The Gamblers Paradox

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Paradoxes of Gambling Behaviour

Author : Willem A. Wagenaar
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1134879369
Total Pages : 133 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (348 download)

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Book Synopsis Paradoxes of Gambling Behaviour by : Willem A. Wagenaar

Download or read book Paradoxes of Gambling Behaviour written by Willem A. Wagenaar and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-10-14 with total page 133 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why does a large proportion of the population engage in some form of gambling, although they know they are most likely to lose, and that the gambling industry makes huge profits? Do gamblers simply accept their losses as fate, or do they believe that they will be able to overcome the negative odds in some miraculous way? The paradox is complicated by the fact that those habitual gamblers who are most aware that systematic losses cannot be avoided, are the least likely to stop gambling. Detailed analyses of actual gambling behaviour have shown gamblers to be victims of a variety of cognitive illusions, which lead them to believe that the general statistical rules of determining the probability of loss do not apply to them as individuals. The designers of gambling games cleverly exploit these illusions in order to promote a false perception of the situation. Much of the earlier interest in gambling behaviour has been centred on the traditional theories of human decision-making, where decisions are portrayed as choices among bets. This led to a tradition of studying decision-making in experiments on betting. In this title, originally published in 1988, the author argues that betting behaviour should not be used as a typical example of human decision-making upon which a general psychological theory could be founded, and that these traditional views can in no way account for the gambling behaviour reported in this book.

What's Luck Got to Do with It?

Author : Joseph Mazur
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400834457
Total Pages : 297 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis What's Luck Got to Do with It? by : Joseph Mazur

Download or read book What's Luck Got to Do with It? written by Joseph Mazur and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2010-05-17 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The hazards of feeling lucky in gambling Why do so many gamblers risk it all when they know the odds of winning are against them? Why do they believe dice are "hot" in a winning streak? Why do we expect heads on a coin toss after several flips have turned up tails? What's Luck Got to Do with It? takes a lively and eye-opening look at the mathematics, history, and psychology of gambling to reveal the most widely held misconceptions about luck. It exposes the hazards of feeling lucky, and uses the mathematics of predictable outcomes to show when our chances of winning are actually good. Mathematician Joseph Mazur traces the history of gambling from the earliest known archaeological evidence of dice playing among Neolithic peoples to the first systematic mathematical studies of games of chance during the Renaissance, from government-administered lotteries to the glittering seductions of grand casinos, and on to the global economic crisis brought on by financiers' trillion-dollar bets. Using plenty of engaging anecdotes, Mazur explains the mathematics behind gambling—including the laws of probability, statistics, betting against expectations, and the law of large numbers—and describes the psychological and emotional factors that entice people to put their faith in winning that ever-elusive jackpot despite its mathematical improbability. As entertaining as it is informative, What's Luck Got to Do with It? demonstrates the pervasive nature of our belief in luck and the deceptive psychology of winning and losing. Some images inside the book are unavailable due to digital copyright restrictions.

Statistics Hacks

Author : Bruce Frey
Publisher : "O'Reilly Media, Inc."
ISBN 13 : 0596553994
Total Pages : 360 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (965 download)

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Book Synopsis Statistics Hacks by : Bruce Frey

