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Whys And Hows In Uncertainty Modelling
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Book Synopsis Whys and Hows in Uncertainty Modelling by : Isaac Elishakoff
Download or read book Whys and Hows in Uncertainty Modelling written by Isaac Elishakoff and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-05-04 with total page 391 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents, as a single package, three semingly contradictory and often competitive approaches to deal with ever present uncertainty in science and engineering. The book describes, as a unique view, probabilistic, fuzzy sets based and antioptimization based approaches, in order to remedy the present "tower ob Babel” situation, in which researchers in competing fields do not communicate. Integrative approach will attract scientists and engineers alike and provide a strong impetus towards integrative, hybrid approaches.
Book Synopsis Whys and Hows in Uncertainty Modelling by : Isaac Elishakoff
Download or read book Whys and Hows in Uncertainty Modelling written by Isaac Elishakoff and published by . This book was released on 2014-09-01 with total page 404 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers by : National Research Council
Download or read book Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2000-07-31 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report is the summary of a workshop conducted by the National Research Council in order to learn from both forecast makers and forecast users about improvements that can be made in understanding the markets for doctoral scientists and engineers. The workshop commissioned papers examined (1) the history and problems with models of demand and supply for scientists and engineers, (2) objectives and approaches to forecasting models, (3) margins of adjustment that have been neglected in models, especially substitution and quality, (4) the presentation of uncertainty, and (5) whether these forecasts of supply and demand are worthwhile, given all their shortcomings. The focus of the report was to provide guidance to the NSF and to scholars in this area on how models and the forecasts derived from them might be improved, and what role NSF should play in their improvement. In addition, the report examined issues of reporting forecasts to policymakers.
Book Synopsis Analyzing Uncertainty in Civil Engineering by : Wolfgang Fellin
Download or read book Analyzing Uncertainty in Civil Engineering written by Wolfgang Fellin and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005-12-19 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume addresses the issue of uncertainty in civil engineering from design to construction. Failures do occur in practice. Attributing them to a residual system risk or a faulty execution of the project does not properly cover the range of causes. A closer scrutiny of the adopted design, the engineering model, the data, the soil-construction-interaction and the model assumptions is required. Usually, the uncertainties in initial and boundary conditions are abundant. Current engineering practice often leaves these issues aside, despite the fact that new scientific tools have been developed in the past decades that allow a rational description of uncertainties of all kinds, from model uncertainty to data uncertainty. It is the aim of this volume to have a critical look at current engineering risk concepts in order to raise awareness of uncertainty in numerical computations, shortcomings of a strictly probabilistic safety concept, geotechnical models of failure mechanisms and their implications for construction management, execution, and the juristic question of responsibility. In addition, a number of the new procedures for modelling uncertainty are explained. The book is a result of a collaborate effort of mathematicians, engineers and construction managers who met regularly in a post graduate seminar at the University of Innsbruck during the past years.
Book Synopsis Structural Design Optimization Considering Uncertainties by : Yannis Tsompanakis
Download or read book Structural Design Optimization Considering Uncertainties written by Yannis Tsompanakis and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2008-02-07 with total page 670 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainties play a dominant role in the design and optimization of structures and infrastructures. In optimum design of structural systems due to variations of the material, manufacturing variations, variations of the external loads and modelling uncertainty, the parameters of a structure, a structural system and its environment are not given, fi
Book Synopsis Multifaceted Uncertainty Quantification by : Isaac Elishakoff
Download or read book Multifaceted Uncertainty Quantification written by Isaac Elishakoff and published by Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG. This book was released on 2024-09-23 with total page 532 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book exposes three alternative and competing approaches to uncertainty analysis in engineering. It is composed of some essays on various sub-topics like random vibrations, probabilistic reliability, fuzzy-sets-based analysis, unknown-but-bounded variables, stochastic linearization, possible difficulties with stochastic analysis of structures.
