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Transitory Terms Of Trade Shocks And The Current Account
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Book Synopsis Terms of Trade Shocks and the Current Account by : Mr.Paul Cashin
Download or read book Terms of Trade Shocks and the Current Account written by Mr.Paul Cashin and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-12-01 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the relationship between terms of trade shocks, private saving, and the current account position. The relationship between these variables is theoretically ambiguous: an adverse transitory terms of trade shock can either induce a deterioration or an improvement in the current account, depending on whether the resulting income effects are greater or less than the resulting substitution effects. The substitution effects involve both intertemporally substituting consumption and intratemporally substituting consumption between importables and nontradables. The relative strength of these substitution effects is estimated using data for five OECD countries during 1970/95; both are found to exert large and significant effects on the current account balance.
Book Synopsis Transitory Terms-of-trade Shocks and the Current Account by : Maurice Obstfeld
Download or read book Transitory Terms-of-trade Shocks and the Current Account written by Maurice Obstfeld and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Response of the Current Account to Terms of Trade Shocks by : Christopher J. Kent
Download or read book The Response of the Current Account to Terms of Trade Shocks written by Christopher J. Kent and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-07-01 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is the relationship between the current account balance and the terms of trade affected by the persistence of terms of trade shocks? In intertemporal models of the current account that incorporate a consumption-smoothing and an investment response to shocks, the effect of the terms of trade on external balances is predicted to be dependent on the duration of terms of trade shocks. Using a median-unbiased estimator, an unbiased model-selection rule, and terms of trade data for 128 countries over the period 1960-99 we identify two groups of countries-those that typically experience temporary terms of trade shocks and those that typically experience permanent terms of trade shocks. The results from panel-data regressions of the two groups of countries support the theoretical predictions of the intertemporal approach to the current account. We find that the greater (lesser) the persistence of the terms of trade shock, the more (less) the investment effect dominates the consumption-smoothing effect on saving, so that the current account balance moves in the opposite (same) direction as that of the shock.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomics for Professionals by : Leslie Lipschitz
Download or read book Macroeconomics for Professionals written by Leslie Lipschitz and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019-01-23 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding macroeconomic developments and policies in the twenty-first century is daunting: policy-makers face the combined challenges of supporting economic activity and employment, keeping inflation low and risks of financial crises at bay, and navigating the ever-tighter linkages of globalization. Many professionals face demands to evaluate the implications of developments and policies for their business, financial, or public policy decisions. Macroeconomics for Professionals provides a concise, rigorous, yet intuitive framework for assessing a country's macroeconomic outlook and policies. Drawing on years of experience at the International Monetary Fund, Leslie Lipschitz and Susan Schadler have created an operating manual for professional applied economists and all those required to evaluate economic analysis.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic and Sectoral Effects of Terms-of-Trade Shocks by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Macroeconomic and Sectoral Effects of Terms-of-Trade Shocks written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-10-01 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the impact of long-run terms-of-trade shocks. Analytically, we show that, if capital goods are largely importable or the labor supply is sufficiently elastic, then natural-resource booms increase aggregate investment and worsen the current account, but Dutch ‘Disease’ effects are weak. We then examine 18 oil-exporting developing countries during 1965-89. Favorable terms-of-trade shocks increase investment and (especially government) consumption, but reduce medium-term savings; hence, the current account deteriorates. Nontradable output increases, in response to real appreciations, but Dutch Disease effects are strikingly absent. Investment, consumption, and nontradable output respond more to a terms-of-trade decline than to an increase.
Book Synopsis Terms-of-trade Shocks and Optimal Investment by : Luis Serven
Download or read book Terms-of-trade Shocks and Optimal Investment written by Luis Serven and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1999 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: February 1995 Conventional analyses of the effect of terms-of-trade shocks provide a misleading view of their impact on investment and the current account, because capital goods imports are excluded from the analytical framework -- an exclusion both arbitrary and unrealistic. Conventional analyses of the effect of terms-of-trade shocks provide a misleading view of their impact on investment and the current account, says Serven, because capital goods imports are excluded from the analytical framework. He argues that such an exclusion is both arbitrary and unrealistic. Serven reexamines the consequences of permanent and transitory changes in the terms of trade in a rational-expectations model of a small open economy with intertemporally optimizing agents, and with trade in both consumption and capital goods. In this framework, the response to a permanent terms of trade improvement is unambiguous: The long-run capital stock, and thus investment, must rise, and the current account must deteriorate -- exactly the opposite of the Laursen-Metzler effect. A transitory improvement in the terms of trade raises saving but has an uncertain effect on investment. So, the impact on the current account is generally ambiguous and is shown to depend on three factors: the import contents of consumption and investment, the duration of the windfall, and the degree of intertemporal substitutability in both consumption and investment. This paper -- a product of the Macroeconomics and Growth Division, Policy Research Department -- is part of a larger effort in the department to understand the macroeconomic impact of policy shifts and external shocks. The author may be contacted at [email protected].