Download or read book Statistics Hacks written by Bruce Frey and published by "O'Reilly Media, Inc.". This book was released on 2006-05-09 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Want to calculate the probability that an event will happen? Be able to spot fake data? Prove beyond doubt whether one thing causes another? Or learn to be a better gambler? You can do that and much more with 75 practical and fun hacks packed into Statistics Hacks. These cool tips, tricks, and mind-boggling solutions from the world of statistics, measurement, and research methods will not only amaze and entertain you, but will give you an advantage in several real-world situations-including business. This book is ideal for anyone who likes puzzles, brainteasers, games, gambling, magic tricks, and those who want to apply math and science to everyday circumstances. Several hacks in the first chapter alone-such as the "central limit theorem,", which allows you to know everything by knowing just a little-serve as sound approaches for marketing and other business objectives. Using the tools of inferential statistics, you can understand the way probability works, discover relationships, predict events with uncanny accuracy, and even make a little money with a well-placed wager here and there. Statistics Hacks presents useful techniques from statistics, educational and psychological measurement, and experimental research to help you solve a variety of problems in business, games, and life. You'll learn how to: Play smart when you play Texas Hold 'Em, blackjack, roulette, dice games, or even the lottery Design your own winnable bar bets to make money and amaze your friends Predict the outcomes of baseball games, know when to "go for two" in football, and anticipate the winners of other sporting events with surprising accuracy Demystify amazing coincidences and distinguish the truly random from the only seemingly random--even keep your iPod's "random" shuffle honest Spot fraudulent data, detect plagiarism, and break codes How to isolate the effects of observation on the thing observed Whether you're a statistics enthusiast who does calculations in your sleep or a civilian who is entertained by clever solutions to interesting problems, Statistics Hacks has tools to give you an edge over the world's slim odds.

The Gambler, Bobok, A Nasty Story

Author : Fyodor Dostoyevsky
Publisher : Penguin UK
ISBN 13 : 0141907959
Total Pages : 312 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (419 download)

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Book Synopsis The Gambler, Bobok, A Nasty Story by : Fyodor Dostoyevsky

Download or read book The Gambler, Bobok, A Nasty Story written by Fyodor Dostoyevsky and published by Penguin UK. This book was released on 1973-09-27 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The stories in this volume demonstrate Dostoyevsky's genius for fusing caricature, irony and the grotesque to create a powerful dark humour. The Gambler is a breathtaking portrayal of an intense and futile obsession. Based on Dostoyevsky's own experience of financial desperation and the compulsive desire to win money, it focuses on the characters that take their places at the gaming tables of 'Roulettenburg': the outspoken, aristocratic 'Grandmamma', the mercenary Mademoiselle Blanche, the cool, mysterious Polina and Alex, the author's self-portrait; a man gripped by exhilaration and hopelessness. Bobok is a blackly comic satire in which a desolate writer becomes drawn into the conversations of the dead, and A Nasty Story is a humorous look at the disparity between a man's exaggerated ideal of himself and the sad reality.

The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic

Author : Richard A. Epstein
Publisher : Gulf Professional Publishing
ISBN 13 : 9780122407611
Total Pages : 476 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (76 download)

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Book Synopsis The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic by : Richard A. Epstein

Download or read book The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic written by Richard A. Epstein and published by Gulf Professional Publishing. This book was released on 1995 with total page 476 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Covering all aspects of gambling, The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic is mathematically sophisticated, but can be read for what it says about the games and strategies, skipping the technicalities. The material is fascinating and detailed, and the analysis is masterful.

Paradoxes of Gambling Behaviour

Author : Willem A. Wagenaar
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1134879296
Total Pages : 136 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (348 download)

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Book Synopsis Paradoxes of Gambling Behaviour by : Willem A. Wagenaar

Download or read book Paradoxes of Gambling Behaviour written by Willem A. Wagenaar and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-10-14 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why does a large proportion of the population engage in some form of gambling, although they know they are most likely to lose, and that the gambling industry makes huge profits? Do gamblers simply accept their losses as fate, or do they believe that they will be able to overcome the negative odds in some miraculous way? The paradox is complicated by the fact that those habitual gamblers who are most aware that systematic losses cannot be avoided, are the least likely to stop gambling. Detailed analyses of actual gambling behaviour have shown gamblers to be victims of a variety of cognitive illusions, which lead them to believe that the general statistical rules of determining the probability of loss do not apply to them as individuals. The designers of gambling games cleverly exploit these illusions in order to promote a false perception of the situation. Much of the earlier interest in gambling behaviour has been centred on the traditional theories of human decision-making, where decisions are portrayed as choices among bets. This led to a tradition of studying decision-making in experiments on betting. In this title, originally published in 1988, the author argues that betting behaviour should not be used as a typical example of human decision-making upon which a general psychological theory could be founded, and that these traditional views can in no way account for the gambling behaviour reported in this book.