Book Synopsis Uncertainty Modelling and Analysis by : Bilal M. Ayyub
Download or read book Uncertainty Modelling and Analysis written by Bilal M. Ayyub and published by Elsevier Publishing Company. This book was released on 1994 with total page 568 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Vital information on machine intelligence and pattern recognition is provided by this publication. In particular, the 31 papers discuss the ways in which uncertainty modelling and analysis are becoming an integral part of system definition and modelling in many fields. Contributions are sourced from an international base of researchers, scientists and engineers working on theoretical developments and diversified applications in engineering systems. The book is divided into two main parts. The first, Uncertainty Models and Measures, includes chapters on theoretical studies and developments carried out on uncertainty (including cognitive uncertainty and how it relates to information and intelligence), information, fuzzy logic, expert systems and neural networks. There are also chapters on modelling uncertainty in the reliability assessment of complex systems, linguistic connectives, the principle of maximum buoyancy, uncertain evidence, inductive learning, convex modelling, new uncertainty measures and information and uncertainty.The larger second part, Applications to Engineering Systems, contains application-oriented studies in fields related to civil, electrical, energy and general engineering systems. The papers cover studies on general uncertainty types in structural engineering, bridges, transmission structures, structural reliability, structural identification, system life cycle analysis, control, construction activities, decision analysis, signal detection, risk management, product quality, military command and control, data bases, long-term projections and predictions and assessment of insurance indices.The book conveys the excitement, advances and promises that all these fields offer to our expanding information-based technological society. It also hopes to stimulate the interest of other researchers around the world who are facing the challenge of new theoretical studies and innovative technological changes.
Book Synopsis Principles of Uncertainty by : Joseph B. Kadane
Download or read book Principles of Uncertainty written by Joseph B. Kadane and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2020-11-25 with total page 525 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for the first edition: Principles of Uncertainty is a profound and mesmerising book on the foundations and principles of subjectivist or behaviouristic Bayesian analysis. ... the book is a pleasure to read. And highly recommended for teaching as it can be used at many different levels. ... A must-read for sure!—Christian Robert, CHANCE It's a lovely book, one that I hope will be widely adopted as a course textbook. —Michael Jordan, University of California, Berkeley, USA Like the prize-winning first edition, Principles of Uncertainty, Second Edition is an accessible, comprehensive text on the theory of Bayesian Statistics written in an appealing, inviting style, and packed with interesting examples. It presents an introduction to the subjective Bayesian approach which has played a pivotal role in game theory, economics, and the recent boom in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. This new edition has been updated throughout and features new material on Nonparametric Bayesian Methods, the Dirichlet distribution, a simple proof of the central limit theorem, and new problems. Key Features: First edition won the 2011 DeGroot Prize Well-written introduction to theory of Bayesian statistics Each of the introductory chapters begins by introducing one new concept or assumption Uses "just-in-time mathematics"—the introduction to mathematical ideas just before they are applied
Book Synopsis Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis in Engineering and the Sciences by : Bilal M. Ayyub
Download or read book Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis in Engineering and the Sciences written by Bilal M. Ayyub and published by Chapman and Hall/CRC. This book was released on 2006-05-25 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Engineers and scientists often need to solve complex problems with incomplete information resources, necessitating a proper treatment of uncertainty and a reliance on expert opinions. Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis in Engineering and the Sciences prepares current and future analysts and practitioners to understand the fundamentals of knowledge and ignorance, how to model and analyze uncertainty, and how to select appropriate analytical tools for particular problems. This volume covers primary components of ignorance and their impact on practice and decision making. It provides an overview of the current state of uncertainty modeling and analysis, and reviews emerging theories while emphasizing practical applications in science and engineering. The book introduces fundamental concepts of classical, fuzzy, and rough sets, probability, Bayesian methods, interval analysis, fuzzy arithmetic, interval probabilities, evidence theory, open-world models, sequences, and possibility theory. The authors present these methods to meet the needs of practitioners in many fields, emphasizing the practical use, limitations, advantages, and disadvantages of the methods.
