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The Economics Of Seasonality
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Book Synopsis Economic Time Series by : William R. Bell
Download or read book Economic Time Series written by William R. Bell and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-11-14 with total page 544 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic Time Series: Modeling and Seasonality is a focused resource on analysis of economic time series as pertains to modeling and seasonality, presenting cutting-edge research that would otherwise be scattered throughout diverse peer-reviewed journals. This compilation of 21 chapters showcases the cross-fertilization between the fields of time s
Download or read book Seasonality written by Jake Bernstein and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1998-03-30 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: a groundbreaking look at trading the markets with one of the most important forecasting tools available . . . "If you've ever wondered about the validity of seasonals or how to trade them, buy this book now!" --Glen Larson, Genesis Data Services "Jake does it again. This time his extensive research really leaps out as he makes seasonal trading easy to understand and a very useful tool for any commodity trader." --Jeffrey H. Fox, Fox Investments. Is there a "holy grail" of price prediction? Traders have long been in pursuit of one, and while a handful of strategies, techniques, and methodologies have proven noteworthy, the search continues for the ultimate forecasting instrument --if one does indeed exist. The theory and methods of seasonality may well prove to be a step in the right direction to this goal. In this unique new book, a leading seasonal trading analyst examines seasonality in-depth, elucidating the concise principles, numerous advantages, and enormous potential that make it one of the most important --and effective --methods currently available for targeting futures price trends. Over the years, considerable attention has been paid to the effects of interest rates, money supply, earnings, inflation, and other key factors on stock and commodity prices. Yet, the immense impact of seasonal price tendencies has been either grossly underestimated or completely ignored. Often overlooked, but equally significant, seasonality is based on the assumption that seasonal influences cause biases in the movement of market prices. Among its many advantages, seasonality allows the trader to formulate objective decisions founded on a logical, verifiable, and operational methodology, creating a backdrop of probable market trends in most time frames and in most markets, and providing historically valid input for use as an adjunct to other analytical methods and timing indicators. The essence of seasonality is found in its lengthy history and statistically testable methodologies. However, seasonal correlations are not 100 percent foolproof. Using seasonal data to time the market involves an unavoidable degree of subjectivity --unless you have a firm grasp of seasonal timing concepts and techniques. Now, in the first resource devoted exclusively to the subject, Jake Bernstein gives you the foundation necessary to implement this powerful tool effectively and with confidence. Balancing theory and practice, Bernstein provides a thorough, real-world understanding of seasonal timing concepts and techniques. Along with results of his own extensive research, he integrates the work of numerous market analysts, such as W. D. Gann, Art Merrill, Burton Pugh, Samuel Benner, and Yale Hirsch, among others, to create a pragmatic and highly functional analytical framework. With his accessible, comprehensive coverage of significant concepts such as seasonal spread relationships, key dates, and cash tendencies, you'll be able to discern seasonal patterns in monthly and daily cash and futures data. Once the basics are firmly in place, Bernstein leads you step by step through the essential process of formulating a seasonal trading program that incorporates important timing strategies and risk management tools. An ideal overview for any trader, investor, or analyst, this lucidly written and clearly organized resource emphasizes the validity and significance of seasonality. Jake Bernstein has compiled a comprehensive guide to the effective use of seasonal concepts and methods in the futures markets. This is a major work that belongs on the shelves of all serious traders.
Book Synopsis Seasonal Adjustment Methods and Real Time Trend-Cycle Estimation by : Estela Bee Dagum
Download or read book Seasonal Adjustment Methods and Real Time Trend-Cycle Estimation written by Estela Bee Dagum and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-06-20 with total page 293 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores widely used seasonal adjustment methods and recent developments in real time trend-cycle estimation. It discusses in detail the properties and limitations of X12ARIMA, TRAMO-SEATS and STAMP - the main seasonal adjustment methods used by statistical agencies. Several real-world cases illustrate each method and real data examples can be followed throughout the text. The trend-cycle estimation is presented using nonparametric techniques based on moving averages, linear filters and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, taking recent advances into account. The book provides a systematical treatment of results that to date have been scattered throughout the literature. Seasonal adjustment and real time trend-cycle prediction play an essential part at all levels of activity in modern economies. They are used by governments to counteract cyclical recessions, by central banks to control inflation, by decision makers for better modeling and planning and by hospitals, manufacturers, builders, transportation, and consumers in general to decide on appropriate action. This book appeals to practitioners in government institutions, finance and business, macroeconomists, and other professionals who use economic data as well as academic researchers in time series analysis, seasonal adjustment methods, filtering and signal extraction. It is also useful for graduate and final-year undergraduate courses in econometrics and time series with a good understanding of linear regression and matrix algebra, as well as ARIMA modelling.
