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Author : Orazio P. Attanasio
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 52 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book The Demographic Transition in Closed and Open Economies written by Orazio P. Attanasio and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : David Bloom
Publisher : Rand Corporation
ISBN 13 : 0833033735
Total Pages : 127 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (33 download)
Download or read book The Demographic Dividend written by David Bloom and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2003-02-13 with total page 127 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is long-standing debate on how population growth affects national economies. A new report from Population Matters examines the history of this debate and synthesizes current research on the topic. The authors, led by Harvard economist David Bloom, conclude that population age structure, more than size or growth per se, affects economic development, and that reducing high fertility can create opportunities for economic growth if the right kinds of educational, health, and labor-market policies are in place. The report also examines specific regions of the world and how their differing policy environments have affected the relationship between population change and economic development.
Author : Alois Wenig
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642837891
Total Pages : 327 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (428 download)
Download or read book Demographic Change and Economic Development written by Alois Wenig and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 327 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, population economics has become increasingly popular in both economic and policy analysis. For the inquiry into the long term development of an economy, the interaction between demographic change and economic activity cannot be neglected without omitting major aspects of the problems. This volume helps to further developments in theoretical and applied demographical economics covering the issues of demographic change and economic development. The interaction between demographic change and economic development in the long run is one central issue. One conjecture is that it is mainly the relative population pressure which controls the pace of economic development. However, econometric evidence presented in the book does not support this hypothesis. Other papers deal with the relationships between fertility and business cycle fluctuations, the timing of births, the efficiency in intergenerational transfers, the role of open economies for the population issue, historical perspectives of demographic change in Hungary and an outline of recent developments of applied modelling using input-output models, programming models or econometric techniques.
Author : Hans Fehr
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 56 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book The Developed World's Demographic Transition - the Roles of Capital Flows, Immigration, and Policy written by Hans Fehr and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The developed word stands at the fore of a phenomenal demographic transition. Over the next 30 years the number of elderly in the U.S., the EU, and Japan will more than double. At the same time, the number of workers available to pay the elderly their government-guaranteed pension and health care benefits will rise by less than 10 percent. The fiscal implications of these two demographic trends are alarming. Paying promised benefits will, it appears, require a doubling or more of payroll tax rates. This paper asks if there is a silver lining in this dark cloud hanging over the developed world. Specifically, can the developed economies hope to be bailed out by either macroeconomic feedback effects of by increased migration? To address these questions, this paper develops and simulates a dynamic, intergeneration, and interregional demographic life-cycle model. The model has three regions the U.S. Japan which exchange goods and capital. The model features immigration, age-specific fertility, life span extension, life span uncertainty, bequests arising from incomplete annuitization, and intra-cohort heterogeneity. Other things equal, one would expect the aging of the developed economies to increase capital per worker as the number of suppliers of capital (the old) rises relative to the number of suppliers of labor (the young). But given the need to pay the elderly their benefits, other things are far from equal. According to our simulations, the tax hikes needed to finance benefits along the demographic transition path generate a major capital shortage that lowers real wages by 19 percent and raises real interest rates by over 400 basis points. Hence, far from mitigating the developed world's fiscal problems, macroeconomic feedback effects make matters significantly worse. The simulations also show that increased immigration does very little to mitigate the fiscal stresses facing the developed world. On the other hand, there are policies that can materially improve the developed world's long-term prospects. The one examined here is closing down, at the margin, existing government pension systems and using consumption taxes to pay off those program's accrued liabilities. This policy could be coupled with the establishment of a fully funded mandatory individual saving system. According to our simulations, this policy would impose modest welfare losses on current generations, but generate enormous welfare gains for future generations. Future Europeans and Japanese benefit the most. Their net wages almost triple, and their welfare levels double compared with the no-reform scenario"--NBER website
Author : Şefika Şule Erçetin
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 0429783361
Total Pages : 560 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (297 download)
Download or read book Economic Growth and Demographic Transition in Third World Nations written by Şefika Şule Erçetin and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-08-09 with total page 560 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents a new perspective on demographic transition, economic growth, and national development via exploration of the Third World economies. It provides a multidimensional approach to the close relationship between the concept of the chaos and complexity theory and provides a deliberate glance into the plight of policy formulation for demographic transition, economic growth, and development of Third World countries. The volume discusses the efficiency of good strategies and practices and their impact on business growth and economic growth, depending on the depth and diversity of infrastructure sector in particular and overall socioeconomic development in general. Economic Growth and Demographic Transition in Third World Nations: A Chaos and Complexity Theory Perspective covers a conglomeration of various aspects and issues related to the effect of demographic transition on socio-economic development in Third World countries, especially in the post-globalized era. It focuses on the applicability of the chaos and complexity theory in order to elicit transformational policies and aims to discuss and predict future projections of the new world of the economic growth policies.