Book Synopsis Have We All Gone Mad? Why groupthink is rising and how to stop it by : Jerome Booth
Download or read book Have We All Gone Mad? Why groupthink is rising and how to stop it written by Jerome Booth and published by Biteback Publishing. This book was released on 2022-11-29 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "With refreshingly clear-sighted analysis, Jerome Booth spells out how political, financial and social groupthink has damaged Britain – and, crucially, how we can tackle it. Highly recommended." – Liam Halligan, Daily Telegraph "Most of the worst political decisions of recent years were made when all the mainstream politicians thought the same thing and no one challenged them. Jerome Booth wisely analyses why this situation happens so often and what can be done about it. Every politician and every decision-maker should read this book." – Lord Frost, former Cabinet Office minister "It is a long time since I read a book with which I agreed so comprehensively." – Lord Lilley, former Secretary of State *** We like to think of ourselves as rational, but human beings are fundamentally irrational creatures – and nowhere is that more apparent than in the fug of groupthink we see around us, from the boardroom to social media. Of the various forms of collective irrationality, groupthink is particularly dangerous. It involves adherence to a faulty consensus, often has a binary moral dimension (one is seen as either virtuous or evil) and is sustained through fear to challenge. Counter-intuitively, the most intelligent and erudite amongst us are particularly susceptible, and when groupthink takes hold, vigorous efforts are made to shut down debate and to bully and punish transgressors. As a result, toleration, liberalism, history, reason and science are under threat. Mass groupthink amongst both the elite and the masses affects millions of people. It has led to financial mismanagement leading up to the 2008 crisis and beyond; poor decision-making at the onset of Covid-19; exaggerated, unchallenged claims which have motivated nonsensical policies; and distortions in academia and journalism. In this remarkable and prescient book, Dr Jerome Booth investigates why some of us have abandoned reason in favour of trite memes, intolerance and hatred. Have we all gone mad? Or can we identify the patterns and causes of what is happening and try to stop it?
Book Synopsis Why Quality is Important and How It Applies in Diverse Business and Social Environments, Volume I by : Paul Hayes
Download or read book Why Quality is Important and How It Applies in Diverse Business and Social Environments, Volume I written by Paul Hayes and published by Business Expert Press. This book was released on 2020-12-24 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These two volumes are about understanding—why—and application—how—with the aim of providing guidance and introduction to both. Quality is the consistent achievement of the user’s expectations of a product or service. The achievement needs to be “The right thing, right first time, every time, in time.” Beginning with manufacturing and services, it also includes professional, personal, and spiritual dimensions. Variation does not sit happily with consistency and skill in handling risk and opportunity requires competence in the use of statistics, probability, and uncertainty; and needs to complement the critically essential soft dimensions of quality and the overarching and underpinning primacy of personal relationships. There are no clear boundaries to the applicability of quality and the related processes and procedures expressed in management systems, and this is why it matters so much to show “how it applies in diverse business and social environments.” Increasingly, the acceptability of boundaries that are drawn depends on their effect on the user and the achievement of quality, and the latest standards on quality management are explicit on this key point. Quality is everyone’s business, and there is no single professional discipline that can properly express this. Insights, knowledge, experience, best practice, tools, and techniques need to be shared across all kinds of organizational and professional boundaries, and there is no departmental boundary that can stand apart from the organization-wide commitment to quality achievement.
Book Synopsis Global Economic Uncertainties and Exchange Rate Shocks by : Eliphas Ndou
Download or read book Global Economic Uncertainties and Exchange Rate Shocks written by Eliphas Ndou and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-01-08 with total page 509 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines the macroeconomic and regulatory impact of domestic and international shocks on the South African economy resulting from the 2009 financial crisis. It also assesses the impact of the US economy’s eventual recovery from the crisis and the prospect of higher US interest rates in future. Told in three parts, the book explores associations between economic growth, policy uncertainty and the key domestic and international transmission channels, and transmission effects, of global financial regulatory and domestic macro-economic uncertainties on subdued and volatile economic recovery, financial channels, lending rate margins, and credit growth. The book concludes by extending its focus to the role of US monetary policy, capital flows and rand/US dollar volatility on the South African economy.
Book Synopsis Rationality In An Uncertain World by : Nick Chater
Download or read book Rationality In An Uncertain World written by Nick Chater and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2004-08-02 with total page 386 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book brings together an influential sequence of papers that argue for a radical re-conceptualisation of the psychology of inference, and of cognitive science more generally. The papers demonstrate that the thesis that logic provides the basis of human inference is central to much cognitive science, although the commitment to this view is often implicit. They then note that almost all human inference is uncertain, whereas logic is the calculus of certain inference. This mismatch means that logic is not the appropriate model for human thought. Oaksford and Chater's argument draws on research in computer science, artificial intelligence and philosophy of science, in addition to experimental psychology. The authors propose that probability theory, the calculus of uncertain inference, provides a more appropriate model for human thought. They show how a probabilistic account can provide detailed explanations of experimental data on Wason's selection task, which many have viewed as providing a paradigmatic demonstration of human irrationality. Oaksford and Chater show that people's behaviour appears irrational only from a logical point of view, whereas it is entirely rational from a probabilistic perspective. The shift to a probabilistic framework for human inference has significant implications for the psychology of reasoning, cognitive science more generally, and forour picture of ourselves as rational agents.