Book Synopsis Forecasting Economic Time Series by : C. W. J. Granger
Download or read book Forecasting Economic Time Series written by C. W. J. Granger and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2014-05-10 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic Theory, Econometrics, and Mathematical Economics, Second Edition: Forecasting Economic Time Series presents the developments in time series analysis and forecasting theory and practice. This book discusses the application of time series procedures in mainstream economic theory and econometric model building. Organized into 10 chapters, this edition begins with an overview of the problem of dealing with time series possessing a deterministic seasonal component. This text then provides a description of time series in terms of models known as the time-domain approach. Other chapters consider an alternative approach, known as spectral or frequency-domain analysis, that often provides useful insights into the properties of a series. This book discusses as well a unified approach to the fitting of linear models to a given time series. The final chapter deals with the main advantage of having a Gaussian series wherein the optimal single series, least-squares forecast will be a linear forecast. This book is a valuable resource for economists.
Book Synopsis The Economics of Seasonal Cycles by : Jeffrey A. Miron
Download or read book The Economics of Seasonal Cycles written by Jeffrey A. Miron and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1996 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Focuses on economic rather than purely statistical issues, looking at which of the alternative statistical models of seasonality are plausible for economic variables, and asking why seasonal fluctuations in economic variables require special treatment relative to other kinds of fluctuations.
Book Synopsis Big Data for Twenty-First-Century Economic Statistics by : Katharine G. Abraham
Download or read book Big Data for Twenty-First-Century Economic Statistics written by Katharine G. Abraham and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2022-03-11 with total page 502 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduction.Big data for twenty-first-century economic statistics: the future is now /Katharine G. Abraham, Ron S. Jarmin, Brian C. Moyer, and Matthew D. Shapiro --Toward comprehensive use of big data in economic statistics.Reengineering key national economic indicators /Gabriel Ehrlich, John Haltiwanger, Ron S. Jarmin, David Johnson, and Matthew D. Shapiro ;Big data in the US consumer price index: experiences and plans /Crystal G. Konny, Brendan K. Williams, and David M. Friedman ;Improving retail trade data products using alternative data sources /Rebecca J. Hutchinson ;From transaction data to economic statistics: constructing real-time, high-frequency, geographic measures of consumer spending /Aditya Aladangady, Shifrah Aron-Dine, Wendy Dunn, Laura Feiveson, Paul Lengermann, and Claudia Sahm ;Improving the accuracy of economic measurement with multiple data sources: the case of payroll employment data /Tomaz Cajner, Leland D. Crane, Ryan A. Decker, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, and Christopher Kurz --Uses of big data for classification.Transforming naturally occurring text data into economic statistics: the case of online job vacancy postings /Arthur Turrell, Bradley Speigner, Jyldyz Djumalieva, David Copple, and James Thurgood ;Automating response evaluation for franchising questions on the 2017 economic census /Joseph Staudt, Yifang Wei, Lisa Singh, Shawn Klimek, J. Bradford Jensen, and Andrew Baer ;Using public data to generate industrial classification codes /John Cuffe, Sudip Bhattacharjee, Ugochukwu Etudo, Justin C. Smith, Nevada Basdeo, Nathaniel Burbank, and Shawn R. Roberts --Uses of big data for sectoral measurement.Nowcasting the local economy: using Yelp data to measure economic activity /Edward L. Glaeser, Hyunjin Kim, and Michael Luca ;Unit values for import and export price indexes: a proof of concept /Don A. Fast and Susan E. Fleck ;Quantifying productivity growth in the delivery of important episodes of care within the Medicare program using insurance claims and administrative data /John A. Romley, Abe Dunn, Dana Goldman, and Neeraj Sood ;Valuing housing services in the era of big data: a user cost approach leveraging Zillow microdata /Marina Gindelsky, Jeremy G. Moulton, and Scott A. Wentland --Methodological challenges and advances.Off to the races: a comparison of machine learning and alternative data for predicting economic indicators /Jeffrey C. Chen, Abe Dunn, Kyle Hood, Alexander Driessen, and Andrea Batch ;A machine learning analysis of seasonal and cyclical sales in weekly scanner data /Rishab Guha and Serena Ng ;Estimating the benefits of new products /W. Erwin Diewert and Robert C. Feenstra.
Download or read book Season of Hope written by Alan Hirsch and published by IDRC. This book was released on 2005 with total page 305 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Offers an insight into the circumstances under which the policies were developed, implemented and reviewed, as well as a study of the outcomes. This book addresses questions such as: How could an organisation with no previous experience of governing accomplish a peaceful transition to democracy? How did they do it and where are they going?
Book Synopsis Forecasting for Economics and Business by : Gloria González-Rivera
Download or read book Forecasting for Economics and Business written by Gloria González-Rivera and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-12-05 with total page 511 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For junior/senior undergraduates in a variety of fields such as economics, business administration, applied mathematics and statistics, and for graduate students in quantitative masters programs such as MBA and MA/MS in economics. A student-friendly approach to understanding forecasting. Knowledge of forecasting methods is among the most demanded qualifications for professional economists, and business people working in either the private or public sectors of the economy. The general aim of this textbook is to carefully develop sophisticated professionals, who are able to critically analyze time series data and forecasting reports because they have experienced the merits and shortcomings of forecasting practice.