Author : Tim Dyson
Publisher : Bloomsbury Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1848139128
Total Pages : 286 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (481 download)
Download or read book Population and Development written by Tim Dyson and published by Bloomsbury Publishing. This book was released on 2010-10-14 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The demographic transition and its related effects of population growth, fertility decline and ageing populations are fraught with controversy. When discussed in relation to the global south and the modern project of development, the questions and answers become more problematic. Population and Development offers an expert guide on the demographic transition, from its origins in Enlightenment Europe through to the rest of the world. Tim Dyson examines how, while the phenomenon continues to cause unsustainable population growth with serious economic and environmental implications, its processes have underlain previous periods of sustained economic growth, helped to liberate women from the domestic domain, and contributed greatly to the rise of modern democracy. This accessible yet scholarly analysis will enable any student or expert in development studies to understand complex and vital demographic theory.
Author : Dirk Krueger
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 64 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book On the Consequences of Demographic Change for Rates of Returns to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare written by Dirk Krueger and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper employs a multi-country large scale Overlapping Generations model with uninsurable labor productivity and mortality risk to quantify the impact of the demographic transition towards an older population in industrialized countries on world-wide rates of return, international capital flows and the distribution of wealth and welfare in the OECD. We find that for the U.S. as an open economy, rates of return are predicted to decline by 86 basis points between 2005 and 2080 and wages increase by about 4.1%. If the U.S. were a closed economy, rates of return would decline and wages increase by less. This is due to the fact that other regions in the OECD will age even more rapidly; therefore the U.S. is "importing" the more severe demographic transition from the rest of the OECD in the form of larger factor price changes. In terms of welfare, our model suggests that young agents with little assets and currently low labor productivity gain, up to 1% in consumption, from higher wages associated with population aging. Older, asset-rich households tend to lose, because of the predicted decline in real returns to capital.
Author : Marie Lechler
Publisher : diplom.de
ISBN 13 : 395489758X
Total Pages : 74 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (548 download)
Download or read book An econometrical analysis of the interdependencies between the demographic transition and democracy written by Marie Lechler and published by diplom.de. This book was released on 2014-04-01 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the effect of an exogenous demographic transition on democracy. As possible channels through which this influence makes an impact, education and per capita income and, to a lesser degree, urbanization were identified. These interdependencies were tested using pooled ordinary least squares as well as fixed effects models on the basis of panel data. In conclusion, the demographic transition affects democracy through the aforementioned channels primarily in poor countries that have experienced their demographic transition and subsequent democratization in the second half of the 20th century or later.
Author : Takatoshi Ito
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226386880
Total Pages : 403 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (263 download)
Download or read book The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2010-10-15 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent studies show that almost all industrial countries have experienced dramatic decreases in both fertility and mortality rates. This situation has led to aging societies with economies that suffer from both a decline in the working population and a rise in fiscal deficits linked to increased government spending. East Asia exemplifies these trends, and this volume offers an in-depth look at how long-term demographic transitions have taken shape there and how they have affected the economy in the region. The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia assembles a group of experts to explore such topics as comparative demographic change, population aging, the rising cost of health care, and specific policy concerns in individual countries. The volume provides an overview of economic growth in East Asia as well as more specific studies on Japan, Korea, China, and Hong Kong. Offering important insights into the causes and consequences of this transition, this book will benefit students, researchers, and policy makers focused on East Asia as well as anyone concerned with similar trends elsewhere in the world.
