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The External Balance Assessment Methodology
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Book Synopsis 2022 Update of the External Balance Assessment Methodology by : Mr. Cian Allen
Download or read book 2022 Update of the External Balance Assessment Methodology written by Mr. Cian Allen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-03-03 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The assessment of external positions and exchange rates of member countries is a key mandate of the IMF. The External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology has provided the framework for conducting external sector assessments by Fund staff since its introduction in 2012. This paper provides the latest version of the EBA methodology, updated in 2022 with additional refinements to the current account and real exchange rate regression models, as well as updated estimates for other components of the EBA methodology. The paper also includes an assessment of how estimated current account gaps based on EBA are associated with future external adjustment.
Book Synopsis The External Balance Assessment Methodology: 2018 Update by : Mr.Luis M. Cubeddu
Download or read book The External Balance Assessment Methodology: 2018 Update written by Mr.Luis M. Cubeddu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-03-19 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The assessment of external positions and exchange rates is a key mandate of the IMF. This paper presents the updated External Balance Assessment (EBA) framework—a key input in the conduct of multilaterally-consistent external sector assessments of 49 advanced and emerging market economies—following the two rounds of refinements adopted since the framework was introduced in 2012 (as described in Phillips et al., 2013). It also presents new complementary tools for shedding light on the role of structural factors in explaining external imbalances and assessing potential biases in the measurement of external positions. Remaining challenges and areas of future work are also discussed.
Book Synopsis The External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology by : Mr.Steven Phillips
Download or read book The External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology written by Mr.Steven Phillips and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-01-13 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology has been developed by the IMF’s Research Department as a successor to the CGER methodology for assessing current accounts and exchange rates in a multilaterally consistent manner. Compared to other approaches, EBA emphasizes distinguishing between the positive empirical analysis and the normative assessment of current accounts and exchange rates, and highlights the roles of policies and policy distortions. This paper provides a comprehensive description and discussion of the 2013 version (“2.0”) of the EBA methodology, including areas for its further development.
Book Synopsis The Level REER model in the External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology by : Rui Mano
Download or read book The Level REER model in the External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology written by Rui Mano and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-09-13 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper offers an empirical model of the drivers of the level of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) that is now part of the IMF’s methodology for the assessment of external positions, including exchange rates. It constructs a measure of the level of the REER and it offers a panel regression that considers a large number of cross-sectional and time varying factors, guided by the extensive literature. Its main contribution is to enhance our understanding of the cross-sectional determinants of the level of the REER, while taking into account the time-series drivers. The framework accounts for the much larger cross-sectional variation of the level REER, and can better explain the time series variation of level REER when these are based on GDP-deflators rather than on consumer price indices. The latter suggest there may be merits to broadening the assessments to include such measures, although further analysis is required.
Book Synopsis IMF Exchange Rate Policy Advice by : Louellen Stedman
Download or read book IMF Exchange Rate Policy Advice written by Louellen Stedman and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-12-27 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report is the seventh in a series of evaluation updates by the Independent Evaluation Office of the IMF (IEO) that return to past IEO evaluations and assess the continuing relevance of their main conclusions. The report revisits the 2007 evaluation of IMF Exchange Rate Policy Advice, which found that the IMF was “not as effective as it needed to be” in fulfilling its responsibilities for exchange rate surveillance in the period 1999–2005. While acknowledging the inherent complexity of providing exchange rate policy advice, including the lack of professional consensus on many of the key issues, the evaluation observed serious weaknesses in the IMF’s work on key analytical issues and in its engagement with members. The update finds that the IMF has substantially overhauled its approach to exchange rate policy advice since 2007. Key steps taken include: adoption of a more comprehensive approach to exchange rate surveillance under the 2012 Integrated Surveillance Decision; development of enhanced analytical tools; a new institutional view on capital flows; and introduction of the annual External Sector Report that provides an integrated picture of the external balances of major economies. The IMF continues to work on further enhancements of its approach. Nonetheless, the update concludes that challenges remain that impact the effectiveness of the IMF’s work in an area central to its mandate. The approach for assessing external balances and exchange rates continues to be contentious, in part reflecting differing views across the membership about the process of external adjustment. There are also ongoing questions in other areas, including considerations for exchange rate regime choice, attention to policy spillovers, the institutional view on capital flows, and data availability. The update suggests that the persistence of key issues identified in 2007 merits a full evaluation by the IEO.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498324398 Total Pages :58 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis The Revised EBA-Lite Methodology by : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Download or read book The Revised EBA-Lite Methodology written by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-07-03 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Methodology review identified three broad areas for improving the EBA-Lite methodology: (1) expanding the fundamentals and policy determinants in the CA and REER regressions to better capture the external balance of EBA-Lite countries; (2) identifying alternatives to regression models for external assessments of large exporters of exhaustible commodities; and (3) a revised approach for the assessment of external sustainability in highly indebted economies. Accordingly, the revised methodology consists of three modules: 1) Regression Module 2) Module for External Assessments of Exporters of Exhaustible Commodities 3) Module for the Assessment of External Sustainability
Author :International Monetary Fund Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1484370465 Total Pages :147 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis External Sector Report, July 2018 by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book External Sector Report, July 2018 written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-23 with total page 147 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The External Sector Report presents a methodologically consistent assessment of the exchange rates, current accounts, reserves, capital flows, and external balance sheets of the world’s largest economies. The 2018 edition includes an analytical assessment of how trade costs and related policy barriers drive excess global imbalances.
