study was conducted in 35 countries in the Africa, Asia, the Caribbean/Americas, Europe and Pacific regions. It catalogues the extent to which the youth work profession is formally recognised in these countries and examines the qualities and rights-based ethos of the various forms of youth work promoted and practised in the Commonwealth. The report aims to help countries learn from good practices, and assess gaps in establishing youth work as a recognised profession in diverse contexts.

Development, Geography, and Economic Theory

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Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262611350
Total Pages : 132 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (113 download)

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Book Synopsis Development, Geography, and Economic Theory by : Paul R. Krugman

Download or read book Development, Geography, and Economic Theory written by Paul R. Krugman and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1997 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Krugman examines the course of economic geography and development theory to shed light on the nature of economic inquiry.

Estimating the economic impacts of the first wave of COVID-19 in Pakistan using a SAM Multiplier Model

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Author :
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Estimating the economic impacts of the first wave of COVID-19 in Pakistan using a SAM Multiplier Model by : Moeen, Muhammad Saad

Download or read book Estimating the economic impacts of the first wave of COVID-19 in Pakistan using a SAM Multiplier Model written by Moeen, Muhammad Saad and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-02-13 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier analysis has been employed to assess the impacts of COVID-19 on various macroeconomic variables including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and poverty in Pakistan. SAM multiplier models are well-suited to estimate the direct and indirect effects of unanticipated demand-side shocks and short-term fluctuations on various sectors and agents in the economy, such as those caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The results show that Pakistan’s GDP declined by 26.4 percent from mid-March to the end of June 2020 (14 weeks) compared to a non-COVID scenario. Services were hit the hardest, registering losses of 17.6 percent, followed by industry with losses of 6.7 percent. Agriculture turned out to be resilient and remained relatively unhurt, falling by 2.1 percent. All households witnessed a reduction in incomes, but higher-income quartiles appeared to have lost more than lower-income ones. Our approach for economic impact with mitigation measures is to assess the effectiveness of Emergency Response Packages (ERP) by altering the remittances to levels that reflect the magnitude of the support from the government. The total government expenditures were directed towards different kinds of households of PKR 318.6 billion (USD 2.12 billion). This led to a reduction of about USD 3.1 billion in GDP losses, which, compared to the amount spent implied a multiplier of 1.4 in GDP per PKR spent. The national poverty rate soared to 43 percent and 38.7 percent in April and May respectively. The Government’s cash transfers program proved highly effective and led to 11 percent reduction in poverty rate during the pandemic. The recovery scenarios indicate a cumulative GDP loss of USD 11.8 billion and 11.1 USD billion under slow and fast recovery scenarios, respectively, by December 2020. Our estimates show that Pakistan’s annual GDP (at market prices) will register a decline of 4.6 percent in the year 2020 due to negative effects of the pandemic and sluggish economic recovery. Poverty is expected to stabilize at 27.6 percent and 27.4 percent for the two recovery scenarios by December 2020.

Participation and Social Assessment

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Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 9780821341865
Total Pages : 362 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (418 download)

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Book Synopsis Participation and Social Assessment by : Jennifer Rietbergen-McCracken

Download or read book Participation and Social Assessment written by Jennifer Rietbergen-McCracken and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1998-01-01 with total page 362 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: World Bank Technical Paper No. 406 (Fisheries Series). In the past six years, the world's fishery sector has reached a turning point with global fish production reaching a plateau of approximately 100 million tons annually. While aquaculture output continued to grow, yields from capture fisheries were uneven and showed increasing signs of stagnation because of widespread overfishing and overcapitalization, ineffective management, deteriorating resource health, declining or flat global harvests, and inefficient economic and trade policies. This paper examines the role of subsidies in fisheries.

The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment

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Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319922882
Total Pages : 627 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (199 download)

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Book Synopsis The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment by : Philippus Wester