Author : Roberta Pace
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319327097
Total Pages : 189 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (193 download)
Download or read book Demographic Dividends: Emerging Challenges and Policy Implications written by Roberta Pace and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-07-29 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines potential economic opportunities that countries can experience when fertility rates fall and the average life expectancy of the working age population increases. It presents detailed demographic and economic analysis of middle-income countries throughout the world in order to show how these countries can take advantage of this demographic bonus. The book first traces the common link between policies that contribute to fertility transition as well as create the right kind of environment for reaping the benefit of demographic dividend. Next, it explores different countries and regions who are at different levels of development. It assesses the long term impact of gender equality on economic growth and development in Latin America; describes the life-cycle saving patterns of Mexican households; and examines demographic determinants of economic growth in BRICS. The book also offers demographic and economic analysis of the Mediterranean area, Sub-Saharan Africa, and New Zealand. The comparison between the different territorial contexts allow for the identification of three typologies of demographic dividend: the first dividend, when the working population grows faster than total population, the second dividend, as active generations get older and invest their savings in the production system of their country, and the third dividend, based on the coexistence of two populations age structure strongly contrasting. Overall, this book argues for the need to capitalize on the opportunities that come from the demographic dividend by investing heavily in education programs, training programs for the population working age, health programs, the creation of health insurance systems as well as programs to reduce or increase fertility levels.
Author : Hendrik P. van Dalen
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642770371
Total Pages : 364 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (427 download)
Download or read book Economic Policy in a Demographically Divided World written by Hendrik P. van Dalen and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic Policy in a Demographically Divided World contains the economic analysis of the consequences of demographic change and the diverging population developments in an interdependent world economy in particular. The global divergence in demographic developments gives rise to a myriadof economic and ethical problems. This topic is treated with the help of themathematical apparatus of neoclassical optimal growth models. The author tries to disentangle the basic policy issues of a demographically divided world, such as a selective immigration policy, sustainable patterns of international lending and borrowing, development aid, and dynamic optimal taxation. The most important feature of the book is that it brings together information and theories of fairly recent date to analyse a practical policy problem, viz. issues related to a world economy that is characterised by a demographic division. This stylised fact is hardly given some attention in current economic theory and the book contains with respect to this stylised fact some new results. Customers might benefit from the book by gaining intuition concerning principles of economic policy in a world characterised by demographic change.
Author : Eirliani Abdul Rahman
Publisher : Anthem Press
ISBN 13 : 1785276336
Total Pages : 152 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (852 download)
Download or read book The Demographic Dividend and the Power of Youth written by Eirliani Abdul Rahman and published by Anthem Press. This book was released on 2021-02-19 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As fertility rates decrease, a country’s working-age population grows larger relative to the young dependent population. With more people in the labor force and fewer children to support, a country has a window of opportunity for rapid economic growth if the right social and economic investments and policies are made in health, education, governance and the economy. Conversely, research shows that resource requirements to support a large population of children and youth can depress the pace of economic growth and prevent needed investments in human capital. The discourse on responding to this population growth frequently excludes the youth. The result can be an apathetic community of young people who withdraw from participation in political and democratic processes. The book is a compilation of articles that address the issue and highlight solutions from different parts of the world, from members of the Global Diplomacy Lab to external contributors: how they see their work promoting, enhancing and contributing to harvesting the demographic dividend.
Author : Alexander Ludwig
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book Demographic Change, Relative Factor Prices, International Capital Flows, and Their Differential Effects on the Welfare of Generations written by Alexander Ludwig and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Demographic change has differential impacts on the welfare of current and future generations. In a simple closed economy, aging -- a relative scarcity of young workers -- increases wages, increasing the welfare of the young. At the same time, population aging will reduce rates of return to capital, thereby reducing the welfare of asset holders who are usually older than the population average. In a global world with pension systems, however, these effects are less straightforward, since international capital flows dampen the factor price changes. Moreover, pay-as-you-go pension systems financed by payroll taxes create a wedge between net and gross wages, and their intergenerational redistribution has important additional effects on the welfare of generations. To quantify these effects, we develop a large-scale multi-country overlapping generations model with uninsurable labor productivity and mortality risk. Due to the predicted relative abundance of the factor capital, the rate of return falls between 2005 and 2050 by roughly 90 basis points. Our simulations indicate that capital flows from rapidly ageing regions to the rest of the world will initially be substantial, but that trends are reversed when households de-cumulate savings. In terms of welfare, our model suggests that young individuals with little assets and currently low labor productivity indeed gain from higher wages associated with population aging. Older, asset-rich households tend to loose [sic] because of the predicted decline in real returns to capital."--Abstract.