Author :International Monetary Fund. European Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1475531524 Total Pages :63 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (755 download)
Book Synopsis Ireland by : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Download or read book Ireland written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-03-25 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Ireland enjoyed strong growth in 2014, at about 5 percent year over year, led by exports and investment. Solid job creation has brought the unemployment rate down to 10.5 percent, from a peak of 15 percent three years ago. These positive economic developments drove higher than expected growth in revenues, helping bring the fiscal deficit down to an estimated 3.9 percent of GDP in 2014 despite some spending overruns. Looking to 2015, Ireland’s growth is expected to remain robust, at about 3.5 percent, bolstered by the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing. Consumption is beginning to support activity, aided by the impact of falling energy prices on real incomes.
Book Synopsis External Assessments in Special Cases by : Anna Ter-Martirosyan
Download or read book External Assessments in Special Cases written by Anna Ter-Martirosyan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-01-17 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: External Assessments in Special Cases presents the pilot External Balances Assessment methodology developed by IMF staff for estimating current account and exchange rate gaps for a group of advanced and emerging market economies, and discusses modifications to take account of special cases. Different approaches to external assessments for countries with special circumstances are evaluated, and some tools presented that could be used to inform sound judgment on the part of those conducting such assessments.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498322751 Total Pages :116 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis External Sector Report, July 2019 by : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Download or read book External Sector Report, July 2019 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-07-17 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The IMF’s 2019 External Sector Report shows that global current account balances stand at about 3 percent of global GDP. Of this, about 35–45 percent are now deemed excessive. Meanwhile, net credit and debtor positions are at historical peaks and about four times larger than in the early 1990s. Short-term financing risks from the current configuration of external imbalances are generally contained, as debtor positions are concentrated in reserve-currency-issuing advanced economies. An intensification of trade tensions or a disorderly Brexit outcome—with further repercussions for global growth and risk aversion—could, however, affect other economies that are highly dependent on foreign demand and external financing. With output near potential in most systemic economies, a well-calibrated macroeconomic and structural policy mix is necessary to support rebalancing. Recent trade policy actions are weighing on global trade flows, investment, and growth, including through confidence effects and the disruption of global supply chains, with no discernible impact on external imbalances thus far.
Book Synopsis 2015 External Sector Report by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book 2015 External Sector Report written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-29 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After narrowing modestly in 2013, the global scale of current account imbalances, and of excess imbalances, held steady in 2014. Over the last several years, while the country composition of imbalances has rotated somewhat, overall there has been little progress on reducing excess imbalances. Excess deficits narrowed in some cases, but widened in others; progress on reducing excess surpluses has stalled. An unfinished policy agenda to reduce excess imbalances remains. Efforts by both surplus and deficit economies would be mutually reinforcing and support growth. Several significant recent developments will affect external positions in 2015: sharply lower oil prices, cyclical divergence and different monetary policies among the major economies, and related currency movements. Those developments do not overturn the previous pattern of excess imbalances and associated policy agenda, but they will have significant effects and raise new issues.
Book Synopsis The Current Account Income Balance: External Adjustment Channel Or Vulnerability Amplifier? by : Mr. Alberto Behar
Download or read book The Current Account Income Balance: External Adjustment Channel Or Vulnerability Amplifier? written by Mr. Alberto Behar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-05-27 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In terms of size, the net income balance (IB) is comparable to the trade balance (TB) for many countries. Yet the role of the IB in mitigating external vulnerabilities or complicating external adjustment remains underexplored. This paper studies the role of the IB in stabilizing or destabilizing the current account over the cycle and in crises. Our results show that, due to a negative correlation with the TB, the IB significantly dampens the time series volatility of the current account for most countries. However, the IB generally does not improve during crisis episodes, so current account adjustment occurs entirely through improvements in the TB. The paper also estimates IB semi-elasticities with respect to the exchange rate (ER). Semi-elasticities are small for most countries, so the IB is generally not a significant channel through which the ER stabilizes the current account, and trade-based semi-elasticities are, with some important exceptions, good proxies for current account semi-elasticities used in external sector assessments.
Book Synopsis Mauritius by : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Download or read book Mauritius written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-04-29 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2019 Article IV Consultation discusses that Mauritius is pursuing an ambitious strategy to foster inclusive growth and reach the high-income country milestone. Several structural challenges, notably, a shortage of suitably skilled workers, an aging population, and declining productivity and cost competitiveness confront Mauritius in meeting these goals. The discussions focused on preserving fiscal sustainability, regaining external competitiveness, and maintaining financial integrity and stability. Several steps have been undertaken to boost skill development, improve the business climate, and build innovation capacity. On the expenditure side, economic activity is expected to be spurred in the near term by public spending on infrastructure projects and sustained in the medium term as those projects and productivity-enhancing reforms improve private-sector competitiveness. It is recommended to pursue fiscal consolidation from the forthcoming budget FY2019/20 to build fiscal credibility and set public debt firmly on a declining path into the medium term.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498342914 Total Pages :36 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis 2014 Triennial Surveillance Review - Review of IMF Surveillance Products by : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Download or read book 2014 Triennial Surveillance Review - Review of IMF Surveillance Products written by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-07-30 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NULL
Author :International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1475556462 Total Pages :128 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (755 download)
Book Synopsis Honduras by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Download or read book Honduras written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-11-22 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the real output of Honduras in 2015 grew at 3.6 percent, slightly higher than projected. From the demand side, growth was supported by the recovery in private consumption—which responded positively to a reduction in gasoline prices and strong remittances inflows—and a boost in investment. On the supply side, the recovery in manufacturing and agriculture supported greater activity. The outlook for 2016 remains favorable. Real GDP through the second quarter of 2016 grew by 4.1 percent (year over year) broadly consistent with IMF staff projection of 3.6 percent for 2016. This projected growth performance is supported by scaled up public infrastructure investment and a supportive monetary policy stance.
Author :INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1513576674 Total Pages :110 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (135 download)
Book Synopsis External Sector Report 2021 by : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND.
Download or read book External Sector Report 2021 written by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-08-02 with total page 110 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Produced since 2012, the IMF’s annual External Sector Report analyzes global external developments and provides multilaterally consistent assessments of external positions, including current accounts, real exchange rates, external balance sheets, capital flows, and international reserves, of the world’s largest economies, representing over 90 percent of global GDP. Chapter 1 discusses the evolution of global external positions in 2020, external developments throughout the COVID-19 crisis, and policy priorities for reducing excess imbalances over the medium term. Chapter 2 analyzes how the unprecedented fiscal support provided in response to the COVID-19 crisis has affected external positions at the individual and global level. It also focuses on how withdrawal of such support will impact external positions in the medium term. Chapter 3, “Individual Economy Assessments,” provides details on the different aspects of the overall external assessment and associated policy recommendations for 30 economies. This year’s report and associated external assessments are based on the latest vintage of the External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology and on data and IMF staff projections as of June 30, 2021.
Book Synopsis Guidance Note for Surveillance Under Article IV Consultations by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Guidance Note for Surveillance Under Article IV Consultations written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-03-20 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This note provides country teams with guidance on bilateral and multilateral surveillance in the context of Article IV consultations. It covers the following issues: Focus on stability. Stability is the organizing principle of surveillance. Article IV consultations should focus on the conduct of economic and financial policies pursued by members to promote present and prospective domestic and balance of payments stability, as well as global economic and financial stability. For the latter, Article IV consultations should discuss spillovers from members’ economic and financial policies that may significantly affect global stability, including alternative policy options that would minimize their adverse impact. Operational guidance. The note provides detailed guidance, suggestions and references in areas covered in surveillance including risks and spillovers, fiscal policy, macrofinancial and monetary policy, BOP stability, structural policies and data issues. Communication and Engagement. Effective two-way communication is key to surveillance, including with the authorities (to help staff’s advice get traction), the Executive Board (to support effective peer review), and the public and other stakeholders (to gain support for necessary policy adjustments). Surveillance messages need to be clear, concise, and focused. The Fund needs to be evenhanded, in line with the principle of uniformity of treatment, for surveillance to command the confidence of the membership. Process and formal requirements. A number of procedures, rules, and requirements are summarized in this note.