Book Synopsis Seasonality in Tourism by : Tom Baum
Download or read book Seasonality in Tourism written by Tom Baum and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2001-12-07 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seasonal variation in demand is a reality for most tourism destinations. This work provides a balanced overview of the evidence and issues relating to tourism seasonality using European, North American and Pacific Rim cases and research evidence.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Economic Forecasting by : Graham Elliott
Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-08-23 with total page 667 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. - Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications - Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications - Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
Book Synopsis Forecasting: principles and practice by : Rob J Hyndman
Download or read book Forecasting: principles and practice written by Rob J Hyndman and published by OTexts. This book was released on 2018-05-08 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Book Synopsis Seasonal Associate by : Heike Geissler
Download or read book Seasonal Associate written by Heike Geissler and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2018-12-04 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How the brutalities of working life are transformed into exhaustion, shame, and self-doubt: a writer's account of her experience working in an Amazon fulfillment center. No longer able to live on the proceeds of her freelance writing and translating income, German novelist Heike Geissler takes a seasonal job at Amazon Order Fulfillment in Leipzig. But the job, intended as a stopgap measure, quickly becomes a descent into humiliation, and Geissler soon begins to internalize the dynamics and nature of the post-capitalist labor market and precarious work. Driven to work at Amazon by financial necessity rather than journalistic ambition, Heike Geissler has nonetheless written the first and only literary account of corporate flex-time employment that offers “freedom” to workers who have become an expendable resource. Shifting between the first and the second person, Seasonal Associate is a nuanced expose of the psychic damage that is an essential working condition with mega-corporations. Geissler has written a twenty-first-century account of how the brutalities of working life are transformed into exhaustion, shame, and self-doubt.
Book Synopsis Phenology and Seasonality Modeling by : H. Lieth
Download or read book Phenology and Seasonality Modeling written by H. Lieth and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 443 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The pulse of life with the seasons is a classic theme of biology, equally cap turing every man's curiosity about early and late milestones of every year's cycle and the critical physiologist's inquiry into life's subtle signals and responses. Natural historians of ancient and renaissance time as well as today have charted the commonsense facts behind inspired traditions of poetry and practical rules for growing food and fiber. This volume brings together several ways of organizing the basic principles of phenology. These find order in the otherwise overwhelming mass of detail that captures our fleeting attention, like the daily newspaper, and then tends to fade into the overstuffed archives of history. Is this order so obvious and understandable that there is no longer any scien tific challenge to "phenology" as a tradition? Or does apparent simplicity mask a complex and ultimately baffling obstacle to the understanding of seasonality in even those few indicator plants and animals we know best, not to men tion the less known species or races making up the rest of each major land scape unit or ecosystem? Denying both these hasty opinions, we think that this volume well illustrates a range of questions and answers-from soundly established (but not trivial) doctrine to exciting inquiry about how ecosystems are organized.
Book Synopsis An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change by : Richard R. Nelson
Download or read book An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change written by Richard R. Nelson and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 1985-10-15 with total page 456 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contains the most sustained and serious attack on mainstream, neoclassical economics in more than forty years. Nelson and Winter focus their critique on the basic question of how firms and industries change overtime. They marshal significant objections to the fundamental neoclassical assumptions of profit maximization and market equilibrium, which they find ineffective in the analysis of technological innovation and the dynamics of competition among firms. To replace these assumptions, they borrow from biology the concept of natural selection to construct a precise and detailed evolutionary theory of business behavior. They grant that films are motivated by profit and engage in search for ways of improving profits, but they do not consider them to be profit maximizing. Likewise, they emphasize the tendency for the more profitable firms to drive the less profitable ones out of business, but they do not focus their analysis on hypothetical states of industry equilibrium. The results of their new paradigm and analytical framework are impressive. Not only have they been able to develop more coherent and powerful models of competitive firm dynamics under conditions of growth and technological change, but their approach is compatible with findings in psychology and other social sciences. Finally, their work has important implications for welfare economics and for government policy toward industry.
Book Synopsis Confessions of an Economic Hit Man by : John Perkins
Download or read book Confessions of an Economic Hit Man written by John Perkins and published by Berrett-Koehler Publishers. This book was released on 2004-11-09 with total page 430 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Perkins, a former chief economist at a Boston strategic-consulting firm, confesses he was an "economic hit man" for 10 years, helping U.S. intelligence agencies and multinationals cajole and blackmail foreign leaders into serving U.S. foreign policy and awarding lucrative contracts to American business.
Book Synopsis Development Economics by : Gérard Roland
Download or read book Development Economics written by Gérard Roland and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-05-23 with total page 1011 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Gerard Roland's new text, Development Economics, is the first undergraduate text to recognize the role of institutions in understanding development and growth. Through a series of chapters devoted to specific sets of institutions, Roland examines the effects of institutions on growth, property rights, market development, and the delivery of public goods and services and focuses. With the most comprehensive and up to date treatment of institutions on development, Roland explores the important questions of why some countries develop faster than others and why some fail while others are successful.
Book Synopsis Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction by : Andrew Robertson
Download or read book Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction written by Andrew Robertson and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-10-19 with total page 588 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field. - Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications - Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field - Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making - Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages
