The Russia Trap

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Publisher : Thomas Dunne Books
ISBN 13 : 1250316634
Total Pages : 272 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (53 download)

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Book Synopsis The Russia Trap by : George S. Beebe

Download or read book The Russia Trap written by George S. Beebe and published by Thomas Dunne Books. This book was released on 2019-09-03 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “A must read for anyone who cares about our nation's security in these cyber-serious, hair-trigger times.” – Susan Eisenhower Every American president since the end of the Cold War has called for better relations with Russia. But each has seen relations get worse by the time he left office. Now the two countries are facing off in a virtual war being fought without clear goals or boundaries. Why? Many say it is because Washington has been slow to wake up to Russian efforts to destroy democracy in America and the world. But a former head of Russia analysis at the CIA says that this misunderstands the problem. George Beebe argues that new game-changing technologies, disappearing rules of the game, and distorted perceptions on both sides are combining to lock Washington and Moscow into an escalatory spiral that they do not recognize. All the pieces are in place for a World War I-type tragedy that could be triggered by a small, unpredictable event. The Russia Trap shows that anticipating this danger is the most important step in preventing it.

Bear Traps on Russia's Road to Modernization

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Author :
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1134106890
Total Pages : 142 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (341 download)

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Book Synopsis Bear Traps on Russia's Road to Modernization by : Clifford G. Gaddy

Download or read book Bear Traps on Russia's Road to Modernization written by Clifford G. Gaddy and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-08-21 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bear Traps examines Russia’s longer term economic growth prospects. It argues that Russia’s growth challenges are conventionally misdiagnosed and examines the reasons why: a spatial misallocation that imposes excess costs on production and investment; distortions to human capital; an excessively high relative price of investment that serves as a tax on physical capital accumulation; and an economic mechanism that inhibits adjustments that would correct the misallocation. Bear Traps explains why Soviet legacies still constrain economic growth and outlines a feasible policy path that could remove these obstacles. The most popular proposals for Russian economic reform today — diversification, innovation, modernization — are misguided. They are based on a faulty diagnosis of the country’s ills, because they ignore a simple reality: Russia’s capital, both physical and human, is systematically overvalued, owing to a failure to account for the handicap imposed by geography and location. Part of the handicap is an unavoidable consequence of Russia’s size and cold climate. But another part is self-inflicted. Soviet policies placed far too much economic activity in cold, remote locations. Specific institutions in today’s Russia, notably its federalist structure, help preserve the Soviet spatial legacy. As a result, capital remains handicapped. Investments made to compensate for the handicaps of cold and distance should properly be treated as costs. Instead, they are considered net additions to capital. When returns to what appear to be large quantities of physical and human capital fail to satisfy expectations, the blame naturally goes to poor institutions, corruption, backward technology, and so on. Policy proceeds along the wrong path, with costly programs that can end up doing more damage than good. The authors insist that the goal should be to seek to remove the handicaps rather than to spend to compensate for them. They discuss how Russia could develop a modernization program that would let the nation finally focus on its economic advantages, not its handicaps.

The Confidence Trap

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Author :
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691178135
Total Pages : 424 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (911 download)

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Book Synopsis The Confidence Trap by : David Runciman

Download or read book The Confidence Trap written by David Runciman and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-10-31 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why democracies believe they can survive any crisis—and why that belief is so dangerous Why do democracies keep lurching from success to failure? The current financial crisis is just the latest example of how things continue to go wrong, just when it looked like they were going right. In this wide-ranging, original, and compelling book, David Runciman tells the story of modern democracy through the history of moments of crisis, from the First World War to the economic crash of 2008. A global history with a special focus on the United States, The Confidence Trap examines how democracy survived threats ranging from the Great Depression to the Cuban missile crisis, and from Watergate to the collapse of Lehman Brothers. It also looks at the confusion and uncertainty created by unexpected victories, from the defeat of German autocracy in 1918 to the defeat of communism in 1989. Throughout, the book pays close attention to the politicians and thinkers who grappled with these crises: from Woodrow Wilson, Nehru, and Adenauer to Fukuyama and Obama. In The Confidence Trap, David Runciman shows that democracies are good at recovering from emergencies but bad at avoiding them. The lesson democracies tend to learn from their mistakes is that they can survive them—and that no crisis is as bad as it seems. Breeding complacency rather than wisdom, crises lead to the dangerous belief that democracies can muddle through anything—a confidence trap that may lead to a crisis that is just too big to escape, if it hasn't already. The most serious challenges confronting democracy today are debt, the war on terror, the rise of China, and climate change. If democracy is to survive them, it must figure out a way to break the confidence trap.

