The Effect of Shocks to Labour Market Flows on Unemployment and Participation Rates

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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (139 download)

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Book Synopsis The Effect of Shocks to Labour Market Flows on Unemployment and Participation Rates by : Robert Dixon

Download or read book The Effect of Shocks to Labour Market Flows on Unemployment and Participation Rates written by Robert Dixon and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents an analysis of labour market dynamics, in particular of flows in the labour market and how they interact and affect the evolution of unemployment rates and participation rates, the two main indicators of labour market performance. Our analysis has two special features. First, apart from the two labour market states - employment and unemployment - we consider a third state - out of the labour force. Second, we study net rather than gross flows, where net refers to the balance of flows between any two labour market states. Distinguishing a third state is important because the labour market flows to and from that state are quantitatively important. Focussing on net flows simplifies the complexity of interactions between the flows and allows us to perform a dynamic analysis in a structural vector-autoregression framework. We find that a shock to the net flow from unemployment to employment drive the unemployment rate and the participation rate in opposite directions while a shock to the net flow from not in the labour force to unemployment drives the rates in the same direction.

Business Cycle Characteristics of the Australian Labour Market with an Endogenous Participation Rate

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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 76 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (966 download)

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Book Synopsis Business Cycle Characteristics of the Australian Labour Market with an Endogenous Participation Rate by : Andrew Evans

Download or read book Business Cycle Characteristics of the Australian Labour Market with an Endogenous Participation Rate written by Andrew Evans and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We use a SVAR model to analyse gross flows of workers between the states of employment, unemployment and non-participation in the Australian labour market. We determine the cyclicality of stocks, gross flows and state transition rates by examining their responses to business cycle shocks. We use the derived cyclicality of transition rates to characterise labour force inflows and outflows as being consistent in aggregate with either the Discouraged-Worker Effect or the Added-Worker Effect. We find evidence that the total participation rate is procyclical which means that the Discouraged-Worker Effect is dominant overall, but also find that the Added-Worker Effect is dominant in several particular types of transition. We also apply shocks to gross flows between employment and unemployment and find that unemployment inflows are more important than outflows to the evolution of the unemployment rate. We find that participation decisions make only a small contribution to unemployment relative to flows between employment and unemployment.

Aggregate Shocks and Labor Market Fluctuations

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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Aggregate Shocks and Labor Market Fluctuations by : Helge Braun

Download or read book Aggregate Shocks and Labor Market Fluctuations written by Helge Braun and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This paper evaluates the dynamic response of worker flows, job flows, and vacancies to aggregate shocks in a structural vector autoregression. We identify demand, monetary, and technology shocks by imposing sign restrictions on the responses of output, inflation, the interest rate, and the relative price of investment. No restrictions are placed on the responses of job and worker flows variables. We find that both investment-specific and neutral technology shocks generate responses to job and worker flows variables that are qualitatively similar to those induced by monetary and demand shocks. However, technology shocks have more persistent effects. The job finding rate largely drives the response of unemployment, though the separation rate explains up to one third. For job flows, the destruction margin is more important than the creation margin in driving employment growth. Measuring reallocation from job flows, we find that monetary and demand shocks do not have significant effects on cumulative job reallocation, whereas expansionary technology shocks have mildly negative effects. We also estimate shock-specific matching functions. Allowing for a break in 1984:Q1 shows considerable subsample differences in matching elasticities and relative shock-specific efficiency"--Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis web site.

Uncertainty and Unemployment

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498356303
Total Pages : 26 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty and Unemployment by : Sangyup Choi

Download or read book Uncertainty and Unemployment written by Sangyup Choi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-02-23 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a “wait-and-see” mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors.

Okun's Law

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475585748
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Okun's Law by : Laurence M. Ball

Download or read book Okun's Law written by Laurence M. Ball and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-14 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper asks how well Okun’s Law fits short-run unemployment movements in the United States since 1948 and in twenty advanced economies since 1980. We find that Okun’s Law isa strong and stable relationship in most countries, one that did not change substantiallyduring the Great Recession. Accounts of breakdowns in the Law, such as the emergence of“jobless recoveries,” are flawed. We also find that the coefficient in the relationship—the effect of a one percent change in output on the unemployment rate—varies substantially across countries. This variation is partly explained by idiosyncratic features of national labormarkets, but it is not related to differences in employment protection legislation.

Sticky Feet

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Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464802637
Total Pages : 123 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)

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Book Synopsis Sticky Feet by : Claire H. Hollweg

Download or read book Sticky Feet written by Claire H. Hollweg and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2014-07-03 with total page 123 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report quantifies labor mobility costs in developing countries and simulates the implied adjustment paths of employment and wages following a change in trade policy. High mobility costs are shown to reduce the potential gains to trade reform.

