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Author : Daisuke Ikeda
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (78 download)
Download or read book The Effects of Demographic Changes on the Real Interest Rate in Japan written by Daisuke Ikeda and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Mr.Fei Han
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484396235
Total Pages : 31 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)
Download or read book Demographics and the Natural Rate of Interest in Japan written by Mr.Fei Han and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-02-15 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Japan’s aging and shrinking population could lower the natural rate of interest and, together with low inflation expectations, challenge the Bank of Japan’s efforts to reflate the economy. This paper uses a semi-structural model to estimate the impact of demographics on the natural rate in Japan. We find that demographic change has a significantly negative impact on the natural rate by lowering trend potential growth. We also find that the negative impact has been increasing over time amid stronger demographic headwinds. These findings highlight the importance of boosting potential growth to offset the negative demographic impact and lift the natural rate in Japan.
Author : Mr.Serkan Arslanalp
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484370309
Total Pages : 23 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)
Download or read book Demographics and Interest Rates in Asia written by Mr.Serkan Arslanalp and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-27 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Demographic developments have been regarded as one important cause of the long-term movement in global interest rates. This paper provides empirical evidence of the relationship between demographics and interest rates over a wide sample of advanced and emerging market economies. It also finds that capital account openness limits the direct sensitivity of a country’s interest rates to its own demographics. The results suggest that future demographic developments will continue to apply downward pressure on the interest rates in Asia which foresees a rapid aging.
Author : Charles Goodhart
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030426572
Total Pages : 260 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (34 download)
Download or read book The Great Demographic Reversal written by Charles Goodhart and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-08-08 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This original and panoramic book proposes that the underlying forces of demography and globalisation will shortly reverse three multi-decade global trends – it will raise inflation and interest rates, but lead to a pullback in inequality. “Whatever the future holds”, the authors argue, “it will be nothing like the past”. Deflationary headwinds over the last three decades have been primarily due to an enormous surge in the world’s available labour supply, owing to very favourable demographic trends and the entry of China and Eastern Europe into the world’s trading system. This book demonstrates how these demographic trends are on the point of reversing sharply, coinciding with a retreat from globalisation. The result? Ageing can be expected to raise inflation and interest rates, bringing a slew of problems for an over-indebted world economy, but is also anticipated to increase the share of labour, so that inequality falls. Covering many social and political factors, as well as those that are more purely macroeconomic, the authors address topics including ageing, dementia, inequality, populism, retirement and debt finance, among others. This book will be of interest and understandable to anyone with an interest on where the world’s economy may be going.
Author : Mr.Niklas J Westelius
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475569599
Total Pages : 18 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)
Download or read book The Impact of Demographics on Productivity and Inflation in Japan written by Mr.Niklas J Westelius and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-01-18 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is Japan’s aging and, more recently, declining population hampering growth and reflation efforts? Exploiting demographic and economic variation in prefectural data between 1990 and 2007, we find that aging of the working age population has had a significant negative impact on total factor productivity. Moreover, prefectures that aged at a faster pace experienced lower overall inflation, while prefectures with higher population growth experienced higher inflation. The results give strong support to the notion that demographic headwinds can have a non-trivial impact on total factor productivity and deflationary pressures.
Author : Mr.Fei Han
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781498301206
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (12 download)
Download or read book Demographics and the Natural Rate of Interest in Japan written by Mr.Fei Han and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Mr.Jong-Won Yoon
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 149839678X
Total Pages : 31 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)
Download or read book Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy written by Mr.Jong-Won Yoon and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-11-24 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The ongoing demographic changes will bring about a substantial shift in the size and the age composition of the population, which will have significant impact on the global economy. Despite potentially grave consequences, demographic changes usually do not take center stage in many macroeconomic policy discussions or debates. This paper illustrates how demographic variables move over time and analyzes how they influence macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, inflation, savings and investment, and fiscal balances, from an empirical perspective. Based on empirical findings—particularly regarding inflation—we discuss their implications on macroeconomic policies, including monetary policy. We also highlight the need to consider the interactions between population dynamics and macroeconomic variables in macroeconomic policy decisions.
Author : Mr.Paul R. Masson
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451854536
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)
Download or read book Effects of Long-Run Demographic Changes in a Multi-Country Model written by Mr.Paul R. Masson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-12-01 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The macroeconomic effects of population aging are explored using data for the G-7 countries and Australia. The link between changes in birth and mortality rates on the one hand, and dependency ratios on the other, is first discussed, then empirical evidence on the effects of dependency ratios on net foreign asset positions and on consumption is presented. Simulations of changes in dependency ratios are then reported, using demographic projections to the year 2025. Finally, the plausibility of the implied changes in net foreign asset positions is discussed.
Author : Shigeru Fujita (Economist)
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 35 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (125 download)
Download or read book Aging and the Real Interest Rate in Japan written by Shigeru Fujita (Economist) and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores a causal link between aging of the labor force and declining trends in the real interest rate in Japan. We develop a search/matching model that features heterogeneous workers with respect to their ages and firm-specific skills. Using the model, we examine the long-run implications of the sharp drop in labor force entry in the 1970s. We show that the changes in the demographic structure induce significant low-frequency movements in per capita consumption growth and the real interest rate. The model suggests that aging of the labor force accounts for 40 percent or more of the declines in the real interest rate observed between the 1980s and 2000s in Japan. We also examine the impacts of other long-term developments such as a slowdown of TFP growth and higher shares of female and non-regular workers.
Author : Takatoshi Ito
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226386880
Total Pages : 403 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (263 download)
Download or read book The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2010-10-15 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent studies show that almost all industrial countries have experienced dramatic decreases in both fertility and mortality rates. This situation has led to aging societies with economies that suffer from both a decline in the working population and a rise in fiscal deficits linked to increased government spending. East Asia exemplifies these trends, and this volume offers an in-depth look at how long-term demographic transitions have taken shape there and how they have affected the economy in the region. The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia assembles a group of experts to explore such topics as comparative demographic change, population aging, the rising cost of health care, and specific policy concerns in individual countries. The volume provides an overview of economic growth in East Asia as well as more specific studies on Japan, Korea, China, and Hong Kong. Offering important insights into the causes and consequences of this transition, this book will benefit students, researchers, and policy makers focused on East Asia as well as anyone concerned with similar trends elsewhere in the world.
Author : David Bloom
Publisher : Rand Corporation
ISBN 13 : 0833033735
Total Pages : 127 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (33 download)
Download or read book The Demographic Dividend written by David Bloom and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2003-02-13 with total page 127 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is long-standing debate on how population growth affects national economies. A new report from Population Matters examines the history of this debate and synthesizes current research on the topic. The authors, led by Harvard economist David Bloom, conclude that population age structure, more than size or growth per se, affects economic development, and that reducing high fertility can create opportunities for economic growth if the right kinds of educational, health, and labor-market policies are in place. The report also examines specific regions of the world and how their differing policy environments have affected the relationship between population change and economic development.
Author : Shigeru Fujita
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (117 download)
Download or read book Declining Trends in the Real Interest Rate and Inflation written by Shigeru Fujita and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Robert Dekle
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 82 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book Demographic Density, Per Capita Consumption, and the Japanese Saving-investment Balance written by Robert Dekle and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Dongchul Cho
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1788110447
Total Pages : 339 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (881 download)
Download or read book Economic Stagnation in Japan written by Dongchul Cho and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2018-01-26 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Japan’s dramatic transformation from economic success to economic stagnation offers important policy lessons to advanced countries everywhere that are struggling with stagnation. The term ‘Japanization’ is often used by economists to describe long-term stagnation and deflation. Symptoms include high unemployment, weak economic activity, interest rates near zero, quantitative easing, and population aging. In the global context, what can governments do to mitigate the downward trends experienced by Japan? This judiciously timed book investigates in depth the causes of Japan’s ‘lost decades’ versus the real recovery achieved by the United States, and the lessons that can be learned.
Author : Kohei Wada
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 9784431548300
Total Pages : 100 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (483 download)
Download or read book The Economic Impact of Population Decline and Aging in Japan written by Kohei Wada and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-11-05 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite the remarkably serious problems caused by aging and population decline in Japan, there are very few books that inform the world about them in English. Through this book, a Japanese economic demographer clearly shows the various economic consequences of population problems in Japan, especially the impacts of continuing ultra-low fertility and the world’s highest life expectancy in the post-demographic transition phase. The explanation is at a basic level but covers the overall economic issues including labor, capital, technical progress, consumption, savings and investment from a demographic perspective. Finally, some remedies for economic growth in Japan are proposed. Because economic policies are expected to have short-term effects while demographic ones to increase the fertility rate need some time to take effect, earlier books about the Japanese economy have hardly ever dealt with demographic policies. Furthermore, this book directly addresses the integrated economic and demographic policies appropriate to Japan. These are different from the French natalistic social policy, the Scandinavian policy of a work–life balance or the immigration policy in Australia or the United States. This book emphasizes the power of local communities in Japan as a part of East Asia. In this sense, the book provides a new key to readers who are interested in the future Japanese economy and population.
Author : Carlos de Carvalho
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (958 download)
Download or read book Demographics and Real Interest Rates written by Carlos de Carvalho and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Mr.Paul R. Masson
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451929552
Total Pages : 32 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (519 download)
Download or read book Macroeconomic Effects of Prelected Population Aging in Industrial Countries written by Mr.Paul R. Masson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1990-01-01 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The effects of population aging are examined with the aid of a theoretical model and simulations of MULTIMOD. An older population will consume more of aggregate disposable income, require higher government expenditure, and decrease labor supply. These effects should raise real interest rates and lower the capital stock and output. Effects on current balances will depend on the relative speed and extent of aging. Simulations of projected demographic changes suggest that by 2025, real interest rates would be increased by several percentage points and net foreign assets increased in the United States, and decreased in Japan and Germany, as a result.
