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The Market For Inflation Risk
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Book Synopsis Inflation Expectations by : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Download or read book Inflation Markets written by Paul Canty and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timely and much needed resource for those new to the topic and the market from a variety of backgrounds. The book provides you with a complete and consistent framework in which to understand and analyse inflation markets, you will gain invaluable practical knowledge of managing and hedging inflation risks.
Book Synopsis Inflation Risks and Products by : Brice Benaben
Download or read book Inflation Risks and Products written by Brice Benaben and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 657 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explains in detail both the connection of financial instruments with inflation risk, and what are the opportunities in the inflation-linked products today and their strategic application in the future. This multi-contributor book allows professionals to learn from the sector's foremost experts, and is written for product structurers, inflation traders, corporate and financial institution treasurers, and hedge fund managers.
Book Synopsis Strategic Asset Allocation by : John Y. Campbell
Download or read book Strategic Asset Allocation written by John Y. Campbell and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2002-01-03 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Academic finance has had a remarkable impact on many financial services. Yet long-term investors have received curiously little guidance from academic financial economists. Mean-variance analysis, developed almost fifty years ago, has provided a basic paradigm for portfolio choice. This approach usefully emphasizes the ability of diversification to reduce risk, but it ignores several critically important factors. Most notably, the analysis is static; it assumes that investors care only about risks to wealth one period ahead. However, many investors—-both individuals and institutions such as charitable foundations or universities—-seek to finance a stream of consumption over a long lifetime. In addition, mean-variance analysis treats financial wealth in isolation from income. Long-term investors typically receive a stream of income and use it, along with financial wealth, to support their consumption. At the theoretical level, it is well understood that the solution to a long-term portfolio choice problem can be very different from the solution to a short-term problem. Long-term investors care about intertemporal shocks to investment opportunities and labor income as well as shocks to wealth itself, and they may use financial assets to hedge their intertemporal risks. This should be important in practice because there is a great deal of empirical evidence that investment opportunities—-both interest rates and risk premia on bonds and stocks—-vary through time. Yet this insight has had little influence on investment practice because it is hard to solve for optimal portfolios in intertemporal models. This book seeks to develop the intertemporal approach into an empirical paradigm that can compete with the standard mean-variance analysis. The book shows that long-term inflation-indexed bonds are the riskless asset for long-term investors, it explains the conditions under which stocks are safer assets for long-term than for short-term investors, and it shows how labor income influences portfolio choice. These results shed new light on the rules of thumb used by financial planners. The book explains recent advances in both analytical and numerical methods, and shows how they can be used to understand the portfolio choice problems of long-term investors.
Book Synopsis Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies by : Jongrim Ha
Download or read book Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies written by Jongrim Ha and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-02-24 with total page 524 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.
Book Synopsis The Truth About Inflation by : Paul Donovan
Download or read book The Truth About Inflation written by Paul Donovan and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2015-03-27 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is a simple topic, in that the basic concepts are something that everyone can understand. However, inflation is not a simplistic topic. The composition of inflation and what the different inflation measures try to represent cannot be summarised with a single line on a chart or a casual reference to a solitary data point. Investors very often fail to understand the detail behind inflation, and end up making bad investment decisions as a result. The Truth About Inflation does not set out to forecast inflation, but to help improve its understanding, so that investors can make better decisions to achieve the real returns that they need. Starting with a summary of long history of inflation, the drivers of price change are considered. Many of the "urban myths" that have built up about inflation are shown to be a consequence of irrational judgement or political scaremongering. Some behaviour, like the unhealthy veneration of gold as a means of inflation protection, is shown to be the result of historical accident. In the modern era of lower nominal investment returns, inflation inequality (whereby some groups experience persistently higher inflation than others) is a very important consideration. This book sets out the realities of price changes in the modern investing environment, without using economic equations or jargon. It gives investors the framework they need to think about inflation and how to protect themselves against it, whether the aggregate inflation of the future rises or falls from current levels.
Book Synopsis International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards by :
Download or read book International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards written by and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2004 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Inflation-Targeting Debate by : Ben S. Bernanke
Download or read book The Inflation-Targeting Debate written by Ben S. Bernanke and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 469 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past fifteen years, a significant number of industrialized and middle-income countries have adopted inflation targeting as a framework for monetary policymaking. As the name suggests, in such inflation-targeting regimes, the central bank is responsible for achieving a publicly announced target for the inflation rate. While the objective of controlling inflation enjoys wide support among both academic experts and policymakers, and while the countries that have followed this model have generally experienced good macroeconomic outcomes, many important questions about inflation targeting remain. In Inflation Targeting, a distinguished group of contributors explores the many underexamined dimensions of inflation targeting—its potential, its successes, and its limitations—from both a theoretical and an empirical standpoint, and for both developed and emerging economies. The volume opens with a discussion of the optimal formulation of inflation-targeting policy and continues with a debate about the desirability of such a model for the United States. The concluding chapters discuss the special problems of inflation targeting in emerging markets, including the Czech Republic, Poland, and Hungary.
Book Synopsis The Great Inflation by : Michael D. Bordo
Download or read book The Great Inflation written by Michael D. Bordo and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-06-28 with total page 545 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.
Book Synopsis Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability by : Michael Heise
Download or read book Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability written by Michael Heise and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-02-26 with total page 119 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the financial crisis of 2008/09, the world’s major central banks have been struggling to return their economies to higher growth and to reach their inflation targets. This concise book analyzes the importance of central bank policies for the economy, and specifically investigates the reasons why they have failed to steer inflation as desired. The author, the Chief Economist at Allianz SE, argues that, in an environment of great uncertainty concerning the pass-through of monetary stimulus to the economy, central banks should not focus too narrowly on inflation targets, but should increasingly take the side effects of their actions into account. In particular, he contends that they must seek to minimize the risk of financial booms and busts in order to maximize long-term growth and prosperity. Building on existing research and contributing to the current debate, the book offers a valuable reference guide and food for thought for policymakers, professionals and students alike.
Download or read book Deep Risk written by William J. Bernstein and published by . This book was released on 2013-08 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This booklet takes portfolio design beyond the familiar "black box" mean-variance framework. Most importantly, the short-term volatility of financial assets, commonly measured as standard deviation, is a highly imperfect measure of the actual long-horizon perils faced by real-world investors subject to the vagaries of financial and military history. These risks have names--inflation, deflation, confiscation, and devastation--and any useful discussion of portfolio design of necessity incorporates their probabilities, consequences, and costs of mitigation ... This booklet contains ... with luck, a framework within income and all-equity portfolios. This booklet contains ... with luck, a framework within which to think more clearly about risk. Note: the entire Investing for Adults series is not for beginners.
Book Synopsis The End of Finance by : Jan Toporowski
Download or read book The End of Finance written by Jan Toporowski and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2002-03-11 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume develops an original critique of the belief that the present era of finance, where finance markets dominate contemporary capitalist economies, represents the best possible way of organising economic affairs. In fact, it is argued, the ensuing economic instability and inefficiency create the preconditions for the end of the dominance of finance. The End of Finance develops a theory of capital market inflation rooted in the work of Veblen, Kalecki, Keynes and Minsky, demonstrating how it disinclines productive activity on the part of firms, provides only short-term conditions that are propitious for privatisation and distorts monetary policy in the long-term. The author examines the role of pension fund schemes and financial derivatives in transmitting capital market inflation and provides a nuanced analysis of the contradictory role they play in the financial system. Capital market inflation is also examined in its historical context and compared with past inflations, in particular the South Sea and Mississippi Bubbles, which spawned the first financial derivatives, and the first privatisations. This broad historical vision allows us to see these forms of inflation as temporary and provisional in character.
Book Synopsis What Measure of Inflation Should a Developing Country Central Bank Target? by : Rahul Anand
Download or read book What Measure of Inflation Should a Developing Country Central Bank Target? written by Rahul Anand and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-09-28 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In closed or open economy models with complete markets, targeting core inflation enables monetary policy to maximize welfare by replicating the flexible price equilibrium. We analyze this result in the context of developing economies, where a large proportion of households are credit constrained and the share of food expenditures in total consumption expenditures is high. We develop an open economy model with incomplete financial markets to show that headline inflation targeting improves welfare outcomes. We also compute the optimal price index, which includes a positive weight on food prices but, unlike headline inflation, assigns zero weight to import prices.
Book Synopsis Inflation-indexed Securities by : Mark Deacon
Download or read book Inflation-indexed Securities written by Mark Deacon and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2004-04-21 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global market for inflation-indexed securities has ballooned in recent years, and this trend is set to continue. This book examines the rationale behind issuance and investment decisions, and details the issues facing anyone who designs indexed securities, illustrating them wherever possible with actual examples from the international capital markets. In particular, an extensive review of indexed debt markets throughout the world is provided - including for the first time, a comprehensive and consistent set of cash flow and price-yield equations for the instruments already in existence in the major bond markets - forming an important reference for those already experienced in the field, as well as practitioners and academics approaching the subject for the first time. The book also provides unique insight into the development of inflation-indexed derivative products, and the analytical tools required to value such instruments.
Book Synopsis Financial Risk Forecasting by : Jon Danielsson
Download or read book Financial Risk Forecasting written by Jon Danielsson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-04-20 with total page 307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Risk Forecasting is a complete introduction to practical quantitative risk management, with a focus on market risk. Derived from the authors teaching notes and years spent training practitioners in risk management techniques, it brings together the three key disciplines of finance, statistics and modeling (programming), to provide a thorough grounding in risk management techniques. Written by renowned risk expert Jon Danielsson, the book begins with an introduction to financial markets and market prices, volatility clusters, fat tails and nonlinear dependence. It then goes on to present volatility forecasting with both univatiate and multivatiate methods, discussing the various methods used by industry, with a special focus on the GARCH family of models. The evaluation of the quality of forecasts is discussed in detail. Next, the main concepts in risk and models to forecast risk are discussed, especially volatility, value-at-risk and expected shortfall. The focus is both on risk in basic assets such as stocks and foreign exchange, but also calculations of risk in bonds and options, with analytical methods such as delta-normal VaR and duration-normal VaR and Monte Carlo simulation. The book then moves on to the evaluation of risk models with methods like backtesting, followed by a discussion on stress testing. The book concludes by focussing on the forecasting of risk in very large and uncommon events with extreme value theory and considering the underlying assumptions behind almost every risk model in practical use – that risk is exogenous – and what happens when those assumptions are violated. Every method presented brings together theoretical discussion and derivation of key equations and a discussion of issues in practical implementation. Each method is implemented in both MATLAB and R, two of the most commonly used mathematical programming languages for risk forecasting with which the reader can implement the models illustrated in the book. The book includes four appendices. The first introduces basic concepts in statistics and financial time series referred to throughout the book. The second and third introduce R and MATLAB, providing a discussion of the basic implementation of the software packages. And the final looks at the concept of maximum likelihood, especially issues in implementation and testing. The book is accompanied by a website - www.financialriskforecasting.com – which features downloadable code as used in the book.
Download or read book Market Liquidity written by Yakov Amihud and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013 with total page 293 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores the effect of liquidity on asset prices, liquidity variations over time and how liquidity risk affects prices.
Book Synopsis Measuring Market Risk by : Kevin Dowd
Download or read book Measuring Market Risk written by Kevin Dowd and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2003-02-28 with total page 395 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The most up-to-date resource on market risk methodologies Financial professionals in both the front and back office require an understanding of market risk and how to manage it. Measuring Market Risk provides this understanding with an overview of the most recent innovations in Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Tail Loss (ETL) estimation. This book is filled with clear and accessible explanations of complex issues that arise in risk measuring-from parametric versus nonparametric estimation to incre-mental and component risks. Measuring Market Risk also includes accompanying software written in Matlab—allowing the reader to simulate and run the examples in the book.
