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Trade Shocks In Developing Countries
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Book Synopsis Reshaping Global Value Chains in Light of COVID-19 by : Paul Brenton
Download or read book Reshaping Global Value Chains in Light of COVID-19 written by Paul Brenton and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2022-03-01 with total page 217 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global value chains (GVCs) have driven dramatic expansions in trade, productivity, and economic growth in developing countries. This book examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on GVCs and explores whether they can continue to be a driver of trade and development. The report reviews previous crises and what these tell us about the resilience of GVC firms to shocks. It examines the observed impact of COVID-19 on trade during the sharp global recession of 2020. It summarizes discussions with GVC firms on the impacts of, and their responses to, the COVID shock. GVCs showed surprising resilience, but the rapid recovery raised new issues with supply chains. The book then explores simulations from a global economic model of the potential longer-term impacts of COVID-19 on developing countries and other key factors shaping the global economy, including the evolving role of China, increasing trade restrictions and policy responses to global warming. The analysis shows that while there are risks associated with GVCs, especially those concentrated around key nodes and where opportunities to find alternative suppliers or buyers are limited, there are mechanisms by which GVCs maintain trade relationships during a crisis, paving the way for a strong trade-led recovery. Measures are identified that can enhance the resilience of GVCs in low-income countries. This report finds that policies that maintain and enhance trade can contribute toward crisis management and recovery. Attempts to reshore production would make all countries worse off, including those that implement them, and could drive 52 million people, mainly in Africa, into extreme poverty. Measures to meet climate change commitments will have more profound impacts, leading to a shift away from carbon-intensive GVCs, while new opportunities for trade will arise in GVCs that are less carbon intensive.
Book Synopsis International Macroeconomics by : Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Download or read book International Macroeconomics written by Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2022-09-06 with total page 482 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An essential introduction to one of the most timely and important subjects in economics International Macroeconomics presents a rigorous and theoretically elegant treatment of real-world international macroeconomic problems, incorporating the latest economic research while maintaining a microfounded, optimizing, and dynamic general equilibrium approach. This one-of-a-kind textbook introduces a basic model and applies it to fundamental questions in international economics, including the determinants of the current account in small and large economies, processes of adjustment to shocks, the determinants of the real exchange rate, the role of fixed and flexible exchange rates in models with nominal rigidities, and interactions between monetary and fiscal policy. The book confronts theoretical predictions using actual data, highlighting both the power and limits of given theories and encouraging critical thinking. Provides a rigorous and elegant treatment of fundamental questions in international macroeconomicsBrings undergraduate and master’s instruction in line with modern economic researchFollows a microfounded, optimizing, and dynamic general equilibrium approachAddresses fundamental questions in international economics, such as the role of capital controls in the presence of financial frictions and balance-of-payments crisesUses real-world data to test the predictions of theoretical modelsFeatures a wealth of exercises at the end of each chapter that challenge students to hone their theoretical skills and scrutinize the empirical relevance of modelsAccompanied by a website with lecture slides for every chapter
Book Synopsis Are External Shocks Responsible for the Instability of Output in Low Income Countries? by : Claudio E. Raddatz
Download or read book Are External Shocks Responsible for the Instability of Output in Low Income Countries? written by Claudio E. Raddatz and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: External shocks, such as commodity price fluctuations, natural disasters, and the role of the international economy, are often blamed for the poor economic performance of low-income countries. The author quantifies the impact of these different external shocks using a panel vector autoregression (VAR) approach and compares their relative contributions to output volatility in low-income countries vis-à-vis internal factors. He finds that external shocks can only explain a small fraction of the output variance of a typical low-income country. Internal factors are the main source of fluctuations. From a quantitative perspective, the output effect of external shocks is typically small in absolute terms, but significant relative to the historic performance of these countries.
Book Synopsis World Development Report 2020 by : World Bank
Download or read book World Development Report 2020 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-11-19 with total page 545 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global value chains (GVCs) powered the surge of international trade after 1990 and now account for almost half of all trade. This shift enabled an unprecedented economic convergence: poor countries grew rapidly and began to catch up with richer countries. Since the 2008 global financial crisis, however, the growth of trade has been sluggish and the expansion of GVCs has stalled. Meanwhile, serious threats have emerged to the model of trade-led growth. New technologies could draw production closer to the consumer and reduce the demand for labor. And trade conflicts among large countries could lead to a retrenchment or a segmentation of GVCs. World Development Report 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains examines whether there is still a path to development through GVCs and trade. It concludes that technological change is, at this stage, more a boon than a curse. GVCs can continue to boost growth, create better jobs, and reduce poverty provided that developing countries implement deeper reforms to promote GVC participation; industrial countries pursue open, predictable policies; and all countries revive multilateral cooperation.