Author : Cristina Martinez
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319631977
Total Pages : 325 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (196 download)
Download or read book Demographic Transition, Labour Markets and Regional Resilience written by Cristina Martinez and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-10-31 with total page 325 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discusses the question of how a regional economy can develop under the influence of an ageing and declining population, and how regional development policies can help make labor markets more resilient and more inclusive. As the greatest impacts of demographic change and policy and fiscal challenges can be observed at the local level, examples from European, North American and Asian regions are combined to present a comprehensive, global range of strategic solutions from different policy contexts. The book shows how institutions, organizations and communities can enhance their pathways for sustainable development through the intelligent management of their demographic transition, and offers a synthesis of valuable lessons and strategies.
Author : Mr.Serkan Arslanalp
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484370309
Total Pages : 23 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)
Download or read book Demographics and Interest Rates in Asia written by Mr.Serkan Arslanalp and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-27 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Demographic developments have been regarded as one important cause of the long-term movement in global interest rates. This paper provides empirical evidence of the relationship between demographics and interest rates over a wide sample of advanced and emerging market economies. It also finds that capital account openness limits the direct sensitivity of a country’s interest rates to its own demographics. The results suggest that future demographic developments will continue to apply downward pressure on the interest rates in Asia which foresees a rapid aging.
Author : David R. Oxborrow
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 137 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (949 download)
Download or read book Essays on International Demographic Economics written by David R. Oxborrow and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 137 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation focuses on including realistic demographic structures in macroeconomic frameworks in order to circumvent existing modeling issues, explain current international trends, and forecast the implications of new social policies. The first chapter covers the closure of the small open economy model and a comparison of demographic structures. Closing the small open economy model has been a stumbling block in studying the dynamic implications of such models since the typical procedure of equating the after-tax return on traded bonds to the rate of time preference involves imposing constraining knife-edge conditions. This paper replaces the infinitely-lived representative agent framework with a plausible demographic structure. This yields a well-behaved macrodynamic equilibrium without imposing any knife-edge conditions. The second chapter develops a two-country overlapping generations neoclassical growth model including a realistic demographic structure for the purpose of analyzing the impact of country-level asymmetries in demographic and structural characteristics on cross-country interdependence. I find that an increase in the relative life expectancy of a population will produce a positive per-capita net foreign asset position. Furthermore, I demonstrate how cross-country differences in the rate of time preference will augment the decline of the American net foreign asset position generated by the demographic transition. Lastly, I present how an adjustment in the pension benefit of a pay-as-you-go social security structure will induce a change in the simulated net foreign asset position. Lastly, in the third chapter, I develop a modified version of the Mierau and Turnovsky (2015) model to determine the impact of the reversal of China’s state fertility policy commonly known as the “one-child policy”. In order to estimate the impact of the policy reversal on the labor market, I forecast the survival function forward 20 years to determine the old-age dependency rate. I augment the analysis by including a simulation estimating the impact of the proposed 5-year extension of the retirement age. From this analysis I develop two key results. The first is that the government will be forced to reduce the national pension benefit by 2.85 percent if they continue with their established policies. The second is that the proposed 5 year retirement age extension will be sufficient to keep the pension system solvent during the demographic transition.
Author : Christoph Borgmann
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9783540222682
Total Pages : 202 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (226 download)
Download or read book Social Security, Demographics, and Risk written by Christoph Borgmann and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume addresses the most important issues of the ongoing discussion on designing social security. It provides fundamental results for pay-as-you-go social security, covers the issues of social security during demographic transition and examines the inclusion of risk aspects into the analysis of social security. An empirical case study of Germany yields the surprising result that de facto the German public pension scheme already comprises an implicit demographic factor. This book allows a subtle understanding of how interacting risks are treated within different pension systems and thereby provides a basis for the development of innovative ways of risk sharing.