Chance

Author : Amir D. Aczel
Publisher : High Stakes
ISBN 13 : 9781843440253
Total Pages : 192 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (42 download)

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Book Synopsis Chance by : Amir D. Aczel

Download or read book Chance written by Amir D. Aczel and published by High Stakes. This book was released on 2006-05-18 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Celebrated mathematician Amir D Aczel sets his sights on the probability theory - the branch of mathematics that measures the likelihood of a random event. What is commonly called 'luck' has mathematical roots - and in Aczel's capable hands readers learn to increase their odds of success in everything from true love to the stock market.

Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty

Author : George G. Szpiro
Publisher : Columbia University Press
ISBN 13 : 0231550979
Total Pages : 413 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (315 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty by : George G. Szpiro

Download or read book Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty written by George G. Szpiro and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2020-01-07 with total page 413 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: At its core, economics is about making decisions. In the history of economic thought, great intellectual prowess has been exerted toward devising exquisite theories of optimal decision making in situations of constraint, risk, and scarcity. Yet not all of our choices are purely logical, and so there is a longstanding tension between those emphasizing the rational and irrational sides of human behavior. One strand develops formal models of rational utility maximizing while the other draws on what behavioral science has shown about our tendency to act irrationally. In Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty, George G. Szpiro offers a new narrative of the three-century history of the study of decision making, tracing how crucial ideas have evolved and telling the stories of the thinkers who shaped the field. Szpiro examines economics from the early days of theories spun from anecdotal evidence to the rise of a discipline built around elegant mathematics through the past half century’s interest in describing how people actually behave. Considering the work of Locke, Bentham, Jevons, Walras, Friedman, Tversky and Kahneman, Thaler, and a range of other thinkers, he sheds light on the vast scope of discovery since Bernoulli first proposed a solution to the St. Petersburg Paradox. Presenting fundamental mathematical theories in easy-to-understand language, Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty is a revelatory history for readers seeking to grasp the grand sweep of economic thought.

Against the Gods

Author : Peter L. Bernstein
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470534532
Total Pages : 400 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (75 download)

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Book Synopsis Against the Gods by : Peter L. Bernstein

Download or read book Against the Gods written by Peter L. Bernstein and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-09-11 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Business Week, New York Times Business, and USA Today Bestseller "Ambitious and readable . . . an engaging introduction to the oddsmakers, whom Bernstein regards as true humanists helping to release mankind from the choke holds of superstition and fatalism." —The New York Times "An extraordinarily entertaining and informative book." —The Wall Street Journal "A lively panoramic book . . . Against the Gods sets up an ambitious premise and then delivers on it." —Business Week "Deserves to be, and surely will be, widely read." —The Economist "[A] challenging book, one that may change forever the way people think about the world." —Worth "No one else could have written a book of such central importance with so much charm and excitement." —Robert Heilbroner author, The Worldly Philosophers "With his wonderful knowledge of the history and current manifestations of risk, Peter Bernstein brings us Against the Gods. Nothing like it will come out of the financial world this year or ever. I speak carefully: no one should miss it." —John Kenneth Galbraith Professor of Economics Emeritus, Harvard University In this unique exploration of the role of risk in our society, Peter Bernstein argues that the notion of bringing risk under control is one of the central ideas that distinguishes modern times from the distant past. Against the Gods chronicles the remarkable intellectual adventure that liberated humanity from oracles and soothsayers by means of the powerful tools of risk management that are available to us today. "An extremely readable history of risk." —Barron's "Fascinating . . . this challenging volume will help you understand the uncertainties that every investor must face." —Money "A singular achievement." —Times Literary Supplement "There's a growing market for savants who can render the recondite intelligibly-witness Stephen Jay Gould (natural history), Oliver Sacks (disease), Richard Dawkins (heredity), James Gleick (physics), Paul Krugman (economics)-and Bernstein would mingle well in their company." —The Australian

Probably Not

Author : Lawrence N. Dworsky
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470282045
Total Pages : 328 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (72 download)