Links Between Labor Supply and Unemployment

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)

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Book Synopsis Links Between Labor Supply and Unemployment by : Etienne Wasmer

Download or read book Links Between Labor Supply and Unemployment written by Etienne Wasmer and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses the various causal relations between unemployment and participation to the labor market, notably for groups with elastic labor supply such as women. A flow model of labor market participation is used to describe how various exogenous variations jointly affect unemployment and participation. Empirical tests based on time-series of OECD countries are proposed. Notably, the model is used to determine short-run identification restrictions of a structural VAR. It concludes that, in some countries, fast rising female participation may have had a moderate short and medium run impact on unemployment rates. A variance decomposition exercise indicates that, in Continental Europe, participation is driven in the short run by unemployment shocks, while in the U.S., it is driven by participation shocks, interpreted as demography or immigration. Unemployment in Europe is driven in the short run by participation shocks while in the U.S., it is driven by unemployment shocks.

Essays on Labor Markets, Monetary Policy, and Uncertainty

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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 276 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (14 download)

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Book Synopsis Essays on Labor Markets, Monetary Policy, and Uncertainty by : Neil Ware White (IV)

Download or read book Essays on Labor Markets, Monetary Policy, and Uncertainty written by Neil Ware White (IV) and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation examines the impacts on the labor market of monetary policy and macroeconomic uncertainty. The first chapter examines how monetary policy shocks in the U.S. affect the flows of workers among three labor market categories--employment, unemployment, and non-participation--and assesses each flow's relative importance to changes in labor market "stock'' variables like the unemployment rate. I find that job loss accounts for the largest portion of monetary policy's effect on labor markets. I develop a New Keynesian model that incorporates these channels and show how a central bank can achieve welfare gains from targeting job loss, rather than output, in an otherwise standard Taylor rule. The second chapter examines the role of monetary policy in "job polarization.'' I argue that contractionary monetary policy has accelerated the decline of employment in routine occupations, which largely affected workers with a high-school degree but no college. In part by disproportionately affecting industries with high shares of routine occupations, contractionary monetary policy shocks lead to large and persistent shifts away from routine employment. Expansionary shocks, on the other hand, have little effect on these industries. Indeed, monetary policy's effect on overall employment is concentrated in routine jobs. These results highlight monetary policy's role in generating fluctuations not only in the level of employment, but also the composition of employment across occupations and industries. The third chapter introduces new direct measures of uncertainty derived from the Michigan Survey of Consumers. The series underlying these new measures are more strongly correlated with economic activity than many other series that are the basis for uncertainty proxies. The survey also facilitates comparison with response dispersion or disagreement, a commonly used proxy for uncertainty in the literature. Dispersion measures have low or negative correlation with direct measures of uncertainty and often have causal effects of opposite sign, suggesting that they are poor proxies for uncertainty. For the measures based on series most closely correlated with economic activity, positive uncertainty shocks are mildly expansionary. This result is robust across identification and estimation strategies and is consistent with "growth options'' theories of the effects of uncertainty.

Effects of Regional Labour Markets on Migration Flows, by Education Level

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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)

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Book Synopsis Effects of Regional Labour Markets on Migration Flows, by Education Level by : Fredrik Carlsen

Download or read book Effects of Regional Labour Markets on Migration Flows, by Education Level written by Fredrik Carlsen and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: European economies display large variations in unemployment rates across regions as well as between education groups. Insufficient labour mobility is widely believed to contribute to higher regional disparities and overall unemployment, but few studies have compared mobility responses of different education groups to regional shocks. This paper employs administrative registers covering the entire Norwegian population to compute annual time series from 1994 to 2004 of migration flows and regional labour market conditions by education level for 90 travel-to-work areas. We find that regional disparities in unemployment rates are decreasing in education level, whereas the response of migration flows to regional unemployment shocks is increasing in education level. The results suggest that low regional mobility of low-educated workers may contribute to higher regional disparities and higher overall unemployment among the low educated.

Labor Markets and Business Cycles

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Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400835232
Total Pages : 189 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Labor Markets and Business Cycles by : Robert Shimer

Download or read book Labor Markets and Business Cycles written by Robert Shimer and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2010-04-12 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Labor Markets and Business Cycles integrates search and matching theory with the neoclassical growth model to better understand labor market outcomes. Robert Shimer shows analytically and quantitatively that rigid wages are important for explaining the volatile behavior of the unemployment rate in business cycles. The book focuses on the labor wedge that arises when the marginal rate of substitution between consumption and leisure does not equal the marginal product of labor. According to competitive models of the labor market, the labor wedge should be constant and equal to the labor income tax rate. But in U.S. data, the wedge is strongly countercyclical, making it seem as if recessions are periods when workers are dissuaded from working and firms are dissuaded from hiring because of an increase in the labor income tax rate. When job searches are time consuming and wages are flexible, search frictions--the cost of a job search--act like labor adjustment costs, further exacerbating inconsistencies between the competitive model and data. The book shows that wage rigidities can reconcile the search model with the data, providing a quantitatively more accurate depiction of labor markets, consumption, and investment dynamics. Developing detailed search and matching models, Labor Markets and Business Cycles will be the main reference for those interested in the intersection of labor market dynamics and business cycle research.

Hysteresis and Business Cycles

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513536990
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Hysteresis and Business Cycles by : Ms.Valerie Cerra

Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

Aging and the Macroeconomy

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Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309261961
Total Pages : 230 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (92 download)

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Book Synopsis Aging and the Macroeconomy by : National Research Council

Download or read book Aging and the Macroeconomy written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-01-10 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The United States is in the midst of a major demographic shift. In the coming decades, people aged 65 and over will make up an increasingly large percentage of the population: The ratio of people aged 65+ to people aged 20-64 will rise by 80%. This shift is happening for two reasons: people are living longer, and many couples are choosing to have fewer children and to have those children somewhat later in life. The resulting demographic shift will present the nation with economic challenges, both to absorb the costs and to leverage the benefits of an aging population. Aging and the Macroeconomy: Long-Term Implications of an Older Population presents the fundamental factors driving the aging of the U.S. population, as well as its societal implications and likely long-term macroeconomic effects in a global context. The report finds that, while population aging does not pose an insurmountable challenge to the nation, it is imperative that sensible policies are implemented soon to allow companies and households to respond. It offers four practical approaches for preparing resources to support the future consumption of households and for adapting to the new economic landscape.

The Labor Market and Economic Adjustment

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451854781
Total Pages : 98 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis The Labor Market and Economic Adjustment by : Pierre-Richard Agénor

Download or read book The Labor Market and Economic Adjustment written by Pierre-Richard Agénor and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1995-11-01 with total page 98 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the role of the labor market in the transmission process of adjustment policies in developing countries. It begins by reviewing the recent evidence regarding the functioning of these markets. It then studies the implications of wage inertia, nominal contracts, labor market segmentation, and impediments to labor mobility for stabilization policies. The effect of labor market reforms on economic flexibility and the channels through which labor market imperfections alter the effects of structural adjustment measures are discussed next. The last part of the paper identifies a variety of issues that may require further investigation, such as the link between changes in relative wages and the distributional effects of adjustment policies.

Unemployment

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Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN 13 : 9780199279173
Total Pages : 678 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (791 download)

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Book Synopsis Unemployment by : Richard Layard

Download or read book Unemployment written by Richard Layard and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2005 with total page 678 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This broad survey of unemployment will be a major source of reference for both scholars and students.

The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration

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Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309444454
Total Pages : 643 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (94 download)

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Book Synopsis The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Download or read book The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2017-07-13 with total page 643 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration finds that the long-term impact of immigration on the wages and employment of native-born workers overall is very small, and that any negative impacts are most likely to be found for prior immigrants or native-born high school dropouts. First-generation immigrants are more costly to governments than are the native-born, but the second generation are among the strongest fiscal and economic contributors in the U.S. This report concludes that immigration has an overall positive impact on long-run economic growth in the U.S. More than 40 million people living in the United States were born in other countries, and almost an equal number have at least one foreign-born parent. Together, the first generation (foreign-born) and second generation (children of the foreign-born) comprise almost one in four Americans. It comes as little surprise, then, that many U.S. residents view immigration as a major policy issue facing the nation. Not only does immigration affect the environment in which everyone lives, learns, and works, but it also interacts with nearly every policy area of concern, from jobs and the economy, education, and health care, to federal, state, and local government budgets. The changing patterns of immigration and the evolving consequences for American society, institutions, and the economy continue to fuel public policy debate that plays out at the national, state, and local levels. The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration assesses the impact of dynamic immigration processes on economic and fiscal outcomes for the United States, a major destination of world population movements. This report will be a fundamental resource for policy makers and law makers at the federal, state, and local levels but extends to the general public, nongovernmental organizations, the business community, educational institutions, and the research community.

Perspectives on Labour Economics for Development

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Publisher : International Labor Office
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 308 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Perspectives on Labour Economics for Development by : Sandrine Cazes

Download or read book Perspectives on Labour Economics for Development written by Sandrine Cazes and published by International Labor Office. This book was released on 2013 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In developing countries, labour markets play a central role in determining economic and social progress since employment status is one of the key determinants of exiting poverty and promoting inclusion. Yet the reality in most developing countries is that the labour market fails to create the jobs in the formal economy that would help individuals and their families prosper. In recognition of these challenges, governments and other stakeholders in developing countries have increasingly prioritised policies and programmes to promote decent work. However, this requires navigating a range of complex issues and debates surrounding the linkages between development processes and labour market outcomes. This volume consists of three main thematic parts. Part I provides a broad overview of key issues, including characterising the employment challenge in developing countries and the link between economic growth, distribution, poverty and employment. Drawing on the literature and country examples, Part II analyses the specific topics of wages, migration and education. The final section shifts to a more normative focus, addressing labour market institutions and policies, along with systematic approaches to quantifying labour markets in developing countries. Perspectives on Labour Economics for Development is an invaluable reference for policy-makers in middle- and low-income countries as well as an ideal handbook for teachers and students of economics and development.

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780262560375
Total Pages : 409 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (63 download)

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Book Synopsis NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986 by :

Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986 written by and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 409 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: