Understanding Uncertainty

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470055472
Total Pages : 268 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Understanding Uncertainty by : Dennis V. Lindley

Download or read book Understanding Uncertainty written by Dennis V. Lindley and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-08-28 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A lively and informal introduction to the role of uncertainty and probability in people's lives from an everyday perspective From television game shows and gambling techniques to weather forecasting and the financial markets, virtually every aspect of modern life involves situations in which the outcomes are uncertain and of varying qualities. But as noted statistician Dennis Lindley writes in this distinctive text, "We want you to face up to uncertainty, not hide it away under false concepts, but to understand it and, moreover, to use the recent discoveries so that you can act in the face of uncertainty more sensibly than would have been possible without the skill." Accessibly written at an elementary level, this outstanding text examines uncertainty in various everyday situations and introduces readers to three rules--craftily laid out in the book--that prove uncertainty can be handled with as much confidence as ordinary logic. Combining a concept of utility with probability, the book insightfully demonstrates how uncertainty can be measured and used in everyday life, especially in decision-making and science. With a focus on understanding and using probability calculations, Understanding Uncertainty demystifies probability and: * Explains in straightforward detail the logic of uncertainty, its truths, and its falsehoods * Explores what has been learned in the twentieth century about uncertainty * Provides a logical, sensible method for acting in the face of uncertainty * Presents vignettes of great discoveries made in the twentieth century * Shows readers how to discern if another person--whether a lawyer, politician, scientist, or journalist--is talking sense, posing the right questions, or obtaining sound answers Requiring only a basic understanding of mathematical concepts and operations, Understanding Uncertainty is useful as a text for all students who have probability or statistics as part of their course, even at the most introductory level.

Principles of Uncertainty

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Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1439861625
Total Pages : 494 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (398 download)

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Book Synopsis Principles of Uncertainty by : Joseph B. Kadane

Download or read book Principles of Uncertainty written by Joseph B. Kadane and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2011-05-18 with total page 494 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An intuitive and mathematical introduction to subjective probability and Bayesian statistics.An accessible, comprehensive guide to the theory of Bayesian statistics, Principles of Uncertainty presents the subjective Bayesian approach, which has played a pivotal role in game theory, economics, and the recent boom in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods.

Our Own United States

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 368 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Our Own United States by : Walter Lefferts

Download or read book Our Own United States written by Walter Lefferts and published by . This book was released on 1925 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Make It Rain

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Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 022659792X
Total Pages : 328 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (265 download)

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Book Synopsis Make It Rain by : Kristine C. Harper

Download or read book Make It Rain written by Kristine C. Harper and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2018-06-04 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Weather control. Juxtaposing those two words is enough to raise eyebrows in a world where even the best weather models still fail to nail every forecast, and when the effects of climate change on sea level height, seasonal averages of weather phenomena, and biological behavior are being watched with interest by all, regardless of political or scientific persuasion. But between the late nineteenth century—when the United States first funded an attempt to “shock” rain out of clouds—and the late 1940s, rainmaking (as it had been known) became weather control. And then things got out of control. In Make It Rain, Kristine C. Harper tells the long and somewhat ludicrous history of state-funded attempts to manage, manipulate, and deploy the weather in America. Harper shows that governments from the federal to the local became helplessly captivated by the idea that weather control could promote agriculture, health, industrial output, and economic growth at home, or even be used as a military weapon and diplomatic tool abroad. Clear fog for landing aircraft? There’s a project for that. Gentle rain for strawberries? Let’s do it! Enhanced snowpacks for hydroelectric utilities? Check. The heyday of these weather control programs came during the Cold War, as the atmosphere came to be seen as something to be defended, weaponized, and manipulated. Yet Harper demonstrates that today there are clear implications for our attempts to solve the problems of climate change.

Hints for an essay on anemology and ombrology. With a weather almanac. [Afterw.] Ombrological almanac

Download Hints for an essay on anemology and ombrology. With a weather almanac. [Afterw.] Ombrological almanac PDF Online Free

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 536 pages
Book Rating : 4.R/5 (5 download)

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Book Synopsis Hints for an essay on anemology and ombrology. With a weather almanac. [Afterw.] Ombrological almanac by : Peter Legh

Download or read book Hints for an essay on anemology and ombrology. With a weather almanac. [Afterw.] Ombrological almanac written by Peter Legh and published by . This book was released on 1839 with total page 536 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Wasting the Rain (Routledge Revivals)

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Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1317964969
Total Pages : 241 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (179 download)