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Book Synopsis Probably Not by : Lawrence N. Dworsky

Download or read book Probably Not written by Lawrence N. Dworsky and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-05-23 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances. Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as: How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights Why different gambling casino strategies ultimately offer players no advantage How to estimate how many different birds of one species are seen on a walk through the woods Seemingly random events—coin flip games, the Central Limit Theorem, binomial distributions and Poisson distributions, Parrando's Paradox, and Benford's Law—are addressed and treated through key concepts and methods in probability. In addition, fun-to-solve problems including "the shared birthday" and "the prize behind door number one, two, or three" are found throughout the book, which allow readers to test and practice their new probability skills. Requiring little background knowledge of mathematics, readers will gain a greater understanding of the many daily activities and events that involve random processes and statistics. Combining the mathematics of probability with real-world examples, Probably Not is an ideal reference for practitioners and students who would like to learn more about the role of probability and statistics in everyday decision making.

The Unfinished Game

Author : Keith Devlin
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 0465018963
Total Pages : 210 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (65 download)

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Book Synopsis The Unfinished Game by : Keith Devlin

Download or read book The Unfinished Game written by Keith Devlin and published by . This book was released on 2010-03-23 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Before the mid-seventeenth century, scholars generally agreed that it was impossible to predict something by calculating mathematical outcomes. One simply could not put a numerical value on the likelihood that a particular event would occur. Even the outcome of something as simple as a dice roll or the likelihood of showers instead of sunshine was thought to lie in the realm of pure, unknowable chance. The issue remained intractable until Blaise Pascal wrote to Pierre de Fermat in 1654, outlining a solution to the "unfinished game" problem: how do you divide the pot when players are forced to.

Essentials of Stochastic Processes

Author : Richard Durrett
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319456148
Total Pages : 282 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (194 download)

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Book Synopsis Essentials of Stochastic Processes by : Richard Durrett

Download or read book Essentials of Stochastic Processes written by Richard Durrett and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-11-07 with total page 282 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Building upon the previous editions, this textbook is a first course in stochastic processes taken by undergraduate and graduate students (MS and PhD students from math, statistics, economics, computer science, engineering, and finance departments) who have had a course in probability theory. It covers Markov chains in discrete and continuous time, Poisson processes, renewal processes, martingales, and option pricing. One can only learn a subject by seeing it in action, so there are a large number of examples and more than 300 carefully chosen exercises to deepen the reader’s understanding. Drawing from teaching experience and student feedback, there are many new examples and problems with solutions that use TI-83 to eliminate the tedious details of solving linear equations by hand, and the collection of exercises is much improved, with many more biological examples. Originally included in previous editions, material too advanced for this first course in stochastic processes has been eliminated while treatment of other topics useful for applications has been expanded. In addition, the ordering of topics has been improved; for example, the difficult subject of martingales is delayed until its usefulness can be applied in the treatment of mathematical finance.

How to Gamble If You Must

Author : Lester E. Dubins
Publisher : Courier Corporation
ISBN 13 : 0486780643
Total Pages : 307 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (867 download)

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Book Synopsis How to Gamble If You Must by : Lester E. Dubins

Download or read book How to Gamble If You Must written by Lester E. Dubins and published by Courier Corporation. This book was released on 2014-08-20 with total page 307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This classic of advanced statistics is geared toward graduate-level readers and uses the concepts of gambling to develop important ideas in probability theory. The authors have distilled the essence of many years' research into a dozen concise chapters. "Strongly recommended" by the Journal of the American Statistical Association upon its initial publication, this revised and updated edition features contributions from two well-known statisticians that include a new Preface, updated references, and findings from recent research. Following an introductory chapter, the book formulates the gambler's problem and discusses gambling strategies. Succeeding chapters explore the properties associated with casinos and certain measures of subfairness. Concluding chapters relate the scope of the gambler's problems to more general mathematical ideas, including dynamic programming, Bayesian statistics, and stochastic processes. Dover (2014) revised and updated republication of the 1976 Dover edition entitled Inequalities for Stochastic Processes. See every Dover book in print at www.doverpublications.com

Why Did the Policeman Cross the Road?