Book Synopsis Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks by : Mr.Jonathan David Ostry
Download or read book Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks written by Mr.Jonathan David Ostry and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-10-01 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the relationship between temporary terms of trade shocks and household saving in developing countries. It is first shown that, from a theoretical standpoint, this relationship is ambiguous: private saving may rise or fall in response to a transitory terms of trade shock, depending on the values of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution and the intratemporal elasticity of substitution between traded and nontraded goods. Empirical estimates of these two parameters are obtained using data from a sample of 13 developing countries, and then used to draw implications for the response of private saving to transitory terms of trade shocks.
Book Synopsis Dynamic Response to Foreign Transfers and Terms-of-trade Shocks in Open Economies by : Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel
Download or read book Dynamic Response to Foreign Transfers and Terms-of-trade Shocks in Open Economies written by Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1992 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Both permanent and transitory disturbances can change long- run capacity and output -- although they may have opposite effects on the current account. Liquidity constraints and wage rigidities tend to amplify the cyclical adjustment to external shocks.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Effects of Terms-of-trade Shocks by : Nikola Spatafora
Download or read book Macroeconomic Effects of Terms-of-trade Shocks written by Nikola Spatafora and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1999 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: January 1995 The authors investigate the impact on economic growth and development of long-run movements in the external terms of trade, with special reference to the experience of 18 oil-exporting countries between 1973 and 1989. They argue that this sample approximates a controlled experiment for examining the impact of unanticipated -- but permanent -- shocks to the terms of trade. They analyze the sample econometrically using panel data techniques. They find that permanent terms-of-trade shocks have a strongly significant positive effect on investment, which they justify theoretically on the grounds that countries in the sample import much of their capital equipment. The shocks also have a significant positive effect on consumption. Government consumption responds almost twice as strongly as private consumption. The shocks have no effect on savings and adversely affect the trade and current account balances. There is a significant positive effect on the output of all main categories of nontradables. But Dutch disease effects are strikingly absent. Agriculture and manufacturing do not contract in reaction to an oil price increase. Dutch disease effects may be absent in part because of policy-induced output restraints in the oil sector, or because of the enclave nature of the oil sector, which does not participate in domestic factor markets.
Book Synopsis Monthly Catalog of United States Government Publications by :
Download or read book Monthly Catalog of United States Government Publications written by and published by . This book was released on with total page 968 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1484359127 Total Pages :61 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis Thailand by : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Download or read book Thailand written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-06-04 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that a cyclical recovery is under way in Thailand but has yet to become broad based. GDP growth is estimated at 3.9 percent in 2017, boosted by strong tourism services and manufacturing exports. Domestic demand remained sluggish amid structural challenges, and export gains failed to trickle down to household incomes and investments in other sectors. Headline inflation averaged 0.7 percent, below the target band for the third year in a row, reflecting low food prices and weak core inflation. The current account surplus remained large, at about 10.6 percent of GDP. Financial system stability continued to strengthen. The growth momentum is expected to continue in 2018 and 2019, supported by sustained export dynamism.
Book Synopsis Understanding Small-Island Developing States by : Amelia Santos-Paulino
Download or read book Understanding Small-Island Developing States written by Amelia Santos-Paulino and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-10-18 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Small island developing states (SIDS) are characterised by high economic, geographical and social vulnerability. These states are perceived as economically vulnerable, exhibiting poor economic performance, and embedding low levels of achieved well-being on most criteria. SIDS, which occupy very large parts of the world, face idiosyncratic development challenges largely owing to their susceptibility to external shocks. Still, these countries are all too often overlooked in the development research literature. Arising from a UNU-WIDER research project, this book provides in-depth research on the international dimensions of SIDS development experiences. Using a wealth of data, as well as case studies, the main topics examined comprise: aid, policies and growth; the costs of neglect, in terms of losses owing to a country falling into the fragile states group, of that country and those in its region; the composition of trade and the impact of external shocks, and the impact of remittances. The studies jointly provide valuable insights for small islands and other developing countries in the pursuit of sustainable growth and development. This book was published as a special issue of the Journal of Development Studies.
