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Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9789463434850
Total Pages : 113 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (348 download)
Download or read book Understanding the Predictability of the Arctic Climate written by and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 113 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 030915183X
Total Pages : 192 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-10-08 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.
Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309265266
Total Pages : 93 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (92 download)
Download or read book Seasonal to Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-01-03 with total page 93 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent well documented reductions in the thickness and extent of Arctic sea ice cover, which can be linked to the warming climate, are affecting the global climate system and are also affecting the global economic system as marine access to the Arctic region and natural resource development increase. Satellite data show that during each of the past six summers, sea ice cover has shrunk to its smallest in three decades. The composition of the ice is also changing, now containing a higher fraction of thin first-year ice instead of thicker multi-year ice. Understanding and projecting future sea ice conditions is important to a growing number of stakeholders, including local populations, natural resource industries, fishing communities, commercial shippers, marine tourism operators, national security organizations, regulatory agencies, and the scientific research community. However, gaps in understanding the interactions between Arctic sea ice, oceans, and the atmosphere, along with an increasing rate of change in the nature and quantity of sea ice, is hampering accurate predictions. Although modeling has steadily improved, projections by every major modeling group failed to predict the record breaking drop in summer sea ice extent in September 2012. Establishing sustained communication between the user, modeling, and observation communities could help reveal gaps in understanding, help balance the needs and expectations of different stakeholders, and ensure that resources are allocated to address the most pressing sea ice data needs. Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies explores these topics.
Author : Steffen Tietsche
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 107 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (839 download)
Download or read book Initializing and Predictability of Arctic Sea Ice in a Global Climate Model written by Steffen Tietsche and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 107 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Mark C. Serreze
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521814188
Total Pages : 424 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (141 download)
Download or read book The Arctic Climate System written by Mark C. Serreze and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2005-10-13 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive, up-to-date assessment of the Arctic climate system for researchers and advanced students.
Author : Eric T. DeWeaver
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118671589
Total Pages : 431 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (186 download)
Download or read book Arctic Sea Ice Decline written by Eric T. DeWeaver and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-05-28 with total page 431 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Geophysical Monograph Series, Volume 180. This volume addresses the rapid decline of Arctic sea ice, placing recent sea ice decline in the context of past observations, climate model simulations and projections, and simple models of the climate sensitivity of sea ice. Highlights of the work presented here include An appraisal of the role played by wind forcing in driving the decline; A reconstruction of Arctic sea ice conditions prior to human observations, based on proxy data from sediments; A modeling approach for assessing the impact of sea ice decline on polar bears, used as input to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act; Contrasting studies on the existence of a "tipping point," beyond which Arctic sea ice decline will become (or has already become) irreversible, including an examination of the role of the small ice cap instability in global warming simulations; A significant summertime atmospheric response to sea ice reduction in an atmospheric general circulation model, suggesting a positive feedback and the potential for short-term climate prediction. The book will be of interest to researchers attempting to understand the recent behavior of Arctic sea ice, model projections of future sea ice loss, and the consequences of sea ice loss for the natural and human systems of the Arctic.
Author : Andrew Robertson
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 012811715X
Total Pages : 588 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (281 download)
Download or read book Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction written by Andrew Robertson and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-10-19 with total page 588 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field. - Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications - Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field - Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making - Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages
Author : Laura Marie Quirk
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (92 download)
Download or read book Assessing the Predictability of the Beaufort Sea Minimum Ice Extent in a Changing Arctic Climate Regime written by Laura Marie Quirk and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding the climatic drivers of changes in sea ice extent in the Arctic has become increasingly important as record minima in the September sea ice extent continue to be reached. This research therefore addresses the question of which synoptic scale climatological features are most important in affecting changes in sea ice extent in the Beaufort Sea. First, three measures of sea ice extent- the Barnett Severity Index, the Beaufort Sea minimum sea ice extent, and the Arctic-wide minimum sea ice extent- are compared to assess their degree of agreement and consistency using goodness of fit techniques. Secondly, a number of atmospheric predictor variables are analyzed using a composite approach to identify the most relevant predictors of sea ice in the region. Thirdly, monthly statistical forecast models are created based on multiple regressions and classification and regression trees (CART) to predict the minimum sea ice extent beginning in October of the previous year. Many differing measures have been used to quantify sea ice conditions in the Beaufort Sea, although no study has assessed these measures for consistency. When compared, all three measures indicate the same level of agreement according to the goodness of fit tests. This indicates that the choice of measure can be determined based on the specific application, as no measure outperforms another. In addition to differing measures of sea ice extent, differing predictor variables have been utilized to predict summer sea ice conditions. This study assesses all potentially relevant predictor variables and indicates that upper atmospheric air temperatures at 850 hPa, 700 hPa, and 500 hPa, monthly mean surface air temperatures, freezing degree days, thawing degree days, sea level pressure, total ice concentration, and multiyear ice concentration showed the strongest relationships with sea ice. Various teleconnection patterns including the Arctic Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Pacific-North American pattern also showed strong relationships with these variables and are therefore believed also have some predictive utility. Finally, monthly multiple linear regression and CART models are created to predict the September sea ice extent using a number of climatic predictor variables. The results of these models suggest that antecedent sea ice conditions (total and multiyear ice concentration) and surface air temperature are the most important variables in predicting summer sea ice extent. The potential predictive power of the forecasts increases as predictions are made closer to the September minimum sea ice extent, with the most precise predictions made during July. This research confirms previous studies and provides a useful compilation of the state of the knowledge on the drivers of sea ice changes in the Beaufort Sea. The electronic version of this dissertation is accessible from http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/152586
Author : Neloy Khare
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0128230789
Total Pages : 522 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (282 download)
Download or read book Understanding Present and Past Arctic Environments written by Neloy Khare and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2021-08-20 with total page 522 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding Present and Past Arctic Environments: An Integrated Approach from Climate Change Perspectives provides a fully comprehensive overview of the past, present and future outlook for this incredibly diverse and important region. Through a series of contributed chapters, the book explores changes to this environment that are attributed to the effects of climate change. The book explores the current effects climate change has had on Arctic environments and ecosystems, our current understanding of the effects climate change is having, the effects climate change is having on the atmospheric and ocean processes in this region. The Arctic region is predicted to experience the earliest and most pronounced global warming response to human-induced climatic change, thus a better understanding is vital. - Presents a thorough understanding of the Arctic, it's past, present and future - Provides an integrated assessment of the Arctic climate system, recognizing that a true understanding of its functions lies in appreciating the interactions and linkages among its various components - Brings together many of the world's leading Arctic researchers to describe this diverse environment and its ecology
Author : Steffen Tietsche
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 107 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (798 download)
Download or read book Initialization and Predictability of Arctic Sea Ice in a Global Climate Model written by Steffen Tietsche and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 107 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309210879
Total Pages : 86 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (92 download)
Download or read book Frontiers in Understanding Climate Change and Polar Ecosystems written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-06-02 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The polar regions are experiencing rapid changes in climate. These changes are causing observable ecological impacts of various types and degrees of severity at all ecosystem levels, including society. Even larger changes and more significant impacts are anticipated. As species respond to changing environments over time, their interactions with the physical world and other organisms can also change. This chain of interactions can trigger cascades of impacts throughout entire ecosystems. Evaluating the interrelated physical, chemical, biological, and societal components of polar ecosystems is essential to understanding their vulnerability and resilience to climate forcing. The Polar Research Board (PRB) organized a workshop to address these issues. Experts gathered from a variety of disciplines with knowledge of both the Arctic and Antarctic regions. Participants were challenged to consider what is currently known about climate change and polar ecosystems and to identify the next big questions in the field. A set of interdisciplinary "frontier questions" emerged from the workshop discussions as important topics to be addressed in the coming decades. To begin to address these questions, workshop participants discussed the need for holistic, interdisciplinary systems approach to understanding polar ecosystem responses to climate change. As an outcome of the workshop, participants brainstormed methods and technologies that are crucial to advance the understanding of polar ecosystems and to promote the next generation of polar research. These include new and emerging technologies, sustained long-term observations, data synthesis and management, and data dissemination and outreach.
Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309388805
Total Pages : 351 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (93 download)
Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.
Download or read book COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH written by and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The motivation for this project was to advance the science of climate change and prediction in the Arctic region. Its primary goals were to (i) develop a state-of-the-art Regional Arctic Climate system Model (RACM) including high-resolution atmosphere, land, ocean, sea ice and land hydrology components and (ii) to perform extended numerical experiments using high performance computers to minimize uncertainties and fundamentally improve current predictions of climate change in the northern polar regions. These goals were realized first through evaluation studies of climate system components via one-way coupling experiments. Simulations were then used to examine the effects of advancements in climate component systems on their representation of main physics, time-mean fields and to understand variability signals at scales over many years. As such this research directly addressed some of the major science objectives of the BER Climate Change Research Division (CCRD) regarding the advancement of long-term climate prediction.
Author :
Publisher : East African Publishers
ISBN 13 : 9789966463517
Total Pages : 308 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (635 download)
Download or read book A Textbook of Basic Statistics written by and published by East African Publishers. This book was released on 1987 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Matthias Heymann
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1315406306
Total Pages : 339 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (154 download)
Download or read book Cultures of Prediction in Atmospheric and Climate Science written by Matthias Heymann and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-06-26 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades, science has experienced a revolutionary shift. The development and extensive application of computer modelling and simulation has transformed the knowledge‐making practices of scientific fields as diverse as astro‐physics, genetics, robotics and demography. This epistemic transformation has brought with it a simultaneous heightening of political relevance and a renewal of international policy agendas, raising crucial questions about the nature and application of simulation knowledges throughout public policy. Through a diverse range of case studies, spanning over a century of theoretical and practical developments in the atmospheric and environmental sciences, this book argues that computer modelling and simulation have substantially changed scientific and cultural practices and shaped the emergence of novel ‘cultures of prediction’. Making an innovative, interdisciplinary contribution to understanding the impact of computer modelling on research practice, institutional configurations and broader cultures, this volume will be essential reading for anyone interested in the past, present and future of climate change and the environmental sciences.
Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309287766
Total Pages : 281 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (92 download)
Download or read book Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-12-31 with total page 281 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate is changing, forced out of the range of the past million years by levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases not seen in the Earth's atmosphere for a very, very long time. Lacking action by the world's nations, it is clear that the planet will be warmer, sea level will rise, and patterns of rainfall will change. But the future is also partly uncertain-there is considerable uncertainty about how we will arrive at that different climate. Will the changes be gradual, allowing natural systems and societal infrastructure to adjust in a timely fashion? Or will some of the changes be more abrupt, crossing some threshold or "tipping point" to change so fast that the time between when a problem is recognized and when action is required shrinks to the point where orderly adaptation is not possible? Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change is an updated look at the issue of abrupt climate change and its potential impacts. This study differs from previous treatments of abrupt changes by focusing on abrupt climate changes and also abrupt climate impacts that have the potential to severely affect the physical climate system, natural systems, or human systems, often affecting multiple interconnected areas of concern. The primary timescale of concern is years to decades. A key characteristic of these changes is that they can come faster than expected, planned, or budgeted for, forcing more reactive, rather than proactive, modes of behavior. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change summarizes the state of our knowledge about potential abrupt changes and abrupt climate impacts and categorizes changes that are already occurring, have a high probability of occurrence, or are unlikely to occur. Because of the substantial risks to society and nature posed by abrupt changes, this report recommends the development of an Abrupt Change Early Warning System that would allow for the prediction and possible mitigation of such changes before their societal impacts are severe. Identifying key vulnerabilities can help guide efforts to increase resiliency and avoid large damages from abrupt change in the climate system, or in abrupt impacts of gradual changes in the climate system, and facilitate more informed decisions on the proper balance between mitigation and adaptation. Although there is still much to learn about abrupt climate change and abrupt climate impacts, to willfully ignore the threat of abrupt change could lead to more costs, loss of life, suffering, and environmental degradation. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change makes the case that the time is here to be serious about the threat of tipping points so as to better anticipate and prepare ourselves for the inevitable surprises.
Author : Peter W. Barnes
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 148326839X
Total Pages : 483 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (832 download)
Download or read book The Alaskan Beaufort Sea written by Peter W. Barnes and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-09-17 with total page 483 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Alaskan Beaufort Sea: Ecosystems and Environments provides an interdisciplinary view into almost all aspects of the environment, with a detailed survey of the background literature. This book focuses on the Alaskan Beaufort Shelf environment. Organized into four parts encompassing 20 chapters, this book begins with an overview of the characteristics and history of the region in which the research took place and defines the objectives of the studies program. This text then examines the subsynoptic meteorological networks along the Beaufort Sea coast and shelf. Other chapters consider the thermally generated mesoscale effects on surface winds and the orographic mesoscale effects on surface winds. This book discusses as well the phytoplankton associations and relative phytoplankton production in the area between the 20-m depth contour and the edge of the ice in summer. The final chapter deals with the characteristics of the ice cover and oil-ice interactions that will affect cleanup activities after blowout. This book is a valuable resource for scientists and conservationists.