Download or read book Sticky Feet written by Claire H. Hollweg and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2014-07-03 with total page 123 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report quantifies labor mobility costs in developing countries and simulates the implied adjustment paths of employment and wages following a change in trade policy. High mobility costs are shown to reduce the potential gains to trade reform.
Book Synopsis News Shocks in Open Economies by : Mr.Rabah Arezki
Download or read book News Shocks in Open Economies written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output ? the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first present a two-sector small open economy model in order to predict the responses of macroeconomic aggregates to news of an oil discovery. We then estimate the effects of giant oil discoveries on a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent with the predictions of the model. After an oil discovery, the current account and saving rate decline for the first 5 years and then rise sharply during the ensuing years. Investment rises robustly soon after the news arrives, while GDP does not increase until after 5 years. Employment rates fall slightly for a sustained period of time.
Book Synopsis The Role of Trade in Ending Poverty by :
Download or read book The Role of Trade in Ending Poverty written by and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Role of Trade in Ending Poverty looks at the complex relationships between economic growth, poverty reduction and trade, and examines the challenges that poor people face in benefiting from trade opportunities. Written jointly by the World Bank Group and the WTO, the publication examines how trade could make a greater contribution to ending poverty by increasing efforts to lower trade costs, improve the enabling environment, implement trade policy in conjunction with other areas of policy, better manage risks faced by the poor, and improve data used for policy-making.
Book Synopsis Economics Rules: The Rights and Wrongs of the Dismal Science by : Dani Rodrik
Download or read book Economics Rules: The Rights and Wrongs of the Dismal Science written by Dani Rodrik and published by W. W. Norton & Company. This book was released on 2015-10-13 with total page 161 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “A hugely valuable contribution. . . . In setting out a defence of the best in economics, Rodrik has also provided a goal for the discipline as a whole.” —Martin Sandbu, Financial Times In the wake of the financial crisis and the Great Recession, economics seems anything but a science. In this sharp, masterfully argued book, Dani Rodrik, a leading critic from within, takes a close look at economics to examine when it falls short and when it works, to give a surprisingly upbeat account of the discipline. Drawing on the history of the field and his deep experience as a practitioner, Rodrik argues that economics can be a powerful tool that improves the world—but only when economists abandon universal theories and focus on getting the context right. Economics Rules argues that the discipline's much-derided mathematical models are its true strength. Models are the tools that make economics a science. Too often, however, economists mistake a model for the model that applies everywhere and at all times. In six chapters that trace his discipline from Adam Smith to present-day work on globalization, Rodrik shows how diverse situations call for different models. Each model tells a partial story about how the world works. These stories offer wide-ranging, and sometimes contradictory, lessons—just as children’s fables offer diverse morals. Whether the question concerns the rise of global inequality, the consequences of free trade, or the value of deficit spending, Rodrik explains how using the right models can deliver valuable new insights about social reality and public policy. Beyond the science, economics requires the craft to apply suitable models to the context. The 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers challenged many economists' deepest assumptions about free markets. Rodrik reveals that economists' model toolkit is much richer than these free-market models. With pragmatic model selection, economists can develop successful antipoverty programs in Mexico, growth strategies in Africa, and intelligent remedies for domestic inequality. At once a forceful critique and defense of the discipline, Economics Rules charts a path toward a more humble but more effective science.
Book Synopsis Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter? by : Mr.Atish R. Ghosh
Download or read book Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter? written by Mr.Atish R. Ghosh and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1995-11-01 with total page 10 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The effect of the exchange rate regime on inflation and growth is examined. The 30-year data set includes over 100 countries and nine regime types. Pegged regimes are associated with lower inflation than intermediate or flexible regimes. This anti-inflationary benefit reflects lower money supply growth (a discipline effect) and higher money demand growth (a credibility effect). Output growth does not vary significantly across regimes: Countries with pegged regimes invest more and are more open to international trade than those with flexible rates, but they experience lower residual productivity growth. Output and employment are more variable under pegged rates than under flexible rates.
Book Synopsis Straight Talk on Trade by : Dani Rodrik
Download or read book Straight Talk on Trade written by Dani Rodrik and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2019-08-27 with total page 330 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Deftly navigating the tensions among globalization, national sovereignty, and democracy, Straight Talk on Trade presents an indispensable commentary on today's world economy and its dilemmas, and offers a visionary framework at a critical time when it is most needed.
Book Synopsis Financial Deepening, Terms of Trade Shocks, and Growth Volatility in Low-Income Countries by : Mr.Kangni R Kpodar
Download or read book Financial Deepening, Terms of Trade Shocks, and Growth Volatility in Low-Income Countries written by Mr.Kangni R Kpodar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-03-25 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper contributes to the literature by looking at the possible relevance of the structure of the financial system—whether financial intermediation is performed through banks or markets—for macroeconomic volatility, against the backdrop of increased policy attention on strengthening growth resilience. With low-income countries (LICs) being the most vulnerable to large and frequent terms of trade shocks, the paper focuses on a sample of 38 LICs over the period 1978-2012 and finds that banking sector development acts as a shock-absorber in poor countries, dampening the transmission of terms of trade shocks to growth volatility. Expanding the sample to 121 developing countries confirms this result, although this role of shock-absorber fades away as economies grow richer. Stock market development, by contrast, appears neither to be a shock-absorber nor a shock-amplifier for most economies. These findings are consistent across a range of econometric estimators, including fixed effect, system GMM and local projection estimates.
Book Synopsis Understanding Small-Island Developing States by : Amelia Santos-Paulino
Download or read book Understanding Small-Island Developing States written by Amelia Santos-Paulino and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-10-18 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Small island developing states (SIDS) are characterised by high economic, geographical and social vulnerability. These states are perceived as economically vulnerable, exhibiting poor economic performance, and embedding low levels of achieved well-being on most criteria. SIDS, which occupy very large parts of the world, face idiosyncratic development challenges largely owing to their susceptibility to external shocks. Still, these countries are all too often overlooked in the development research literature. Arising from a UNU-WIDER research project, this book provides in-depth research on the international dimensions of SIDS development experiences. Using a wealth of data, as well as case studies, the main topics examined comprise: aid, policies and growth; the costs of neglect, in terms of losses owing to a country falling into the fragile states group, of that country and those in its region; the composition of trade and the impact of external shocks, and the impact of remittances. The studies jointly provide valuable insights for small islands and other developing countries in the pursuit of sustainable growth and development. This book was published as a special issue of the Journal of Development Studies.
Book Synopsis Evolution of Exchange Rate Regimes by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Evolution of Exchange Rate Regimes written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1988-12-09 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.
Book Synopsis Trade and Inequality by : Pinelopi K. Goldberg
Download or read book Trade and Inequality written by Pinelopi K. Goldberg and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This research review brings together the most influential theoretical and empirical contributions to the topic of trade and inequality from recent years. Segregating the subject into four key areas, it forms a comprehensive study of the subject, targeted at academic readers familiar with the main trade models and empirical methods used in economics. The first two parts cover empirical evidence on trade and inequality in developed and developing countries, while the third and fourth sections confront transition dynamics following trade liberalization and new theoretical contributions inspired by the previously-discussed empirical evidence, respectively. Presented with an extensive original introduction by the editor, Trade and Inequality will be an invaluable tool in the study of this field to advanced undergraduate students, graduate students and faculty alike.
Book Synopsis The Great Trade Collapse: Causes, Consequences and Prospects by : Richard E. Baldwin
Download or read book The Great Trade Collapse: Causes, Consequences and Prospects written by Richard E. Baldwin and published by CEPR. This book was released on 2009 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Assessing the Fragility of Global Trade by : Ms.Yevgeniya Korniyenko
Download or read book Assessing the Fragility of Global Trade written by Ms.Yevgeniya Korniyenko and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-03-03 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Anecdotal evidence suggests the existence of specific choke points in the global trade network revealed especially after natural disasters (e.g. hard drive components and Thailand flooding, Japanese auto components post-Fukushima, etc.). Using a highly disaggregated international trade database we assess the spillover effects of supply shocks from the import of specific goods. Our goal is to identify inherent vulnerabilities arising from the composition of a country’s import basket and to propose effective mitigation policies. First, using network analysis tools we develop a methodology for evaluating and ranking the supply fragility of individual traded goods. Next, we create a country-level measure to determine each country’s supply shock vulnerability based on the composition of their individual import baskets. This measure evaluates the potential negative supply shock spillovers from the import of each good.
Book Synopsis Trade Costs and Inclusive Growth by : Robert R. Teh
Download or read book Trade Costs and Inclusive Growth written by Robert R. Teh and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Trade costs and inclusive growth looks at how implementation of the WTO's Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) can help to reduce trade costs and promote growth. The publication rings together contributions from ten participants in the WTO Chairs Programme, which supports trade-related activities by academic institutions in developing countries. The book looks into how the Aid for Trade initiative can assist with implementing the TFA, the importance of mainstreaming trade into national development strategies, and the potential impact of the TFA in various regions.