Author : Stevyn Colgan
Publisher : Unbound Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1783522348
Total Pages : 298 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (835 download)

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Book Synopsis Why Did the Policeman Cross the Road? by : Stevyn Colgan

Download or read book Why Did the Policeman Cross the Road? written by Stevyn Colgan and published by Unbound Publishing. This book was released on 2016-05-19 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Can lollipops reduce antisocial behaviour? Could wizards prevent street gambling? Do fake bus stops protect pensioners? Can dog shows help reduce murder rates? Stevyn Colgan spent thirty years in the police service—twelve of them as part of the Problem Solving Unit, a special team with an extraordinary brief: to solve problems of crime and disorder that were unresponsive to traditional policing. They could try anything as long as it wasn’t illegal (or immoral), wouldn’t bring the police into disrepute, and didn’t cost very much. The result is this extraordinary collection of innovative and imaginative approaches to crime prevention, showing us that any problem can be solved if we can just identify its underlying roots. In Why Did the Policeman Cross the Road? you’ll learn how bees can prevent elephant stampedes and what tiger farms and sex workers have in common. You’ll read about killer snakes in African cornfields and cholera epidemics in Soho. You’ll come to appreciate the advantages of sticking gum on celebrities’ faces, why the colour of the changing room might decide a football match, and how eating lobsters may help to save their lives. This book is an amusing, insightful and sometimes controversial celebration of good policing and problem solving that reaches beyond law enforcement and into everyday life.

Colossal Book of Mathematics

Author : Martin Gardner
Publisher : W. W. Norton & Company
ISBN 13 : 9780393020236
Total Pages : 748 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (22 download)

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Book Synopsis Colossal Book of Mathematics by : Martin Gardner

Download or read book Colossal Book of Mathematics written by Martin Gardner and published by W. W. Norton & Company. This book was released on 2001 with total page 748 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: No amateur or math authority can be without this ultimate compendium of classic puzzles, paradoxes, and puzzles from America's best-loved mathematical expert. 320 line drawings.

Probability, Choice, and Reason

Author : Leighton Vaughan Williams
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1000458873
Total Pages : 311 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (4 download)

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Book Synopsis Probability, Choice, and Reason by : Leighton Vaughan Williams

Download or read book Probability, Choice, and Reason written by Leighton Vaughan Williams and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2021-09-15 with total page 311 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Much of our thinking is flawed because it is based on faulty intuition. By using the framework and tools of probability and statistics, we can overcome this to provide solutions to many real-world problems and paradoxes. We show how to do this, and find answers that are frequently very contrary to what we might expect. Along the way, we venture into diverse realms and thought experiments which challenge the way that we see the world. Features: An insightful and engaging discussion of some of the key ideas of probabilistic and statistical thinking Many classic and novel problems, paradoxes, and puzzles An exploration of some of the big questions involving the use of choice and reason in an uncertain world The application of probability, statistics, and Bayesian methods to a wide range of subjects, including economics, finance, law, and medicine Exercises, references, and links for those wishing to cross-reference or to probe further Solutions to exercises at the end of the book This book should serve as an invaluable and fascinating resource for university, college, and high school students who wish to extend their reading, as well as for teachers and lecturers who want to liven up their courses while retaining academic rigour. It will also appeal to anyone who wishes to develop skills with numbers or has an interest in the many statistical and other paradoxes that permeate our lives. Indeed, anyone studying the sciences, social sciences, or humanities on a formal or informal basis will enjoy and benefit from this book.

John Patrick's Blackjack

Author : John Patrick
Publisher : Lyle Stuart
ISBN 13 : 9780818405556
Total Pages : 208 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (55 download)

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Book Synopsis John Patrick's Blackjack by : John Patrick

Download or read book John Patrick's Blackjack written by John Patrick and published by Lyle Stuart. This book was released on 2000-06 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Gives the knowledge, discipline and money management skills to help you become a more consistant winner.