Complaints to the Authorities in Russia

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Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781032003078
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (3 download)

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Book Synopsis Complaints to the Authorities in Russia by : Elena Bogdanova

Download or read book Complaints to the Authorities in Russia written by Elena Bogdanova and published by . This book was released on 2023-01-09 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book considers the process of legal modernization in Russia from the development of the mechanism of complaints addressed to the authorities from the pre-revolutionary period to today. It analyzes wide-ranging data and sources, collected over 17 years, such as legislation, in-depth interviews, archival materials, original texts, and examples of different methods of complaints in Soviet and contemporary Russia. Being marginal to the legal system and almost invisible for researchers of legal development, the complaint mechanism has functioned as an extremely important way of restoring justice, available to the majority of people in Russia for centuries. It has survived several historical gaps and, in a sense, acts as a thread that stitches together different eras, coexisting with the establishment and modernization of legal institutions, compensating, accompanying, and sometimes substituting for them. The research covers a period of over 100 years, and shows how and why at major historical crossroads, Russia chooses between full-fledged legal modernization and saving the authoritarian social contract between the state and society. This book will be especially useful to scholars researching Soviet society and Post-Soviet transformations, socio-legal studies, and liberal legal reforms, but will also appeal to those working in the broader fields of Russian politics, the history of Soviet society and justice issues more generally.

Destined For War

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Publisher : HarperCollins
ISBN 13 : 0544935330
Total Pages : 400 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (449 download)

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Book Synopsis Destined For War by : Graham Allison

Download or read book Destined For War written by Graham Allison and published by HarperCollins. This book was released on 2017-05-30 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NATIONAL BESTSELLER | NEW YORK TIMES NOTABLE BOOK OF THE YEAR. From an eminent international security scholar, an urgent examination of the conditions that could produce a catastrophic conflict between the United States and China—and how it might be prevented. China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants. The reason is Thucydides’s Trap: when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling one, violence is the likeliest result. Over the past five hundred years, these conditions have occurred sixteen times; war broke out in twelve. At the time of publication, an unstoppable China approached an immovable America, and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promised to make their countries “great again,” the seventeenth case was looking grim—it still is. A trade conflict, cyberattack, Korean crisis, or accident at sea could easily spark a major war. In Destined for War, eminent Harvard scholar Graham Allison masterfully blends history and current events to explain the timeless machinery of Thucydides’s Trap—and to explore the painful steps that might prevent disaster today. SHORT-LISTED FOR THE 2018 LIONEL GELBER PRIZE NAMED A BEST BOOK OF THE YEAR BY: FINANCIAL TIMES * THE TIMES (LONDON)* AMAZON “Allison is one of the keenest observers of international affairs around.” — President Joe Biden “[A] must-read book in both Washington and Beijing.” — Boston Globe “[Full of] wide-ranging, erudite case studies that span human history . . . [A] fine book.”— New York Times Book Review

Afghanistan

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Publisher : Leo Cooper Books
ISBN 13 : 9780850528602
Total Pages : 243 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (286 download)

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Book Synopsis Afghanistan by : Mohammad Yousaf

Download or read book Afghanistan written by Mohammad Yousaf and published by Leo Cooper Books. This book was released on 1992 with total page 243 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After recent events and the massive surge of interest in Afghanistan, The Bear Trap is being re-published for the first time in paperback after the last few copies of the hardback were snapped up recently by US Military Intelligence. This is the story of the defeat of Soviet Russia's forces by a guerrilla force known as the Mujahideen, heavily backed by Pakistan and the USA. The Mujahideen paved the way for the Taliban regime, to exist having all but defeated the Russian Army in the late 80's. The author, Brigadier Mohammad Yousaf, was head of the Afghan Bureau of Pakistan's Inter-Service Intelligence and as such was effectively the Mujahideens commander-in-chief. He controlled the flow of thousands of tons of arms across Pakistan and into its occupied neighbour, arms that were bought with CIA and Saudi Arabian funds from the USA. One of the Mujahideens close allies was none other than Osama Bin Laden. This compelling book was put together with great skill the by military historian, Mark Adkin in conjunction with Brigadier Mohammad Yousaf and is essential reading for anyone interested in the truth behind the Afghanistan War which led to the conditions that exist there today.It describes in detail the terrain over which the war was fought, the training that was needed and how the Mujahideen carried out ambushes, assassinations, raids and rocket attacks deep into Afghanistan territory.

Russia Resurrected

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Author :
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0190860731
Total Pages : 272 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (98 download)

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Book Synopsis Russia Resurrected by : Kathryn E. Stoner

Download or read book Russia Resurrected written by Kathryn E. Stoner and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2020-09-01 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An assessment of Russia that suggests that we should look beyond traditional means of power to understand its strength and capacity to disrupt international politics. Too often, we are told that Russia plays a weak hand well. But, perhaps the nation's cards are better than we know. Russia ranks significantly behind the US and China by traditional measures of power: GDP, population size and health, and military might. Yet 25 years removed from its mid-1990s nadir following the collapse of the USSR, Russia has become a supremely disruptive force in world politics. Kathryn E. Stoner assesses the resurrection of Russia and argues that we should look beyond traditional means of power to assess its strength in global affairs. Taking into account how Russian domestic politics under Vladimir Putin influence its foreign policy, Stoner explains how Russia has battled its way back to international prominence. From Russia's seizure of the Crimea from Ukraine to its military support for the Assad regime in Syria, the country has reasserted itself as a major global power. Stoner examines these developments and more in tackling the big questions about Russia's turnaround and global future. Stoner marshals data on Russia's political, economic, and social development and uncovers key insights from its domestic politics. Russian people are wealthier than the Chinese, debt is low, and fiscal policy is good despite sanctions and the volatile global economy. Vladimir Putin's autocratic regime faces virtually no organized domestic opposition. Yet, mindful of maintaining control at home, Russia under Putin also uses its varied power capacities to extend its influence abroad. While we often underestimate Russia's global influence, the consequences are evident in the disruption of politics in the US, Syria, and Venezuela, to name a few. Russia Resurrected is an eye-opening reassessment of the country, identifying the actual sources of its power in international politics and why it has been able to redefine the post-Cold War global order.

The American Trap

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Author :
Publisher : Hodder & Stoughton
ISBN 13 : 1529326885
Total Pages : 336 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (293 download)

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Book Synopsis The American Trap by : Frédéric Pierucci

Download or read book The American Trap written by Frédéric Pierucci and published by Hodder & Stoughton. This book was released on 2019-11-14 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 2014, France lost part of the control of its nuclear power plants to the United States. Frédéric Pierucci, former senior executive of one of Alstom's power company subsidiaries, found himself at the heart of this state scandal. His story goes to the very core of how he plotted the key features of the secret economic war that the United States is waging in Europe. And after being silenced for a long time, he has decided, with the help of journalist Matthieu Aron, to reveal all. In April 2013, Frédéric Pierucci was arrested in New York by the FBI and accused of bribery. The US authorities imprisoned him for more than two years - including fourteen months in a notorious maximum-security prison. In doing so, they forced Alstom to pay the biggest financial penalty ever imposed by the United States. In the end, Alstom also gave up areas of control to General Electric, its biggest American competitor. Frédéric's story unpacks how the United States is using corporate law as an economic weapon against its own allies. One after the other, some of the world's largest companies are being actively destabilised to the benefit of the US, in acts of economic sabotage that seem to be the beginning of what's to come...

Putin's World

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Publisher : Hachette UK
ISBN 13 : 1455533017
Total Pages : 495 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (555 download)

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Book Synopsis Putin's World by : Angela Stent

Download or read book Putin's World written by Angela Stent and published by Hachette UK. This book was released on 2019-02-26 with total page 495 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this revised version that includes an exclusive new chapter on the Russia-Ukraine war, renowned foreign policy expert Angela Stent examines how Putin created a paranoid and polarized world—and increased Russia's status on the global stage. How did Russia manage to emerge resurgent on the world stage and play a weak hand so effectively? Is it because Putin is a brilliant strategist? Or has Russia stepped into a vacuum created by the West's distraction with its own domestic problems and US ambivalence about whether it still wants to act as a superpower? Putin's World examines the country's turbulent past, how it has influenced Putin, the Russians' understanding of their position on the global stage and their future ambitions—and their conviction that the West has tried to deny them a seat at the table of great powers since the USSR collapsed. This book looks at Russia's key relationships—its downward spiral with the United States, Europe, and NATO; its ties to China, Japan, the Middle East; and with its neighbors, particularly the fraught relationship with Ukraine. Putin's World will help Americans understand how and why the post-Cold War era has given way to a new, more dangerous world, one in which Russia poses a challenge to the United States in every corner of the globe—and one in which Russia has become a toxic and divisive subject in US politics.

The Agony of the Russian Idea

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Author :
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400822157
Total Pages : 212 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis The Agony of the Russian Idea by : Tim McDaniel

Download or read book The Agony of the Russian Idea written by Tim McDaniel and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 1998-07-13 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Boris Yeltsin's attempts at democratic reform have plunged a long troubled Russia even further into turmoil. This dramatic break with the Soviet past has left Russia politically fragmented and riddled with corruption, its people with little hope for the future. In a fascinating account for anyone interested in Russia's current political struggles, Tim McDaniel explores the inability of all its leaders over the last two centuries--tsars and Communist rulers alike--to create the foundations of a viable modern society. The problem then and now, he argues, is rooted in a cultural trap endemic to Russian society and linked to a unique sense of destiny embodied by the "Russian idea." In its most basic sense, the Russian idea is the belief that Russia can forge a path in the modern world that sets itself apart from the West through adherence to shared beliefs, community, and equality. These cultural values, according to McDaniel, have mainly reversed the values of Western society rather than having provided a real alternative to them. By relying on the Russian idea in their programs of change, dictatorial governments almost unavoidably precipitated social breakdown. When the Yeltsin government declared war on the Communist past, it broke with deeply held Russian values and traditions. McDaniel shows that in cutting people off from their pasts and promoting the West as the sole model of modernity, the reformers have simultaneously undermined the foundations of Russian morality and the people's sense of a future. Unwittingly, the Yeltsin government has thereby annihilated its own authority. McDaniel lived in Russia for three years during both the Communist and post-Communist periods. Basing his analysis on broad historical research, extensive travels, countless interviews and conversations, and friendships with Russians from all walks of life, McDaniel emphasizes the perils of assuming that Russians understand the world in the same way that we do, and so can and should become like us. Challenging and provocative in its claims, this book is intended for anyone seeking to understand Russia's attempts to create a new society.

The Aid Trap

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Author :
Publisher : Columbia University Press
ISBN 13 : 0231519508
Total Pages : 217 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (315 download)

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Book Synopsis The Aid Trap by : R. Glenn Hubbard

Download or read book The Aid Trap written by R. Glenn Hubbard and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2009-08-31 with total page 217 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past twenty years more citizens in China and India have raised themselves out of poverty than anywhere else at any time in history. They accomplished this through the local business sector the leading source of prosperity for all rich countries. In most of Africa and other poor regions the business sector is weak, but foreign aid continues to fund government and NGOs. Switching aid to the local business sector in order to cultivate a middle class is the oldest, surest, and only way to eliminate poverty in poor countries. A bold fusion of ethics and smart business, The Aid Trap shows how the same energy, goodwill, and money that we devote to charity can help local business thrive. R. Glenn Hubbard and William Duggan, two leading scholars in business and finance, demonstrate that by diverting a major share of charitable aid into the local business sector of poor countries, citizens can take the lead in the growth of their own economies. Although the aid system supports noble goals, a local well-digging company cannot compete with a foreign charity that digs wells for free. By investing in that local company a sustainable system of development can take root.

The Future Is History

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Author :
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 159463453X
Total Pages : 530 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (946 download)

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Book Synopsis The Future Is History by : Masha Gessen

Download or read book The Future Is History written by Masha Gessen and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2017-10-03 with total page 530 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: WINNER OF THE 2017 NATIONAL BOOK AWARD IN NONFICTION FINALIST FOR THE NATIONAL BOOK CRITICS CIRCLE AWARDS WINNER OF THE NEW YORK PUBLIC LIBRARY'S HELEN BERNSTEIN BOOK AWARD NAMED A BEST BOOK OF 2017 BY THE NEW YORK TIMES BOOK REVIEW, LOS ANGELES TIMES, WASHINGTON POST, BOSTON GLOBE, SEATTLE TIMES, CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, NEWSWEEK, PASTE, and POP SUGAR The essential journalist and bestselling biographer of Vladimir Putin reveals how, in the space of a generation, Russia surrendered to a more virulent and invincible new strain of autocracy. Award-winning journalist Masha Gessen's understanding of the events and forces that have wracked Russia in recent times is unparalleled. In The Future Is History, Gessen follows the lives of four people born at what promised to be the dawn of democracy. Each of them came of age with unprecedented expectations, some as the children and grandchildren of the very architects of the new Russia, each with newfound aspirations of their own--as entrepreneurs, activists, thinkers, and writers, sexual and social beings. Gessen charts their paths against the machinations of the regime that would crush them all, and against the war it waged on understanding itself, which ensured the unobstructed reemergence of the old Soviet order in the form of today's terrifying and seemingly unstoppable mafia state. Powerful and urgent, The Future Is History is a cautionary tale for our time and for all time.

Can Russia Modernise?

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Author :
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1107310431
Total Pages : 331 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (73 download)

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Book Synopsis Can Russia Modernise? by : Alena V. Ledeneva

Download or read book Can Russia Modernise? written by Alena V. Ledeneva and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-02-14 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this original, bottom-up account of the evolution of contemporary Russia, Alena Ledeneva seeks to reveal how informal power operates. Concentrating on Vladimir Putin's system of governance - referred to as sistema - she identifies four key types of networks: his inner circle, useful friends, core contacts and more diffuse ties and connections. These networks serve sistema but also serve themselves. Reliance on networks enables leaders to mobilise and to control, yet they also lock politicians, bureaucrats and businessmen into informal deals, mediated interests and personalised loyalty. This is the 'modernisation trap of informality': one cannot use the potential of informal networks without triggering their negative long-term consequences for institutional development. Ledeneva's perspective on informal power is based on in-depth interviews with sistema insiders and enhanced by evidence of its workings brought to light in court cases, enabling her to draw broad conclusions about the prospects for Russia's political institutions.

Weak Strongman

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Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691246289
Total Pages : 304 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (912 download)

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Book Synopsis Weak Strongman by : Timothy Frye

Download or read book Weak Strongman written by Timothy Frye and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2022-09-27 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Media and public discussion tends to understand Russian politics as a direct reflection of Vladimir Putin's seeming omnipotence or Russia's unique history and culture. Yet Russia is remarkably similar to other autocracies -- and recognizing this illuminates the inherent limits to Putin's power. Weak Strongman challenges the conventional wisdom about Putin's Russia, highlighting the difficult trade-offs that confront the Kremlin on issues ranging from election fraud and repression to propaganda and foreign policy. Drawing on three decades of his own on-the-ground experience and research as well as insights from a new generation of social scientists that have received little attention outside academia, Timothy Frye reveals how much we overlook about today's Russia when we focus solely on Putin or Russian exceptionalism. Frye brings a new understanding to a host of crucial questions: How popular is Putin? Is Russian propaganda effective? Why are relations with the West so fraught? Can Russian cyber warriors really swing foreign elections? In answering these and other questions, Frye offers a highly accessible reassessment of Russian politics that highlights the challenges of governing Russia and the nature of modern autocracy. Rich in personal anecdotes and cutting-edge social science, Weak Strongman offers the best evidence available about how Russia actually works"--

Escaping the Self-Determination Trap

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Author :
Publisher : BRILL
ISBN 13 : 904742834X
Total Pages : 224 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (474 download)

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Book Synopsis Escaping the Self-Determination Trap by : Marc Weller

Download or read book Escaping the Self-Determination Trap written by Marc Weller and published by BRILL. This book was released on 2009-01-29 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is new movement in the discussion about self-determination and statehood. The contested declaration of independence by Kosovo and Russia’s recognition of the purported independence of Abkhasia and South Ossetia have caused significant controversy. These developments may well put an end to the attempt by governments to keep in place the highly restricted doctrine of self-determination that has previously only been made available in the colonial context. This monograph argues that classical self-determination, narrowly conceived in the colonial context. cannot contribute to the resolution of the presently ongoing self-determination conflicts around the world. However, this study finds that over the past few years a new practice of addressing self-determination conflicts has emerged. This practice significantly extends our understanding of the legal right to self-determination and of the means that can be brought to bear in terminating secessionist conflicts.

Russian Foreign Policy

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Author :
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN 13 : 1442208244
Total Pages : 358 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (422 download)

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Book Synopsis Russian Foreign Policy by : Jeffrey Mankoff

Download or read book Russian Foreign Policy written by Jeffrey Mankoff and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2011 with total page 358 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduction: the guns of August -- Contours of Russian foreign policy -- Bulldogs fighting under the rug: the making of Russian foreign policy -- Resetting expectations: Russia and the United States -- Europe: between integration and confrontation -- Rising China and Russia's Asian vector -- Playing with home field advantage? Russia and its post-Soviet neighbors -- Conclusion: dealing with Russia's foreign policy reawakening.

The Democracy Trap

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Author :
Publisher : Dutton Adult
ISBN 13 : 9780525933717
Total Pages : 312 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (337 download)

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Book Synopsis The Democracy Trap by : Graham E. Fuller

Download or read book The Democracy Trap written by Graham E. Fuller and published by Dutton Adult. This book was released on 1991 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Soon after the toppling of the Berlin Wall, a scholar named Francis Fukuyama wrote a piece in The New York Times stating that the momentous events occurring in Eastern Europe signalled "the end of history", as a result of the final failure of the communist experiment. Here is a powerful rebuttal that warns global democracy will cause not less but more conflict.