Download or read book The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment written by Philippus Wester and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-01-04 with total page 627 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access volume is the first comprehensive assessment of the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region. It comprises important scientific research on the social, economic, and environmental pillars of sustainable mountain development and will serve as a basis for evidence-based decision-making to safeguard the environment and advance people’s well-being. The compiled content is based on the collective knowledge of over 300 leading researchers, experts and policymakers, brought together by the Hindu Kush Himalayan Monitoring and Assessment Programme (HIMAP) under the coordination of the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD). This assessment was conducted between 2013 and 2017 as the first of a series of monitoring and assessment reports, under the guidance of the HIMAP Steering Committee: Eklabya Sharma (ICIMOD), Atiq Raman (Bangladesh), Yuba Raj Khatiwada (Nepal), Linxiu Zhang (China), Surendra Pratap Singh (India), Tandong Yao (China) and David Molden (ICIMOD and Chair of the HIMAP SC). This First HKH Assessment Report consists of 16 chapters, which comprehensively assess the current state of knowledge of the HKH region, increase the understanding of various drivers of change and their impacts, address critical data gaps and develop a set of evidence-based and actionable policy solutions and recommendations. These are linked to nine mountain priorities for the mountains and people of the HKH consistent with the Sustainable Development Goals. This book is a must-read for policy makers, academics and students interested in this important region and an essentially important resource for contributors to global assessments such as the IPCC reports.

Short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economy: Initial results

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Author :
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 10 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economy: Initial results by : Baulch, Bob

Download or read book Short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economy: Initial results written by Baulch, Bob and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-06-29 with total page 10 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Report describes the initial results of modeling undertaken by IFPRI to assess the short-run impacts of the COVID-19 control measures on the Malawian economy. We also consider the short-run effects of external shocks associated with disruptions in trade, investment, and remittance flows on the Malawian economy, as well as two medium-term paths assuming either faster or slower recovery during the remainder of 2020. This analysis has been undertaken in order to inform the policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Malawi and represents a first pass attempt to measure the short-term economic impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economic. It should be noted that, unlike NPC (2020) our estimates of the economic impact of the COVID-19 on the Malawian economy do not extend beyond 2020 and do not try to set a value on loss of life or life-years. They do, however, allow for detailed breakdown of the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 on different sectors and sub-sectors of the Malawian economy.

Population Situation Analysis (PSA)

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Author :
Publisher : UN
ISBN 13 : 9780897149884
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (498 download)

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Book Synopsis Population Situation Analysis (PSA) by :

Download or read book Population Situation Analysis (PSA) written by and published by UN. This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Population Situation Analysis (PSA) provides the basis for an integrated appraisal of the population and reproductive health dynamics and their impacts on poverty, inequality and development. By integrating a micro and macro analytical approach, the population situation analysis clarifies the interactions between individual behaviour and demographic dynamics. The Population Situation Analysis (PSA) responds to demand by countries that international cooperation should promote national capacity-building and recognize national ownership and leadership as prerequisites for development, in accordance with the principles agreed at the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) and the Millennium Declaration. This manual contributes to more efficient evidence-based programming, which relies on increased capacity for data generation, new databases, the consolidation of available evidence and the promotion of the use of hard data. The knowledge generated thr

The short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economy 2020-2021: A SAM multiplier modeling analysis

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Author :
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 29 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis The short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economy 2020-2021: A SAM multiplier modeling analysis by : Baulch, Bob

Download or read book The short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economy 2020-2021: A SAM multiplier modeling analysis written by Baulch, Bob and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-12-21 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This working paper builds on a report which was prepared for the 2020 ECAMA Lakeshore Conference in November 2020. It extends and updates the initial results of modeling undertaken by the International Food Policy Research Institute to assess the short-run impacts of COVID-19 control measures on the Malawian economy. We also consider the short-run effects of external shocks associated with disruptions in trade and tourism, investment, and remittance flows on the Malawian economy, as well as two medium-term paths assuming either faster or slower recovery during the remainder of 2020 and 2021. Using a Social Accounting Matrix multiplier model, we estimate GDP declines by around 16.5 percent during April/May 2020 due to social distancing measures. This leads to around 1.6 million people, mainly in rural areas, temporarily falling into poverty, although urban households suffer the largest income losses. We also model the impact of a faster and a slower lifting of restrictions and external shocks during the remainder of 2020 and 2021. With faster easing of restrictions, cumulative GDP gains turn positive by the third quarter of 2021 under the fast recovery scenario and exceed their pre-COVID-19 levels by US$178 million before the end of 2021. However, under the slow recovery scenario, Malawi’s GDP continues to decline until the end of 2020 before recovering during quarters 1 and 4 of 2021. However, this is not sufficient to wipe out the losses in quarters 2 to 4 of 2020, resulting in cumulative losses under the slow recovery scenario of US$332 million over the two years. Relative to the without COVID-19 scenario, US$937 million of GDP is lost under the fast recovery scenario and US$1,447 million under the slow recovery one. As both the development of the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic situation in Malawi are highly uncertain at the present time, the results reported in this paper should be regarded as interim estimates, which are subject to revision as the underlying health and economic data change.