What Are The Potential Causes Of Incorrect Predictions Of Tropical Cyclone Intensification In Medium Range Ensemble Forecasts

Download What Are The Potential Causes Of Incorrect Predictions Of Tropical Cyclone Intensification In Medium Range Ensemble Forecasts full books in PDF, epub, and Kindle. Read online What Are The Potential Causes Of Incorrect Predictions Of Tropical Cyclone Intensification In Medium Range Ensemble Forecasts ebook anywhere anytime directly on your device. Fast Download speed and no annoying ads. We cannot guarantee that every ebooks is available!

What are the potential causes of incorrect predictions of tropical cyclone intensification in medium-range ensemble forecasts?

Author : Nico Bauer
Publisher : diplom.de
ISBN 13 : 3959936133
Total Pages : 104 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (599 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis What are the potential causes of incorrect predictions of tropical cyclone intensification in medium-range ensemble forecasts? by : Nico Bauer

Download or read book What are the potential causes of incorrect predictions of tropical cyclone intensification in medium-range ensemble forecasts? written by Nico Bauer and published by diplom.de. This book was released on 2022-05-12 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tropical cyclones (TC) are the most destructive weather phenomena in the world. These storm systems are common in large parts of highly populated tropics and subtropics with favorable atmospheric conditions. Society’s vulnerability to them and the associated annual economic costs have risen steadily: mean worldwide insured losses averaged 75 billion USD per year in the 10 years between 2009 and 2019. Cinco et al. (2016) analyzed TC data and observed that in the period from 1951 to 2013, an average of 19.4 TCs entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility in the Western North Pacific, and nine TCs moved over the islands. Consequently, the Philippines have the highest number of landfalling storms and the highest rate of severe TC worldwide. In turn, the TCs that move over the islands into the South China Sea frequently affect the coast of Vietnam. Through a spatial assessment of TC vulnerability, Nguyen et al. (2019) have demonstrated a high or very high susceptibility in most parts of coastal Vietnam. The most extreme event over the WNP in the last century was Typhoon Haiyan, which caused 6,300 deaths and widespread economic and socioeconomic damage. This significant susceptibility implies the high importance of improving weather forecast models for greater predictive capability. In recent decades, the quality of forecasting tropical cyclone tracks has increased steadily at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast and other numerical weather prediction centers. Nevertheless, intensity predictions still present more significant challenges.

The Dynamics and Predictability of Tropical Cyclones

Author : Jason A. Sippel
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (69 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis The Dynamics and Predictability of Tropical Cyclones by : Jason A. Sippel

Download or read book The Dynamics and Predictability of Tropical Cyclones written by Jason A. Sippel and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Through methodology unique for tropical cyclones in peer-reviewed literature, this study explores how the dynamics of moist convection affects the predictability of tropical cyclogenesis. Mesoscale models are used to perform short-range ensemble forecasts of a non-developing disturbance in 2004 and Hurricane Humberto in 2007; both of these cases were highly unpredictable. Taking advantage of discrepancies between ensemble members in short-range ensemble forecasts, statistical correlation is used to pinpoint sources of error in forecasts of tropical cyclone formation and intensification. Despite significant differences in methodology, storm environment and development, it is found in both situations that high convective instability (CAPE) and mid-level moisture are two of the most important factors for genesis. In the gulf low, differences in CAPE are related to variance in quasi-geostrophic lift, and in Humberto the differences are related to the degree of interaction between the cyclone and a nearby front. Regardless of the source of CAPE variance, higher CAPE and mid-level moisture combine to yield more active initial convection and more numerous and strong vortical hot towers (VHTs), which incrementally contribute to a stronger vortex. In both cases, strength differences between ensemble members are further amplified by differences in convection that are related to oceanic heat fluxes. Eventually the WISHE mechanism results in even larger ensemble spread, and in the case of Humberto, uncertainty related to the time of landfall drives spread even higher. It is also shown that initial condition differences much smaller than current analysis error can ultimately control whether or not a tropical cyclone forms. Furthermore, even smaller differences govern how the initial vortex is built. Differences in maximum winds and/or vorticity vary nonlinearly with initial condition differences and depend on the timing and intensity of small mesoscale features such as VHTs and cold pools. Finally, the strong sensitivity to initial condition differences in both cases exemplifies the inherent uncertainties in hurricane intensity prediction. This study illustrates the need for implementing advanced data analysis schemes and ensemble prediction systems to provide more accurate and event-dependent probabilistic forecasts.

The Remote Impacts of a Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone

Author : Craig E. Jakus
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 164 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis The Remote Impacts of a Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone by : Craig E. Jakus

Download or read book The Remote Impacts of a Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone written by Craig E. Jakus and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The short term teleconnections arising from an individual tropical cyclone in tne western Pacific (typhoon Seth, October 1994) were examined using an operational global data assimilation system and numerical weather prediction model. During the data assimilation, the model's initial conditions were modified using a tropical cyclone bogusing procedure that either maintained or eliminated the individual storm. These different initial conditions were used in six extended-range forecasts of about 3.5 weeks duration. Three of these forecasts simulated the atmosphere with tne tropical cyclone and three without the storm. The ensemble average differences between the forecasts with the storm and those without it were used to infer the global teleconnection response to the tropical cyclone. This response was dominated by a strong and persistent Rossby wave train that extended from east Asia across the North Pacific into North America. This wave train was initiated when an anticyclonic circulation formed near Japan as the tropical cyclone approached the east Asian jet. The anticyclone formation was primarily the result of two factors: (1) vortex stretching; and (2) absolute vorticity advection as divergent outflow from the tropical cyclone crossed the large absolute vorticity gradient of the east Asian jet. The wave response was quasi-stationary. However, the basic wave train (i.e., the teleconnection pattern) developed within a week due to a relatively rapid eastward propagation of wave energy across the North Pacific and North America. In regions of strong jet flow, this propagation tended to parallel the flow while in regions of weaker flow, the propagation had stronger poleward or equatorward components. The wave train intensified well after the tropical cyclone and the initial wave formation process had dissipated.

The Predictability of Extratropical Transition and of Its Impact on the Downstream Flow

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 39 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis The Predictability of Extratropical Transition and of Its Impact on the Downstream Flow by :

Download or read book The Predictability of Extratropical Transition and of Its Impact on the Downstream Flow written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this project we investigated the basic mechanisms that determine the predictability of tropical cyclones undergoing extratropical transition (ET) and of their impact on the downstream flow. The analysis of ensemble forecasts for five ET cases showed that uncertainty is associated with the location and amplitude of a characteristic upper-level trough-ridge-trough pattern consisting of the trough that interacts with the tropical cyclone, a ridge directly downstream and a second trough downstream of the ridge. Experiments for Typhoon Tokage (2004) with the ensemble prediction system of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts showed that targeted perturbations led to increased spread around and shortly after ET time whereas the spread due to stochastic physics increased at a later time as the influence of the targeted perturbations decreased. Idealized modelling combined with potential vorticity inversion was used to quantify the mechanisms responsible for this variability. Furthermore, dropsonde data in the vicinity of tropical cyclones were shown to reduce the medium-range forecast error for the downstream flow.

Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction

Author : Andrew Robertson
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 012811715X
Total Pages : 588 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (281 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction by : Andrew Robertson

Download or read book Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction written by Andrew Robertson and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-10-19 with total page 588 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field. Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages

Diagnosing the Downstream Impact of Extratropical Transition Using Multimodel Operational Ensemble Prediction Systems

Author : Julia Henriette Keller
Publisher : KIT Scientific Publishing
ISBN 13 : 3866449844
Total Pages : 272 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (664 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Diagnosing the Downstream Impact of Extratropical Transition Using Multimodel Operational Ensemble Prediction Systems by : Julia Henriette Keller

Download or read book Diagnosing the Downstream Impact of Extratropical Transition Using Multimodel Operational Ensemble Prediction Systems written by Julia Henriette Keller and published by KIT Scientific Publishing. This book was released on 2014-10-16 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study examines the predictability during the extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones using the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE), a multimodel ensemble prediction system (EPS). It is shown that TIGGE exhibits more possible development scenarios than a single EPS. By analysing the eddy kinetic energy budget of forecast scenarios for two ET cases, extracted from an EPS, the impact of the transitioning tropical cyclones on the midlatitude flow is studied in detail.

The Use of Satellite Microwave Rainfall Measurements to Predict Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity

Author : Derek A. West
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 224 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis The Use of Satellite Microwave Rainfall Measurements to Predict Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity by : Derek A. West

Download or read book The Use of Satellite Microwave Rainfall Measurements to Predict Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity written by Derek A. West and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This proposed study examines the potential use of satellite passive microwave rainfall measurements derived from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) radiometers onboard the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) constellation to improve eastern North Pacific Ocean tropical cyclone intensity change forecasting techniques. Relationships between parameters obtained from an operational SSM/I-based rainfall measuring algorithm and 12-, 24-, 36-, 48-, 60- and 72-hour intensity changes from best track data records are examined in an effort to identify statistically significant predictors of intensity change. Correlations between rainfall parameters and intensity change are analyzed using tropical cyclone data from three years, 1992 to 1994. Stratifications based upon tropical cyclone intensity, rate of intensity change, climatology, translation, landfall and synoptic-scale environmental forcing variables are studied to understand factors that may affect a statistical relationship between rainfall parameters and intensity change. The predictive skill of statistically significant rainfall parameters is assessed by using independent tropical cyclone data from another year, 1995. In addition, case studies on individual tropical cyclones are conducted to gain insight on predictive performance and operational implementation issues.

The National Meteorological Center

Author : National Meteorological Center (U.S.)
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 32 pages
Book Rating : 4.M/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis The National Meteorological Center by : National Meteorological Center (U.S.)

Download or read book The National Meteorological Center written by National Meteorological Center (U.S.) and published by . This book was released on 1963 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

An Experiment in Statistical Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change

Author : Robert T. Merrill
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis An Experiment in Statistical Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change by : Robert T. Merrill

Download or read book An Experiment in Statistical Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change written by Robert T. Merrill and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Contribution of Symmetrization to the Intensification of Tropical Cyclones

Author : Henry A. Miller
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781423549895
Total Pages : 69 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (498 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis The Contribution of Symmetrization to the Intensification of Tropical Cyclones by : Henry A. Miller

Download or read book The Contribution of Symmetrization to the Intensification of Tropical Cyclones written by Henry A. Miller and published by . This book was released on 2001-12-01 with total page 69 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Operational ability to forecast tropical cyclone motion is much better than the ability to forecast intensity change. Several recent works have studied the mechanisms that bring about the symmetrization of various types of asymmetries in tropical cyclones. This study was conducted to add to that knowledge by examining the transfers of kinetic energy between scales and how those energy transfers alter the wind structure of the cyclone. Adding to the understanding of how this process can alter winds is a step toward increasing ability to forecast these changes. A non-divergent barotropic spectral model was used to integrate annular bands of enhanced potential vorticity, simulating hurricane eyes, with varying degrees of offset from the center of the vortex. Offset monopoles of vorticity, simulating asymmetric convection in tropical storms, were also integrated. As discovered by previous researchers, these unstable eyes broke down into a series of mesovortices, which merged and eventually relaxed to monopolar or tripolar final states. The offset monopoles formed spiral bands and became symmetric as well. Kinetic energy was transferred from the mean flow to the asymmetries as mesovortices formed and then transferred back to the mean flow as symmetrization occurred. These energy transfers occurred very quickly. As energy was transferred from asymmetry to mean flow, the azimuthally averaged wind increased in a band of about 70 km from the center of the vortex, even though the maximum wind decreased, Azimuthally averaged wind in the monopole cases also increased, but the change was confined to a smaller radial band near the radius of maximum wind.

Tropical cyclone intensity and structure changes: Theories, observations, numerical modeling and forecasting

Author : Eric Hendricks
Publisher : Frontiers Media SA
ISBN 13 : 2832534554
Total Pages : 260 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (325 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Tropical cyclone intensity and structure changes: Theories, observations, numerical modeling and forecasting by : Eric Hendricks

Download or read book Tropical cyclone intensity and structure changes: Theories, observations, numerical modeling and forecasting written by Eric Hendricks and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2023-09-29 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Predictability and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones on Daily to Interannual Time Scales

Author : James Ian Belanger
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (825 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Predictability and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones on Daily to Interannual Time Scales by : James Ian Belanger

Download or read book Predictability and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones on Daily to Interannual Time Scales written by James Ian Belanger and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The spatial and temporal complexity of tropical cyclones (TCs) raises a number of scientific questions regarding their genesis, movement, intensification, and variability. In this dissertation, the principal goal is to determine the current state of predictability for each of these processes. To quantify the current extent of tropical cyclone predictability, we assess probabilistic forecasts from the most advanced global numerical weather prediction system to date, the ECMWF Variable Resolution Ensemble Prediction System (VarEPS). Using a new false alarm clustering technique to maximize the utility of the VarEPS, the ensemble system is shown to provide well-calibrated probabilistic forecasts for TC genesis through a lead-time of one week, and pregenesis track forecasts with similar skill compared to the VarEPS's postgenesis track forecasts. To quantify the predictability of TCs on intraseasonal time scales, forecasts from the ECMWF Monthly Forecast System (ECMFS) are examined for the North Atlantic Ocean. From this assessment, dynamically based forecasts from the ECMFS provide forecast skill exceeding climatology out to weeks three and four for portions of the southern Gulf of Mexico, western Caribbean and the Main Development Region. Forecast skill in these regions is traced to the model's ability to capture correctly the variability in deep-layer vertical wind shear, the relative frequency of easterly waves moving through these regions, and the intraseasonal modulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. :On interannual time scales, the predictability of TCs is examined by considering their relationship with tropical Atlantic easterly waves. First, a set of easterly wave climatologies for the CFS-R, ERA-Interim, ERA-40, and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis are developed using a new easterly wave-tracking algorithm. From the reanalysis-derived climatologies, a moderately positive and statistically significant relationship is seen with tropical Atlantic TCs. In relation to large-scale climate modes, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) exhibit the strongest positive covariability with Atlantic easterly wave frequency. Besides changes in the number of easterly waves, the intensification efficiency of easterly waves has also been evaluated. These findings offer a plausible physical explanation for the recent increase in the number of NATL TCs, as it has been concomitant with an increasing trend in both the number of tropical Atlantic easterly waves and intensification efficiency. :The last component of this dissertation examines how the historical variability in U.S. landfalling TCs has impacted the annual TC tornado record. To reconcile the inhomogeneous, historical tornado record, two statistical tornado models, developed from a set of a priori predictors for TC tornado formation, are used to reconstruct the TC tornado climatology. While the synthetic TC tornado record reflects decadal scale variations in association with the AMO, a comparison of the current warm phase of the AMO with the previous warm phase period shows that the median number of tornadoes per Gulf TC landfall has significantly increased. This change likely reflects the increase in median TC size (by 35%) of Gulf landfalling TCs along with an increased frequency of large TCs at landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Origin, Movement and Intensity Characteristics Based on Data Compositing Techniques

Author : W. M. Gray
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 140 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (883 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Tropical Cyclone Origin, Movement and Intensity Characteristics Based on Data Compositing Techniques by : W. M. Gray

Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Origin, Movement and Intensity Characteristics Based on Data Compositing Techniques written by W. M. Gray and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Up-to-date results of recent tropical cyclone research at Colorado State University are presented. Particular attention is paid to new findings which impact on tropical cyclone analysis and forecasting efforts. Observational studies using large amounts of composited rawinsonde, satellite, and aircraft flight data have been performed to analyze global aspects of tropical cyclone occurrences, physical processes of tropical cyclone genesis, tropical cyclone intensity change, environmental factors influencing tropical cyclone turning motion 24-36 hours before the turn takes place, tropical cyclone intensity determination from upper tropospheric reconnaissance, and the diurnal variations of vertical motion in tropical weather systems. (Author).

Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Part 4: Sources of Large Track Errors by Dynamical Models

Download Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Part 4: Sources of Large Track Errors by Dynamical Models PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 58 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (946 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Part 4: Sources of Large Track Errors by Dynamical Models by :

Download or read book Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Part 4: Sources of Large Track Errors by Dynamical Models written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Application of Discriminant Analysis to a Tropical Cyclone Intensification Forecasting Algorithm

Author : Bernard John Cook
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 36 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (22 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Application of Discriminant Analysis to a Tropical Cyclone Intensification Forecasting Algorithm by : Bernard John Cook

Download or read book Application of Discriminant Analysis to a Tropical Cyclone Intensification Forecasting Algorithm written by Bernard John Cook and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A stepwise screening discriminant analysis is used to develop an algorithm for forecasting tropical cyclone intensification. Some potential predictors used in the analysis are derived from FNOC (Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center) zonal wind analyses. Other potential predictors considered are simple climatological parameters and persistence of intensification. The potential predictors are screened by a stepwise discriminant analysis program to determine which significantly discriminate between three (intensifying, filling, and neither) intensification categories. The best discriminators are then used as predictors in an intensification forecasting algorithm. The algorithm is developed and tested on Western Pacific tropical cyclone data from the years 1974-82. In addition to the independent test, stability of the algorithm is investigated and a test is conducted to compare forecasts produced by the algorithm with forecasts made by JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) and with forecasts of persistence of intensification. The algorithm shows skill relative to persistence and compares favorably with the official forecasts, although most of the differences between the scores are not significant. For this data set, JTWC did not forecast tropical cyclone intensification significantly better than the derived algorithm or persistence. (Author).

Improving Tropical Cyclone Forecasts from Formation to Maturity Using Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation

Author : Christopher Hartman
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (144 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Improving Tropical Cyclone Forecasts from Formation to Maturity Using Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation by : Christopher Hartman

Download or read book Improving Tropical Cyclone Forecasts from Formation to Maturity Using Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation written by Christopher Hartman and published by . This book was released on 2024 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The studies comprising this dissertation use a state-of-the-art ensemble-based data assimilation (DA) system developed at The Pennsylvania State University to improve forecasts of tropical cyclones (TCs) during two of the least predictable stages of their lifecycle: formation (i.e., tropical cyclogenesis; hereafter TCG) and rapid intensification (RI). These improvements are realized by assimilating infrared (IR) brightness temperatures (BTs) observed by geostationary satellites under both clear and cloudy conditions. The all-sky IR BTs assimilated by the DA system help to constrain the initial moisture estimates within the core of the developing system in analyses via the strong ensemble correlations that exist between moisture content and simulated BTs. It is shown that forecasts initialized from these analyses exhibit a more realistic convective evolution, which translates to improved prediction of TCG and RI. For the case of TCG, the assimilation of upper-tropospheric water vapor channel BTs observed by the Meteosat-10 Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) instrument improves the timing of TCG in forecasts of Hurricane Irma (2017). In an experiment that withheld the BTs, TCG was premature by at least 24 hours due to an overestimation of the spatial coverage of deep convection within the African Easterly Wave (AEW) that Irma formed from. Spurious convection led to stronger low-level convergence and the earlier spin-up of a low-level meso-[beta]-scale (i.e., 20 -- 200 km) vortex. This was ameliorated by assimilating all-sky IR BTs. Furthermore, the substantial impact of initial moisture uncertainty within the incipient disturbance is revealed by initializing ensemble forecasts with only the initial moisture perturbations retained. Relative to an ensemble with initial perturbations to all variables, at least half of the intensity forecast uncertainty is attributed to initial moisture uncertainty within the AEW. These results show the importance of targeting the incipient disturbance with high spatio-temporal water vapor observations for ingestion into DA systems. For the case of RI, the assimilation of upper-tropospheric water vapor channel BTs observed by the GOES-16 Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) led to significant improvements in the intensity forecasts of Hurricane Dorian (2019) at lead times of 48 hours and longer. These improvements are shown to be a result of better analyzed cloud fields as well as more intense initial primary and secondary circulations. Despite these improvements, the vortex exhibited an unrealistically broad structure that was fine-tuned by the additional assimilation of tail Doppler radar (TDR) radial velocities collected by NOAA P-3 aircraft. The simultaneous assimilation of all-sky IR BTs and radar observations therefore resulted in realistic forecasts of the track, structure, and RI of Dorian. These results underscore the potential of TDR observations to complement the benefits gained by assimilating all-sky IR BTs.

Tropical Cyclone Dynamics, Prediction, and Detection

Author : Anthony Lupo
Publisher : BoD – Books on Demand
ISBN 13 : 9535127020
Total Pages : 260 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (351 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Tropical Cyclone Dynamics, Prediction, and Detection by : Anthony Lupo

Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Dynamics, Prediction, and Detection written by Anthony Lupo and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2016-11-02 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today, tropical cyclones continue to bring destruction, as well as disruption, to societies that are exposed to their threat. This book represents a compilation of recent cutting-edge research on tropical cyclones and their impacts from researchers at many institutions around the world. This book contains new looks at tropical cyclone dynamics, the use of satellite-based remote sensing in the detection and climatology of tropical cyclones, and the modeling and prediction of tropical cyclones as well as their associated impacts. This book would make a nice addition to any course on tropical meteorology highlighting topics of interest in recent research on this topic.