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Book Synopsis Wasting the Rain (Routledge Revivals) by : William M. Adams Adams

Download or read book Wasting the Rain (Routledge Revivals) written by William M. Adams Adams and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-05-01 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First published in 1992, this title offers an experienced and constructive evaluation of the ways in which water resources have been developed in Africa. Adams argues that the best hope of productive development lies in working and engaging with local people and using local knowledge of the environment effectively. Modern, large-scale developments that have largely been ineffective are examined, and emphasis is placed on the importance of using the skills and concerns of those affected, such as small farmers, to develop ingenious water projects – an approach that can be applied worldwide. This is an interesting and relevant title, which will be of particular value to those with an interest in the developments in water resource conservation over the past two decades.

Making Rain

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0471406163
Total Pages : 258 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (714 download)

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Book Synopsis Making Rain by : Andrew Sobel

Download or read book Making Rain written by Andrew Sobel and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2003-08-08 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Professionals who work with clients or large accounts can create lifetime relationships based on these well-researched secrets. Based drawing from extensive interviews with client executives, Making Rain offers a series of provocative insights on how to shed the expert-for-hire label and develop long-term advisory relationships. Exploding the popular myth of the "Rainmaker," a dated and dysfunctional figure that clients no longer welcome, Andrew Sobel argues that any professional can learn to "make rain" on an ongoing basis with existing clients by developing a special set of skills, attitudes, and strategies. These innovative tips and techniques from a recognized leader in the field of professional services will enable any consultant, salesperson, or service professional to create enduring client loyalty.

Principles of Risk Analysis

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Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1439857490
Total Pages : 586 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (398 download)

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Book Synopsis Principles of Risk Analysis by : Charles Yoe

Download or read book Principles of Risk Analysis written by Charles Yoe and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2011-09-15 with total page 586 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know—and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don’t know. Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty lays out the tasks of risk analysis in a straightforward, conceptual manner that is consistent with the risk models of all communities of practice. It answers the questions "what is risk analysis?" and "how do I do this?" Distilling the common principles of the many risk tribes and dialects into serviceable definitions and narratives, the book provides a foundation for the practice of risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty for professionals from all walks of life. In the first part of the book, readers learn the language, models, and concepts of risk analysis and its three component tasks—risk management, assessment, and communication. The second part of the book supplies the tools, techniques, and methodologies to help readers apply the principles. From problem identification and brainstorming to model building and choosing a probability distribution, the author walks readers through the how-to of risk assessment. Addressing the critical task of risk communication, he explains how to present the results of assessments and how to develop effective messages. The book’s simple and straightforward style—based on the author’s decades of experience as a risk analyst, trainer, and educator—strips away the mysterious aura that often accompanies risk analysis. It describes the principles in a manner that empowers readers to begin the practice of risk analysis, to better understand and use the models and practice of their individual fields, and to gain access to the rich and sophisticated professional literature on risk analysis. Additional exercises as well as a free student version of the Palisade Corporation DecisionTools® Suite software and files used in the preparation of this book are available for download.

Climate Change

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Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1351161598
Total Pages : 582 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (511 download)

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Book Synopsis Climate Change by : Michael A. Toman

Download or read book Climate Change written by Michael A. Toman and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-11-30 with total page 582 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the years, a large and growing literature on the economics of climate change has developed. Within this volume the contributors have included a wide range of journal essays that consider the impact of climate change on specific sectors; goods and services; the costs and benefits of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation; and policy design for mitigation, including both domestic instruments and issues related to international agreements.

Sir Jamsetjee Jejeebhoy madressa jubilee volume

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 590 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (321 download)

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Book Synopsis Sir Jamsetjee Jejeebhoy madressa jubilee volume by : Sir Jivanji Jamshedji Modi

Download or read book Sir Jamsetjee Jejeebhoy madressa jubilee volume written by Sir Jivanji Jamshedji Modi and published by . This book was released on 1914 with total page 590 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Microeconomics

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Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0198843208
Total Pages : 1068 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (988 download)

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Book Synopsis Microeconomics by : Samuel Bowles

