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Why Cant You Just Give Me The Number An Executives Guide To Using Probabilistic Thinking To Manage Risk And To Make Better Decisions
Download Why Cant You Just Give Me The Number An Executives Guide To Using Probabilistic Thinking To Manage Risk And To Make Better Decisions full books in PDF, epub, and Kindle. Read online Why Cant You Just Give Me The Number An Executives Guide To Using Probabilistic Thinking To Manage Risk And To Make Better Decisions ebook anywhere anytime directly on your device. Fast Download speed and no annoying ads. We cannot guarantee that every ebooks is available!
Book Synopsis Why Can't You Just Give Me the Number? by : Patrick Leach
Download or read book Why Can't You Just Give Me the Number? written by Patrick Leach and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 197 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision making 101 for executives. A solid overview of the key decision analysis concepts sprinkled with pearls of wisdom and wry humor. Explains the language of risk, uncertainty, and decision making.
Book Synopsis Why Can't You Just Give Me The Number?: An Executive's Guide to Using Probabilistic Thinking to Manage Risk and to Make Better Decisions by : Patrick Leach
Download or read book Why Can't You Just Give Me The Number?: An Executive's Guide to Using Probabilistic Thinking to Manage Risk and to Make Better Decisions written by Patrick Leach and published by . This book was released on 2014-06-15 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Making Risky and Important Decisions by : Ruth Murray-Webster
Download or read book Making Risky and Important Decisions written by Ruth Murray-Webster and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2021-06-11 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers a practical insight to leaders who need to make good decisions in risky and important situations. The authors describe a process for making risk-intelligent decisions, explaining complex ideas simply, and mapping a route through the myriad interrelated influences when groups make decisions that matter. The approach puts the decision maker—you—at the center and explains how you can think and act differently to make better decisions more of the time. The book shows how to Determine the appropriate level of risk Make decisions in uncertain and turbulent conditions Understand how risks are perceived to identify them accurately Develop new behaviors to improve decision-making Making Risky and Important Decisions: A Leader’s Guide builds on earlier ground-breaking publications from these two recognized thought leaders. Their first book together, Understanding and Managing Risk Attitude, brought together the language of risk and risk-taking with the language of emotional intelligence and emotional literacy. Managing Group Risk Attitude followed, and focused on decision-making groups, creating new insights and frameworks. Both books are positioned as specialist textbooks, despite their relevance to real-world situations. A Short Guide to Risk Appetite brought together the concepts of risk appetite and risk attitude into one place for the first time, cutting through confusing terminology and confused thinking to create a practical way of understanding "how much risk is too much risk." This latest installment from Ruth Murray-Webster and David Hillson takes the breadth of their previous work, adds new insights and thinking, and distills it into a highly usable guide for hard-pressed leaders.
Book Synopsis Managing Risk & Opportunity - Project Controls by : Planning Planet
Download or read book Managing Risk & Opportunity - Project Controls written by Planning Planet and published by GCATI. This book was released on with total page 110 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Managing Risk and Opportunity Module is to introduce the tools, techniques and methodologies associated with risk and opportunity, that have been identified as being “best tested and proven” practices and which have been found to work on “most projects, most of the time”; provide a logical or rational sequence showing when those tools or techniques would normally and customarily be used and in selected instances, show how to use those tools/techniques and/or where to find additional information on how to use or apply them.
Book Synopsis Business Case Analysis with R by : Robert D. Brown III
Download or read book Business Case Analysis with R written by Robert D. Brown III and published by Apress. This book was released on 2018-03-01 with total page 287 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This tutorial teaches you how to use the statistical programming language R to develop a business case simulation and analysis. It presents a methodology for conducting business case analysis that minimizes decision delay by focusing stakeholders on what matters most and suggests pathways for minimizing the risk in strategic and capital allocation decisions. Business case analysis, often conducted in spreadsheets, exposes decision makers to additional risks that arise just from the use of the spreadsheet environment. R has become one of the most widely used tools for reproducible quantitative analysis, and analysts fluent in this language are in high demand. The R language, traditionally used for statistical analysis, provides a more explicit, flexible, and extensible environment than spreadsheets for conducting business case analysis. The main tutorial follows the case in which a chemical manufacturing company considers constructing a chemical reactor and production facility to bring a new compound to market. There are numerous uncertainties and risks involved, including the possibility that a competitor brings a similar product online. The company must determine the value of making the decision to move forward and where they might prioritize their attention to make a more informed and robust decision. While the example used is a chemical company, the analysis structure it presents can be applied to just about any business decision, from IT projects to new product development to commercial real estate. The supporting tutorials include the perspective of the founder of a professional service firm who wants to grow his business and a member of a strategic planning group in a biomedical device company who wants to know how much to budget in order to refine the quality of information about critical uncertainties that might affect the value of a chosen product development pathway. What You’ll Learn Set up a business case abstraction in an influence diagram to communicate the essence of the problem to other stakeholders Model the inherent uncertainties in the problem with Monte Carlo simulation using the R language Communicate the results graphically Draw appropriate insights from the results Develop creative decision strategies for thorough opportunity cost analysis Calculate the value of information on critical uncertainties between competing decision strategies to set the budget for deeper data analysis Construct appropriate information to satisfy the parameters for the Monte Carlo simulation when little or no empirical data are available Who This Book Is For Financial analysts, data practitioners, and risk/business professionals; also appropriate for graduate level finance, business, or data science students
Book Synopsis Principles of Risk Analysis by : Charles Yoe
Download or read book Principles of Risk Analysis written by Charles Yoe and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2011-09-15 with total page 586 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know—and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don’t know. Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty lays out the tasks of risk analysis in a straightforward, conceptual manner that is consistent with the risk models of all communities of practice. It answers the questions "what is risk analysis?" and "how do I do this?" Distilling the common principles of the many risk tribes and dialects into serviceable definitions and narratives, the book provides a foundation for the practice of risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty for professionals from all walks of life. In the first part of the book, readers learn the language, models, and concepts of risk analysis and its three component tasks—risk management, assessment, and communication. The second part of the book supplies the tools, techniques, and methodologies to help readers apply the principles. From problem identification and brainstorming to model building and choosing a probability distribution, the author walks readers through the how-to of risk assessment. Addressing the critical task of risk communication, he explains how to present the results of assessments and how to develop effective messages. The book’s simple and straightforward style—based on the author’s decades of experience as a risk analyst, trainer, and educator—strips away the mysterious aura that often accompanies risk analysis. It describes the principles in a manner that empowers readers to begin the practice of risk analysis, to better understand and use the models and practice of their individual fields, and to gain access to the rich and sophisticated professional literature on risk analysis. Additional exercises as well as a free student version of the Palisade Corporation DecisionTools® Suite software and files used in the preparation of this book are available for download.
Book Synopsis Multi-objective Decision Analysis by : Clinton W. Brownley
Download or read book Multi-objective Decision Analysis written by Clinton W. Brownley and published by Business Expert Press. This book was released on 2013-03-28 with total page 167 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Whether managing strategy, operations or products, knowing how to make the best decision in a complex, uncertain business environment is difficult. You might be faced with multiple, competing objectives, which means making trade-offs. To complicate matters, any uncertainty makes it hard to explicitly understand how different objectives will impact potential outcomes. This book will help you face these problems. It provides a decision analysis framework implemented as a simple spreadsheet tool. This multi-objective decision analysis framework helps you to measure trade-offs among objectives and incorporate uncertainties and risk preferences. With this book, you will be able to identify what information is needed to make a decision, define how that information should be combined, and, finally, provide quantifiable evidence to clearly communicate and justify the decision. The process involves minimal overhead and is perfect for busy professionals who need a simple, structured process for making, tracking, and communicating decisions. This process makes decision making more efficient by focusing only on information and factors that are well-defined, measureable, and relevant to the decision at hand. The framework requires clear characterization of a decision, ensuring that it can be traced and is consistent with the intended objectives and organizational values. Using this structured decision-making framework, anyone can consistently make better decisions to gain competitive and strategic advantage.
Book Synopsis Petroleum Economics and Engineering, Third Edition by : Hussein K. Abdel-Aal
Download or read book Petroleum Economics and Engineering, Third Edition written by Hussein K. Abdel-Aal and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2013-12-14 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explains how to apply economic analysis to the evaluation of engineering challenges in the petroleum industry. Discussion progresses from an introduction to the industry, through principles and techniques of engineering economics, to the application of economic methods. Packed with real-world examples and case studies demonstrating how to calculate rate of return, discounted cash flow, payout period, and more, Petroleum Economics and Engineering, Third Edition assists petroleum engineers, chemical engineers, production workers, management, and executives in sound economic decision-making regarding the design, manufacture, and operation of oil and gas plants, equipment, and processes. The fully revised third edition is updated to reflect key advancements in petroleum technology and expanded to include chapters on middle stream operations, known as surface petroleum operations (SPO), and natural gas processing and fractionation. By looking globally at the hydrocarbon industry, the improved text offers the reader a more complete picture of the petroleum sector, which includes the global processes of exploration, production, refining, and transportation.
Book Synopsis Economic Analysis of Oil and Gas Engineering Operations by : Hussein K. Abdel-Aal
Download or read book Economic Analysis of Oil and Gas Engineering Operations written by Hussein K. Abdel-Aal and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2021-02-25 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Engineers seek solutions to problems, and the economic viability of each potential solution is normally considered along with the technical merits. This is typically true for the petroleum sector, which includes the global processes of exploration, production, refining, and transportation. Decisions on an investment in any oil or gas field development are made on the basis of its value, which is judged by a combination of a number of economic indicators. Economic Analysis of Oil and Gas Engineering Operations focuses on economic treatment of petroleum engineering operations and serves as a helpful resource for making practical and profitable decisions in oil and gas field development. Reflects major changes over the past decade or so in the oil and gas industry Provides thorough coverage of the use of economic analysis techniques in decision-making in petroleum-related projects Features real-world cases and applications of economic analysis of various engineering problems encountered in petroleum operations Includes principles applicable to other engineering disciplines This work will be of value to practicing engineers and industry professionals, managers, and executives working in the petroleum industry who have the responsibility of planning and decision-making, as well as advanced students in petroleum and chemical engineering studying engineering economics, petroleum economics and policy, project evaluation, and plant design.
Book Synopsis Upstream Petroleum Fiscal and Valuation Modeling in Excel by : Ken Kasriel
Download or read book Upstream Petroleum Fiscal and Valuation Modeling in Excel written by Ken Kasriel and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-06-06 with total page 389 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Please contact the authors at [email protected] for details of how to access the trial version of Crystal Ball, as well as the Excel and other files which are *not* part of the e-book version download. "This is a book no deal team should be without. It is a must for those involved in upstream oil and gas transactions, planning, budgeting, investment appraisal and portfolio management. Its step–by–step approach cuts through complexity, making it comprehensive and understandable by a wide range of users with a wide range of abilities. It can be used as a textbook, an introductory primer or as a handbook that you can dip in and out of or read cover to cover." —Michael Lynch-Bell, Senior Advisor, Oil & Gas, Ernst & Young LLP; ex-officio Chairman, UN Expert Group on Resource Classification In the upstream petroleum industry, it is the value of post–tax cashflows which matters most to companies, governments, investors, lenders, analysts, and advisors. Calculating these cashflows and understanding their “behavior,” however, is challenging, as the industry’s specialized fiscal systems can be complex, jargon–laden, and sometimes seem to be a “world of their own”. Upstream Petroleum Fiscal and Valuation Modeling in Excel: A Worked Examples Approach demystifies fiscal analysis which, unlike disciplines such as Earth sciences and engineering, can be learned from a book. Written in plain English for laymen and for experienced practitioners alike, it is a reader–friendly, clear, practical, step–by–step hands–on guide for both reference and self–paced study. The book does not catalogue the 100+ different petroleum fiscal regimes in use at the time of writing. Rather, drawing on the authors’ combined 48 years’ experience, it takes a more timeless, generic treatment, by covering the most common variants of royalties, taxation, production sharing arrangements, bonuses and abandonment funding , through a dual approach: first, showing how to model them in Excel , and then providing interactive exercises to prompt (and answer) questions that analyze impacts on cashflows. In addition to the main text, the book consists of over 120 Excel files (ranging from modular examples to full models) in Excel 2007 and 2003 formats; over 400 pages of supplementary PDF files; VBA features to enhance model functionality; and an introduction to risk modeling with exercises for the included trial version of Oracle’s Crystal Ball software. It offers both a wealth of content and models equal to or surpassing what is available from fiscal modeling courses costing several times more; and greater insights into underlying calculations than commercially available “black box” fiscal software. New US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rules planned for 2013 will force petroleum companies to disclose more fiscal information on an individual country basis. This will make it more important than ever for analysts to understand how to model oil and gas terms and the potential impacts of the disclosed government payments on future oil and gas company profitability. Due to the heavy use of graphics and cross references used in this particular text, some readers might find that the printed book offers a more optimal reading experience than certain e-formats particularly with the Kindle eMobi format.
Book Synopsis Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era by : John E. Silvia
Download or read book Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era written by John E. Silvia and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2017-01-04 with total page 382 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reality-based modeling for today's unique economic recovery Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era presents a more realistic approach to modeling, using direct statistical applications to address the characteristics and trends central to current market behaviors. This book's unique focus on the reality of today's markets makes it an invaluable resource for students and practitioners seeking a comprehensive guide to more accurate forecasting. While most books treat the economy as if it were in a vacuum, building models around idealized or perception-biased behaviors, this book deals with the economy as it currently stands—in a state of recovery, limited by financial constraints, imperfect information, and lags and disparities in price movements. The authors identify how these characteristics impact various markets' behaviors, and quantify those behaviors using SAS as the primary statistical tool. Today's economy bears a number of unique attributes that usual modeling methods fail to consider. This book describes how to approach modeling based on real-world, observable data in order to make better-informed decisions in today's markets. Discover the three economic characteristics with the greatest impact on various markets Create economic models that mirror the current post-recession reality Adopt statistical methods that identify and adapt to structural breaks and lags Factor real-world imperfections into modeling for more accurate forecasting The past few years have shown a clear demarcation between policymakers' forecasts and actual outcomes. As the dust settles on the Great Recession, after-effects linger—and impact our current recovery in ways that diverge from past experience and theoretical expectations. Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era provides comprehensive guidance grounded in reality for today's economic decision-makers.
Book Synopsis Decision Analysis for Managers, Second Edition by : David Charlesworth
Download or read book Decision Analysis for Managers, Second Edition written by David Charlesworth and published by Business Expert Press. This book was released on 2017-04-11 with total page 133 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Everybody has to make decisions-they are unavoidable. However, we receive little or no education or training on how to make decisions. Business decisions are difficult: which people to hire, which product lines or facilities to expand, which proposal to accept, how much R&D to invest in, which environmental projects are high priority, etc. Personal decisions (college, getting married, changing jobs, buying a house, retiring, dealing with a health problem) can be even more difficult. This book gives you the tools you need toÉClarify and reach alignment on goals and objectives; Understand trade-offs associated with reaching those objectives; Develop and examine alternatives; Systematically analyze the effects of risk and uncertainty, and; Maximize the chances of achieving your goals. Success (getting what you want) depends on luck and good decision-making. You can't control your luck, but you can maximize your odds by making the best possible decisions, and this book gets you there. The author organizes and presents otherwise formal decision-making tools in an intuitively understandable fashion. The presentation is informal, but the concepts and tools are research-based and formally accepted. Whether you are a business owner, a manager or team leader, or a senior professional, these tools will help both your personal and your business life.
Book Synopsis The Great Mental Models, Volume 1 by : Shane Parrish
Download or read book The Great Mental Models, Volume 1 written by Shane Parrish and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2024-10-15 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discover the essential thinking tools you’ve been missing with The Great Mental Models series by Shane Parrish, New York Times bestselling author and the mind behind the acclaimed Farnam Street blog and “The Knowledge Project” podcast. This first book in the series is your guide to learning the crucial thinking tools nobody ever taught you. Time and time again, great thinkers such as Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett have credited their success to mental models–representations of how something works that can scale onto other fields. Mastering a small number of mental models enables you to rapidly grasp new information, identify patterns others miss, and avoid the common mistakes that hold people back. The Great Mental Models: Volume 1, General Thinking Concepts shows you how making a few tiny changes in the way you think can deliver big results. Drawing on examples from history, business, art, and science, this book details nine of the most versatile, all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making and productivity. This book will teach you how to: Avoid blind spots when looking at problems. Find non-obvious solutions. Anticipate and achieve desired outcomes. Play to your strengths, avoid your weaknesses, … and more. The Great Mental Models series demystifies once elusive concepts and illuminates rich knowledge that traditional education overlooks. This series is the most comprehensive and accessible guide on using mental models to better understand our world, solve problems, and gain an advantage.
Download or read book The Scout Mindset written by Julia Galef and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2021-04-13 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "...an engaging and enlightening account from which we all can benefit."—The Wall Street Journal A better way to combat knee-jerk biases and make smarter decisions, from Julia Galef, the acclaimed expert on rational decision-making. When it comes to what we believe, humans see what they want to see. In other words, we have what Julia Galef calls a "soldier" mindset. From tribalism and wishful thinking, to rationalizing in our personal lives and everything in between, we are driven to defend the ideas we most want to believe—and shoot down those we don't. But if we want to get things right more often, argues Galef, we should train ourselves to have a "scout" mindset. Unlike the soldier, a scout's goal isn't to defend one side over the other. It's to go out, survey the territory, and come back with as accurate a map as possible. Regardless of what they hope to be the case, above all, the scout wants to know what's actually true. In The Scout Mindset, Galef shows that what makes scouts better at getting things right isn't that they're smarter or more knowledgeable than everyone else. It's a handful of emotional skills, habits, and ways of looking at the world—which anyone can learn. With fascinating examples ranging from how to survive being stranded in the middle of the ocean, to how Jeff Bezos avoids overconfidence, to how superforecasters outperform CIA operatives, to Reddit threads and modern partisan politics, Galef explores why our brains deceive us and what we can do to change the way we think.
Download or read book Up to Our Eyeballs written by José García and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the increasingly volatile American economy, where close to 800 billion dollars is owed in credit card debt and where there has been a steady decline in work-related benefits like health insurance and pensions, consumer debt has become a fact of life. Credit cards are the new safety net being used by desperate middle and low income families to manage essential expenses such as groceries and medical bills. Here is a troubling examination of the causes and consequences of the explosive rise in American consumer debt.
Download or read book EPA Journal written by and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Risk Budgeting written by Neil D. Pearson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-08-31 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Institutionelle Anleger, Fonds- und Portfoliomanager müssen Risiken eingehen, wenn sie Spitzengewinne erzielen wollen. Die Frage ist nur wieviel Risiko. "Risk Budgeting: Portfolio Problem Solving with VaR" liefert die Antwort auf diese Frage. Beim Konzept des Risk Budgeting geht es um Risiko- und Kapitalallokation auf der Grundlage erwarteter Erträge und Risiken, mit dem Ziel, höhere Renditen zu erwirtschaften im Rahmen eines vordefinierten Gesamtrisikoniveaus. Mit Hilfe quantitativer Methoden zur Risikomessung, einschließlich der Value at Risk-Methode läßt sich das Risiko ermitteln und bewerten. Value at Risk (VaR) ist ein Verfahren zur Risikobewertung, das Banken ursprünglich zur Messung und Begrenzung von Marktpreisrisiken eingesetzt haben. Heute wird die VaR-Methode auch verstärkt im Risikomanagement eingesetzt. Dieses Buch bietet eine fundierte Einführung in die VaR-Methode sowie in Verfahren zur Risikomessung bei Extremereignissen und Krisenszenarien (Stress Testing). Darüber hinaus erklärt es, wie man mit Hilfe des Risk Budgeting ein effizienteres Portfoliomanagement erreicht. "Risk Budgeting: Portfolio Problem Solving with VaR" ist das einzige Buch auf dem Markt, das Risk Budgeting und VaR - zwei brandaktuelle Themen im Portfoliomanagement - speziell für institutionelle Investment- und Portfolio-Manager aufbereitet. Eine unverzichtbare Lektüre.