Book Synopsis The Uncertainty Analysis of Model Results by : Eduard Hofer
Download or read book The Uncertainty Analysis of Model Results written by Eduard Hofer and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-05-02 with total page 355 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a practical guide to the uncertainty analysis of computer model applications. Used in many areas, such as engineering, ecology and economics, computer models are subject to various uncertainties at the level of model formulations, parameter values and input data. Naturally, it would be advantageous to know the combined effect of these uncertainties on the model results as well as whether the state of knowledge should be improved in order to reduce the uncertainty of the results most effectively. The book supports decision-makers, model developers and users in their argumentation for an uncertainty analysis and assists them in the interpretation of the analysis results.
Book Synopsis Mathematical Modelling by : C Haines
Download or read book Mathematical Modelling written by C Haines and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2007-08-01 with total page 511 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book continues the ICTMA tradition of influencing teaching and learning in the application of mathematical modelling. Each chapter shows how real life problems can be discussed during university lectures, in school classrooms and industrial research. International experts contribute their knowledge and experience by providing analysis, insight and comment whilst tackling large and complex problems by applying mathematical modelling. This book covers the proceedings from the Twelfth International Conference on the Teaching of Mathematical Modelling and Applications. - Covers the proceedings from the Twelfth International Conference on the Teaching of Mathematical Modelling and Applications - Continues the ICTMA tradition of influencing teaching and learning in the application of mathematical modelling - Shows how real life problems can be discussed during university lectures, in school classrooms and industrial research
Book Synopsis Environmental Modelling by : Keith Beven
Download or read book Environmental Modelling written by Keith Beven and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2010-02-25 with total page 329 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty in the predictions of science when applied to the environment is an issue of great current relevance in relation to the impacts of climate change, protecting against natural and man-made disasters, pollutant transport and sustainable resource management. However, it is often ignored both by scientists and decision makers, or interpreted as a conflict or disagreement between scientists. This is not necessarily the case, the scientists might well agree, but their predictions would still be uncertain and knowledge of that uncertainty might be important in decision making. Environmental Modelling: An Uncertain Future? introduces students, scientists and decision makers to: the different concepts and techniques of uncertainty estimation in environmental prediction the philosophical background to different concepts of uncertainty the constraint of uncertainties by the collection of observations and data assimilation in real-time forecasting techniques for decision making under uncertainty. This book will be relevant to environmental modellers, practitioners and decision makers in hydrology, hydraulics, ecology, meteorology and oceanography, geomorphology, geochemistry, soil science, pollutant transport and climate change. A companion website for the book can be found at www.uncertain-future.org.uk
Book Synopsis Optimization And Anti-optimization Of Structures Under Uncertainty by : Isaac E Elishakoff
Download or read book Optimization And Anti-optimization Of Structures Under Uncertainty written by Isaac E Elishakoff and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2010-03-08 with total page 425 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The volume presents a collaboration between internationally recognized experts on anti-optimization and structural optimization, and summarizes various novel ideas, methodologies and results studied over 20 years. The book vividly demonstrates how the concept of uncertainty should be incorporated in a rigorous manner during the process of designing real-world structures. The necessity of anti-optimization approach is first demonstrated, then the anti-optimization techniques are applied to static, dynamic and buckling problems, thus covering the broadest possible set of applications. Finally, anti-optimization is fully utilized by a combination of structural optimization to produce the optimal design considering the worst-case scenario. This is currently the only book that covers the combination of optimization and anti-optimization. It shows how various optimization techniques are used in the novel anti-optimization technique, and how the structural optimization can be exponentially enhanced by incorporating the concept of worst-case scenario, thereby increasing the safety of the structures designed in various fields of engineering./a