Download or read book Microeconomics written by Samuel Bowles and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2022 with total page 1068 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bowles and Halliday capture the intellectual excitement, analytical precision, and policy relevance of the new microeconomics that has emerged over the past decades. Drawing on themes of the classical economists from Smith through Marx and 20th century writers - including Hayek, Coase, and Arrow - the authors use twenty-first century analytical methods to address enduring challenges in economics. The subtitle of the work - Competition, conflict, and coordination - signals their focus on how the institutions of a modern capitalist economy work, introducing students to recent developments in the microeconomics of credit and labor markets with asymmetric information, a dynamic analysis of how firms compete going beyond price taking, as well as bargaining over the gains from exchange, social norms, and the exercise of power. The new benchmark model proposed by Bowles and Halliday is based on an empirical approach to economic actors and problems. They start from the premise that contracts are incomplete, and that as a result market failures, rather than being a special case illustrated by environmental spillovers, are to be expected in markets for labor, credit, knowledge and throughout the economy. They explain how experiments show that human motivations include ethical as well as other-regarding preferences (rather than entirely self-interested) and explain why the technologies of knowledge-based economies are a source of winner-take-all rather than stable competition. The authors also consider the intrinsic limits of mechanism design and governmental interventions in the economy. Teaching recent developments in microeconomic theory allows the authors to provide students with the tools to analyze and engage in informed debate on the issues that concern them most: climate change, inequality, innovation, and epidemic spread. Tradeoffs are highlighted by providing models in which capitalism can be seen as an "innovation machine" that raises material living standards on average, while at the same time sustaining levels of inequality that many find to be unfair. Digital formats and resources This title is available for students and institutions to purchase in a variety of formats and is supported by online resources. The e-book offers a mobile experience and convenient access to a variety of features that offer extra learning support. It allows students to engage in self-assessment activities, watch video material that further explains figures and mathematics, and offers the opportunity to work with interactive graphs to understand how the models work. Drawing on the authors' decades of teaching the new microeconomics, this title is supported by a range of online resources for students and lecturers including multiple-choice-questions with instant feedback, further mathematical and discussion-based questions, a fully customizable test bank for lecturer use, PowerPoint slides to accompany each chapter, worksheets that can be assigned to the class, and answers to the problems set in the book.

Proceedings of the Inter-American Conference on Conservation of Renewable Natural Resources, Denver, Colorado, September 7-20, 1948

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 808 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (319 download)

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Book Synopsis Proceedings of the Inter-American Conference on Conservation of Renewable Natural Resources, Denver, Colorado, September 7-20, 1948 by :

Download or read book Proceedings of the Inter-American Conference on Conservation of Renewable Natural Resources, Denver, Colorado, September 7-20, 1948 written by and published by . This book was released on 1949 with total page 808 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Proceedings of the Inter-American Conference on Conservation of Renewable Natural Resources

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Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 808 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (243 download)

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Book Synopsis Proceedings of the Inter-American Conference on Conservation of Renewable Natural Resources by :

Download or read book Proceedings of the Inter-American Conference on Conservation of Renewable Natural Resources written by and published by . This book was released on 1948 with total page 808 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

International Organization and Conference Series I-IV.

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 806 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis International Organization and Conference Series I-IV. by : United States. Department of State

Download or read book International Organization and Conference Series I-IV. written by United States. Department of State and published by . This book was released on 1948 with total page 806 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

International Organization and Conference Series

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 808 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (31 download)

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Book Synopsis International Organization and Conference Series by : United States. Dept. of State

Download or read book International Organization and Conference Series written by United States. Dept. of State and published by . This book was released on 1949 with total page 808 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Morality and Rational Choice

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9401582262
Total Pages : 226 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (15 download)

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Book Synopsis Morality and Rational Choice by : J. Baron

Download or read book Morality and Rational Choice written by J. Baron and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Public controversies - such as those about the distribution of goods between rich and poor, trade and population policies, allocation of medical resources, and the tradeoff between environment al protection and economic efficiency - often hinge on fundamental views about how we ought to make decisions tImt affect each other, that is, what principles we ought to follow. Efforts to find an acceptable public philosophy, a set of such principles on which people might agree, have foundered because of dis agreement among philosophers and others who are concerned with such issues. One view, which I shall develop and defend here, holds that decisions that affect others should be made according to an overall evaluation of the consequences of each option. This consequentialist view is opposed by a variety of alternatives, but many of the alternatives have in COlllmon a basis in moral intuition. To take a simple example, consequentialism holds that, other things equal, if we have decided that it is better to let a terminally ill patient die than to prolong her agony by keeping her alive, then we ought to kill her.

Report of the Chief

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 294 pages
Book Rating : 4.E/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Report of the Chief by : United States. Weather Bureau

Download or read book Report of the Chief written by United States. Weather Bureau and published by . This book was released on 1922 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: