The Hidden Traps In Decision Making

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Negotiation Analysis

Author : Howard Raiffa
Publisher : Harvard University Press
ISBN 13 : 0674255690
Total Pages : 567 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (742 download)

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Book Synopsis Negotiation Analysis by : Howard Raiffa

Download or read book Negotiation Analysis written by Howard Raiffa and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2007-03-31 with total page 567 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This masterly book substantially extends Howard Raiffa's earlier classic, The Art and Science of Negotiation. It does so by incorporating three additional supporting strands of inquiry: individual decision analysis, judgmental decision making, and game theory. Each strand is introduced and used in analyzing negotiations. The book starts by considering how analytically minded parties can generate joint gains and distribute them equitably by negotiating with full, open, truthful exchanges. The book then examines models that disengage step by step from that ideal. It also shows how a neutral outsider (intervenor) can help all negotiators by providing joint, neutral analysis of their problem. Although analytical in its approach--building from simple hypothetical examples--the book can be understood by those with only a high school background in mathematics. It therefore will have a broad relevance for both the theory and practice of negotiation analysis as it is applied to disputes that range from those between family members, business partners, and business competitors to those involving labor and management, environmentalists and developers, and nations.

The Secret Life of Decisions

Author : Meena Thuraisingham
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1351882139
Total Pages : 188 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis The Secret Life of Decisions by : Meena Thuraisingham

Download or read book The Secret Life of Decisions written by Meena Thuraisingham and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-03-02 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Making decisions is a critical part of every executive’s job. However we know so little about the often subliminal processes that shape the decisions we make. The Secret Life of Decisions exposes the unchallenged myths and distortions that impact our reasoning ability, raising our awareness of the many traps we can fall into. Meena Thuraisingham and her collaborator, Wolfgang Lehmacher, have drawn from decades of work with leaders showing that even the most talented leaders and teams can end up making sub-optimal decisions. This is rarely because they had poor critical thinking faculties but rather because they did not pay enough attention to the often invisible traps hardwired into our thinking processes, letting through only information that conforms with our current beliefs, mental models and expectations. This leaves many leaders and businesses exposed. Rather than being the rational output of our reasoning abilities, the authors show decision making to be a highly imprecise process. As decision makers we come to the table armed with our own perspectives, preferences, filters, heuristics and biases, influenced by a broad range of social influences many operating subliminally. The Secret Life of Decisions is an essential read for developing and seasoned executives who have to work through increasingly complex and high stakes decisions. It treats choosing wisely and the thinking involved as a skill, which as with many other skills, can be improved with the guided practice and supporting tools provided here. The journey however starts with awareness that comes from outing the ’secret’ forces that can sabotage the quality of our decisions.

How We Decide

Author : Jonah Lehrer
Publisher : Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
ISBN 13 : 0547347480
Total Pages : 357 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (473 download)

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Book Synopsis How We Decide by : Jonah Lehrer

Download or read book How We Decide written by Jonah Lehrer and published by Houghton Mifflin Harcourt. This book was released on 2010-01-14 with total page 357 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first book to use the unexpected discoveries of neuroscience to help us make the best decisions Since Plato, philosophers have described the decision-making process as either rational or emotional: we carefully deliberate, or we “blink” and go with our gut. But as scientists break open the mind’s black box with the latest tools of neuroscience, they’re discovering that this is not how the mind works. Our best decisions are a finely tuned blend of both feeling and reason—and the precise mix depends on the situation. When buying a house, for example, it’s best to let our unconscious mull over the many variables. But when we’re picking a stock, intuition often leads us astray. The trick is to determine when to use the different parts of the brain, and to do this, we need to think harder (and smarter) about how we think. Jonah Lehrer arms us with the tools we need, drawing on cutting-edge research as well as the real-world experiences of a wide range of “deciders”—from airplane pilots and hedge fund investors to serial killers and poker players. Lehrer shows how people are taking advantage of the new science to make better television shows, win more football games, and improve military intelligence. His goal is to answer two questions that are of interest to just about anyone, from CEOs to firefighters: How does the human mind make decisions? And how can we make those decisions better?

Harvard Business Review on Decision Making

Author : Peter F. Drucker
Publisher : Harvard Business Press
ISBN 13 : 9781578515578
Total Pages : 200 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (155 download)

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Book Synopsis Harvard Business Review on Decision Making by : Peter F. Drucker

Download or read book Harvard Business Review on Decision Making written by Peter F. Drucker and published by Harvard Business Press. This book was released on 2001 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This collection of articles guides readers at all levels to understand the fundamental theories and practices of effective decision making in their professional and personal lives.

Thinking in Bets

Author : Annie Duke
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 0735216371
Total Pages : 289 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (352 download)

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Book Synopsis Thinking in Bets by : Annie Duke

Download or read book Thinking in Bets written by Annie Duke and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2019-05-07 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Wall Street Journal bestseller, now in paperback. Poker champion turned decision strategist Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions. Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there's always information hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes, and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate, and successful in the long run.

Judgment Misguided

Author : Jonathan Baron
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN 13 : 0195111087
Total Pages : 238 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (951 download)

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Book Synopsis Judgment Misguided by : Jonathan Baron

Download or read book Judgment Misguided written by Jonathan Baron and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 1998 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: People often follow intuitive principles of decision making, ranging from group loyalty to the belief that nature is benign. But instead of using these principles as rules of thumb, we often treat them as absolutes and ignore the consequences of following them blindly. In Judgment Misguided, Jonathan Baron explores our well-meant and deeply felt personal intuitions about what is right and wrong, and how they affect the public domain. Baron argues that when these intuitions are valued in their own right, rather than as a means to another end, they often prevent us from achieving the results we want. Focusing on cases where our intuitive principles take over public decision making, the book examines some of our most common intuitions and the ways they can be misused. According to Baron, we can avoid these problems by paying more attention to the effects of our decisions. Written in a accessible style, the book is filled with compelling case studies, such as abortion, nuclear power, immigration, and the decline of the Atlantic fishery, among others, which illustrate a range of intuitions and how they impede the public's best interests. Judgment Misguided will be important reading for those involved in public decision making, and researchers and students in psychology and the social sciences, as well as everyone looking for insight into the decisions that affect us all.

Innovation, Product Development and Commercialization

Author : Dariush Rafinejad
Publisher : J. Ross Publishing
ISBN 13 : 9781932159707
Total Pages : 440 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (597 download)

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Book Synopsis Innovation, Product Development and Commercialization by : Dariush Rafinejad

Download or read book Innovation, Product Development and Commercialization written by Dariush Rafinejad and published by J. Ross Publishing. This book was released on 2007-06-15 with total page 440 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This title uses a holistic approach to examine the diverse issues that managers face to channel resources in the right direction for commercial success. It details the commercialization of innovation and new products in fast-paced, high-tech markets and how to match tecnological advances to new market opportunities.

Trap Tales

Author : David M. R. Covey
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119365910
Total Pages : 204 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (193 download)

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Book Synopsis Trap Tales by : David M. R. Covey

Download or read book Trap Tales written by David M. R. Covey and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2017-04-11 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Outsmart the traps that are holding you back from success! Trap Tales is your guide to avoiding the seven obstacles that ensnare people every day. We all fall into traps, and we often don’t even realize it until we’re deeply entrenched. Like quicksand, traps are easy to step into, but difficult to escape—it seems that the harder we try to climb out, the deeper we sink. But what if there were another way? What if we knew the right strategies to escape the traps we have fallen into? What if we could spot traps from a distance, and avoid them entirely? In this book, authors David M. R. Covey and Stephan M. Mardyks train you in the art of Trapology. You’ll meet Alex and Victoria, who have fallen into traps you’re sure to recognize. As you read their stories, you’ll learn about the seven most common traps in life and work, and how even the smartest and seemingly most accomplished people find themselves stuck and unable to see their way out. Traps are masters of disguise, but there are telltale signs that give them away every time. If you discover that you’re trapped right now, consider this book your lifeline—the lessons contained in Trap Tales will teach you how to escape these traps and how to sidestep them in the future. This book, unlike most books, offers counter-intuitive strategies and unconventional wisdom to: • Learn the seven biggest traps in life and work that catch people unaware • Identify the traps that are holding you back right now • Discover your escape route and climb out of the quicksand • Become a “Trapologist” and avoid traps altogether The core message of Trap Tales is hope—the belief that anybody can change the trajectory of their life, at any stage of their life. Stop letting traps steal your time, money, energy, and happiness—Trap Tales provides survival training of a different sort, allowing you to write your own tale of success.

Decisive

Author : Chip Heath
Publisher : Random House Canada
ISBN 13 : 0307361144
Total Pages : 326 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (73 download)

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Book Synopsis Decisive by : Chip Heath

Download or read book Decisive written by Chip Heath and published by Random House Canada. This book was released on 2013-03-26 with total page 326 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The four principles that can help us to overcome our brains' natural biases to make better, more informed decisions--in our lives, careers, families and organizations. In Decisive, Chip Heath and Dan Heath, the bestselling authors of Made to Stick and Switch, tackle the thorny problem of how to overcome our natural biases and irrational thinking to make better decisions, about our work, lives, companies and careers. When it comes to decision making, our brains are flawed instruments. But given that we are biologically hard-wired to act foolishly and behave irrationally at times, how can we do better? A number of recent bestsellers have identified how irrational our decision making can be. But being aware of a bias doesn't correct it, just as knowing that you are nearsighted doesn't help you to see better. In Decisive, the Heath brothers, drawing on extensive studies, stories and research, offer specific, practical tools that can help us to think more clearly about our options, and get out of our heads, to improve our decision making, at work and at home.

Think Again

Author : Sydney Finkelstein
Publisher : Harvard Business Press
ISBN 13 : 1422133370
Total Pages : 257 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (221 download)

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Book Synopsis Think Again by : Sydney Finkelstein

Download or read book Think Again written by Sydney Finkelstein and published by Harvard Business Press. This book was released on 2009-02-03 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why do smart and experienced leaders make flawed, even catastrophic, decisions? Why do people keep believing they have made the right choice, even with the disastrous result staring them in the face? And how can you be sure you're making the right decision--without the benefit of hindsight? Sydney Finkelstein, Jo Whitehead, and Andrew Campbell show how the usually beneficial processes of the human mind can become traps when we face big decisions. The authors show how the shortcuts our brains have learned to take over millennia of evolution can derail our decision making. Think Again offers a powerful model for making better decisions, describing the key red flags to watch for and detailing the decision-making safeguards we need. Using examples from business, politics, and history, Think Again deconstructs bad decisions, as they unfolded in real time, to show how you can avoid the same fate.

The Mathematics of Preference, Choice and Order

Author : Steven Brams
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3540791280
Total Pages : 412 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (47 download)

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Book Synopsis The Mathematics of Preference, Choice and Order by : Steven Brams

Download or read book The Mathematics of Preference, Choice and Order written by Steven Brams and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-02-11 with total page 412 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Peter Fishburn has had a splendidly productive career that led to path-breaking c- tributions in a remarkable variety of areas of research. His contributions have been published in a vast literature, ranging through journals of social choice and welfare, decision theory, operations research, economic theory, political science, mathema- cal psychology, and discrete mathematics. This work was done both on an individual basis and with a very long list of coauthors. The contributions that Fishburn made can roughly be divided into three major topical areas, and contributions to each of these areas are identi?ed by sections of this monograph. Section 1 deals with topics that are included in the general areas of utility, preference, individual choice, subjective probability, and measurement t- ory. Section 2 covers social choice theory, voting models, and social welfare. S- tion 3 deals with more purely mathematical topics that are related to combinatorics, graph theory, and ordered sets. The common theme of Fishburn’s contributions to all of these areas is his ability to bring rigorous mathematical analysis to bear on a wide range of dif?cult problems.

Smart Choices

Author : John S. Hammond
Publisher : Harvard Business School Press
ISBN 13 : 9781633691049
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Smart Choices by : John S. Hammond

Download or read book Smart Choices written by John S. Hammond and published by Harvard Business School Press. This book was released on 2015-08 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Where should I live? Is it time to get a new job? Which job candidate should I hire? What business strategy should I pursue? We spend the majority of our lives making decisions, both big and small. Yet, even though our success is largely determined by the choices that we make, very few of us are equipped with useful decision-making skills. Because of this, we often approach our choices tentatively, or even fearfully, and avoid giving them the time and thought required to put our best foot forward. In Smart Choices, John Hammond, Ralph Keeney, and Howard Raiffa--experts with over 100 years of experience resolving complex decision problems--offer a proven, straightforward, and flexible roadmap for making better and more impactful decisions, and offer the tools to achieve your goals in every aspect of your life. Their step-by-step, divide-and conquer approach will teach you how to: * Evaluate your plans * Break your potential decision into its key elements * Identify the key drivers that are most relevant to your goals * Apply systematic thinking * Use the right information to make the smartest choice Smart Choices doesn’t tell you what to decide; it tells you how. As you routinely use the process, you’ll become more confident in your ability to make decisions at work and at home. And, more importantly, by applying its time-tested methods, you’ll make better decisions going forward. Be proactive. Don’t wait until a decision is forced on you--or made for you. Seek out decisions that advance your long-term goals, values, and beliefs. Take charge of your life by making Smart Choices a lifetime habit.

Why Decisions Fail

Author : Paul Nutt
Publisher : Berrett-Koehler Publishers
ISBN 13 : 1605091499
Total Pages : 353 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (5 download)

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Book Synopsis Why Decisions Fail by : Paul Nutt

Download or read book Why Decisions Fail written by Paul Nutt and published by Berrett-Koehler Publishers. This book was released on 2002-07-10 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based on the his analysis of 400 strategic decisions made by top managers in areas such as products and services, pricing and markets, personnel policy, technology acquisition, and strategic reorganization, Nutt estimates that two-thirds of all decisions are based on failure-prone or questionable tactics. He uses the fifteen monumental decision-making disasters to illustrate the potential consequences of these common tactical errors and traps and then details successful alternative decision-making approaches. Why Decisions Fail translates decades of award-winning research into practical terms that managers can use to improve their own decision-making practices.

Business Chemistry

Author : Kim Christfort
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119501563
Total Pages : 311 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (195 download)

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Book Synopsis Business Chemistry by : Kim Christfort

Download or read book Business Chemistry written by Kim Christfort and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2018-05-22 with total page 311 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A guide to putting cognitive diversity to work Ever wonder what it is that makes two people click or clash? Or why some groups excel while others fumble? Or how you, as a leader, can make or break team potential? Business Chemistry holds the answers. Based on extensive research and analytics, plus years of proven success in the field, the Business Chemistry framework provides a simple yet powerful way to identify meaningful differences between people’s working styles. Who seeks possibilities and who seeks stability? Who values challenge and who values connection? Business Chemistry will help you grasp where others are coming from, appreciate the value they bring, and determine what they need in order to excel. It offers practical ways to be more effective as an individual and as a leader. Imagine you had a more in-depth understanding of yourself and why you thrive in some work environments and flounder in others. Suppose you had a clearer view on what to do about it so that you could always perform at your best. Imagine you had more insight into what makes people tick and what ticks them off, how some interactions unlock potential while others shut people down. Suppose you could gain people’s trust, influence them, motivate them, and get the very most out of your work relationships. Imagine you knew how to create a work environment where all types of people excel, even if they have conflicting perspectives, preferences and needs. Suppose you could activate the potential benefits of diversity on your teams and in your organizations, improving collaboration to achieve the group’s collective potential. Business Chemistry offers all of this--you don’t have to leave it up to chance, and you shouldn’t. Let this book guide you in creating great chemistry!

HBR's 10 Must Reads on Making Smart Decisions (with featured article "Before You Make That Big Decision..." by Daniel Kahneman, Dan Lovallo, and Olivier Sibony)

Download HBR's 10 Must Reads on Making Smart Decisions (with featured article

Author : Harvard Business Review
Publisher : Harvard Business Press
ISBN 13 : 1422191435
Total Pages : 194 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (221 download)

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Book Synopsis HBR's 10 Must Reads on Making Smart Decisions (with featured article "Before You Make That Big Decision..." by Daniel Kahneman, Dan Lovallo, and Olivier Sibony) by : Harvard Business Review

Download or read book HBR's 10 Must Reads on Making Smart Decisions (with featured article "Before You Make That Big Decision..." by Daniel Kahneman, Dan Lovallo, and Olivier Sibony) written by Harvard Business Review and published by Harvard Business Press. This book was released on 2013-03-05 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Learn why bad decisions happen to good managers—and how to make better ones. If you read nothing else on decision making, read these 10 articles. We’ve combed through hundreds of articles in the Harvard Business Review archive and selected the most important ones to help you and your organization make better choices and avoid common traps. Leading experts such as Ram Charan, Michael Mankins, and Thomas Davenport provide the insights and advice you need to: Make bold decisions that challenge the status quo Support your decisions with diverse data Evaluate risks and benefits with equal rigor Check for faulty cause-and-effect reasoning Test your decisions with experiments Foster and address constructive criticism Defeat indecisiveness with clear accountability

Predictably Irrational

Author : Dan Ariely
Publisher : Harper Collins
ISBN 13 : 006135323X
Total Pages : 310 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (613 download)

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Book Synopsis Predictably Irrational by : Dan Ariely

Download or read book Predictably Irrational written by Dan Ariely and published by Harper Collins. This book was released on 2008-02 with total page 310 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Intelligent, lively, humorous, and thoroughly engaging, "The Predictably Irrational" explains why people often make bad decisions and what can be done about it.

Worthless, Impossible and Stupid

Author : Daniel
Publisher : Harvard Business Press
ISBN 13 : 1422186997
Total Pages : 301 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (221 download)

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Book Synopsis Worthless, Impossible and Stupid by : Daniel

Download or read book Worthless, Impossible and Stupid written by Daniel and published by Harvard Business Press. This book was released on 2013-06-18 with total page 301 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introducing the global mind-set changing the way we do business. In this fascinating book, global entrepreneurship expert Daniel Isenberg presents a completely novel way to approach business building—with the insights and lessons learned from a worldwide cast of entrepreneurial characters. Not bound by a western, Silicon Valley stereotype, this group of courageous and energetic doers has created a global and diverse mix of companies destined to become tomorrow’s leading organizations. Worthless, Impossible, and Stupid is about how enterprising individuals from around the world see hidden value in situations where others do not, use that perception to develop products and services that people initially don’t think they want, and ultimately go on to realize extraordinary value for themselves, their customers, and society as a whole. What these business builders have in common is a contrarian mind-set that allows them to create opportunities and succeed where others see nothing. Amazingly, this process repeats itself in one form or another countless times a day all over the world. From Albuquerque to Islamabad, you will travel with Isenberg to discover unusual yet practical insights that you can use in your own business. Meet the founders of Grameenphone in Bangladesh, PACIV in Puerto Rico, Sea to Table in New York, Actavis in Iceland, Studio Moderna in Slovenia, Hartwell Metals in Hong Kong and Southeast Asia, Given Imaging in Israel, WildChina in China, and many others. You’ll be moved by the stories of these plucky start-ups—many of them fueled by adversity and, more often than not, by necessity. Great stories, stunning successes, crushing failures—they’re all here. What can we, in the East and West, learn from them? What can you learn—and what will these entrepreneurial stories, so compellingly told, inspire you to do? Let this book open doors for you where you once saw only walls. If you’ve ever felt the urge to turn a glimmer of an idea into something extraordinary, these stories are for you.