Book Synopsis Open Economy Macroeconomics in Developing Countries by : Carlos A. Vegh
Download or read book Open Economy Macroeconomics in Developing Countries written by Carlos A. Vegh and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2013-08-30 with total page 911 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive and rigorous text that shows how a basic open economy model can be extended to answer important macroeconomic questions that arise in emerging markets. This rigorous and comprehensive textbook develops a basic small open economy model and shows how it can be extended to answer many important macroeconomic questions that arise in emerging markets and developing economies, particularly those regarding monetary, fiscal, and exchange rate issues. Eschewing the complex calibrated models on which the field of international finance increasingly relies, the book teaches the reader how to think in terms of simple models and grasp the fundamentals of open economy macroeconomics. After analyzing the standard intertemporal small open economy model, the book introduces frictions such as imperfect capital markets, intertemporal distortions, and nontradable goods, into the basic model in order to shed light on the economy's response to different shocks. The book then introduces money into the model to analyze the real effects of monetary and exchange rate policy. It then applies these theoretical tools to a variety of important macroeconomic issues relevant to developing countries (and, in a world of continuing financial crisis, to industrial countries as well), including the use of a nominal interest rate as a main policy instrument, the relative merits of flexible and predetermined exchange rate regimes, and the targeting of “real anchors.” Finally, the book analyzes in detail specific topics such as inflation stabilization, “dollarization,” balance of payments crises, and, inspired by recent events, financial crises. Each chapter includes boxes with relevant empirical evidence and ends with exercises. The book is suitable for use in graduate courses in development economics, international finance, and macroeconomics.
Book Synopsis A General Equilibrium Analysis of Temporary Terms-of-trade Shocks in a Developing Economy by : Juan Enrique Muñoz Giró
Download or read book A General Equilibrium Analysis of Temporary Terms-of-trade Shocks in a Developing Economy written by Juan Enrique Muñoz Giró and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Global Financial Crises by : Joseph R. Bisignano
Download or read book Global Financial Crises written by Joseph R. Bisignano and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 434 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since 1990, major banking and current crises have occurred in many countries throughout the world - including Mexico and Latin America in 1994-95, East Asia in 1997-98, and Russia and Brazil in 1998 - with large costs both to the individual countries experiencing the crises and to other nations. As a result, considerable effort has been expended by economists and policymakers to identify the causes of these crises and to design programs with the aim both of preventing similar crises from occurring in the future, and of minimizing the costs when these do occur. These studies have cut across national boundaries, being undertaken by individual researchers and organizations in particular countries, as well as by international institutions. This book collects the papers and discussants' comments presented at a conference co-sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, and held in Chicago, in early October 1999. The purpose of the conference was to identify and discuss the lessons to be learned from these crises. Topics discussed included reviews of the crises in the individual countries and regions; analyses of the policy responses, both by the affected countries and by official international institutions; what has been learned from these crises; deposit insurance reform; the design of bank capital regulation; the role of bank supervision and regulation; and the future of official international financial institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The conference participants included a broad range of academic, industry, and regulatory experts from more than twenty-five countries. Because of the timeliness of the conference and the wide-ranging expertise of the participants, the papers in this book should be of significant interest both to students of financial crises and to domestic and international policymakers.
Book Synopsis International Macroeconomic Dynamics by : Stephen J. Turnovsky
Download or read book International Macroeconomic Dynamics written by Stephen J. Turnovsky and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1997 with total page 514 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: International Macroeconomic Dynamics provides extensive applications of important macroeconomic dynamic models to the international economy. For a long time, the study of macroeconomics has focused almost exclusively on a closed economy and downplayed the role of international transactions. Today, however, researchers recognize that one cannot fully understand domestic macroeconomic relationships without considering the global economy within which each country operates. Increasingly, economists are treating international transactions as an integral part of the macroeconomic system, and international macroeconomics has become an area of intensive research activity. International Macroeconomic Dynamics provides extensive applications of important macroeconomic dynamic models to the international economy. It adopts the main contemporary macroeconomic framework, the representative agent model, and develops a series of models of increasing complexity. The author considers both small and large economies and analyzes them in both deterministic and stochastic contexts. The emphasis is very much on the development of the analytical models; a novel feature is the extensive use of continuous-time stochastic methods. While the author applies the models to a range of important policy issues, particularly issues of fiscal policy, the reader is invited to view the analyses as blueprints for other applications.
Book Synopsis Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises by : Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti
Download or read book Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises written by Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-06-01 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies large reductions in current account deficits and exchange rate depreciations in low- and middle-income countries. It examines which factors help predict the occurrence of a reversal or a currency crisis, and how these events affect macroeconomic performance. Both domestic factors, such as the low reserves, and external factors, such as unfavorable terms of trade, are found to trigger reversals and currency crises. The two types of events are, however, distinct; an exchange rate crash is associated with a fall in output growth and a recovery thereafter, while for reversals there is no systematic evidence of a growth slowdown.
