Variable Selection And Forecasting In High Dimensional Linear Regressions With Structural Breaks

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Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing

Author : Rob Hyndman
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3540719180
Total Pages : 362 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (47 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing by : Rob Hyndman

Download or read book Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing written by Rob Hyndman and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-06-19 with total page 362 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Exponential smoothing methods have been around since the 1950s, and are still the most popular forecasting methods used in business and industry. However, a modeling framework incorporating stochastic models, likelihood calculation, prediction intervals and procedures for model selection, was not developed until recently. This book brings together all of the important new results on the state space framework for exponential smoothing. It will be of interest to people wanting to apply the methods in their own area of interest as well as for researchers wanting to take the ideas in new directions. Part 1 provides an introduction to exponential smoothing and the underlying models. The essential details are given in Part 2, which also provide links to the most important papers in the literature. More advanced topics are covered in Part 3, including the mathematical properties of the models and extensions of the models for specific problems. Applications to particular domains are discussed in Part 4.

Large-dimensional Panel Data Econometrics: Testing, Estimation And Structural Changes

Author : Feng Qu
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 9811220794
Total Pages : 167 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (112 download)

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Book Synopsis Large-dimensional Panel Data Econometrics: Testing, Estimation And Structural Changes by : Feng Qu

Download or read book Large-dimensional Panel Data Econometrics: Testing, Estimation And Structural Changes written by Feng Qu and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2020-08-24 with total page 167 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book aims to fill the gap between panel data econometrics textbooks, and the latest development on 'big data', especially large-dimensional panel data econometrics. It introduces important research questions in large panels, including testing for cross-sectional dependence, estimation of factor-augmented panel data models, structural breaks in panels and group patterns in panels. To tackle these high dimensional issues, some techniques used in Machine Learning approaches are also illustrated. Moreover, the Monte Carlo experiments, and empirical examples are also utilised to show how to implement these new inference methods. Large-Dimensional Panel Data Econometrics: Testing, Estimation and Structural Changes also introduces new research questions and results in recent literature in this field.

Essays in Honor of Cheng Hsiao

Author : Dek Terrell
Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1789739594
Total Pages : 427 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (897 download)

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Book Synopsis Essays in Honor of Cheng Hsiao by : Dek Terrell

Download or read book Essays in Honor of Cheng Hsiao written by Dek Terrell and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2020-04-15 with total page 427 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Including contributions spanning a variety of theoretical and applied topics in econometrics, this volume of Advances in Econometrics is published in honour of Cheng Hsiao.

Introduction to High-Dimensional Statistics

Author : Christophe Giraud
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1000408353
Total Pages : 410 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (4 download)

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Book Synopsis Introduction to High-Dimensional Statistics by : Christophe Giraud

Download or read book Introduction to High-Dimensional Statistics written by Christophe Giraud and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2021-08-25 with total page 410 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for the first edition: "[This book] succeeds singularly at providing a structured introduction to this active field of research. ... it is arguably the most accessible overview yet published of the mathematical ideas and principles that one needs to master to enter the field of high-dimensional statistics. ... recommended to anyone interested in the main results of current research in high-dimensional statistics as well as anyone interested in acquiring the core mathematical skills to enter this area of research." —Journal of the American Statistical Association Introduction to High-Dimensional Statistics, Second Edition preserves the philosophy of the first edition: to be a concise guide for students and researchers discovering the area and interested in the mathematics involved. The main concepts and ideas are presented in simple settings, avoiding thereby unessential technicalities. High-dimensional statistics is a fast-evolving field, and much progress has been made on a large variety of topics, providing new insights and methods. Offering a succinct presentation of the mathematical foundations of high-dimensional statistics, this new edition: Offers revised chapters from the previous edition, with the inclusion of many additional materials on some important topics, including compress sensing, estimation with convex constraints, the slope estimator, simultaneously low-rank and row-sparse linear regression, or aggregation of a continuous set of estimators. Introduces three new chapters on iterative algorithms, clustering, and minimax lower bounds. Provides enhanced appendices, minimax lower-bounds mainly with the addition of the Davis-Kahan perturbation bound and of two simple versions of the Hanson-Wright concentration inequality. Covers cutting-edge statistical methods including model selection, sparsity and the Lasso, iterative hard thresholding, aggregation, support vector machines, and learning theory. Provides detailed exercises at the end of every chapter with collaborative solutions on a wiki site. Illustrates concepts with simple but clear practical examples.

Linear Models in Statistics

Author : Alvin C. Rencher
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470192607
Total Pages : 690 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (71 download)

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Book Synopsis Linear Models in Statistics by : Alvin C. Rencher

Download or read book Linear Models in Statistics written by Alvin C. Rencher and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-01-07 with total page 690 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The essential introduction to the theory and application of linear models—now in a valuable new edition Since most advanced statistical tools are generalizations of the linear model, it is neces-sary to first master the linear model in order to move forward to more advanced concepts. The linear model remains the main tool of the applied statistician and is central to the training of any statistician regardless of whether the focus is applied or theoretical. This completely revised and updated new edition successfully develops the basic theory of linear models for regression, analysis of variance, analysis of covariance, and linear mixed models. Recent advances in the methodology related to linear mixed models, generalized linear models, and the Bayesian linear model are also addressed. Linear Models in Statistics, Second Edition includes full coverage of advanced topics, such as mixed and generalized linear models, Bayesian linear models, two-way models with empty cells, geometry of least squares, vector-matrix calculus, simultaneous inference, and logistic and nonlinear regression. Algebraic, geometrical, frequentist, and Bayesian approaches to both the inference of linear models and the analysis of variance are also illustrated. Through the expansion of relevant material and the inclusion of the latest technological developments in the field, this book provides readers with the theoretical foundation to correctly interpret computer software output as well as effectively use, customize, and understand linear models. This modern Second Edition features: New chapters on Bayesian linear models as well as random and mixed linear models Expanded discussion of two-way models with empty cells Additional sections on the geometry of least squares Updated coverage of simultaneous inference The book is complemented with easy-to-read proofs, real data sets, and an extensive bibliography. A thorough review of the requisite matrix algebra has been addedfor transitional purposes, and numerous theoretical and applied problems have been incorporated with selected answers provided at the end of the book. A related Web site includes additional data sets and SAS® code for all numerical examples. Linear Model in Statistics, Second Edition is a must-have book for courses in statistics, biostatistics, and mathematics at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also an invaluable reference for researchers who need to gain a better understanding of regression and analysis of variance.

Practical Statistics for Data Scientists

Author : Peter Bruce
Publisher : "O'Reilly Media, Inc."
ISBN 13 : 1491952911
Total Pages : 322 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (919 download)

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Book Synopsis Practical Statistics for Data Scientists by : Peter Bruce

Download or read book Practical Statistics for Data Scientists written by Peter Bruce and published by "O'Reilly Media, Inc.". This book was released on 2017-05-10 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical methods are a key part of of data science, yet very few data scientists have any formal statistics training. Courses and books on basic statistics rarely cover the topic from a data science perspective. This practical guide explains how to apply various statistical methods to data science, tells you how to avoid their misuse, and gives you advice on what's important and what's not. Many data science resources incorporate statistical methods but lack a deeper statistical perspective. If you’re familiar with the R programming language, and have some exposure to statistics, this quick reference bridges the gap in an accessible, readable format. With this book, you’ll learn: Why exploratory data analysis is a key preliminary step in data science How random sampling can reduce bias and yield a higher quality dataset, even with big data How the principles of experimental design yield definitive answers to questions How to use regression to estimate outcomes and detect anomalies Key classification techniques for predicting which categories a record belongs to Statistical machine learning methods that “learn” from data Unsupervised learning methods for extracting meaning from unlabeled data

Environmental Economics and Sustainability

Author : Brian Chi-ang Lin
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119328195
Total Pages : 415 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (193 download)

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Book Synopsis Environmental Economics and Sustainability by : Brian Chi-ang Lin

Download or read book Environmental Economics and Sustainability written by Brian Chi-ang Lin and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2017-02-16 with total page 415 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Environmental Economics and Sustainability presents a collection of peer-reviewed research articles contributed by international experts that reveal the current state of our knowledge in the field of environmental economics. Presents the latest research results on a plethora of issues relating to environmental economics and sustainability Features original contributions from top experts in the field from around the world Addresses several of the contemporary challenges of sustainability while infusing new energy into the field of environmental economics Covers myriad topics relating to environmental economics and sustainability including climate change, air pollution, CO2 emissions, recycling, and the international environmental agreement

Statistical Foundations of Data Science

Author : Jianqing Fan
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 0429527616
Total Pages : 942 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (295 download)

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Book Synopsis Statistical Foundations of Data Science by : Jianqing Fan

Download or read book Statistical Foundations of Data Science written by Jianqing Fan and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2020-09-21 with total page 942 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical Foundations of Data Science gives a thorough introduction to commonly used statistical models, contemporary statistical machine learning techniques and algorithms, along with their mathematical insights and statistical theories. It aims to serve as a graduate-level textbook and a research monograph on high-dimensional statistics, sparsity and covariance learning, machine learning, and statistical inference. It includes ample exercises that involve both theoretical studies as well as empirical applications. The book begins with an introduction to the stylized features of big data and their impacts on statistical analysis. It then introduces multiple linear regression and expands the techniques of model building via nonparametric regression and kernel tricks. It provides a comprehensive account on sparsity explorations and model selections for multiple regression, generalized linear models, quantile regression, robust regression, hazards regression, among others. High-dimensional inference is also thoroughly addressed and so is feature screening. The book also provides a comprehensive account on high-dimensional covariance estimation, learning latent factors and hidden structures, as well as their applications to statistical estimation, inference, prediction and machine learning problems. It also introduces thoroughly statistical machine learning theory and methods for classification, clustering, and prediction. These include CART, random forests, boosting, support vector machines, clustering algorithms, sparse PCA, and deep learning.

Forecasting Economic Time Series

Author : Michael Clements
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521634809
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (348 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting Economic Time Series by : Michael Clements

Download or read book Forecasting Economic Time Series written by Michael Clements and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1998-10-08 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures, and measures of economic forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice. David Hendry and Michael Clements base the analyses on assumptions pertinent to the economies to be forecast, viz. a non-constant, evolving economic system, and econometric models whose form and structure are unknown a priori. The authors find that conclusions which can be established formally for constant-parameter stationary processes and correctly-specified models often do not hold when unrealistic assumptions are relaxed. Despite the difficulty of proceeding formally when models are mis-specified in unknown ways for non-stationary processes that are subject to structural breaks, Hendry and Clements show that significant insights can be gleaned. For example, a formal taxonomy of forecasting errors can be developed, the role of causal information clarified, intercept corrections re-established as a method for achieving robustness against forms of structural change, and measures of forecast accuracy re-interpreted.

Linear Models and Time-Series Analysis

Author : Marc S. Paolella
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119431905
Total Pages : 896 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (194 download)

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Book Synopsis Linear Models and Time-Series Analysis by : Marc S. Paolella

Download or read book Linear Models and Time-Series Analysis written by Marc S. Paolella and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2018-12-17 with total page 896 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive and timely edition on an emerging new trend in time series Linear Models and Time-Series Analysis: Regression, ANOVA, ARMA and GARCH sets a strong foundation, in terms of distribution theory, for the linear model (regression and ANOVA), univariate time series analysis (ARMAX and GARCH), and some multivariate models associated primarily with modeling financial asset returns (copula-based structures and the discrete mixed normal and Laplace). It builds on the author's previous book, Fundamental Statistical Inference: A Computational Approach, which introduced the major concepts of statistical inference. Attention is explicitly paid to application and numeric computation, with examples of Matlab code throughout. The code offers a framework for discussion and illustration of numerics, and shows the mapping from theory to computation. The topic of time series analysis is on firm footing, with numerous textbooks and research journals dedicated to it. With respect to the subject/technology, many chapters in Linear Models and Time-Series Analysis cover firmly entrenched topics (regression and ARMA). Several others are dedicated to very modern methods, as used in empirical finance, asset pricing, risk management, and portfolio optimization, in order to address the severe change in performance of many pension funds, and changes in how fund managers work. Covers traditional time series analysis with new guidelines Provides access to cutting edge topics that are at the forefront of financial econometrics and industry Includes latest developments and topics such as financial returns data, notably also in a multivariate context Written by a leading expert in time series analysis Extensively classroom tested Includes a tutorial on SAS Supplemented with a companion website containing numerous Matlab programs Solutions to most exercises are provided in the book Linear Models and Time-Series Analysis: Regression, ANOVA, ARMA and GARCH is suitable for advanced masters students in statistics and quantitative finance, as well as doctoral students in economics and finance. It is also useful for quantitative financial practitioners in large financial institutions and smaller finance outlets.

How I Made One Million Dollars Last Year Trading Commodities

Author : Larry R. Williams
Publisher : Windsor Books/Probus
ISBN 13 : 9780930233105
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (331 download)

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Book Synopsis How I Made One Million Dollars Last Year Trading Commodities by : Larry R. Williams

Download or read book How I Made One Million Dollars Last Year Trading Commodities written by Larry R. Williams and published by Windsor Books/Probus. This book was released on 1979 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This fascinating book is loaded with practical information designed to help you in the commodity market. The author's method...proven by his million dollar success...does not involve complicated math or subjective evaluation. There are two completely systematic methods; %R and Momentum. The essence fo these methods is that they tell you if the super powers are long or short; when the super powers expect a major move to start; what commodities are in true bull or bear markets; when to start buying and when to sell for gargantuan profits. This book is a must if you're a stock or commodity trader. It will expose to you an exciting new approach to trading and thinking--the same approach that has made Larry Williams a millionaire.

Tropical cyclone intensity and structure changes: Theories, observations, numerical modeling and forecasting

Author : Eric Hendricks
Publisher : Frontiers Media SA
ISBN 13 : 2832534554
Total Pages : 260 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (325 download)

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Book Synopsis Tropical cyclone intensity and structure changes: Theories, observations, numerical modeling and forecasting by : Eric Hendricks

Download or read book Tropical cyclone intensity and structure changes: Theories, observations, numerical modeling and forecasting written by Eric Hendricks and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2023-09-29 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Empirical Asset Pricing

Author : Wayne Ferson
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262039370
Total Pages : 497 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (62 download)

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Book Synopsis Empirical Asset Pricing by : Wayne Ferson

Download or read book Empirical Asset Pricing written by Wayne Ferson and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-03-12 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.

Lasso Regressions and Forecasting Models in Applied Stress Testing

Author : Mr.Jorge A. Chan-Lau
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475599021
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Lasso Regressions and Forecasting Models in Applied Stress Testing by : Mr.Jorge A. Chan-Lau

Download or read book Lasso Regressions and Forecasting Models in Applied Stress Testing written by Mr.Jorge A. Chan-Lau and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-05-05 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Model selection and forecasting in stress tests can be facilitated using machine learning techniques. These techniques have proved robust in other fields for dealing with the curse of dimensionality, a situation often encountered in applied stress testing. Lasso regressions, in particular, are well suited for building forecasting models when the number of potential covariates is large, and the number of observations is small or roughly equal to the number of covariates. This paper presents a conceptual overview of lasso regressions, explains how they fit in applied stress tests, describes its advantages over other model selection methods, and illustrates their application by constructing forecasting models of sectoral probabilities of default in an advanced emerging market economy.

Regression Graphics

Author : R. Dennis Cook
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 9780471193654
Total Pages : 380 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (936 download)

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Book Synopsis Regression Graphics by : R. Dennis Cook

Download or read book Regression Graphics written by R. Dennis Cook and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1998-09-30 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Zur graphischen Präsentation von Regressionsdaten gibt es seit dem Vormarsch der Computertechnik vielfältige neue Möglichkeiten, die über die klassischen Ansätze hinausgehen. Der Autor betritt mit seinen Ideen häufig Neuland; er illustriert sie mit zahlreichen Beispielen, Diagrammen und Abbildungen (die entsprechenden 3D- und Farbversionen sind über Internet abrufbar). (11/98)

Statistical Learning with Sparsity

Author : Trevor Hastie
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1498712177
Total Pages : 354 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (987 download)

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Book Synopsis Statistical Learning with Sparsity by : Trevor Hastie

Download or read book Statistical Learning with Sparsity written by Trevor Hastie and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2015-05-07 with total page 354 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discover New Methods for Dealing with High-Dimensional DataA sparse statistical model has only a small number of nonzero parameters or weights; therefore, it is much easier to estimate and interpret than a dense model. Statistical Learning with Sparsity: The Lasso and Generalizations presents methods that exploit sparsity to help recover the underl

Handbook of Economic Forecasting

Author : Graham Elliott
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0444627405
Total Pages : 667 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (446 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Economic Forecasting by : Graham Elliott

Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-08-23 with total page 667 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. - Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications - Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications - Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics