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The Persistance Of Emerging Market Equity Flows
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Book Synopsis The Persistence of Emerging Market Equity Flows by : Jessica D. Tjornhom
Download or read book The Persistence of Emerging Market Equity Flows written by Jessica D. Tjornhom and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The portfolio flows of institutional investors have been found to be highly persistent across countries and individual investment funds. This paper investigates the source of this persistence in emerging market equities. We employ the decomposition methodology of Froot and Tjornhom (2002), which decomposes the persistence of flows into four components: (i) own-country, own-fund persistence (which might arise from informed trading within each country by individual funds); (ii) own-country, cross-fund persistence (which might arise from asynchronicities across funds); (iii) cross-country, own-fund persistence (which might arise from asynchonicities within a fund) and (iv) cross-country, cross-fund persistence (which might arise from other reaction lags such as contagion across both countries and funds). We find evidence that all four components are positive in emerging markets. Our results differ from those in developed countries, in that we attribute approximately 10%-20% of total persistence to cross-country effects (iii) and (iv). These findings are consistent with stories of contagion, which suggest that demand shifts move predictably from one country to another. They cannot easily be explained by informed trading alone or by wealth effects.
Book Synopsis The Persistence of Capital Inflows and the Behaviour of Stock Prices in East Asia Emerging Markets by : Lucio Sarno
Download or read book The Persistence of Capital Inflows and the Behaviour of Stock Prices in East Asia Emerging Markets written by Lucio Sarno and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Capital Flows are Fickle by : Mr.John C Bluedorn
Download or read book Capital Flows are Fickle written by Mr.John C Bluedorn and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-08-22 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Has the unprecedented financial globalization of recent years changed the behavior of capital flows across countries? Using a newly constructed database of gross and net capital flows since 1980 for a sample of nearly 150 countries, this paper finds that private capital flows are typically volatile for all countries, advanced or emerging, across all points in time. This holds true across most types of flows, including bank, portfolio debt, and equity flows. Advanced economies enjoy a greater substitutability between types of inflows, and complementarity between gross inflows and outflows, than do emerging markets, which reduces the volatility of their total net inflows despite higher volatility of the components. Capital flows also exhibit low persistence, across all economies and across most types of flows. Inflows tend to rise temporarily when global financing conditions are relatively easy. These findings suggest that fickle capital flows are an unavoidable fact of life to which policymakers across all countries need to continue to manage and adapt.
Book Synopsis Emerging Market Portfolio Flows by : Mr.Serkan Arslanalp
Download or read book Emerging Market Portfolio Flows written by Mr.Serkan Arslanalp and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-12-17 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Portfolio flows to emerging markets (EMs) tend to be correlated. A possible explanation is the role global benchmarks play in allocating capital internationally, the so-called “benchmark effect.” This paper finds that benchmark-driven investors indeed play a large role in a key segment of the market—the EM local currency government bond market—, accounting for more than one third of total foreign holdings as of end-2014. We find that the prominence of these investors declined somewhat after the May 2013 taper tantrum, but remain high. This distinction is important in understanding the drivers of EM capital flows and their sensitivity to different types of shocks. In particular, a high share of benchmark-driven investors may result in capital flows that are more sensitive to global shocks and less sensitive to country factors.
Book Synopsis The Volatility of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets by : Maria Sole Pagliari
Download or read book The Volatility of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets written by Maria Sole Pagliari and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-03-07 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Capital flow volatility is a concern for macroeconomic and financial stability. Nonetheless, literature is scarce in this topic. Our paper sheds light on this issue in two dimensions. First, using quarterly data for 65 countries over the period 1970Q1-2016Q1, we construct three measures of volatility, for total capital flows and key instruments. Second, we perform panel regressions to understand the determinants of volatility. The measures show that the volatility of all instruments is prone to bouts, rising sharply during global shocks like the taper tantrum episode. Capital flow volatility thus remains a challenge for policy makers. The regression results suggest that push factors can be more important than pull factors in explaining volatility, illustrating that the characteristics of volatility can be different from those of the flows levels.
Book Synopsis Portfolio Investment Flows to Emerging Markets by : Sudarshan Gooptu
Download or read book Portfolio Investment Flows to Emerging Markets written by Sudarshan Gooptu and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1993 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Persistance of Emerging Market Equity Flows by : Jessica Tjornhom Donohue
Download or read book The Persistance of Emerging Market Equity Flows written by Jessica Tjornhom Donohue and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Dynamics of Emerging Market Equity Flows by : Geert Bekaert
Download or read book The Dynamics of Emerging Market Equity Flows written by Geert Bekaert and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the interrelationship between capital flows, returns, dividend yields and world interest rates in 20 emerging markets. We estimate a vector autoregressionn with these variables to measure the degree to which lower interest rates contribute to increased capital flows and shocks in flows affect the cost of capital among other dynamic relations. We precede the VAR analysis by a detailed examination of endogenous break points in capital flows and the other variables. These structural breaks are traced to the liberalization of emerging equity markets. Our evidence of structural breaks call into question past research which estimates VAR models over the full sample. After a liberalization, we find that equity flows increase by 1.4% of market capitalization. We also show that shocks in equity flows initially increase returns which is consistent with a price pressure hypothesis. While the effect is diminished over time, there also appears to be a permenant impact. This is consistent with our finding that our proxy for the cost of capital, dividend yields, decreases. Finally, our analysis of the transitition dynamics from pre-liberalization to post-liberalization suggests that when capital leaves, it leaves faster than it came in. These results may help us understand the dynamics of the recent crises in Latin America and East Asia.
Book Synopsis Emerging Market Capital Flows by : Richard M. Levich
Download or read book Emerging Market Capital Flows written by Richard M. Levich and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 464 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a little over one decade, the spread of market-oriented policies has turned the once so-called lesser developed countries into emerging markets. Many forces have been responsible for the tremendous growth in emerging markets. Trends toward market-oriented policies that permit private ownership of economic activities, such as public utilities and telecommunications, are part of the explanation. Corporate restructuring, following the debt crisis of the early 1980's has permitted many emerging market companies to gain international competitiveness. And an essential condition, a basic sea-change in economic policy, has opened up many emerging markets to international investors. This growth in emerging markets has been accompanied by volatility in individual markets, and a sector-wide shock after the meltdown in the Mexican Bolsa and Mexican peso, resulting in heated debate over the nature of these markets. Emerging market capital flows continue to be the subject of intense discussion around the world among investors, academics, and policymakers. Emerging Market Capital Flows examines the issues of emerging market capital flows from several distinct perspectives, addressing a number of related questions about emerging markets.
Book Synopsis The Drivers of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets Post Global Financial Crisis by : Swarnali Ahmed Hannan
Download or read book The Drivers of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets Post Global Financial Crisis written by Swarnali Ahmed Hannan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-03-10 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a sample of 34 emerging markets and developing economies over the period 2009Q3-2015Q4, the paper employs a panel framework to study the determinants of capital flows, both net and gross, across a wide range of instruments. The baseline regressions are then extended to focus on high and low episodes – quarters with flows one standard deviation above/below mean. Overall, the results suggest that the capital flow slowdown witnessed in recent years is due to a combination of lower growth prospects of recipient countries and worse global risk sentiment. However, the determinants of flows can be considerably different across instruments and across the type of flows considered, net or gross. The sensitivity of certain types of flows, towards push and pull factors, increases during periods of high and low capital flows. Moreover, some variables may not necessarily be significant during normal times, but can be important drivers during such episodes, and vice versa. Indicators like the gap between the U.S. long- and short-term maturity bond yields – not significant during normal times – can be an important driver during high episodes.
Book Synopsis Revisiting the Determinants of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets--A Survey of the Evolving Literature by : Swarnali Ahmed Hannan
Download or read book Revisiting the Determinants of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets--A Survey of the Evolving Literature written by Swarnali Ahmed Hannan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-09-28 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper documents the evolution of gross and net capital flows to emerging market economies and surveys the large literature on the potential drivers. While the capital flow landscape has been shaped by the evolution of both global and country-specific factors, the relative importance of these factors has varied over time and differs depending on the type of capital flows. The findings from the survey of the literature thus underscores the importance of policies in both source and recipient countries in shaping capital flows.
Book Synopsis On the Performance of Emerging Market Equity Mutual Funds by : Joop Huij
Download or read book On the Performance of Emerging Market Equity Mutual Funds written by Joop Huij and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We document persistence in the performance of emerging market equity funds and find some notable differences compared to US funds. First, the contribution of winner funds to the return spread between winner and losers is substantially larger for emerging market funds. Second, only a small portion of the return spread between winners and losers can be attributed to momentum effects in emerging markets. Third, while US winner funds have been documented to underperform benchmark factors correcting for size, value and momentum effects by the magnitude of their expenses, winner funds in emerging markets generate returns that are sufficiently large enough to cover their expenses. Overall, our findings suggest that emerging market funds generally display better performance than US funds.
Book Synopsis Portfolio Flows, Global Risk Aversion and Asset Prices in Emerging Markets by : Nasha Ananchotikul
Download or read book Portfolio Flows, Global Risk Aversion and Asset Prices in Emerging Markets written by Nasha Ananchotikul and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-08-19 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, portfolio flows to emerging markets have become increasingly large and volatile. Using weekly portfolio fund flows data, the paper finds that their short-run dynamics are driven mostly by global “push” factors. To what extent do these cross-border flows and global risk aversion drive asset volatility in emerging markets? We use a Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) Multivariate GARCH framework to estimate the impact of portfolio flows and the VIX index on three asset prices, namely equity returns, bond yields and exchange rates, in 17 emerging economies. The analysis shows that global risk aversion has a significant impact on the volatility of asset prices, while the magnitude of that impact correlates with country characteristics, including financial openness, the exchange rate regime, as well as macroeconomic fundamentals such as inflation and the current account balance. In line with earlier literature, portfolio flows to emerging markets are also found to affect the level of asset prices, as was the case in particular during the global financial crisis.
Book Synopsis Decomposing the Persistence of International Equity Flows by : Kenneth Froot
Download or read book Decomposing the Persistence of International Equity Flows written by Kenneth Froot and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The portfolio flows of institutional investors are widely known to be persistent. What is less well known, is the source of this persistence. One possibility is the 'informed trading hypothesis': that persistence arises from autocorrelated trades of investors who believe they have information about value and who face an imperfectly liquid market. Another possibility is that there are asynchroneities with respect to investment decisions across funds, across investments, or both. These asynchroneities could be due to wealth effects (across investments for a single fund), investor herding (across funds for a single investment), or generalized contagion (across funds and across investments). We use daily data on institutional flows into 21 developed countries by 471 funds to measure and decompose aggregate flow persistence. We find that the informed trading hypothesis explains about 75% of total persistence, and that the remaining amount is attributed entirely to cross-fund own-country persistence. In other words, we find statistically and economically significant flow asynchroneities across funds investing in the same country. There are no meaningful asynchroneities across countries, either within a given fund, or across funds. The cross-fund flow lags we identify might result from different fund investment processes, or from some funds mimicking others' decisions. We reject the hypothesis that wealth effects explain persistence.
Book Synopsis International Capital Flows by : Martin Feldstein
Download or read book International Capital Flows written by Martin Feldstein and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-12-01 with total page 500 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent changes in technology, along with the opening up of many regions previously closed to investment, have led to explosive growth in the international movement of capital. Flows from foreign direct investment and debt and equity financing can bring countries substantial gains by augmenting local savings and by improving technology and incentives. Investing companies acquire market access, lower cost inputs, and opportunities for profitable introductions of production methods in the countries where they invest. But, as was underscored recently by the economic and financial crises in several Asian countries, capital flows can also bring risks. Although there is no simple explanation of the currency crisis in Asia, it is clear that fixed exchange rates and chronic deficits increased the likelihood of a breakdown. Similarly, during the 1970s, the United States and other industrial countries loaned OPEC surpluses to borrowers in Latin America. But when the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates to control soaring inflation, the result was a widespread debt moratorium in Latin America as many countries throughout the region struggled to pay the high interest on their foreign loans. International Capital Flows contains recent work by eminent scholars and practitioners on the experience of capital flows to Latin America, Asia, and eastern Europe. These papers discuss the role of banks, equity markets, and foreign direct investment in international capital flows, and the risks that investors and others face with these transactions. By focusing on capital flows' productivity and determinants, and the policy issues they raise, this collection is a valuable resource for economists, policymakers, and financial market participants.
Book Synopsis The Dynamics of Emerging Market Equity Flows by : Geert Bekaert
Download or read book The Dynamics of Emerging Market Equity Flows written by Geert Bekaert and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the interrelationship between capital flows, returns, dividend yields and world interest rates in 20 emerging markets. We use a structural VAR framework to examine the impact of shocks in interest rates and net capital flows on asset returns and the cost of capital. In contrast to previous research, we explicitly take into account a fundamental nonstationarity in the data - structural breaks induced by liberalizations. We estimate our VARs in both the full sample, pre-break and the post-break sample, with the breaks endogenously determined. We find significant differences, in particular, between the pre-break analysis and the post-break analysis. We revisit a number of important hypotheses within the VAR framework. First, the quot;push effectquot; from world interest rates to capital flows appears consistently when we cumulate impulse responses whereas contemporaneously interest rates and capital flows show no consistent correlation pattern. Second, unexpected shocks to equity flows have a strongly positive contemporaneous effect on returns, in line with the findings of Clark and Berko (1997), and Froot et al. (1998). The effect immediately dies out but there is only incomplete reversal suggesting some of the effect is permanent. This is consistent with our finding that positive shocks in net equity capital flows lead to lower dividend yields -- our proxy for expected returns. Following Bekaert and Harvey's (1999) argument that dividend yield changes reveal information about the cost of equity capital, the equity capital flow shocks lead to lower cost of capital in many countries. We find that this relation is dramatically strengthened if we estimate our VARs on the post break sample. Although part of the initial effect may be due to quot;price pressurequot;, our results suggest part of the response is near permanent and beneficial. Third, we revisit the Bohn and Tesar (1996) argument that capital flows are more likely driven by quot;return chasingquot; than portfolio rebalancing. We find evidence that positive returns shocks are followed by increased short-term equity capital flows. Finally, we provide interesting new results on the transition from pre-break to post-break systems. In almost all the countries we examine, our transition analysis of equity flows suggests that when capital leaves it leaves faster than it came. These intriguing results may shed light on the recent crises in Latin America and Asia and the role of capital flight.
Book Synopsis Emerging Market Volatility by : Ms.Ratna Sahay
Download or read book Emerging Market Volatility written by Ms.Ratna Sahay and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-10-02 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Accommodative monetary policies in advanced economies have spurred increased capital inflows into emerging markets since the global financial crisis. Starting in May 2013, when the Federal Reserve publicly discussed its plans for tapering unconventional monetary policies, these emerging markets have experienced financial turbulence at the same that their domestic economic activity has slowed. This paper examines their experiences and policy responses and draws broad policy lessons. For emerging markets, good macroeconomic fundamentals matter, and early and decisive measures to strengthen macroeconomic policies and reduce vulnerabilities help dampen market reactions to external shocks. For advanced economies, clear and effective communication about the exit from unconventional monetary policy can and did help later to reduce the risk of excessive market volatility. And for the global community, enhanced global cooperation, including a strong global financial safety net, offers emerging markets effective protection against excessive volatility.
